NFL Best Bets: Props & Picks for Thanksgiving
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! May our NFL best bets, props and picks for Thanksgiving help the day.
Our staff of betting analysts have you covered with picks and props for all three games on Turkey Day. Navigate the post below for the game you're interested in.
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
I'm not really a big Jordan Love guy, but this line is too low.
The Lions have a solid pass defense, but they're favored by more than a touchdown and games in Detroit over the last two seasons have been very high-scoring. Eleven of the last 13 games have resulted in over 50 points scored.
Detroit may be middle of the pack in terms of passing yards allowed this season but outside of Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert, they've faced some of the weakest passers in the league (e.g. Jimmy Garoppolo, Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, Bryce Young, Love and Desmond Ridder). Love just faced this Detroit a few weeks ago in Green Bay and put up 246 passing yards.
I would hit this line all the way up to 240.5.
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The books have not fully adjusted to the role change for Gibbs. He out-snapped David Montgomery 35-25 last week and ran 21 pass routes.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is starting to utilize Gibbs the exact way the organization envisioned when they drafted him. Things have changed since the last time these teams met, when Gibbs played only 28 snaps while Montgomery had 32 carries.
Gibbs is heavily juiced to have four or more receptions in this game. Gibbs has nine receptions over the last two games since the backfield split has taken shape to what we will see on Thursday. Gibbs remains fresh, which has translated to him averaging 10.4 yards per reception. If he gets his implied four receptions, he should easily reach 30 yards through the air.
I'd bet this up to 30.5.
By Billy Ward
Normally, I prefer to bet on the first half to be higher-scoring in games with a wide spread. The logic is that the favored team plays aggressively until it builds a comfortable lead, then it "shortens the game" in the second half by leaning on the run and killing the clock.
However, this game is an exception. The favored Lions would love to play grind-it-out, ball-control football for 60 minutes if they can. While their Pass Rate Over Expectation has come up in recent weeks, that was largely due to injuries to their running backs forcing the issue, not a concerted effort to take to the air.
The bigger factor here, though, is the Packers. They scored 10 first-half points in Week 11, which was somehow tied for their season high. They're averaging an abysmal 5.9 first-half points per game, which ranks 31st in the league.
Surprisingly, Green Bay is also the highest-scoring second-half team in the entire NFL this season. Part of that is due to needing to chase points since the Packers spent more time trailing than protecting leads in the second half. Still, the next seven teams in second-half points per game all of winning records, so that's not the only explanation.
While their first/second half splits feel a bit fluky, it's a large enough sample size at this point to think there's something real behind it. Green Bay putting up points after halftime would also push the Lions to attack a bit more aggressively, making this a win-win for both sides.
I'd bet the second half to be higher scoring down to -115, but could also look to take the first-half under or the second-half over as alternative options.
Pick: Highest Scoring Half: Second (-105)
By Ricky Henne
I’m sure I’ve done it before, but I can’t remember betting on a wide receiver’s rushing yards. However, I’m doing just that as I like Jayden Reed’s chances to go over 2.5 yards on the ground.
First off, Green Bay will be without two of their top three running backs as Aaron Jones (knee) and Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) went down Sunday against the Chargers. Meanwhile, A.J. Dillon (groin) is listed as questionable. Things are so dire they brought back and signed James Robinson to the active roster after cutting him from the practice squad earlier this month.
As a result, I expect the Packers to get creative in the run game against the Lions. They did just that last week, drawing up three designed runs for Reed. He totaled 46 yards on those carries, including a 32-yard touchdown run. Reed also had one carry for 21 yards in Week 9’s win over the Rams.
Finally, our Pro Top Prop Projections loves this bet. They project Reed to run for 7.70 yards, giving it a 14.3% edge over its current line.
Pick: Jayden Reed Over 2.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Cody Goggin
At this point, I think that we're all aware of Sam Howell’s sack troubles. has 196 dropbacks under pressure this season, while the next closest player is at 162 (Zach Wilson).
Howell does invite a lot of this pressure on himself — he's 10th in the NFL in percentage of pressure with quarterback responsibility, per Pro Football Focus. However, Howell’s offensive line has been shaky and Washington also passes the ball more than anyone else in the league, causing Howell’s volume of pressures to be through the roof.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas has one of the most potent pass rushes in the league. The Cowboys rank second in Pro Football Focus pass rushing grade and are 1st in ESPN’s pass rush win rate metric.
Among the 237 players in the league with at least 85 pass-rushing snaps this season, Dallas has six players in the top 50 in Pro Football Focus pass rushing grade, including four in the top 30.
Leading the way of course is Micah Parsons, who ranks second, but they also have DeMarcus Lawrence (16th) and Sam Williams (24th) coming off the edge, along with Osa Odighizuwa (28th) providing pressure on the inside.
The pressures allowed by Washington’s offensive line this year have been relatively spread out, with left guard and center allowing the highest percentage. Last weekend against the Giants, only one allowed pressure came from the right side of the offensive line while eight came from the left and three more from center Tyler Larsen.
It’s no accident that Sam Howell has been sacked 50 times already this season and I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas adds another handful to that total in what may be a historic season for Howell.
This may be a bit of low-hanging fruit at -175, but I do think that Micah Parsons will be able to add to his total of ten sacks this season with at least another one against Sam Howell on Thursday. I would play this up to -190.
Pick: Micah Parsons Over 0.75 Sacks (-175)
We just got news that Cowboys RB Rico Dowdle did not practice on Tuesday, which means that Pollard might have a slight uptick in usage in a good matchup.
While the Commanders might have the worst pass defense in the league this season, their run defense hasn't been great either. Washington is giving up a solid 4.4 yards per rush.
Pollard has gotten solid volume most of the season and as 11.5-point favorites, this should be a spot where the Cowboys are running late in the game. We finally saw Pollard have a solid game last week after struggling heavily the prior 6 weeks, and he's far too talented to keep struggling.
I would hit this line all the way to 65.5.
Cooks played only 50 or more snaps once in the first five weeks of the season, and he didn't reach 35 yards receiving in any of those games.
Since Week 6, Cooks has played in five games, earning four or more targets in four of those, clearing this number each time. His 173-yard explosion in Week 10 against the Giants put a stamp on his position as the number two receiver in the pecking order for the Cowboys.
Cooks has implied odds of 63.6% (-175) at some books to have three or more receptions against the Commanders. The Washington defense is last in the league in pass defense DVOA and allows 9.7 yards per target to opposing wide receivers (31st). No defense in the league has allowed more explosive plays, as the Commanders have given up 30 chunk gains of 20+ yards through the air this season.
I'd bet this up to 37.5.
Pick: Brandin Cooks Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Ricky Henne
Who throws the most passing attempts per game (40.5) in the NFL: Sam Howell.
Who’s averaging the most interceptions per game (1.09) among quarterbacks with at least seven starts? Howell.
Who just threw three picks on Sunday? Yep, Howell again.
Now, what team’s averaging the fourth-most interceptions per game (1.10)? That’d be the Dallas Cowboys.
There’s not a lot of deep-diving required for me to bet Howell throwing over 0.5 interceptions. The Commanders will likely be on a negative game script trying to keep up with a Cowboys offense averaging the second-most points per game (30.2). The volume will assuredly be there, providing plenty of opportunities for Howell to toss a pick.
I’m not a fan of the juice, but I love the bet enough that I’m still backing it. At the very least, it's worth considering adding it to a parlay to pump up the payout a bit.
Pick: Sam Howell Over 0.5 Interceptions (-159)
By Simon Hunter
It's rare for me to love a touchdown favorite, but we bet differently on Thanksgiving. Chalk wins on this holiday. I don't know why, but that's the way it is. I stopped fighting it 12 years ago. Just bet favorites on Thanksgiving. Follow the trends, and you'll be a long-term winner on Turkey Day.
This game has some of my favorite trends…
It's a very unique spot for the Seahawks this week. If they close +7 or higher, they'd become just the sixth team over the past decade — this late into the season (11th game or later) — with this high of a straight-up (SU) win percentage (60%) to be a home 'dog of a touchdown or more to a divisional opponent. The previous five lost SU and against the spread (ATS), losing by a combined score of 191-77.
Brock Purdy has made five starts at night for the 49ers. He is 4-1 SU and ATS in those games, the best 49ers QB ATS at night over the past 20 years.
Also, night favorites are 12-4 ATS (75%) on Thanksgiving since 2005 with unders going 11-5 in those games and 7-1 in the past eight night games.
I get all of these trends from my guy Evan Abrams. For a full Week 12 breakdown, click here.
Don’t tease it or moneyline parlay it. Just take the -7. Not only are we getting a banged-up Geno Smith on a short week after a win, but we’re getting a fully healthy 49ers offense. Let’s follow the trends and take this big road favorite.
By Ricky Henne
What am I most thankful for this Thanksgiving? Friends, family and grabbing the 49ers at -7.
The 49ers aren’t just outscoring their opponents, they’re doing so in convincing fashion. Their +12.2-average scoring margin is second-best in the NFL. However, perhaps more impressive is their league-high +10.8-point average road margin, which is more than double that of 29 other teams.
On the flip side, there’s a good chance Seattle is the NFL’s most fraudulent team. The Seahawks had the fourth-easiest schedule to date, getting fat on the likes of the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals and Commanders. They also have a negative average scoring margin (-0.2), which is wild considering their cupcake schedule.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks are quite banged up entering the game on just four days' rest. Kenneth Walker is doubtful to suit up, while Geno Smith is likely to play despite an elbow injury. He may have managed to return on Sunday against the Rams after suffering the injury, but how much can you trust him against San Francisco’s pass defense that ranks sixth in DVOA?
Finally, favorites receiving the type of backing the 49ers are absolutely dominant on Thanksgiving. According to Evan Abrams, teams getting at least 60% of all bets are 22-8 ATS over the last 30 games. Public sides (51% of tickets) are 32-18 ATS over the last 50 games, while teams closing with at least 74% of tickets are 8-0 SU and ATS since 2005. The 49ers check all those boxes, getting 82% of all bets and 85% of the money as of Thanksgiving Eve.
I’m all about good processes, so this is my favorite line of the week. There are too many signs that point to San Francisco not just winning, but doing so by more than a touchdown, which is why I’m putting multiple units on it
I wouldn’t be shocked if this goes -8.5 or higher. It’s already hit that number at times this week and while I’d still bet it, I'd only but a single unit on it in that case. For now (as of 11 a.m. ET on Thanksgiving), grab 49ers -7.
Pick: 49ers -7
I expect an inspired performance from the Seattle defense on Thursday night. Their front seven is seventh in the league in adjusted line yards per rush attempt and while their basic rush defense metrics have faltered over the last month, individually they are still seventh in the league in run-stop win rate as well.
If they can limit the ground attack of the Niners to put Brock Purdy behind the sticks, their pass defense should be able to get them off the field on third downs. The Seahawks are fifth in the league in yards per attempt allowed since Week 4 despite facing the likes of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Matthew Stafford.
The 49ers defense should deliver another steady performance. The Seattle offense is banged up and even if Geno Smith plays, the 49ers can deliver the pressure needed to bother him. The Niners defense is fourth in the league in defensive pressure rate and according to Sharp Football, Smith's yards per attempt ranks 26th in the league when he is under duress.
I'd play this under down to 42.5.
Pick: Under 43.5 | Bet to 42.5
Metcalf struggled to start the season, but he has really turned it around over the last two weeks with 94 and 98 receiving yards. He's still the dominant WR in this offense and even in a tough matchup here he should thrive.
The spread is sitting at 49ers -7, which means it's likely the Seahawks will be throwing the ball late in the game. Kenneth Walker III is unlikely to play and Geno Smith looks like he should be good to go in this spot, so it's an uptick to the passing game here.
I have Metcalf projected for over 10 yards over this number, and I'd hit this all the way up to 63.5.
