NFL Best Bets Week 16 | Expert Picks, Player Props for Sunday
Our gift to you is our NFL best bets (we'll have more on Monday for Christmas, too). Our staff of bettors has picked two sides and four player props for a full Sunday slate on Christmas Eve. Click on an NFL pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1 p.m. | |
| 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:05 p.m. | |
| 4:05 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. | |
| 4:25 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Colts vs. Falcons
By Stuckey
While I'm selling the Colts at what I believe is the top of their market value, I'm also buying the Falcons after a terrible loss to the Panthers. Keep in mind that came in the final seconds in horrendous weather conditions without a trio of critical pieces in the trenches. Hopefully, right guard Chris Lindstrom, right tackle Kaleb McGary and defensive tackle David Onyemata can return as they were at least close to playing last Sunday.
Atlanta has gone 2-5 over its last seven games. However, unlike the Colts, the Falcons have simply come up on the short end of the stick countless times in close games. They've gone 1-5 in contests decided by five or fewer points over that stretch with losses by five, three (TD in the final minute), two (last-second FG), four (last-minute TD) and two (last-second FG). That's five losses by a combined 16 points — four of which came on a last-minute go-ahead score.
I'm admittedly not a fan of what head coach Arthur Smith has done this year in a number of areas, but the narrative could easily be drastically different with a few better bounces.
It's worth noting that Atlanta made another change at quarterback, going back to Taylor Heinicke. I believe he serves as an upgrade over Desmond Ridder, who threw games away with horrendous turnovers you just don't see at this level. In 2023, Ridder has thrown for 10 touchdowns with 10 interceptions and 11 fumbles. Yikes.
Heinicke gives the Falcons their best shot to attack an overrated Colts defense devoid of talent outside of Kenny Moore in the slot and a pretty talented defensive line.
Give me the Falcons laying this short price at home where they have played much better.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eOoSs7eFQo4
Colts vs. Falcons
I don't know what the Falcons are doing at this point with their running game since they should just be giving Bijan Robinson the lion's share of touches, but Tyler Allgeier continues to be heavily involved. He's gotten at least eight carries in each of the last 10 games and has hit the over at this number in seven of those.
Allgeier draws a solid matchup here against a Colts team that has a below-average run defense. Atlanta is also favored here at home, where it'd probably want to maintain a game plan that features a heavy dose of running the ball. There's a chance that Taylor Heinicke starting does change the game script slightly, but the rushing volume should absolutely still be there.
I would hit this line all the way up to 37.5.
Pick: Tyler Allgeier Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
Regardless of who is playing quarterback for the Jaguars this week, I like Ridley to go over his receiving yardage total.
Out of 118th qualifying cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus coverage grade, the Bucs' starting CBs rank 77th, 80th and 110th. Tampa Bay also blitzes at the third-highest rate in the NFL and is almost assuredly going to leave one of its overmatched secondary players one-on-one with Ridley several times throughout the game.
With Christian Kirk out of the lineup and now Zay Jones likely to miss this game due to a hamstring injury, Ridley is guaranteed to see a strong target share. Ridley has 25 targets over the last two weeks and should see a minimum of 10 targets on Sunday. Ridley's season has been filled with near misses and questionable calls that have suppressed his numbers. He also leads the NFL in pass interference penalties drawn. Jacksonville has no choice but to continue featuring him in the passing game.
Had some of those near misses or pass interference calls been completions, I doubt we would be seeing a yardage prop this low for a player in such a good matchup. The Bucs are 24th in DVOA against opposing teams' WR1 and have allowed 91 yards per game to their opponent's main target, which ranks 31st.
I wouldn't play this any higher than 62.5.
Jaguars vs. Buccaneers
By Matt Trebby
Rachaad White has gone over this total in four straight games, a span during which he has played the best football of his career.
White is averaging 93.8 rushing yards per game over his last four on 4.63 yards per carry. In his first 10 games of the season, he averaged just 45.9 yards per game on 3.26 yards per carry.
Even if White doesn’t remain so efficient, volume is on our side here. He’s averaging 20.3 carries per game over the last four. If he averages four yards per carry, he’d need 17.13 carries to hit 68.5.
The Jaguars run defense is stout, but I’m going to ride the hot hand. Sean Koerner is projecting White for 77 rushing yards, so I’d bet this up to 71.5.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins
The Cowboys offense struggled as Dak Prescott had one of the two worst games of his season in the 31-10 loss to Buffalo. If I told you before kickoff that Josh Allen would complete just seven passes in the entire game, you’d probably assume he left the game injured or had the worst game of his career. Buffalo’s elite offensive line completely dominated in the run game and at home in a home run spot for the Bills.
Miami’s offensive line injuries and inconsistent running game make it more difficult to replicate that success this week. Watch closely the status of Cowboys defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, who missed that game and is probably 50/50 to play against Miami. The Dolphins defense has faced the easiest schedule of opposing offenses in the entire NFL. When they’ve faced a good offense, the opponent has moved the ball comfortably. Kansas City scored three first-half touchdowns, while the Bills and Eagles faced little resistance.
Both of these defenses have had their numbers inflated by facing a weak schedule of opposing offenses. Both of these defenses have struggled to hold up when facing better competition. The key difference right now is the injuries along the Miami offensive line and that Dak Prescott is much more reliable from the pocket than Tua Tagovailoa when under pressure.
Dallas still has an elite pass rush and while its man-coverage scheme will certainly be tested against this Miami speed, the pass rush should get a lot more wins overall. The Cowboys are the better team marginally and catching two on the road, I’d bet them to win this game.
Cowboys vs. Dolphins
There is pretty much no matchup where Hill should be in this market at close to even money to score a TD. He has been absolutely incredible this season, scoring a TD in all but three games, one of which he got injured.
The Cowboys defense is solid, but the total in this game is over 50 and Hill is matchup-proof. Not only is he a solid threat to score from anywhere on the field, but he's also getting massive red-zone usage with 20 targets inside the 20-yard line to go along with a couple of red-zone carries.
I would hit this line all the way to -140 in this spot.
