NFL Best Bets Week 18
We have one more week in the regular season, and our staff has you covered with double-digit NFL best bets. Our staff of betting analysts has 10 spreads and totals that it's betting across both slates on Sunday afternoon, including some of the biggest games in the multiple playoff races.
Click on a pick below to navigate this post, and thank you for following along all season! Next week, the playoffs!
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs. Saints
By Simon Hunter
A divisional road 'dog fighting for its life. How do you not love the Falcons here?
The Saints are coming off what might be their best win of the season, and we couldn't have asked a better time to fade this team. Dennis Allen-coached teams are just 4-16-2 (20%) against the spread coming off a straight-up (SU) win in their last game. Also, Derek Carr is 9-26-2 ATS when favored by three points or more, including 2-14-1 ATS in his last 17 games in this spot. Since 2021, he’s 2-11-1 ATS in that scenario.
It also helps that the Falcons are coming off their worst loss of the season, a 20-point blowout loss in Chicago. So, we have a buy-low and sell-high spot that has trends to back it.
As a bonus, we get the points. Most are leaving this Atlanta team for dead, but don’t look at this as a bet backing Desmond Ridder at QB. It’s the Falcons' system as a whole. You can run the ball on the Saints, so I think we see the two-RB system play a huge role in this game for the Falcons.
Take the points and trust all the trends that tell us who this Saints team is. New Orleans might win, but it won’t be by more than three points.
Pick: Falcons +3
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Falcons vs. Saints
We've been playing NFC South divisional matchup unders all season, so why stop now?
The Saints defense cratered midseason, but has gotten healthier and rebounded, and Atlanta's offense has been stout. Both defenses have the upper hand, and NFC South division games have failed to hit 40 points in nine of 10 games this season.
Saints games are at 36 or below over half the time, with New Orleans 11-5 to the under and Atlanta 10-6 to the under. This division is horrific, and there's a chance both these teams are effectively eliminated by the fourth quarter when both offenses tend to finally kick it into gear anyway.
When in doubt, just keep betting on NFC South ineptitude. If you give me an NFC South game with a total starting with a four, I'm taking the under and not thinking twice. Get this God-forsaken division outta here.
Pick: Under 42.5 (-112)
Jaguars vs. Titans
The Jaguars stopped the bleeding with a dominant 26-0 win at home against the Panthers in Week 17 without Trevor Lawrence. The market is pricing in that Lawrence will make his return for this game and it’s a classic spot to bet against the Jaguars in a must-win spot laying a couple too many points. The first meeting between these two teams closed Jacksonville -7 in November. Even if the Jaguars won that game comfortably, there’s no way you can be higher on the Jaguars right now than you were headed into that game. Jacksonville lost four straight games and is just 2-4 since that game. If you flipped the home field, then the line would be around Jacksonville -4 here.
As bad as Tennessee has been this year, it’s not like they’ve been regularly blown out overall. The Jaguars middling pass rush shouldn’t expose the Titans poor offensive line too badly, while Tennessee has led in the fourth quarter in five of its last six games. The Titans ultimately blew the game and lost the Seahawks, Colts and Texans at home, but it’s not like Mike Vrabel won’t have his team up to give Jacksonville a tough game on Sunday. This is a chance for Tennessee to play spoiler and even if Lawrence returns, he hasn’t been healthy for weeks. The Jaguars are dead last in rushing success rate since Week 13 and that will put a ton of pressure on Lawrence to carry Jacksonville into the playoffs.
This game is a classic example of the “must-win team” vs. the “team with no motivation” trend as well.
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Jaguars vs. Titans
Tennessee's offense has struggled late in the season, but Ryan Tannehill is probably still an improvement over Levis for now and DeAndre Hopkins should be locked in and motivated with some key incentives on the line. Derrick Henry also has a great history against the Jaguars and might be playing his last game in Titans colors, so he can still perform against a strong Jacksonville run defense.
Tennessee's rush defense ranks third up the middle where Jacksonville ranks dead last and runs 60% of its attack, so that puts this all on the Jaguars passing game. If Lawrence, Kirk, and Jones all end up playing, that may be enough, but C.J. Beathard is 3-10 straight up in his career and had never won a game as a favorite until last week.
This is one of the trendiest spots on the Week 18 slate. Teams that need a win facing an eliminated team over the final two weeks are 64-100-4 ATS (39%) since 1990, and teams at a 40-to-60% win rate facing an opponent 8-to-25% worse are just 29-72-5 ATS (29%) from Week 16 forward the past two decades. Mike Vrabel is always tough as an underdog at 24-14-2 ATS as a dog of three or more (63%), and teams that just lost by 17-plus when facing an opponent that just won by 17+ are 108-69-4 ATS (61%).
The numbers all tell the same story. The Jaguars are getting too much credit in the market and the Titans have value. I think Tennessee can win this game. The Titans had been competitive all the way until last week's blowout loss, and they're the only side to play here.
This is my favorite side on the Sunday slate, with a number of key trends backing the Titans. Tennessee is much better at home and probably better with Tannehill right now. The Jaguars' only real advantage is in the passing game, and that's offset by the question marks surrounding Lawrence and the receivers.
Pick: Titans +4.5 (-105)
Broncos vs. Raiders
The Raiders have essentially been out of the playoff race for the entirety of the Antonio Pierce tenure and that hasn’t stopped the defense from performing at an elite level since he became coach. There were a few explosive plays conceded to Indianapolis last week that enabled the Colts to grab an early lead, but the Colts offense wasn’t good in that game from a success rate perspective. Indianapolis had a 40% success rate overall and a 38% early down success rate against the Raiders defense.
Denver managed a home win against Easton Stick and an entirely anemic Charger offense and I bet the Broncos last week, but the injuries on offense will be tough to overcome here. Courtland Sutton could return from a concussion in Week 18, but the Broncos are out of the playoff race and don’t have a ton of incentive to play him. Marvin Mims Jr. also picked up a hamstring injury and didn’t play in Week 17 as a result. The Broncos had a 42% success rate in the 16-9 win, they badly struggled in the red zone and it’s hard to see why this total is so high given the quarterback quality.
The Raiders offense managed just 13 points against a very middling Indianapolis defense until the final prevent drive in the final five minutes down two scores. The Raiders offense is bottom seven in success rate since Week 11.
Unless the Raiders are getting multiple defensive scores again, how is this total above the key number of 37?
Cowboys vs. Commanders
The Cowboys aren't playing quite as well as they were midseason, but there's still a massive gulf between these teams, and we saw it on Thanksgiving.
Howell is a sack-eating machine and will see nightmares against Dallas's league-best Pass Rush Win Rate. And the Cowboys offense should eat against a defense that's totally let go of the rope. Washington is worst in the league against WR1s by DVOA, so CeeDee Lamb should get what he wants, and the Commanders are second-to-last against middle runs, the one area Dallas has been quite successful. Just a boring, easy script should be enough for Dallas.
Washington has long since mailed in its season, but you always expect a big home underdog to make one final stand here in what's probably the last game for Ron Rivera and this iteration of the Commanders. But Washington has been awful in first halves all year while the Cowboys offense is far better in the first half at 7th in DVOA versus 21st, which is probably why Washington is 5-11 ATS in the first half and Dallas is 11-5.
Skip the inflated full game line. If Dallas is going to win comfortably, it'll be because the Cowboys took care of things early. Play at BetRivers to get under the key number and grab the -6.5.
Pick: Cowboys 1H -7 (-115)
Seahawks vs. Cardinals
If there's one thing that the Cardinals have made clear all season, it's that they aren't prioritizing a draft pick over winning, culture and the ability to self-scout. The team has been outspoken about their recommitment to Kyler Murray, who has returned the love for rookie head coach Jonathan Gannon. The Cardinals will be trying to win and play spoiler for Seattle's playoff chances this week. I have little concern about Arizona's Week 18 motivation.
Between Murray, James Conner and the stout offensive line with gadget weapons, the Cardinals have consistently been able to put points on the board, averaging 26 points per game over their last four. I anticipate that the Cardinals will be able to move the ball very efficiently at home and keep their defense off the field like they did against the Eagles last week.
This line was priced at +3 at pretty much every sportsbook as of Saturday night. Make sure to shop for the best number to go with it, which as of publication is -115 at either BetMGM or FanDuel. That's where I want to play this bet, as extra juice isn't juicy to me! If it moves to +2.5, then forego the spread and just look to play the Cardinals ML at anything higher than +120.
Eagles vs. Giants
The Eagles only beat the Giants by one score two weeks ago, and now we're in New York, where the Giants have been vastly better. They've been especially better on defense and actually rank in the top half of the league at home versus 30th in DVOA on the road. The pass defense is top 10 over the past six games, which will be the key against Jalen Hurts since that's the strength of this team right now.
The Giants offense has been better with Taylor at quarterback, and Darren Waller is in line for a nice game against a team that can't cover tight ends. Brian Daboll is 11-5 ATS after a loss and 7-3 ATS as a division underdog. This is New York's Super Bowl, and the Giants will want to finally beat the Eagles and end their season on a good note. Think of it as fading Philadelphia as much as betting on New York.
I also like that we get extra outs here since Philadelphia could call off the dogs mid-game if the Cowboys get out ahead, or even rest some starters from the jump. If you like this, don't wait around for a better line because the line could move drastically if Hurts, A.J. Brown and others end up sitting.
You might also consider playing a correlated parlay here and betting Giants +5.5 with a Cowboys angle. If Dallas goes up big — maybe Cowboys 1H -6.5 — the Eagles are all the more motivated to pull the plug.
Pick: Giants +5.5 (-110)
Eagles vs. Giants
The potential weather has seriously deflated the total and it’s a classic example where you can play against the early week weather reports. There’s a potential for snow and winds of 10-15 mph for this game, but the total is too low regardless at just 41. The Eagles were one of the best-run defenses in the NFL in the first half of the season, but the defensive numbers have nosedived as the pass rush and run-stopping units have worn down this year.
Arizona didn’t punt a single time in Philadelphia last week and scored a touchdown on all four of its second-half possessions. The Eagles defense is a bottom-five unit against both the run and the pass since the bye week in Week 9. The switch to Matt Patricia as defensive coordinator has led to some bizarre personnel decisions, including dropping star pass rusher Haason Reddick into coverage more than he ever has as an Eagle last week.
These two teams played on Christmas Day in Philadelphia with Tommy DeVito as the quarterback and the total closed 43.5. Tyrod Taylor is a multiple-point upgrade over DeVito and even Taylor moved the ball well in the second half against this defense. The Giants managed at least 30 yards on all four full drives in the second half on Christmas. There’s some hand-wringing about the Eagles offense, but it’s still moving the ball at an elite rate. It’s all about these two defenses being bottom five units.
Philadelphia has struggled against the blitz overall but the Giants don’t have the personnel to stop the Eagles in the run game. Even if Devonta Smith doesn’t play — I don’t expect him to — the total should be 42-43.
I wouldn't go any higher than 41.5 on this over.
Chiefs vs. Chargers
By Simon Hunter
One last awful QB matchup before we sail off into a sunset that is the NFL Playoffs.
Blaine Gabbert vs. Easton Stick. White people really got weird with baby names in the late 1990s and early 2000s. "Hey, did you see that Blaine vs. Easton game?" I blame Harry Potter.
If you can’t already tell, the Chiefs are resting most of their starters, and the Chargers' injury report was 20 names deep. Doesn’t look like Keenan Allen or Joey Bosa will play, and seven other starters are listed as doubtful. Now, mix in that both teams are starting backup QBs, and it's easy to see why this is such a low total.
I love these kinds of matchups. I was hoping to get Chargers -3, but it never got there. Luckily for us, the public has come in on the over and driven this number up from 33.5. I can see both teams struggling in the red zone and trading field goals.
The Chiefs don’t want to show anything before heading into the playoffs, and the Chargers simply have nothing to show — and half of the team has already planned where it's heading on Monday for vacation.
Don’t let the low total scare you off and take this under.
Pick: Under 35.5 (-114)
