NFL Best Bets: Sunday Wild Card Picks (January 14)
Our staff has NFL best bets on spreads and totals for what should be an electric NFL Playoffs doubleheader. Our Wild Card picks are on one side of the Packers-Cowboys spread and two overs for Rams-Lions. Click on a pick below to navigate this post.
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
| 4:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
| 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Packers vs. Cowboys
By Chris Raybon
Thanks to their surging offense, the Packers are up to 12th in overall Weighted DVOA — eight spots behind the Cowboys. The Cowboys are rightly favored — they’ll be able to score against Joe Barry’s maddeningly underachieving defense — but the Packers have enough offensive firepower to keep the score close or secure a backdoor cover if needed.
Per our Action Labs data, Sunday Wild Card/Divisional Round single-digit road dogs are 46-16-1 (74%) against the spread (ATS) since 2003, covering by 4.4 points per game.
Packers vs. Cowboys
By Cody Goggin
Things started a little rocky this year for the Green Bay Packers, but over the past month of the season they have been playing as well as just about anybody. Since its Thanksgiving win over the Lions, this Green Bay team has been humming.
Over that time period, they rank second in the league in offensive EPA per play, only narrowly behind San Francisco. Their defense has been below average all year, but when looking at the EPA Team Tiers on rbsdm.com, Green Bay is on the same level with some of the top contenders in the league over that time period, including Dallas.
Green Bay ranks sixth this year in PFF pass blocking grade and second in pass block win rate. The Cowboys’ defense has been able to generate havoc all season but the Packers' offensive line will be good enough to hold up to this pressure.
I’m sure we will hear multiple times during this game how much better the Cowboys have been at home this season than on the road. While that is certainly true, that also could just be noise across a small sample size.
Jordan Love and his group of young weapons will be entering their first playoff game, but I think they could have enough offensive firepower to stick around. In the end, I believe the Cowboys will still pull out the victory but I think Green Bay’s early-season numbers, along with the Cowboys’ pristine home record, have skewed this line further than it should be.
I like taking the Packers to cover the current 7-point spread. I wouldn’t take this if it were to drift under seven, but at this number I like backing a very dangerous underdog.
Pick: Packers +7 |
Packers vs. Cowboys
By Stuckey
You'll hear plenty about how dominant the Cowboys performed at home all season. They finished 8-0 in Jerry World, averaging over 37 points per game.
While that's impressive no matter how you slice it, Dallas faced the Patriots, Jets, Rams, Giants, Commanders, Seahawks, Eagles and Lions at home this season. Not a murderers' row of competent quarterbacks and defenses. The Cowboys also easily could've lost to the Seahawks and Lions, each of whom had the ball late with a chance to win games that were decided by one possession.
Ultimately, I played this since I project the line at under a touchdown, so I was happy to take the seven plus the hook with a Packers team that has hit its stride in playoff mode for the past few weeks. Green Bay finished just 4-5 on the road, but all five losses came by four points or fewer, and it won all three road games against NFC North opponents this season, including the Lions. Green Bay's extreme youth and inexperience may actually work in its favor against a Dallas team that has all the pressure on it to win.
The Cowboys will undoubtedly get their points at home, but Love and the Green Bay offense can keep up to stay within one possession. Also, I wouldn't be shocked if Mike McCarthy made a suboptimal in-game decision that costs the Cowboys points or a game at some point during the postseason.
Pick: Packers +7 |
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Rams vs. Lions
By Billy Ward
The only thing that's held back the Lions' offense this season has been weather conditions, and opponents unable to keep up offensively and force Detroit to stay aggressive.
Neither is going to be an issue Sunday night, as the Rams come to Ford Field in a "revenge game" for both team's quarterbacks.
Detroit games played indoors have averaged a healthy 54 points per game this season, despite home matchups with anemic offenses in the Falcons, Panthers, Raiders and Broncos dragging that number down. Detroit has averaged over 30 points itself in those 12 games.
On the other side of the ball, Matthew Stafford and the Rams' passing attack should have no problem attacking a Detroit defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed per pass play. They've been bad in the secondary even against lesser opposition, and now have to deal with Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and their former franchise quarterback in Stafford.
While both teams actually skew slightly run-heavy based on Pass Rate Over Expectation, play-callers Sean McVay and Ben Johnson will almost certainly deviate this week in order to attack their opponents' defensive weaknesses. Even with the overall lean towards the run, both teams have also played at above-average overall pace this season.
I'd take any of the 51.5s available in the market down to odds of -120.
Pick: Over 51.5 |
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Rams vs. Lions
The Rams offense has been borderline unstoppable with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua on the field together. In eight games with that quartet healthy, the Rams rank second in DVOA and average 28.5 PPG, with at least 26 points in seven of the eight games. In the last six games of the season before resting in the finale, that jumped to 31.3 PPG and they went over this total in every game.
Detroit's defense is seriously flawed and has been gashed at times, especially against top offenses like the Rams. The Lions have allowed at least 24 points in over half their games. The total here is 51.5 and rising, and this game sure looks like it will see plenty of points.
I also thought the Rams might end up the highest-scoring team of the weekend (+900, FanDuel) before games kicked off, and they're my pick as the most likely lower seed to win.
Pick: Rams Team Total Over 24.5 |
