Every week I use my NFL Power Ratings to project spreads and over/unders for every game and find the best bets. So which are still showing value in the final hours before kickoff?
Let's take a look at four picks to make on Sunday morning based on my power ratings in the following games:
- 49ers at Redskins: 1 p.m. ET
- Jaguars at Bengals: 1 p.m. ET
- Dolphins at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
- Ravens at Seahawks: 4:25 p.m. ET
Odds as of Sunday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
49ers at Redskins
PICK: Under 40
This under is popping as its -0.43 Pass/Run Funnel Model rating gets an in-sample 68.9% probability of hitting. This makes sense as the 49ers should be able to use their shutdown defense and efficient running game to bury the Redskins with ease.
Terry McLaurin looks like the real deal as he's erupted in his rookie season. The problem is that he's really this offense’s only weapon. San Francisco will be able to get away with double-teaming him since no other pass catcher will make them pay.
This is a game flow and matchup that screams under.
Jaguars at Bengals
PICK: Bengals +4.5
The Jaguars dealt Jalen Ramsey to the Rams for two first-round picks and a fourth on Tuesday. It was a move that we sort of saw coming with Ramsey sitting out due to a "back" injury. It's a short-term blow for the Jaguars, who are looking beyond 2019 to build their team of the future.
The Bengals +4.5 is one of the better plays this week.
To no surprise, the 0-6 Bengals are getting very little action with 74% of the tickets and 74% of the money pouring in on the Jaguars. Are the Bengals a bad team? Absolutely. But looking at their schedule to date, they've played four of their six games on the road, faced a fairly tough schedule and are now 0-4 in one-score games. Their Pythagorean expected record is 1.4-4.6.
This is a classic case of the public likely underestimating a very bad team. Give me the underdog here at +4.5, locking in the most valuable number against the spread.
Dolphins at Bills
PICK: Under 41.5
Life has been good since I decided to pass on taking a side on the spread in any Dolphins matchup. They're truly one of the worst football teams we've ever seen and the market has been trying to correct for that by establishing unthinkable lines such as this one.
The under is popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model, which is also aligned with my power ratings. Any game with a rating below -0.34 has gone 10-5 (66.7%) on the under this season and has an in-sample projected win rate of 65.3%.
Ravens at Seahawks
PICK: Seahawks -3
The Seahawks are popping in my Pass/Run Funnel Model with a rating of 0.87 (an in-sample predictive win rate of 65.4%). This lines up with my power ratings.
Russell Wilson is playing like an MVP and the Ravens defense is not good enough to slow him down. They've given up 340-plus passing yards to Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield while Lamar Jackson has tapered off a bit against better competition. He could be without his stud rookie WR Marquise Brown (questionable) again, which will hurt.
The Seahawks get Jarran Reed back from a six-game suspension and the timing couldn't have been better as he'll give their pass rush an instant boost.
Give me Seattle here.
