NFL Week 5 Betting Picks: Updated Odds, ATS Bets for 12 Games, In-Depth Matchup Breakdowns

DFS Plays

Mike Gesicki is my top cash-game play at tight end against a Bucs defense that allowed the third-most catches to tight ends. Gesicki has accounted for 21% of Jacoby Brissett’a targets and 24% of his completions compared to 10% of Tua Tagovailoa’s targets and none of his completions this season.

With Will Fuller (finger) out (again…), Jaylen Waddle is also a nice GPP play against the Bucs’ banged up secondary. Waddle is averaging 6.3 catches on 7.5 targets per game this season. The explosive rookie could be used on short passes as an extension of the run game against a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing an NFL-low 47.5 yards per game.

For those same reasons, the three-way quagmire of Malcolm Brown, Myles Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed is obviously a fade. Play the blitz-happy Bucs defense against Brissett instead.  The Dolphins are second in man coverage snaps.

Among Tampa Bay’s top three wideouts, Antonio Brown (52.4%) has seen a higher percentage of his targets come against zone coverage than Chris Godwin (42.9%) and Mike Evans (40.5%). Godwin and Evans are still playable in what should be a more concentrated target share with Rob Gronkowksi (rib) out, but don't sleep on the Tom Brady-to-AB connection.

Giovani Bernard will likely return, but Leonard Fournette should still dominate backfield usage against a Dolphins defense that is ranked 20th in rushing DVOA.

• Cash Plays: Mike Gesicki
• GPP Plays: Tom Brady, Leonard Fournette, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Bucs DST, Jaylen Waddle

DFS Plays

Hurts should continue to put up top-tier production against Carolina's blitz happy defense and is a top GPP play. The Panthers rank 32nd in DVOA versus No. 1 WRs, so DeVonta Smith is the ideal stacking partner with Hurts if you're not playing him solo.

The Panthers allowed 210 rushing yards to the Cowboys last week, but Miles Sanders is averaging only 9.4 carries per game and will likely get overtaken by rookie Kenny Gainwell at some point in the not too distant future.

The Eagles have played zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL, and 52.4% of Robby Anderson’s targets have come against zone coverage. D.J. Moore should eat against an Eagles defense that ranks 31st in DVOA versus WR1s, but Anderson should be involved again a week after seeing a season-high 11 targets.

Chuba Hubbard is a post-hype GPP play versus an Eagles defense that has allowed 131.0 rushing yards per game to opposing RBs over the past three weeks. Hubbard will be volatile, however, as he ran a route on only 22% of Sam Darnold’s drop backs last week. With an NFL-leading five rushing TDs, Darnold is also officially in the TD vulture conversation. He's too pricey this week for me, though.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: Chuba Hubbard, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith

DFS Plays

Washington’s defense is ranked 31st in DVOA on passes to running backs, so I’d expect Alvin Kamara to rebound from his zero-catch game last week. He's a great stack with the Saints DST against Washington’s banged up offense.

The Saints have played the most man coverage in the league, and Terry McLaurin and Dyami Brown are the only two Washington receivers with more than five targets versus man coverage. McLaurin could be locked up by Marshon Lattimore, while Brown is out, leaving Curtis Samuel to soak up targets (Adam Humphries has been used more frequently in zone coverage looks).

Antonio Gibson is banged up, so this is a week to fire up J.D. McKissic, who may also be one of the team’s top targets in this matchup if McLaurin can't shake Lattimore.

Ricky Seals-Jones will likely inherit most of the 90% plus snap share Logan Thomas was seeing and is a dart throw option at TE.

• Cash Plays: Curtis Samuel
• GPP Plays: Alvin Kamara, Saints DST, J.D. McKissic, Terry McLaurin, Ricky Seals-Jones

DFS Plays

In nine games as a road favorite since the beginning of 2019, Derrick Henry is averaging 26.2 carries for 147.4 yards and 1.56 rushing TDs compared to 21.5/106.6/0.88 in all other spots. The Jags run defense has been respectable, ranking 14th in DVOA, but it’s all about volume with Henry, who is averaging 32.0 carries (and 3.7 receptions!) over the past three weeks.

A.J. Brown is off the injury report and should feast on a jaguars defense that is ranked 32nd in DVOA versus No. 1 wide receivers. Brown should feast on the Jags and provide leverage off Henry.  James Robinson upped his snap count to 95% last week. His carries have increased from five to 11 to 15 to 18 in Weeks 1-4. He’s cash-viable against a Titans defense that is ranked 24th in rushing DVOA.

Laviska Shenault has seen at least seven targets in three of four games and should see his workload increase with D.J. Chark going on IR. With Chark going down last week, Shenault posted season highs in percentage of routes lined up out wide (30%), aDOT (13.4), and receiving yards (99).

• Cash Plays: Derrick Henry, James Robinson, Laviska Shenault
• GPP Plays: A.J. Brown, Marvin Jones

DFS Plays

The Lions are another zone-heavy team, lining up in Cover 0/Cover 1/man Cover 2 on only 22 pass snaps. While K.J. Osborn (nine) is third behind Jefferson and Thielen in man coverage targets, Tyler Conklin is third in zone coverage looks (11). The Lions rank dead last in DVOA on passes to TEs. Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, and Adam Thielen are high-upside GPP options as always, but Conklin is an underrated GPP leverage play off the rest of the Vikings passing game. Dalvin Cook would be a nice pivot off Henry as long as he plays, but he's dicey because the Vikings could rest him.

With TJ Hockenson banged up, the only Lion I'm interested in is D’Andre Swift. The Vikings DST Is my top cash game play and could end up outscoring every Lions skill player.

UPDATE: Alexander Mattison will start for Cook and becomes a top-three RB play and a must-play in cash games.

• Cash Plays: Vikings DST, UPDATE: Alexander Mattison
• GPP Plays: Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferon, Adam Thielen, Tyler Conklin, D’Andre Swift

DFS Plays

Denver has played man coverage at a top-five rate. Chase Claypool (32.1%) has seen a higher percentage of his targets come against man than Diontae Johnson (28.6%) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (25.0%), making Claypool an interesting contrarian play.

Najee Harris is seeing Chrstian McCaffrey-like usage, but I’d rather pay up elsewhere with him facing a Broncos defense that has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (202) and fewest receiving yards (45) to opposing RBs.

For Denver, this is too tough of a spot to rely on one of the committee of Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon, even if we do expect a high-volume run game. With Sutton banged up, this should be a Tim Patrick-Noah Fant game.

This game is tied with Patriots-Texans for lowest total on the board, so both DSTs are also in play.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: Tim Patrick, Noah Fant, Broncos DST, Chase Claypool, Steelers DST

DFS Plays

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, C.J. Uzomah, Allen Lazard

• Cash Plays: Davante Adams, Samaje Perine
• GPP Plays: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd

DFS Plays

After calling a game that featured 46 dropbacks and eight runs against the Bucs vaunted run defense and despite his rookie QB, you can bet Bill Belichick will do a complete 180 against a Houston defense that is ranked eighth in DVOA against the pass but 31st vs. the run. This is a smash spot for Damien Harris, who should shred a Texans defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry to opposing RBs. The Patriots' banged-up offensive line is a concern, but this should be a run it three times and punt kind of game plan for Belichick and the Patriots should still see some short fields opposite Davis Mills, so Harris has 30-carry, multiple-TD-type upside in this spot. If there weren’t so many other cheap options at RB, Harris would be viable in cash games. He’s still a top GPP play.

The Texans are averaging 4.5 points, 127.5 passing yards, and 45.0 rushing yards in Davis Mills’ two starts. Now, he plays a Belichick defense for the first time. I’m not hesitating to pay up to stack Harris with the Patriots DST.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: Damien Harris, Patriots DST

DFS Plays

Damien Williams has out-snapped Khalil Herbert 71-10, so far this season, suggesting he could approach the 80% snap levels that David Montgomery (out) reached in Week 2 (80%) and Week 3 (82%). Williams is a top cash play against a Raiders defense on a short week that slipped to 18th in rushing DVOA and 22nd in DVOA on passes to RBs after getting obliterated for 189 scrimmage yards and two TDs by Chargers backs on Monday.

Williams is stackle with the Bears DST, as the Raiders are just 20th in pass-blocking efficiency and have allowed 54 pressures, tied for sixth-most.

Raiders cornerback Casey Hayward has played at a shutdown level and Nate Hobbs has played well, but they still have to account for the absence of Trayvon Mullen (toe) and Damon Annette (groin). Heyward will likely match up on Allen Robinson, so I’d look for another potential big game from Darnell Mooeny, who Justin Fields was able to connect with for 5/125/0 last week thanks to increased max-protection schemes.

This could be another slow game for Derek Carr, who faces a top-eight pass defense by DVOA for the second week in a row, but it shouldn’t affect Hunter Renfrow, who has caught at least five passes in every game. Chicago has been stronger on the outside but their weak link at cornerback is Duke Shelley. Chicago also plays mostly zone, and Renfrow has caught 12-of-14 targets against zone compared to 7-of-12 targets vs. man. Three different slot receivers have already posted six-plus catches against the Bears: Cooper Kupp (seven) in Week 1, Tyler Boyd (seven) in Week 2 and Amon-Ra St. Brown (six) in Week 4.

Raiders defensive coordinator Gus Bradley tends to have success against rookie QBs, so I like Josh Jacobs and the Raiders DST as a contrarian stack. Jacobs saw 18 touches on a 63% snap count in his first game back last week, and he already has a multiple-TD game this season.

• Cash Plays: Damien Williams, Hunter Renfrow
• GPP Plays: Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney, Bears DST, Josh Jacobs, Raiders DST

DFS Plays

With Baker Mayfield struggling and facing a Chargers scheme that likes to limit explosive passing plays, Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt should still lead the way for the Browns against a Chargers run defense that improved last week but still ranks 25th in DVOA, compared to fourth against the pass. Until Mayfield, who suffered a partially torn labrum in his throwing shoulder earlier this year, starts playing better, I’d rather play the opposing DST against him than fire up Odell Beckham in a low-volume pass offense.

Justin Herbert will face a Browns defense that is ranked 13th in pass DVOA and fourth in pressure rate (30.1%). In order to protect tackles Rashawn Slater and Storm Norton from Myles Garrett and company, expect a lot of the quick passing game even though the Browns like to sit back in zone coverage. The Browns are allowing the second-most schedule adjusted receiving yards to WR1s (101.5) but the fourth-fewest to WR2s (31.9), fifth-fewest to RBs (27.8) and sixth-fewest to TEs. Cleveland is also first in rushing DVOA on defense. This sets up as a game where Austin Ekeler could struggle and Keenan Allen may have to catch 10 balls. I’m fading the Ekeler chalk coming off the big game and only rolling with Allen in GPPs.

• Cash Plays: None
• GPP Plays: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Keenan Allen, Chargers DST

DFS Plays

Jones is viable for cash games against a Cowboys defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs. The Cowboys are a high-percentage man coverage team, which should work in favor of Kenny Golladay, who leads the Giants in rate of targets versus man coverage (33.3%) — 10% more than Kadarius Toney (23.1%). Toney is still in play after seeing nine targets and a rushing attempt last week.

Saquon Barkley should continue to be productive against a Cowboys defense that rates 19th in DVOA and has allowed an NFL-high 33 catches to the position. Given that the Cowboys have allowed the fewest carries by RBs (46) but the most catches, Barkley is stack-able with Jones. Barkley’s snap rates the last three weeks are 84%, 86% and 89%.

Dak Prescott is one of the top GPP plays on the board against a Giants defense that is ranked 24th in passing DVOA and 29th in pressure rate (19.4%). Every Cowboys receiver is in play in tournaments: CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper due to decreasing salaries, and Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin and Cedrick Wilson due to the fact that the Giants are 24th in DVOA versus TEs and 31st against non-WR1/2s.

Ezekiel Elliott is a top RB play, as the Giants are ranked 26th in run-defense DVOA and have allowed two 100-yard rushers on the season.

• Cash Plays: Daniel Jones
• GPP Plays: Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Ceedee Lamb, Cedrick Wilson, Dalton Schultz, Blake Jarwin, Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay, Kadarius Toney

DFS Plays

Trey Lance was lucky to score 20-plus fantasy points in a half of work last week — it looked like the first time he ever threw a football. Deebo Samuel was wide open on Lance’s first TD pass and turned in an exceptional extra effort after the catch on the second score. Still, Lance scrambled five times for 36 yards and saw two designed runs, which is the type of rushing workload that can make any Tim Tebow into a DFS cheat code. Lance is viable in cash games.

The Cardinals are third in pass defense DVOA but 16th against the rush, so we can expect a run-heavy game plan from Kyle Shanahan, especially without George Kittle. That makes playing Lance alone a superior option to stacking him.

If doing the latter, Samuel is still the best option. The ultimate contrarian play is Brandon Aiyuk, who Shanahan talked up this week, saying, “I think his time will come. It’s a matter of time. He’s too good of a player for it not to be.” The Cardinals will be without starting cornerback Byron Murphy (ribs). The Cardinals are second in DVOA to tight ends, allowing just 24.0 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to the position, so Aiyuk is a better option than Kittle's replacement, Ross Dwelley.

Rookie Elijah Mitchell got removed from the injury report and should take his spot as the Niners' starting tailback. Shanahan clearly didn’t trust fellow rookie Trey Sermon, who played fewer snaps than fullback Kyle Juszczyk in each of the past two weeks despite being the de-facto starter. Mitchell has never seen fewer than 19 touches in a game in his pro career through two appearances, and both of his snap rates (64%, 61%) were higher than Sermon’s (59%, 51%) despite Sermon having zero competition for work. Mitchellis a nice leverage play on Lance.

Kyler Murray is one of the top GPP plays at QB against a 49ers defense that is ranked 18th in DVOA against the pass and 28th in pressure rate (20.5%).

After getting shredded in man coverage in Week 3 and losing more cornerbacks, the 49ers eased up and played mostly zone in Week 4 against Seattle. It worked for the most part, as the 49ers forced five straight three-and-outs in the first half. Against another scrambling threat in Murray, the 49ers are likely to stick with a zone-heavy approach. This benefits A.J. Green, who leads the team in zone targets with 16. Christian Kirk has seen only nine, which ranks sixth on the team behind Maxx Williams, DeAndre Hopkins, Rondale Moore and Chase Edmonds, who each have seen 13 targets apiece vs. zone. With Williams and Edmonds both questionable with shoulder injuries, Hopkins, Green and Moore are the plays.

James Conner would instantly be a borderline RB1 play if Edmonds is ruled out because he’d likely see nearly 100% of the backfield usage. Edmonds and Conner have combined for 290 backfield snaps, while No. 3 back Jonathan Ward has seen just two. Faced with an injury to half his backfield committee last season in Week 9 without Kenyan Drake, Kliff Kingsbury played Edmonds for 96% of the snaps and fed him a career-high 28 touches.

• Cash Plays: Trey Lance
• GPP Plays: Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green, Rondale Moore, Maxx Williams, Elijah Mitchell, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk