We made it. The 2021-22 NFL regular season concludes with the newly-implemented Week 18 on Sunday, and plenty of scenarios are at play.
First, we have teams that have already clinched a playoff spot but are still jockeying for the best possible seed.
Then we have teams locked into their playoff seed with little to play for on Sunday.
In addition, there are others still trying to earn a coveted playoff berth and, of course, the remaining teams whose seasons end today and already turning their attention to next year.
This all adds up to a smorgasbord of varying motivation and starters playing and resting.
And let's not forget about the wrench that COVID-19 continues to throw into the league.
So, how should football bettors approach a very challenging Week 18?
Simple, by continuing to practice discipline and betting only games with value.
And based on The Action Network's NFL betting model, here are two of Sunday's smartest Week 18 wagers.
NFL Betting Model Predictions for Sunday
*Odds and data as of Sunday morning
Bears vs. Vikings Betting Prediction
1 p.m. ET | FOX
Our model has liked Minnesota for a decent portion of the season, yet today it's Chicago showing as the valuable side of this matchup.
While available at +4 across the market, The Action Network's NFL PRO Projections peg this line at +3.3, translating to a 1.9% edge for Bears bettors.
PRO Projections Pick: Bears +5.5
Saints vs. Falcons Betting Prediction
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX
Sharp money has already come in on Atlanta throughout the week, driving this line down from +4.5 to +3.5 at the time of writing.
But even after the move, our NFL betting model suggests that there's still plenty of value with the Falcons.
We project this spread at Atlanta +2.4 which, considering the importance of +3 in NFL betting, results in a 4% edge with the Falcons.
As always, be sure to visit The Action Network's NFL Live Odds Page to not only find the best line possible, but also to identify the most advantageous vig as well.
PRO Projections Pick: Falcons +3.5
