We have a battle between two of the NFL's worst teams. A huge preseason favorite that finds itself a home underdog. And another game across the pond.
So what are the best betting angles for Sunday?
Our staff helps sort through every 1 and 4 p.m. ET game to help you find the best edges. Here are the games they'll hit on:
- Redskins at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
- Saints at Jaguars: 1 p.m. ET
- Bengals at Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
- Seahawks at Browns: 1 p.m. ET
- Eagles at Vikings: 1 p.m. ET
- Texans at Chiefs: 1 p.m. ET
- Falcons at Cardinals: 4:05 p.m. ET
- 49ers at Rams: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Titans at Broncos: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Cowboys at Jets: 4:25 p.m. ET
See how they're betting all 11 games, complete with Sean Koerner's projected odds, analysis of the biggest matchups and much more. (Including picks for every game.)
Redskins at Dolphins Betting Odds
- Odds: Redskins -3.5
- Over/Under: 41
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
One of these teams is (effectively) tanking. The other just fired its head coach. And both are winless.
How should you bet this battle between two of the league's worst?
Our staff breaks this game down from every angle, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Redskins-Dolphins Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Dolphins
The Dolphins have a long injury report, but coming off the bye, everyone was at least limited in practice, so I'd expect most to be trending in the right direction for Sunday.
Jordan Reed (concussion) still isn't practicing, so I’d expect him to be out yet again. Case Keenum (foot) has also been practicing in full and is expected to start. — Justin Bailey
Note: All info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Redskins WR Terry McLaurin vs. Dolphins Secondary
Neither of these teams has much going for them on either side of the ball, but McLaurin is an exception.
After scoring 11 touchdowns on just 35 receptions in his senior season at Ohio State, this year's 75th overall pick began his NFL career much like he ended his collegiate one — posting stat lines of 5-125-1, 5-62-1 and 6-70-1 in his first three pro games before a hamstring injury kept him out in Week 4.
McLaurin returned in Week 5 to post a 3-51-0 line against New England, which looks modest until you realize he accounted for 42.9% of Washington’s passing yards in its Colt McCoy-led "attack."
This week, McLaurin gets his starting QB back in Keenum and could see a lot of the Dolphins' top cornerback Xavien Howard, who after a strong Year 3 campaign has been one of the worst cornerbacks in football this season, allowing the fifth-worst passer rating (141.2) among 116 cornerbacks who have played at least 20% of the snaps. He grades out 97th at the position in Pro Football Focus' coverage grades.
Howard doesn't figure to get much help from a secondary that ranks dead last in passing yards per attempt allowed (10.3) and 30th in yards per target allowed to wide receivers (10.3). — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Redskins -3.5
- Projected Total: 42.5
In a matchup between winless teams, I’m going to avoid taking a side.
I had set the line at -3.5 if Keenum or Dwayne Haskins were to start. If they let McCoy get another start, I would’ve been more inclined to set this at -2.5.
I would lean toward the over here as the Redskins have been willing to let Keenum air it out. He’s topped 300 yards in two of his three full games this season. However, with new interim head coach Bill Callahan stating that he believes the Redskins didn’t run the ball as much as they should’ve under Jay Gruden, we could see a much more conservative offense that leans on Adrian Peterson in what should be a close game. As a result, I'm going to pass on the total as well.— Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Mike Randle: Dolphins +3.5
In a battle of teams with a combined record of 0-9, it's hard for me to not take the home team getting 3.5 points.
Brian Flores stated that Josh Rosen is the quarterback for the remainder of the season, which should give some stability to the offense. Rosen has certainly flashed moments, especially in Week 3, when both Preston Williams and DeVante Parker dropped easy touchdown catches in Dallas.
The Dolphins' recent use of running back Kenyan Drake has also been encouraging, with 32 combined carries and targets over the past two games.
Neither team is statistically effective on defense with Washington and Miami ranking 29th and 32nd in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA, respectively. The same is true on offense with both teams ranking 30th or worse in offensive efficiency.
With Gruden out after last week’s 33-7 loss to New England, this profiles as the best potential opportunity for a Dolphins win. I'll bank on the Rosen-to-Williams/Parker connection to make enough plays to secure their first win of the season.
Saints at Jaguars Betting Odds
- Odds: Jaguars -1
- Over/Under: 43.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
The Saints are undefeated with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback, but can they survive a test from Gardner Minshew and the Jaguars?
Our experts reveal how they think this matchup will be decided, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Saints-Jaguars Injury Report
Jalen Ramsey (back) has been limited in practice all week and owner Shahid Khan believes that Ramsey will play this week. Minshew (groin) was added to the injury report with a limited practice on Thursday, but there’s nothing to indicate he’ll miss this game.
Alvin Kamara (ankle) was a new addition to the injury report on Thursday, but he still got in a limited practice, so he’ll likely play. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Alvin Kamara vs. Jaguars Run Defense
The Jaguars rank last among in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA, which means the biggest mismatch in this key Week 6 battle falls on the shoulders of Kamara.
The Jaguars have allowed an average of 122 rushing yards, one touchdown and 5.7 yards per carry over the first five weeks. Kamara’s snap share is north of 76% — the highest of his three-year career, by far. Among running backs he ranks sixth in targets, fifth in receiving yards and fourth in receptions.
New Orleans will likely feature Kamara and backup Latavius Murray, but there is hope for the Jags: In their last home game against a run-heavy Tennessee team, they held the Titans to just 3.5 yards per carry on 26 carries.
With Ramsey returning to practice, the Jacksonville pass defense should be much better than its current No. 18 ranking. There's a good chance this game will be won in the trenches between Kamara and the Jaguars front seven.
Until Drew Brees returns, the Saints will continue to use Bridgewater as a game manager. The team that wins the ground game will likely prevail.— Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Jaguars -1
- Projected Total: 44
The Saints are 3-0 straight up and against the spread ever since Bridgewater replaced Brees. Bridgewater certainly deserves some credit for keeping the Saints alive while Brees recovers from thumb surgery. However, a lot of it is thanks to the Saints’ coaching tailoring this offense to get the ball in the hands of Kamara and Michael Thomas.
The Jaguars should be able to figure out that simple blueprint this week and could force Bridgewater to make riskier throws. They desperately need Ramsey to return to possibly slow Thomas down. The public is likely treating the Saints as the favorites — they’re attracting 76% of the tickets as of writing (see live public betting data here) — while the sharps are making the Jags the favorites with 60% of the money.
Right now this line is right where I have it pegged. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Randle: Jaguars -1
This was a strange opening line.
The Saints coming off impressive home wins over the previously undefeated Dallas and a Tampa Bay team that trounced the Rams 55-40 at home. The Jags, meanwhile, are 2-3 and still haven’t resolved their friction with Ramsey.
But the Jaguars should be able to generate more pressure on Bridgewater than either of the Saints' past two home opponents. Jacksonville logged nine sacks in its last home game against Tennessee and added three more at Carolina last Sunday. Bridgewater struggles against defenses that pressure him, ranking only 20th at the position with a 35% pressured completion rate.
And I'm officially a believer in Minshew, who has thrown seven touchdown passes and no interceptions over his past four starts. D.J. Chark has shown promise with Minshew at the helm and Dede Westbrook has recovered from his slow start, with 26 targets and 17 receptions over his past three games.
This line feels low. If Ramsey returns, I like it even more. Even if he doesn’t, I would bet this line up to Jaguars -2.
Bengals at Ravens Betting Odds
- Odds: Ravens -12
- Over/Under: 48
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
While the Dolphins and Redskins are getting much of the attention this week in a meeting of two winless teams, the Bengals are also floundering at 0-5. They head to Baltimore to face the Ravens, who have come back down to Earth since starting 2-0 and, so far, bettors like the Bengals to cover the double-digit spread.
The Bengals, who are 2-1 as underdogs this season, are getting 57% of betting tickets as of Thursday evening. Should you follow the public on this spread?
Our staff breaks down every angle of this matchup, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Bengals-Ravens Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Ravens
The Ravens have some noteworthy injuries with Marquise Brown (ankle) missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Maurice Canady (thigh), one of Pro Football Focus' best-graded corners on the Ravens, also hasn't been practicing to begin the week. His potential absence would be good news for some of the Bengals pass-catchers.
The Bengals will be without A.J. Green (ankle) again, which isn’t surprising. They’re also banged up around the offensive line with Cordy Glenn (concussion) getting downgraded on Thursday and Andre Smith (ankle), who could be trending to a missed game if he doesn’t get in a practice on Friday. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Ravens Running Backs vs. Bengals Linebackers
In Lamar Jackson's 13 career starts, the Ravens have a 1940s-esque 57.2% run rate. This season, they have an NFL-high 180 rush attempts and lead the league with a 0.57 rushing success rate.
The Ravens don't just run the ball to keep opposing defenses honest, they run to win.
Last season, the Bengals allowed the second-most production to opposing backfields with 170.5 yards and 1.25 touchdowns from scrimmage per game. This year, they've somehow gotten worse with 203.2 yards and 1.80 touchdowns allowed.
Almost every back with at least eight carries against them this season has gone off, and the Ravens have three backs — Mark Ingram, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill — who could legitimately see eight rushes each.
Linebackers Nick Vigil and Preston Brown are especially to blame for the Bengals’ generosity to opposing backs. They have both been exposed on the ground and in coverage.
The Bengals are fortunate to be only No. 26 in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. They're at their worst in the intermediate range of the field, where they rank No. 31 with 1.59 second-level yards allowed per run. Once opposing backs get 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage, Bengals linebackers have been incapable of limiting yardage.
To make matters worse, the Bengals are No. 30 against running backs with a 43.4% pass defense DVOA. Last year, they were No. 31 with a 22.0% mark.
On the ground or through the air, they can’t stop anyone.
Vigil and Brown specifically have been among the worst defenders on the team, and that’s reflected in their PFF grades:
- Vigil: 43.9 overall | 51.8 run defense | 42.7 coverage
- Brown: 43.2 overall | 41.1 run defense | 51.1 coverage
The Ravens backs should smash. The first start of Jackson's NFL career came in Week 11 of last season against the Bengals, when the Ravens had a collective 53-267-2 rushing line.
While Jackson is likely to get some of his production on the ground, there should still be enough rushing production to go around plus enough receiving work for multiple Ravens backs to go off with big games. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Ravens -11
- Projected Total: 47.5
I’m right in line with market here, so I don’t see any value.
My Projected Point Totals: Ravens 29.3, Bengals 18.3 — Sean Koerner
Expert Pick
Mike Randle: Ravens -12
As Freedman mentioned, this is the ideal smash spot for the Ravens. They comfortably started 2-0 before struggling in three straight games against the Chiefs, Browns and Steelers. Last week’s 26-23 overtime win at Pittsburgh was much needed after a two-game losing streak.
The Bengals will likely struggle to contain the Ravens explosive offense, ranking 31st overall in defensive DVOA. It's hard to envision Cincy generating any type of pass pressure against Baltimore's offensive, which has allowed just eight sacks and 20 quarterback hits on the season. The Bengals have also generated the second-fewest sacks (6) this season.
Even worse, the Bengals have allowed the second-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks, which is bad news against the speedy Jackson, who ranks first at the position with an average of 61.6 rushing yards per game.
This game lines up as a likely big win for the Ravens.
The Bengals will have opportunities against a pass defense that's allowed 300-plus passing performances to Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes, but their limited defensive pressure will provide too many opportunities for the Ravens to keep this game within 12 points.
Seahawks at Browns Betting Odds
- Odds: Seahawks -1.5
- Over/Under: 46
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
The Browns are coming off an embarrassing Monday Night Football loss and now host to the Seahawks as home underdogs.
Seattle has been a better bet against the spread on the road (2-0) compared to at home (0-3), and bettors have taken notice. The Seahawks are getting nearly 80% of betting tickets — the most of any team this week as of late Thursday.
Will they edge out the Browns on the road, or can Baker Mayfield and crew bounce back?
Our staff breaks down every angle of this matchup, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Seahawks-Browns Injury Report
The Browns could potentially get their two starting corners back in Denzel Ward (hamstring) and Greedy Williams (hamstring) after they turned in limited practices to begin the week — an encouraging sign since it's the first time they’ve practiced since Week 3.
The Seahawks will likely be without D.J. Fluker (hamstring) on the offensive line, but other than that, they look good. It’s worth noting that Chris Carson (shoulder) was added to the injury report on Thursday, but he still got in a limited practice session, so there’s no need to panic yet. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Seahawks RB Chris Carson vs. Browns Run Defense
The Browns' run defense was pummeled by the 49ers' backfield on Monday, allowing 275 rushing yards at 6.9 yards per carry. Look for the Seahawks to attempt a repeat performance with the NFL’s fifth-highest run rate.
The key to the Seahawks' ground game centers around Carson. The fourth-year running back is the dominant lead back in an offense that ranks fourth with 30.8 run player per game.
Per PlayerProfiler, Carson ranks fourth in breakaway runs, eighth in evaded tackles and even third in running back catch rate. He's a true all-around offensive weapon.
Cleveland has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing running backs while only seeing the 12th most carries.
With Russell Wilson posing such a threat in the passing game, the Browns will attempt to limit Carson with a majority of base front defenses, something he's seen all season. He ranks seventh at the position with a 47.9% base front carry rate.
After being eviscerated by Matt Breida (27.8 fantasy points) and Tevin Coleman (15.7 fantasy points), the key mismatch is clearly Carson against that Browns' defensive front. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Seahawks -0.5
- Projected Total: 46
This seems like the ultimate trap game.
The Seahawks beat a good Rams team on Thursday Night Football then the Browns were blown out on MNF. Primetime games can have a bigger impact on how the public perceives certain teams because more people watch them.
There was nothing positive to take away from the Browns’ performance — there are no metrics that you can point to and say they’re actually better than the Seahawks.
To back the Browns here, you have to believe their roster and coaching are better than what we’ve seen to date. I happen to be in that camp, and I specifically pointed to the Browns' tough schedule to start the year could make them a great buy-low candidate near mid-season. This is a spot I think we can cash in on that plan.
The market is getting flooded with Seahawks money as 81% of tickets are on them as of writing (see live public betting data here). It could force books to push the line up to 3, so we need to wait and see if it reaches that key number.
We also need to see if Ward and Williams are able to return. If the Browns are closer to full strength, I’ll like them even more in what will be a prime bounce back spot. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
Mayfield threw two interceptions and fumbled twice on Monday in the Browns' 31-3 loss to the 49ers. After Cleveland’s poor offensive performance, bettors are looking to fade them, especially as favorites against the Seahawks.
Oddsmakers know recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. What the public last saw impacts how they wager the following week. As such, bookmakers will inflate the lines against teams that had a poor offensive game.
Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 148-95-4 (61%) against the spread since 2003, returning a profit of $4,430 for a $100 bettor.
The Browns are a match for this system. — John Ewing
PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Browns +2
As a result of the Browns' blowout loss, the consensus has now flipped to them being terrible again. But generally speaking, NFL teams are never as good or as bad as they appear in any individual week.
We've seen this story with the Browns a few times already this season. After getting smoked in their opener against the Titans, they bounced back with a convincing win over the Jets on MNF. After losing at home to the Rams in Week 3 with a shorthanded squad, they responded the following week with a win in Baltimore.
To me, these early season results speak to the fact that Cleveland is a young, and not-so-well coached squad that will go through these ups and downs.
The Browns are still a decent AFC team in my book, and should be favored at home against the fraudulent Seahawks. Sure, they’re 4-1, which looks impressive on the surface, but look at Seattle's wins:
- Week 1: 21-20 home win over a winless Cincinnati team in a game they were out-gained by just under 200 yards
- Week 2: 28-26 road win over the Steelers, who lost Ben Roethlisberger in the first half
- Week 3: Home loss to Teddy Bridgewater and the Saints
- Week 4: 17-point road win at Arizona, but only out-gained Cards by 20 yards
- Week 5: 30-29 home win over the Rams in which a missed field goal was the deciding factor
The one bad thing about this spot is Seattle will have extra rest/prep after a Thursday night game, while Cleveland is coming back from the west coast on a short week. But I can’t pass up the Browns as home dog here.
The Browns have been a mess at times as a result of their offensive line (among other issues), but I’m not as concerned about that group this season — their line ranks 26th in adjusted sack rate, but Seattle’s defensive line ranks 25th in that same category and 21st in adjusted line yards (a measure of run defense effectiveness, per Football Outsiders).
Mayfield should have time in the pocket (assuming he doesn’t bail) to find his receivers downfield against a suspect Seahawks secondary. Just take a look at each respective team’s net yards despite a tougher schedule so far:
Browns: +0.3 (6.2 for vs. 5.9 against) | 12-11 opponent record
Seahawks: +0.2 (6.3 for vs. 6.1 against) | 9-15-1 opponent record
Give me the Browns at anything plus money.
Eagles at Vikings Betting Odds
- Odds: Vikings -3
- Over/Under: 44
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
After a contentious week among the offense, the Vikings played their best game of the season in a 28-10 win over the Giants. The Eagles, meanwhile, are still coping with a glut of injuries but are thriving on offense and feature one of the league's top run defenses.
Our experts preview this week's matchup, complete with a comparison of the market to Sean Koerner's odds and a staff pick against the spread.
Eagles-Vikings Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Vikings
The Vikings' player to watch is Adam Thielen, who missed practice on Thursday due to an illness. We'll have a better idea of his status on Friday, but there aren't any indications of him being ruled out on Sunday.
The Eagles continue to be banged up. DeSean Jackson (abdomen) is expected to be out again, and they had five other players who missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday including CB Ronald Darby (hamstring), CB Avonte Maddox (concussion) and DT Tim Jernigan (foot). The Vikings could have a nice game through the air if they can establish the pass. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Vikings WRs Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs vs. Eagles Secondary
The Eagles cornerback group has been decimated by injuries.
Starters Jalen Mills (foot) is on PUP and Cre'Von LeBlanc (LisFranc) is on IR. Darby (hamstring) and Maddox (concussion) are questionable. The 32-year-old Orlando Scandrick, who went from his couch to Eagles slot corner last week, missed practice with an illness. And Sidney Jones has dealt with recurring hamstring issues, though he's expected to return alongside Rasul Douglas and Scandrick, assuming he’s available.
If any go down in-game, 2018 undrafted free agent Craig James — already waived once by Philly this season — will be forced into action. Safety Rodney McLeod (knee) has also been limited in practice, so along with the potential for in-game injuries, communication could be an issue for a Philly secondary that has already given up five 100-yard games to opposing wideouts.
Douglas has acquitted himself well, ranking 26th among qualified cornerbacks in Pro Football Focus' coverage grades, but no one else ranks higher than 57th (Jones). Whomever lines up, they'll struggle to cover the Vikings' top receivers. Thielen is averaging 79.9 yards per game since the start of 2017, and Diggs has averaged 5.4 catches and 0.53 touchdowns per game over that span.
The Eagles defense ranks first in rushing yards per game allowed (63.0) and second in yards per carry allowed (3.2), so this matchup sets up well for Vikings offensive coordinator Kevin Stefanski will likely have to change up his approach from one which has seen his unit attempt the fewest passes per game in the league through five weeks (25.2). — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Vikings -3
- Projected Total: 43.5
The Vikings' main goal each week is to establish the run. They've enabled Dalvin Cook to have a breakout year, which has caused their star wide receivers to complain to the press.
But what does the Eagles defense do best? Stop the run.
Anytime we see a funnel defense that's set up to stop the opposing offense, it creates hidden value. In this case, there isn't much value in the pre-game lines as I'm right in line with them, but this sets up a potential in-game betting plan: If the Vikings happen to get an early lead of seven or more points, it’s going to set up a scoring environment that favors the under. If the Eagles get up early, it'll set up a scoring environment that favors the over. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Matthew Freedman: Vikings -3
Under head coach Mike Zimmer (since 2014), the Vikings have had all sorts of against the spread edges.
They have been a profitable regular-season team to back:
- At home: 29-12-1, 36.6% ROI
- As favorites: 32-15-1, 31.8% ROI
- Outside of division: 39-13-1, 45.1% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings are.
Zimmer is focused, no-nonsense and risk-adverse. His process-oriented, defense-directed management makes the Vikings a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.
They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. They don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. They don’t present a known and easy challenge to teams that aren’t familiar with them.
As non-divisional home favorites, the Vikings are 18-2-1 against the spread (71.9% ROI).
Texans at Chiefs Betting Odds
- Odds: Chiefs -4
- Over/Under: 55.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
The Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season in primetime, falling (at home!) to the Colts last Sunday night. Now Kansas City hosts Houston in what should be a high-flying offensive matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
Texans-Chiefs features the highest total of Week 6, and most of the public bets and money are flowing in on the over. But is that where the value lies?
Our staff breaks this matchup down from every angle, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner's projected total as well as a staff pick on the over/under.
Texans-Chiefs Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Texans
The Texans might be one of the healthiest teams in the league, and they could get Kenny Stills (hamstring) back this week as he's now gotten in two limited practices thus far. Otherwise, there aren't any key injuries of note.
Tyreek Hill (collarbone) has been practicing in a limited fashion, but it's unclear whether the Chiefs will decide to roll him out this week or not. Sammy Watkins (hamstring) is trending towards sitting this one after he missed back-to-back practices and most of last week’s game. Byron Pringle would be in line for an increased workload if both receivers are ruled out. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Texans Rush Offense vs. Chiefs Rush Defense
I am by no means enamored with the backfield duo of Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson Jr., but the Texans have been efficient on the ground with their 0.55 rushing success rate and 5.1 yards per carry.
It helps that they have one of the league’s better rushing quarterbacks in Deshaun Watson, who has averaged 6.0 yards per carry for his career.
And Hyde is actually having a better season than most people realize.
Hyde's 4.2 yards per carry is acceptable, and his 0.59 rushing success rate is exemplary: It's actually the highest rate in the league for any back averaging at least eight carries per game. Hyde doesn't get a lot of yards, but for a high percentage of his carries, he gets enough yards for the offense to sustain drives.
As for Johnson, he’s seeing just 6.4 carries per game, and that's not a large number, but that's more than the 4.7 he average in his first four years with the Browns. And he’s having a highly efficient season, averaging 6.4 yards per carry. He's not as consistent as Hyde, as evidenced by his 0.47 rushing success rate. But Johnson’s big-play ability adds an extra element to the rushing offense that must be accounted for.
The matchup for the Texans on the ground could not be better. The Chiefs are vulnerable on the ground with their league-low 46.5 Pro Football Focus run-defense grade. Last week, the Colts gave Kansas City its first loss of the season — at Arrowhead Stadium no less — and they relied heavily on the running game to extend drives and keep the Chiefs offense on the sideline.
The Texans could go with a similar strategy this weekend, especially given the success that lead backs in particular have had against the Chiefs.
- Leonard Fournette (Week 1): 13-66-0 rushing, 4-28-0 receiving on 6 targets
- Josh Jacobs (Week 2): 12-99-0 rushing, 0 targets
- Mark Ingram (Week 3): 16-103-3 rushing, 4-32-0 receiving on 4 targets
- Kerryon Johnson (Week 4): 26-125-0 rushing, 2-32-0 receiving on 3 targets
- Marlon Mack (Week 5): 29-132-0 rushing, 3-16-0 receiving on 3 targets
Watson and Johnson will pitch in, but this matchup really comes down to Hyde and his ability to keep drives going with steady yardage.
Coming off his first 20-carry game of the year and facing the team that signed him in March and traded him in August, Hyde has the potential for a grinding volume-fueled #RevengeGame performance. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Chiefs -6
- Projected Total: 55.5
Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury during the Chiefs’ loss to the Colts. It clearly limited him, so we’ll need to monitor it before betting this game.
Right now I have the line set as if he’s 100%. Any indications that the ankle could be a concern would make me lay off the -4 line. While he doesn’t rely on his legs to scramble much, he does use his mobility to escape pressure, keep the play alive and find a receiver for a huge play. Any limitations to his mobility could affect how much value he brings to this offense. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Freedman: Under 55.5
Whenever the Chiefs are at home, I almost always automatically bet the under.
That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?
With the Chiefs, that has historically not been the case.
Since head coach Andy Reid joined the franchise in 2013, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 34-20-1 under record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 26.1% return on investment (per Bet Labs).
In the Reid era, the Chiefs have actually scored 3.3 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs' games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -8.9 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 26 with a mediocre 42.9 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with a league-high 51.8 points.
Arrowhead is a tough place to score, and not just for the visiting team.
I wouldn’t bet this any lower than 55, because a 28-27 game gives us a push and hoping for anything less than that feels greedy, but until we see Mahomes and the Chiefs consistently hit the over at home, I'll be betting the home under when I think there’s even a slight edge.
Falcons at Cardinals Betting Odds
- Odds: Falcons -2.5
- Over/Under: 51.5
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
The Falcons might be the least likely one-win team in the NFL, and they'll head west to face a fellow one-win group in Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.
Our experts preview this matchup, complete with Sean Koerner's projected odds and a staff pick on the over/under.
Falcons-Cardinals Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Falcons
The Falcons are banged up in the secondary and could be down their best corner, Desmond Trufant (toe), who didn't practice Wednesday or Thursday. Julio Jones (hip) got in a limited practice session on Thursday, so I’d expect him to be OK for Sunday.
The primary injury to pay attention to on the Cardinals is David Johnson (back), who missed practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. Johnson said his back locked up on Sunday, which is why Chase Edmonds came in for him. Friday will be a big indicator of whether Johnson will play. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Falcons Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
This could be a high-scoring, back-and-forth game that calls for voluminous aerial action, and that falls right into the Falcons’ wheelhouse.
The Falcons have a league-high 72.0% pass-play rate, and Matt Ryan leads the league with 222 attempts and 156 completions. He trails only Patrick Mahomes with his 1,885 air yards, and he and Mahomes are the only quarterbacks this year to pass for 300-plus yards in every start.
The Cardinals are second in the league in pace (24.0 seconds per play), which creates extra drives for opposing offenses, so the Falcons are likely to have even more plays than usual to throw the ball, and when they throw, they should have success: The Cardinals are No. 27 in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA.
The Cardinals are without starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve), which means that Jones and Calvin Ridley are matched up on the outside against temporary fill-ins. Both receivers should be able to get open at will.
And tight end Austin Hooper is especially likely to have success. He leads the team with 34 receptions, 363 yards receiving and 163 yards after the catch, and he's facing a Cardinals defense that's allowed league-high marks to the position with 92.2 yards and 1.2 touchdowns per game.
And it also doesn’t hurt the Falcons that the Cardinals are No. 29 in pass defense DVOA against running backs. Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith could pitch in with significant production through the air.
In a game with the week’s second-highest over/under, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ryan and the Falcons pile on 400-plus passing yards.— Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Falcons -1.5
- Projected Total: 53
The Cardinals managed to get their first win of 2019 in Cincinnati. Now they get a 1-4 Falcons team that is reeling with secondary and offensive line issues. The public is backing the Falcons big here based on their public perception, but it’s worth noting that Ryan is 4-15 against the spread on the road over the past three seasons.
There was some odd line movement on Monday in which, despite getting 78% of the tickets, the line dropped from -2.5 to -1.5 and then to -1 over the first few hours.
It’s since climbed all the way up to -2.5 with enough juice that it’s likely going to hit -3 eventually. I’m guessing certain sharp bettors wanted to lock in the Cardinals while they were getting points — almost as if they were anticipating that the Cardinals would eventually be favored here. We’re likely to see public money flood in until it hits -3, at which point I think we see the sharps come in hard on the Cardinals again. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The Cardinals and Falcons each have one win this season, but bettors have had more luck wagering on Arizona than Atlanta. The Cards are 3-2 ATS while the Dirty Birds are 1-4 ATS.
ATS records tend to regress to the mean over the course of a season as bookmakers adjust to team performance and public perception. As a result, it's been profitable to bet teams that have bad ATS records against opponents with winning ATS records.
Following this simple Pro System, bettors have gone 164-101-9 (61.9%) ATS since 2005. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,398 following this strategy.
The Falcons are small road favorites on Sunday and expected to win. History suggests they're a good bet to cover, too.— John Ewing
Expert Picks
Mike Randle: Over 51.5
This matchup features two of the fastest offenses in the league. Arizona ranks second with an average of 24.1 second between play while Atlanta sits sixth at 25.6 seconds. Combine that with two defenses that rank in the bottom six in overall defensive DVOA, and this game has a high probability of hitting the over.
Ryan is third among all quarterbacks in passing yards and has thrown for 300-plus yards in every game this season. He'll face an Arizona team that ranks third overall in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks, trailing only New Orleans and, ironically, Atlanta.
The Falcons have been the worst at limiting opposing quarterbacks, allowing an average of 23.7 fantasy points per game. Atlanta has also allowed the second-most passing yards and second-most quarterback rushing touchdowns.
Murray has hit his stride over the past two weeks, averaging over 7.5 yards per attempt, while rushing for 120 yards and two touchdowns. In addition, the Cardinals boast the best run offense DVOA, even ranking ahead of the Ravens.
The Cardinals offense should benefit from a Falcons pass rush that ranks last with only five total sacks this season.
The Falcons feature superior receiving playmakers including Jones, Ridley, Mohammed Sanu and the overall TE1 in Hooper. And Arizona has been a sieve against tight ends, allowing 16.4 fantasy points per game, more than 33% more than the second-worst team (Tampa Bay).
Take two poor defenses vs. two explosive offenses that want to play at a fast pace, and you should have a recipe for a high-scoring shootout in the desert.
49ers at Rams Betting Odds
- Odds: Rams -3
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
In two meetings between these teams last year, the Rams scored 39 and 48 points in two decisive victories. But San Francisco is much improved compared to last season, starting the season 4-0.
Is the market starting to overrate the 49ers, or is there value in backing San Fran as a short road underdog?
Our analysts dig deep into the matchup, giving out our power ratings and an expert pick for the spread.
49ers-Rams Injury Report
Which team is healthier? 49ers
The 49ers will be down two offensive linemen in Joe Staley (leg) and Mike McGlinchey (knee), which won’t be ideal against the Rams’ ninth-ranked pass-rush, per Pro Football Focus. They’ll also continue to be without CB Ahkello Witherspoon (foot), who was one of their best corners before spraining his foot.
The Rams have some big question marks with Aqib Talib (ribs) and Todd Gurley (quad) not practicing. The Rams have given zero indication of whether Gurley will play. If he does sit, Malcolm Brown could be in for a nice workload.
Wide receiver Brandin Cooks (concussion) has logged in limited practice sessions after getting knocked out of last Thursday’s game, so he appears to be trending in the right direction. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Rams Defensive Coordinator Wade Phillips vs. Undermanned 49ers O-line
Like Justin mentioned, the 49ers have massive injuries along their offensive line. Losing both tackles (and your best blocking back) is a blow to any offense, especially on a short week against a defensive coordinator you know is going to cook up a scheme with tons of pressure to take advantage.
San Francisco will now walk into L.A. with Justin Skule (a sixth-round rookie) at left tackle and Daniel Brunskill (who played in the Alliance American Football League this year) at right tackle. Not ideal.
Expect pressure from all over and for Aaron Donald to get some run lining up on the outside to blow up the 49ers backfield. Phillips has a lot of flexibility since he has corners who can cover the underwhelming 49ers wide receivers on the outside. — Stuckey
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Rams -3
- Projected Total: 49
The ugly display by the Browns offense on Monday Night Football was also a display of how improved this 49ers defense is — they’re stout against the run and pass, which is a big reason I’m showing value on the under here.
The line opened right at 49, but has been bet up to 50.5 with 71% of tickets and 88% of money pouring in on the over as of writing (see live public betting data here), so there’s no reason for the line to stop now. Fifty-one is a pretty key number, so it’s worth seeing if it reaches that or 51.5, then take the under. That’s probably when sharps will start to show resistance and not let it get much higher.— Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The 49ers are undefeated this season and 3-1 against the spread (ATS), covering by a whopping 15.3 points per game.
Bettors are split on whether San Fran will keep it going against the Rams, but history points to a clear side. Since 2005, it has been profitable to bet against teams that have covered the spread by a large margin, as teams tend to regress to the mean over the course of the season.
Our Pro System takes advantage of this, and bettors following this strategy have gone 308-235-16 (57%) ATS. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $5,270 following this system.
The 49ers are on a hot streak while the Rams have lost two in a row. Despite the teams heading in opposite directions, history suggests Jared Goff & Co. are the smart bet. — John Ewing
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Rams -3
This is a textbook buy low/sell high spot offering line value in the weekly overreaction game we see play out in the NFL each week.
After starting 2-0, the Rams looked ugly in Cleveland on national TV and then dropped two in a row — one as a home favorite against Tampa Bay and then last Thursday night against Seattle in a game they should’ve won if Greg Zuerlein makes a kick he generally makes.
Meanwhile, everyone seems to have crowned the 49ers NFC champs after they obliterated the Browns on Monday night. Not much changed from my perspective in that game; it was a dream spot for San Fran, which was off a bye and catching a banged up Browns team coming across country for a second straight road game after beating their rival Ravens.
But what exactly have the 49ers done so far? Beat the Bucs to open the season on a day when Jameis Winston threw two picks? And then follow that up with wins over three sub-.500 teams in the AFC North? Color me not as impressed as everyone else.
Look, I think the 49ers are a very solid team and a legit contender in the NFC, but the love has gone too far — especially as they play on a short week against a Rams team that's had extra time to prep for the matchup after playing last Thursday night.
San Francisco will also have to grapple with losing one of their most important offensive pieces to injury in Kyle Juszczyk. He’s a key cog in Kyle Shanahan's zone run scheme, is an excellent blocker (especially when it comes to picking up blitzes) and makes an impact in the passing game.
The 49ers use 21 personnel (two backs and one tight end) more than any team in the NFL and it’s their most successful formation. If opposing defenses stay in base, they throw. And if they stay with an extra defensive back, they run it.
Losing Juszczyk, the only fullback on the roster as I’m writing this, will require Shanahan to rework a lot of the offense. But that’s again where the short week really hurts the 49ers.
I took -3 (-115) when it popped in the market and would take anything at -4 or better. At -3, it’s assuming these teams are dead even. And that’s just not the case in my opinion, especially when you account for the favorable spot for LA and the key SF injuries.
Titans at Broncos Betting Odds
- Odds: Broncos -2
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
If you're into defense and mediocre quarterbacks, boy do we have a game for you!
This game opened with a spread of Broncos -1 and 40-point over/under. The market hasn't moved much since then.
So how should you bet a game featuring two teams that are seemingly so similar? Let our experts guide the way with analysis on all the key injuries to know, a sneaky storyline, Sean Koerner's power ratings and our experts' favorite bets.
Titans-Broncos Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Broncos
Titans tight end Delanie Walker (knee) missed practice on Wednesday but returned to full practice on Thursday. This is likely his normal routine now. Tennessee's biggest injury of note remains Cameron Wake (hamstring), who was ruled out last week and still hasn’t resumed practicing.
The Broncos had a massive injury report on Wednesday, but most players were upgraded to full practice on Thursday, suggesting most of them should be trending toward being active for Week 6. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Sneaky Storyline
How Is Titans Kicker Cody Parkey's State of Mind?
I cannot stress enough how no matter where you look, these two teams match up pretty evenly across the board in what should be a low-scoring defensive struggle, similar to what we saw last week in Bills-Titans.
Considering how similarly these teams profile, I wouldn’t be surprised if this game came down to a field goal.
Both of these teams are well aware of the value of special teams.
The Titans ended up losing by seven to the Bills at home as a result of special teams miscues, namely Cairo Santos missing four field goals. Consequently, Tennessee went out and signed the much-maligned Parkey, whose last-second double-doink miss cost the Bears a playoff win last season.
And the Broncos have already lost two games this year via last-second field goals against the Bears and Jaguars.
If Parkey can’t shake his demons — which could come roaring out if he misses his first attempt — advantage Brandon McManus. And how will head coach Mike Vrabel subsequently react if Parkey misses his first? All eyes will be on the Titans' new kicker this week, especially after how they lost last week and how Parkey last left a football field.
I personally think Parkey will be fine. He just needed a change of scenery. He’s actually the much more accurate career kicker between he and McManus.
I won’t be playing either side, but I can’t pass up the opportunity to tease the Titans to +8.5, crossing 3 and 7 in a game I make a coin flip with a low total — my favorite tease scenario. I would do the same with Denver if it was +2.5. — Stuckey
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Broncos -2
- Projected Total: 39
I’m pretty much right in line with market here, so I don’t see any value. I'll be staying away. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Danny Donahue: Two-team, 6-point teaser with Titans +8 and Saints +7.5
Like Stuckey, I'll also have the Titans +1.5 or better in a 6-point teaser. Getting an underdog from 1.5-2.5 is crucial because you’re crossing two key numbers — namely 3 and 7. The value is even more magnified when using the strategy in games with low over/unders. So adding Tennessee +2 to a two-team, 6-point teaser was an easy decision.
Picking the second leg wasn’t quite as straightforward, and as much as I think the Jags may end up as one of this weekend’s sharper plays vs. the Saints, the value of going from +1.5 to +7.5 with the Saints was too good to pass up.
I’d bet this as long as both teams are listed +1.5 or higher.
Cowboys at Jets Betting Odds
- Odds: Cowboys -7
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
Sam Darnold makes his long-awaited return to field after dealing with mono, and it couldn't come at a better time with the Cowboys visiting MetLife. Darnold's return has not swayed bettors in the Jets' direction, though — the Cowboys are receiving 75% of betting tickets as of Thursday evening.
Will the Jets' offense finally get going with Darnold under center?
Our staff breaks down every angle of this matchup, featuring a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds, Pro System picks and more.
Cowboys-Jets Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Cowboys
I’d give an even bigger edge to the Cowboys being healthier if Tyron Smith (ankle) and La’el Collins (knee) both end up playing. The Cowboys are optimistic they'll play, but neither have practiced this week so far.
Leighton Vander Esch also hasn’t practiced this week with an illness, but there’s no indication that he’ll be ruled out. Amari Cooper (ankle) has remained limited in practice but that seems to be the normal routine for him this year.
The Jets are a mess heading into Week 6. Most notably, C.J. Mosely (groin) isn’t expected to play, and neither is Chris Herndon, who is fresh off a suspension, but hurt his hamstring while running routes. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Dallas Pass Rush vs. Jets Offensive Line
The biggest positional contrast between these two teams exists on the offensive line. While the Cowboys could again bring one of the league’s best with the return of Smith, the Jets' offensive line ranks last (per Football Outsiders).
The Jets have allowed the most sacks and most quarterback hits of any team in the league. With Darnold making his first start since dealing with mono, the Jets need to find a way to limit the Dallas pressure.
The Cowboys' defensive line ranks 25th in adjusted sack rate, but has seen an increase in pass pressure since Robert Quinn returned from suspension. Dallas has totaled 10 sacks in the three games Quinn has played this season.
Look for the Jets to keep the Cowboys off balance with short passes to running back Le’Veon Bell, who is tied for first among all running backs with eight targets per game. Bell also ranks second with 6.8 receptions per game. This should be effective as Dallas is tied for second with 37 receptions allowed to opposing running backs. — Mike Randle
Sean Koerner's Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: -7
- Projected Total: 43.5
Darold is set to return after a bout with mono, which bumped my Jets rating up by about three points. It’s important to remember that the Jets also lost backup Trevor Siemian and were forced to turn to third-stringer Luke Falk. Getting Darnold back, as a result, is going to be a bigger boost to their offense than people realize.
He’s also likely not going to be 100% this week, but I’ll likely add another point to the Jets power rating once we can confirm that he’s fully recovered. Either way, the spread and total match up with mine, so this is a no bet for me. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
The Jets have struggled offensively without Darnold. In Week 5, they scored only six points. Despite Darnold being cleared to start for Sunday, there's lopsided betting action on the Cowboys.
More than 70% of spread tickets are backing Dallas as more than a touchdown favorite on the road as of writing (see live public betting data here). Oddsmakers understand that recency bias will affect the judgement of casual bettors. The public wants no part of the Jets against America’s Team and this likely has led bookmakers to inflate the lines against Dallas.
Contrarian gamblers have profited by going against the grain and betting low-scoring teams like the Jets as teams to tend to bounce back after bad outings. This strategy is even more effective if there is lopsided public action. Gamblers following this Pro System have gone 148-95-4 (61%) against the spread since 2003, returning a profit of $4,430 for a $100 bettor.
The Jets are a match for this system. — John Ewing
Expert Picks
Stuckey: Jets +7
I’m not a Darnold truther by any stretch, but I think he could be a solid starting quarterback one day with further development. That said, he’s an enormous upgrade over Falk. He can actually throw the ball downfield and gives the Jets offense some semblance of hope.
As a result, I think the line should’ve moved from 9/9.5 to below 7, which mainly stems from not having to play Falk, who you may recall was originally the Jets third-stringer.
And that’s even before factoring in the potential absences of Cowboys offensive tackles. They are two of the best in the business and the best tackle tandem in the NFL for my money. The entire Cowboy offense, from the running game to play action to passing down success, all starts with their elite offensive line. The offense becomes very pedestrian without those two.
I think we'll see an inspired effort from the winless Jets at home, while the Cowboys may be looking ahead to the Eagles next Sunday night.
The Jets' defense — which has actually played well lately, all things considered — should also get some help at linebacker with the likely return of Brandon Copeland and Jordan Jenkins, who will help off the edge. They Jets are allowing just 3.4 yards per carry, which ranks in the top five league wide.
Darnold gives the offense a chance and I couldn’t pass up taking +7.5 with the home team here in a game I make at least +6.5 before factoring in the potential enormous overtime injuries for Dallas. I’d take anything at +7 or better with the Jets.
