All odds as of Saturday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens
- Spread: Ravens -11
- Over/Under: 42.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: The public isn’t buying into the idea of Lamar Jackson as a double-digit favorite. The abysmal Raiders are commanding 48% of spread bets 55% of the money at the time of writing (see live odds and data here).
The line hasn't moved much, though, and sharp bettors are still weighing in on the spread. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: John Harbaugh enters this game with an 81-81-8 regular season record against the spread as Ravens head coach.
One area where he's struggled? When playing bad teams (won fewer than 25% of their games), Harbaugh is just just 4-10 against the spread (28.6%) since 2010, making him the least-profitable coach in the NFL in that spot, losing bettors six units. — Evan Abrams
According to our Bet Labs data, teams favored by double digits against bad opponents (won 25% of their games or less) have struggled to cover, going 105-132-5 (44%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Did you know? Jackson this week will become the first Ravens quarterback not named Joe Flacco to be listed as a favorite in consecutive starts since Kyle Boller in 2007. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Ravens offensive line vs. Raiders pass rush
The Raiders are the only team in the league without double-digit sacks for the season (nine sacks total). For context, the Ravens sacked Marcus Mariota 11 times in a Week 6 blowout of the Titans.
The Ravens’ offensive line is tentatively expected to have left tackle Ronnie Stanley (leg), but right tackle James Hurst (back) looks like he'll sit.
Ultimately, it’s hard to see a Raiders’ front-seven without a single player graded among PFF’s top-30 defenders this season pressuring Lamar Jackson too often. — Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Raiders
The Ravens will likely again be without Flacco (hip) and right tackle Hurst (back). Slot corner Tavon Young (ankle), left tackle Stanley (leg and linebacker Tim Williams (ankle) aren’t guaranteed to suit up either.
The Raiders are really thin at receiver with Jordy Nelson (knee) and Martavis Bryant (knee) potentially joining Brandon LaFell (Achilles, IR) on the bench, but their other starters are all expected to suit up.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Willie Snead is one of nine players with at least seven targets in seven consecutive games, and he had a team-high eight targets in Jackson’s first career start last week.
The only problem is that Jackson threw only 19 total targets. For reference, Flacco’s fewest pass attempts in a game this season was 34 back in Week 1.
While Snead carries some upside this week, don't forget about Smokey Brown, whose big-play ability has as good a chance as ever of cashing in this week against one of only two defenses in the league that has allowed double-digit completions of 40-plus yards this season.
Snead and Brown cost $4,400 and $5,400, respectively, on DraftKings and each carry projected ceilings of at least 18 points. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Ravens -11
This may seem like the squarest of the square plays, but after Oakland won last week I’m sure they are at least getting some attention in the market from bettors as valuable.
I don’t buy it at all, though.
We already know how poorly this team is being coached and managed, and we also know how much Jon Gruden hates traveling (during their London trip he talked at great length about his dislike for long travel).
In their first trip to the East coast this season, the Raiders lost by eight to the Dolphins. And in the aforementioned London game, they lost by 24 to the Seahawks, though it might as well have been a million.
Now on back-to-back travel weeks (they were in Arizona last week), Oakland faces a mobile quarterback who requires different game-planning. I trust Gruden exactly 0% to have his team ready to play and prepared in this spot. — Ken Barkley
Betting odds: New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
- Spread: Eagles -4.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: The market is split on this game, with bettors unsure of whether to buy low on the reigning Super Bowl champs or fade them given their recent struggles.
The line at Pinnacle has been quite unstable, opening at -5.5, dropping to -4.5, going up to -6 and returning back to the opener of -5.5 as of Saturday (check out the live data here).
It will take some sharper action to move the line closer to the key numbers of -3 or -7. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Giants have won back-to-back games for the first time since Week 15 of the 2016 season. When Eli Manning is on a winning streak, he's 7-14 against the spread vs. division opponents in the next game, according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
John is right: Manning is the least-profitable quarterback in this spot, losing bettors 7.2 unit.
And you want to hear something weird? When Manning faces a non-divisional opponent while on a winning streak, the Giants are 27-16 ATS, profiting bettors 10.6 units.
That makes him the NFL's third-most profitable quarterback in that spot, behind just Drew Brees and Tom Brady. Go figure. — Evan Abrams
The Eagles lost 48-7 to the Saints in Week 11. There is no shame losing to a good team, in fact it has been profitable to bet teams after a blowout loss to a quality opponent. — Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Eagles secondary
When wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. played the Eagles in Week 6, he disappointed with a 6-44-0 performance on 10 targets as the Giants endured a 34-13 loss to their divisional foes.
But this Eagles secondary is drastically different than the one he faced six weeks ago.
No. 1 cornerback Ronald Darby (knee) is on injured reserve. No. 2 cornerback Jalen Mills (foot) hasn’t played since Week 8. No. 3 cornerback Sidney Jones (hamstring) returned to action in Week 11 after missing Weeks 7-10, but he left the game early after aggravating his injury. And backup corners Rasul Douglas (knee) and Avonte Maddox (knee) are both questionable.
On top of that, free safety Rodney McLeod (knee, IR) is out, so the Eagles are more exploitable than they usually are deep.
No NFL wide receiver in history has more receptions or receiving yards through 57 games than Beckham's 382 and 5,356.
Whatever the yardage prop ends up being for Beckham, it will be too low. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Giants
The only Giants player listed on the injury report is defensive end Kerry Wynn (concussion). The Eagles will welcome back defensive tackle Timmy Jernigan (back), but are expected to again be without Darren Sproles (hamstring).
As Freedman noted above, their secondary is an absolute mess, with cornerbacks Maddox (leg), Jones (hamstring), and Mills (foot) could join Ronald Darby (knee, IR) on the bench. Middle linebacker Jordan Hicks (calf) is also banged up.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Odell Beckham leads the Giants with a 29.5% target share, and he could be in an eruption spot against a depleted secondary.
His 30-point projected ceiling in our FantasyLabs Models leads all receivers on Sunday’s main slate. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Over 47
We know the Eagles can score on the Giants, putting up 34 on New York a few weeks ago in the Meadowlands. They might not quite match that again on Sunday, but playing the NFL's worst pass rush, Carson Wentz will have all day to pick apart an underperforming Giants secondary.
I expect this to be Golden Tate's breakout game for Philly; he's had a few weeks to get used to playing with Wentz and now faces the 28th-ranked defense in DVOA at defending slot receivers.
The Giants' terrible offensive line is usually a concern for Eli Manning & Co., but it shouldn't be a massive disadvantage against an Eagles team that ranks just 20th in adjusted sack rate.
If Eli has time to throw, Odell Beckham should have an absolutely massive game against a banged up Eagles secondary that just got roasted for 14 catches, 249 yards and 2 TDs combined from the Saints' Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith.
Odell has better big-play ability than Tre'Quan and is just as proficient of a red-zone weapon as Thomas, so this is a nightmare matchup for the Eagles in every sense.
The kicker? Both of the Eagles and Giants defenses are falling off a cliff, ranking 26th and 27th in Weighted DVOA, which factors in recent results more than games from the early season. Is it injuries? A lack of motivation? Probably all of the above.
Given how these two teams match up, I thought this total would fall somewhere in the 50s. Take that extra few points of value and run. — Scott Miller
Betting odds: New England Patriots at New York Jets
- Spread: Patriots -10.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: Attracting 90% of spread bets, the Patriots look like they'll be the most popular bet of the week. Despite the public onslaught, they’ve remained in the -10 range, with only a couple of books moving up to -10.5.
The over/under has bounced between from 47 and 46 with 79% of the dollars coming in on the over (You can find updated odds here). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Both the Patriots and Jets enter this game coming off a bye and for Tom Brady having some before prep before a road game at the MetLife Stadium may be a good thing.
Over the past decade, Brady is 2-7 against the spread (22.2%) on the road against the Jets, his least profitable road opponent.
According to our Bet Labs data, Brady has only lost more than one unit on the road to three different teams over the past decade: Jets (-5), Dolphins (-2.2), Jaguars (-2). — Evan Abrams
The Patriots are coming off a bye week. With extra time to prepare (at least eight days between games) the Patriots have gone 29-16-3 (64%) ATS in the regular season since 2003. — John Ewing
Teams have historically been profitable after a bye week. The optimal situation to bet teams following a bye is as a road favorite: +24.9 units since 2003. —Ewing
Did you know? Brady has faced a divisional opponent on the road off a bye three times in his career. He is 3-0 straight up and ATS, winning by 46, 22 and 14 points. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Patriots defensive backs vs Jets wide receivers
Wide receiver Robby Anderson (ankle) missed practice on Wednesday and seems unlikely to play even though he had the Week 11 bye to recover. In his absence, Quincy Enunwa will serve as the primary outside receiver for the Jets.
While Anderson opens up the field for his teammates and is a big-play deep threat with his 16.9-yard average depth of target (aDOT), Enunwa is an underneath possession receiver who tends to stick fairly close to the line of scrimmage. His 6.7 aDOT would be embarrassing even for most tight ends.
On the outside, cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and Jason McCourty have collectively held receivers to a 50% catch rate on 112 targets. They tend to play tight coverage, which is why they allow so few receptions.
Their aggressiveness also makes them vulnerable deep, and perhaps if Anderson were active, he’d be able to get free for a couple of big plays, but Enunwa isn’t the type of receiver who will threaten Gilmore or McCourty down the field.
With a No. 1 receiver who doesn’t run deep facing two cornerbacks who sit on routes, the Jets will likely struggle to get much going in the passing game outside of the numbers. — Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Patriots
The Patriots are actually approaching a clear injury report coming out of their Week 11 bye. Julian Edelman (ankle), Brady (knee), Sony Michel (knee) and Rob Gronkowski (ankle, back) are expected to suit up Sunday, so the only real question marks are backup tight end Dwayne Allen (knee) and right guard Shaq Mason (calf).
The Jets, on the other hand, are expected to again be without Sam Darnold (foot). Safety Marcus Maye (shoulder, thumb), left guard James Carpenter (shoulder) along with receivers Enunwa (ankle) and Anderson (ankle) could also join Darnold on the sideline.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Since Julian Edelman’s return, he leads the Patriots with 9.3 targets per game and has a fantastic matchup in the slot against Buster Skrine, who is PFF's No. 99 graded corner of 111 qualifying corners.
He has a 20.1-point ceiling projection on FanDuel with a 94% Bargain Rating. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Jets +10.5
I do not like making this bet, but the math tells me to do it. (Our Bet Labs model has this true line at Jets +5.8.)
When we last saw the Jets, they were being blown out by the Los Angeles Rams. Wait, what? Oh no, it was actually the Buffalo freaking Bills.
So after looking like a total laughing stock against the worst team in the league, I’m throwing my money down on the Jets against the best bet in football over the past decade.
You don’t always have to like every bet you make. In this case, I cringed as I hit submit, but I’ll continue to trust the numbers and data that points toward the Jets being in a good spot here. — Travis Reed
Betting odds: Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
- Spread: Panthers -3
- Over/Under: 47
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: After opening as three-point favorites, the Panthers moved up to -4 within a half hour. But by Monday morning, they were back to -3 (find updated odds and data here).
The Seahawks are getting a slight majority of bets, but the money is on Carolina at a 2-to-1 clip, which has helped keep this spread glued to the key number of 3. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: In Russell Wilson’s career, he is 17-7-2 against the spread as an underdog in the regular season, but over the past two seasons he is just 6-5-1 ATS when getting points. — John Ewing
As great as Wilson has been as an underdog in his career, Cam Newton is flirting with the same type of success at home against quality opponents.
According to our Bet Labs data, Newton is 21-12 ATS (63.6%), profiting bettors 7.8 units, when playing teams with a positive point differential at home, making him the NFL's third-most profitable quarterback in this spot.
When Newton enters these games off of a loss, he has gone 10-4 ATS, including 5-1 ATS since 2015.
Not to mention, Newton is 7-3 ATS in his career off consecutive straight-up losses and is 10-3 ATS at home coming off a road trip of at least two games.
Newton lost both road games in that spot five times in his career and Carolina is 5-0 ATS in that home game, covering the spread by 10.7 PPG. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Carolina’s defensive line vs. Seattle’s offensive line
Shut down the run and you can slow down Seattle’s offense, which relies on the run more than any team in the NFL (the Seahawks run the ball a league-leading 32.3 times per game).
Carolina’s defensive line can do just that, with its run stuffers up the middle. The Panthers rank No. 1 in the NFL in defending the run up the middle, per adjusted line yards. On the whole, the Panthers' D-line ranks No. 3 vs. the run, according to Football Outsiders' metric.
Add in their excellent linebacker corps and the Panthers should force Seattle into plenty of third-and-long situations, which spells trouble against a Seahawks offensive line that struggles to pass protect, ranking 29th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Seahawks
Wide receiver Torrey Smith (knee), cornerback James Bradberry (shoulder) and linebacker Shaq Thompson (shoulder) are the only Panthers at risk of missing Sunday’s game.
The Seahawks are also in a better spot, with K.J. Wright (knee), Doug Baldwin (groin) and Mike Davis (knee) seemingly at risk of being limited come Sunday.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: The Panthers receivers are set up well against the Seahawks secondary. Justin Coleman (88th), Tre Flowers (92nd) and Shaquill Griffin (106th) all rank poorly in PFF grades. The trouble is, at the time of writing, there’s some murkiness around their receivers.
Devin Funchess (back) didn’t practice Wednesday and Torrey Smith (knee) returned to practice. Both players' participation or non-participation on Sunday will affect the outlook of D.J. Moore, who costs just $4,600 on DraftKings.
Funchess’ potential absence would free up 21.5% of the Panthers’ targets share, resulting in a boost for Moore, along with Greg Olsen and Christian McCaffrey.
Be sure to monitor Funchess and Smith on the FantasyLabs NFL newsfeed. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Panthers -2.5 1H
The Panthers dropped two straight games, and now return home to face the Seahawks, who are coming off of a win against the Packers and well-rested due to playing on Thursday night last week.
Let’s start with Carolina. Losing to the Steelers in primetime was excusable, but the loss to Lions, who were down multiple weapons, was not.
I think Carolina will bounce back nicely in this spot at home facing a Seattle team on extra rest, which oddly enough has not been a great thing for Wilson. He is 9-15-1 ATS (37.5%) in his career with extended rest, including 2-10-1 ATS (16.7%) in his past 13 games.
Newton is 40-22-1 (64.5%) against the first half spread at home, including 15-7-1 (68.2%) when he is coming off a loss in his last game. Since 2015, Cam is 6-0-1 against the first half spread at home off a loss, covering the spread by 9.7 PPG.
And from a pure matchup perspective, Like Carolina's advantage in the run game. Seattle ranks 19th against the rush and the Panthers' offensive line run-blocking (ninth) should have a large advantage over the Seahawks' D-line (23rd). — Evan Abrams
Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
- Spread: Bengals -3
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: The line movement on this game has been essentially nonexistent, as the Bengals have remained 3-point favorites since opening.
No waves of sharp action have come in as of yet, so there’s been no reason for oddsmakers to move the spread off the key number of three. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Cincinnati has lost two in a row but Andy Dalton has been good to bettors in this spot. In his career, Dalton is 12-6-1 against the spread when on a losing streak, covering on average by 6.2 points per game.
Dalton has also excelled against the Browns going 11-3 straight up and 9-4-1 ATS. — John Ewing
Referee report: Jerome Boger is the head official for this game, which could be good news for over bettors. Boger is the most profitable official to the over since 2008, , according to our Bet Labs data.
The over is 93-65-1 (58.9%) in Boger's 159-game career (both regular season and playoffs) and 17-8 in the last four seasons. — Evan Abrams
Which team is healthier? Browns
Interim head coach Gregg Williams told the media that the Browns are as healthy as they’ve been since the preseason. The only key players that appear to be at any risk of missing Sunday’s game are center J.C. Tretter (ankle) and tight end David Njoku (knee).
Meanwhile, the Bengals are dealing with injuries to left tackle Cordy Glenn (back), cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder), wide receiver A.J. Green (toe) and linebacker Nick Vigil (knee).
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
Biggest mismatch: Browns running backs vs. Bengals linebackers
I can confidently say that Cincinnati has had the worst linebacker play of any team this season — and now the position is in as bad of shape as it has been all season.
The team placed Preston Brown on IR this week, and Vigil is not practicing. Meanwhile, Vontaze Burfict is clearly still not at 100%.
That leaves Hardy Nickerson in the middle and he simply doesn’t have the speed or coverage skills to match up with NFL-caliber tight ends and running backs.
The same can be said of Vincent Rey and Jordan Evans, each of whom will get significant playing time on Sunday. This might be the slowest linebacker corps I’ve seen in quite some time.
As you might expect, the Bengals linebackers have allowed the most yards of any group in the league, and rank 32nd in the NFL defending backs in the passing game, per Football Outsiders.
Just look at what a one-dimensional Ravens' offense running a college scheme did in rookie Lamar Jackson’s first start. The linebackers pretty much knew what was coming and still couldn’t stop it.
Baker Mayfield is a much more polished passer than Jackson and thrives when throwing to his backs out of the backfield. Expect big days from Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson out of the backfield. — Stuckey
DFS edge: After a few disappointing outings over the past few weeks, Jarvis Landry’s price is at its second-lowest point of the season on DraftKings ($5,900).
The last time he was this cheap was when he was $5,500 against the Steelers in Week 1. The volume is still there for Landry as he’s seeing 27% of their market share of targets.
The Bengals have been throttled by players in the slot this year, allowing 146.3 receiving yards per game to slot receivers, the second-highest mark in the league. —Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Browns +3
I previously mentioned how much success the running backs can have in the passing game against a very slow group of linebackers. Well, the Browns can also take advantage of that group with Mayfield’s legs (as Jackson did last week rushing for over 100 yards) while Landry and Njoku should have plenty of space in the middle of the field.
I also haven’t even mentioned Cleveland’s regular rushing attack, which ranks seventh in the NFL at 4.8 yards per carry. That unit should thrive against a Bengals defense that allows 5.0 yards per rush (30th in the NFL) — due to those same weak linebackers and a defensive line that simply hasn’t lived up to the hype — outside of Geno Atkins.
In fact, the Bengals’ defensive line ranks 31st in the NFL in adjusted line yards, per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns' defensive line can take advantage of an abysmal Cincinnati offensive line, especially with starting LT Cordy Glenn (who hasn’t been great himself) listed on the injury report.
Green also didn’t practice on Wednesday, and without him at 100%, the Browns have a capable enough secondary to contain a Bengals' passing attack that has already lost a number of key targets.
Bottom line: The Browns can take advantage of the Bengals' primary weaknesses, especially when on offense. They are also much healthier and coming off of a bye. I think Cincy's free fall continues. — Stuckey
Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Spread: Buccaneers -2.5
- Over/Under: 54
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: As was the case in Nick Mullens’ second start, the 49ers are getting fewer than 50% of spread bets at the time of writing, but the line is moving in their favor.
They've moved from +4 at some books all the way down to +2.5 (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Niners had their bye week in Week 11. According to our Bet Labs data, bad teams that have won 25% or less of their games, like San Francisco, playing on the road with 13 or more days to prepare for an opponent have gone 30-18 ATS since 2003. — John Ewing
Jameis Winston is scheduled to start for Tampa Bay. In his career, Winston is 4-10 as a favorite (-6.3 units). He is the second-least profitable quarterback as a favorite since he was drafted in 2015, ahead of only Matt Ryan. — Evan Abrams
Did you know? The Buccaneers have turned over the ball 29 times this season and only have six takeaways on defense. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Bucs passing offense vs. 49ers pass defense
The 49ers’ 32nd-ranked pass-coverage unit by Pro Football Focus will have its work cut out against Todd Monken's Air Raid offense. Even with the Tampa Bay quarterback carousel this season, the Bucs' offensive attack has been successful no matter who is behind center.
Overall, they’ve thrown for 25 touchdowns (fourth), averaged 9.1 yards per attempt (third), while posting a league-high 361.0 passing yards per game, according to Pro Football Reference. — Justin Bailey
Which team is healthier? 49ers
The Bucs are banged up on defense, with linebacker Lavonte David (knee) tentatively expected to again join linebackers Kwon Alexander (knee, IR) and Jack Cichy (knee, IR) on the sideline.
The likes of wide receiver DeSean Jackson (thumb), center Ryan Jensen (hamsting), cornerback M.J. Stewart (leg) and safeties Jordan Whitehead (concussion) and Justin Evans (toe) are also far from 100%.
The 49ers, on the other hand, are hopeful to have everyone with the potential exceptions of right guard Joshua Garnett (concussion) and wide receiver Pierre Garcon (knee).
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Jameis Winston has a sublime matchup in an extremely pass-heavy offense, and his +5.72 Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Player Models leads all quarterbacks for Sunday.
The Bucs own a solid 29-point implied team total on the main slate’s highest total (54.5) game. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Over 54
Another week, another Bucs over.
Thanks to their magnificent combination of high-scoring offense (26.7 points per game) and stone-worst defense (32.9 points per game allowed), the Bucs have an 8-2 over/under record this year, which is the best mark in the league for over bettors (per Bet Labs).
The Bucs are also banged up on defense, as Ian detailed earlier, making them extremely exploitable.
And as for the 49ers, they’re last in the league with a 42.0 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Both offenses should be able to move the ball at will. — Matthew Freedman
Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Jaguars -3
- Over/Under: 37
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: Buffalo has received multiple waves of sharp action at +4 and +3 vs. the Jaguars. Who would’ve thunk it?
Though Jacksonville is receiving more than 60% of bets at the time of writing, they’ve fallen from -4 to -3 since opening.
Buffalo is receiving more than half of spread dollars thus far (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant
Did you know? The Jags-Bills over/under of 37 is the lowest in the 2018 season. In the past three seasons, there have been 58 regular season games that closed with an over/under of fewer than 40 points. The over went 29-29 in those games. — John Ewing
Trends to know: Since 2003, games with a total below 40 in November or later are 263-226-5 (53.8%) to the over, but when one of the teams in the game is averaging fewer than 14 points per game, the under is actually 49-41-1 (54.4%), flipping the script on the trend over a large sample size. — Evan Abrams
The Jaguars have lost six in a row, which is currently the longest active losing streak in the NFL. Since 2010, only three teams have lost six consecutive games after making the playoffs the previous season and were listed as the favorite:
- 2015 Cowboys (-1) at Buccaneers: Lost, 10-6
- 2013 Texans (-10.5) vs. Raiders: Lost, 28-23
- 2010 Bengals (-4) vs. Bills: Lost, 49-31 — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Jags secondary vs. Bills pass game
The Jaguars haven’t quite been the same world-beaters on defense as they were in 2017, but the likes of Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye have still made life tough on opposing skill-position players.
Overall, the Jaguars have allowed bottom-five rates in DraftKings points allowed to both wide receivers and running backs this season.
The Bills’ inept passing “attack” is expected to welcome back Josh Allen (elbow), although their combined net yards per attempt rate with the Jaguars’ defense is easily the week’s worst mark in what figures to be a low-scoring affair. — Ian Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Bills
Neither team is particularly close to 100%, but the Bills are expected to welcome back Allen (elbow) under center for their matchup against the Jaguars.
It remains to be seen if Allen will be joined by tight end Charles Clay (hamstring), defensive ends Trent Murphy (knee) and Shaq Lawson (elbow), along with center Russell Bodine (shoulder).
The Jaguars are somehow worse off, as none of Jalen Ramsey (groin), right tackle Jermey Parnell (knee), defensive tackle Marcell Dareus (back), field-stretcher D.J. Chark (quad), left tackle Josh Walker (foot, ankle) nor right guard A.J. Cann (hamstring) managed to get in a full practice on Wednesday.
Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Bills cornerback Tre’Davious White and Richard Sherman are the only corners averaging more than 20 coverage snaps played per reception allowed. Still, the Bills have been selective about deploying their No. 1 corner in shadow coverage, letting White stay on the left side of the field against offenses without a clear No. 1 receiver.
This describes the Jaguars, who have fed T.J. Yeldon (25), Dede Westbrook (24), Donte Moncrief (23), D.J. Chark (19) and Keelan Cole (10) double-digit targets over their past four games.
The Bills, Ravens and Bears are the league’s only defenses allowing fewer than five yards per play, so this could actually be a good spot to target the Bills defense at just $2,700 on DraftKings.– Ian Hartitz
Bet to watch: Buffalo +3
At this point, the Jaguars aren’t much different from the Bills. The Jags rank sixth in defensive DVOA; the Bills rank second.
Six of each team’s seven losses have come against opponents currently .500 or better. But the Jags still have Blake Bortles, while the Bills will get back Josh Allen, who has more wins than Bortles over the past seven weeks despite the fact he hasn’t played a snap since Week 6.
Allen has also gotten better at limiting negative plays, taking three sacks and committing just one turnover over his past two starts. This is anyone’s game, so give me the team getting +3 at home. — Chris Raybon
Betting odds: Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
- Spread: Steelers -3
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: Pros have bought into the Broncos with multiple sharp action indicators being triggered on Denver at +3.5 and +3.
The Steelers are getting 72% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here), but the spread has moved in the Broncos' favor.— Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Ben Roethlisberger is 26-8 (76.5%) straight up when playing on the road in November or later against an opponent with a negative point differential, beating his opponents by an average of eight points per game.
He's played 10 of those 34 games coming off another road game. He's 9-1 SU, winning by 9.9 points per game, according to our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams
The Broncos rushed for 108 yards and averaged 5.7 yards per carry in their win over the Chargers last week, scorching Los Angeles' rush defense for three touchdowns on the ground.
Under Vance Joseph, the Broncos are 4-12 (25%) ATS the game after rushing for 100 or more yards. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Steelers OLB T.J. Watt vs. Broncos RT Jared Veldheer
Watt is having a breakout second season, averaging one sack per game and routinely displaying the power and speed that made him a first-round selection in the 2017 draft.
Lining up almost exclusively on the left side of the defense, Watt has benefitted from facing right tackles this season. And while Veldheer has had a respectable career, he hasn’t had a Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade higher than 62.5 since 2016. Of Denver’s five starting linemen, Veldheer has the lowest PFF grade.
Because of the interior pressure defensive end Cameron Heyward and nose tackle Javon Hargrave generate, the Broncos will be unable to give Veldheer significant blocking support along the line. As a result, Watt could have a big game rushing the passer one-on-one vs. Veldheer.
Watt already has three multi-sack games on the season: When he has an advantageous matchup, he really exploits it. And this matchup is definitely in his favor.— Matthew Freedman
Which team is healthier? Steelers
Both teams are fairly healthy entering this matchup. The Broncos are could potentially only be without safety Dymonte Thomas (ankle), linebacker Brandon Marshall (knee), cornerback Bradley Roby (concussion) and wide receiver DaeSean Hamilton (knee).
The Steelers are even better positioned. Only defensive tackle Stephon Tuitt (elbow) and right tackle Marcus Gilbert (knee) are dealing with major injuries.
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: It’s tough to overstate just how great Chris Harris Jr. has been in the slot for the better part of the past half decade. Overall, he’s led all NFL slot corners in most coverage snaps per reception allowed in four consecutive seasons.
This is bad news for JuJu Smith-Schuster, who has spent 72% of his snaps in the slot this season.
Antonio Brown has a league-high 11 touchdowns through 10 games, but only five opposing wide receivers have gained more than 100 yards in Denver over the past five seasons.
The Broncos' defense ranks fourth in Football Outsiders' overall and pass DVOA this season. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Broncos +3
There is a shortfall between the market perception of the Broncos and their performance, especially at home.
Yes, they're an unimpressive 4-6, but they've played one of the most difficult schedules. Let’s focus on their home games. After opening the season with two straight home wins, the Broncos have lost three straight home games to the Texans, Chiefs and Rams — three division leaders with a combined 26-6 record.
You might say: "If they lost to division leaders, they will do so again vs. Pittsburgh." But it's about how the Broncos lost those games: A missed game-winning field goal as time expired against the Texans — a game the Broncos should have won — then by only three points to the Rams and by four to the Chiefs, who had to rally in the fourth quarter.
The Broncos also lost on the road to the Chiefs, which means four of Denver's six losses have come to division leaders, and all in one possession games.
The Steelers have played one of the NFL's softer schedules. They've also benefited from a down season in the AFC North and from being on the right side of late-game magic. While the Broncos are coming off a road win against a team above .500, the Steelers have played only two teams above .500 all season. Both came at home, and they split. The Broncos have played five such games.
Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers have historically come out flat on the road against teams below .500: He's a horrifying 15-28-1 ATS (34.9%) for a -28.1% ROI on the road against teams below .500, failing to cover by almost a field goal per game, which is close to what I think this line is off by.
Tomlin is more of a player’s coach who relies on emotion more than X's and O's. He struggles to get his team up for games against inferior opponents on the road — look no further than last week, when the Steelers came out completely disinterested against the Jaguars,
His road moneyline record paints an even better picture: Tomlin has won 68.3% of his road games against opponents above .500, but only 54.5% against opponents below .500.
A few late-game breaks and a much easier schedule has driven a perception gap that is larger than reality.
I think the Broncos end the Steelers' six-game winning streak but will gladly take the points in another inflated line. — Stuckey
Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts
- Spread: Colts -7.5
- Over/Under: 51
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: CBS
Betting market: This line was quite stable until news broke that Ryan Tannehill would be returning.
Initially 10-point dogs, the Dolphins moved to +9 after the announcement. The line moved even more on Wednesday morning thanks to a steam move, driving them to +7.5.
Miami had been a trendy dog with Brock Osweiler set to start and remains one with Tannehill under center, getting 55% of spread bets as of writing (see live data here). — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Dolphins are averaging 19.9 points per game, which ranks 26th in the NFL.
Andrew Luck has had a ton of success when facing teams with poor offenses. According to our Bet Labs data, he's 19-6-2 (76%) against the spread when facing a team averaging fewer than 20 points per game, profiting bettors 12.6 units and making him the second-most profitable NFL quarterback behind Tom Brady. — Evan Abrams
Need a survivor pick or moneyline parlay spot?Luck is 33-12 straight-up as a favorite, including 9-1 SU when listed as a touchdown favorite. His only loss came in 2013. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Colts' run blocking vs. Dolphins' front-seven
Starting Colts center Ryan Kelly (knee) has been ruled out, but the rest of the league’s third-ranked offensive line in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards per rush is set up well against the Dolphins' 17th-ranked defensive line.
Marlon Mack’s combined adjusted line yards per attempt rate (9.35) is the fifth-highest mark this week. — Ian Hartitz
Which team is healthier? Colts
The Colts are hoping to have safeties Malik Hooker (hip) and Clayton Geathers (knee), but cornerback Nate Hairston (ankle) again looks questionable while Kelly has already been ruled out.
The Dolphins are dealing with several more injuries. Safety T.J. McDonald (knee), tight end A.J. Derby (foot, knee), wide receivers Danny Amendola (hamstring) and DeVante Parker (shoulder), running back Kenyan Drake (shoulder) aren't guaranteed to suit up Sunday.
Same goes for starting offensive linemen Ted Larsen (neck), right Tackle Ja’Waun JAmes (knee) and left tackle Laremy Tunsil (knee) aren't guaranteed to suit up Sunday.
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz
DFS edge: Luck joins Dan Marino, Peyton Manning and Brady as the only quarterbacks to throw three or more touchdowns in at least seven consecutive games.
The only "problem" with Luck’s performance is that fantasy investors have had a tough time nailing down exactly who will reap Luck’s rewards any given week.
T.Y. Hilton has been the clear-cut No. 1 receiver since the team's Week 9 bye, but the rest of passing game's pecking order has been muddled over the past two weeks.
Hilton and Luck have historically been better inside the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium (per our FantasyLabs Trends tool), and Hilton’s $6,500 price tag on DraftKings comes with a +2.4 Projected Plus/Minus. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Dolphins +7.5
NFL lines are set based on recent performance. The Colts trucked the Titans in a 38-10 win last week as Luck threw three touchdowns and Hilton caught nine balls for 155 receiving yards and two scores.
Given Indy's recent play, it's fair to suggest that the Colts' line will be inflated in Week 12.
Contrarian gamblers can profit by fading teams after strong showings at home. Since 2003, teams that won their previous game at home by 21 or more points have gone 173-221-14 (44%) ATS the following week.
Bettors fading teams like the Colts have returned a profit of +43.73 units over that span. — John Ewing
Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
- Spread: Chargers -13
- Over/Under: 44
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
Betting market: With nearly 70% of bets and more than 80% of dollars at the time of writing (see live data here), the Chargers have moved from large favorites to gigantic favorites. At BookMaker, they’ve gone from -11 to -12, and at Pinnacle, they’ve gone from -11.5 to -13. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Cardinals have struggled offensively, averaging 14.5 points per game (31st in the NFL). Many recreational gamblers will fade Arizona given its poor offensive performance, but that could be mistake on Sunday.
Since 2003, teams that average 20 or fewer points per game have gone 198-158-10 (55.5%) against the spread when getting double-digit points, per our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing
Philip Rivers and the Chargers lost a nail-biter to the Broncos, 23-22, on a last-second field goal at home.
Rivers is 21-13-1 (61.8%) ATS, profiting bettors 7.4 units coming off a home loss, making him the most profitable quarterback in that spot since he made his first start in 2006.
But there's a catch: When Rivers plays at home in his next game, the Chargers are only 5-7 ATS, failing to cover six of his past seven games straight-up and against the spread. — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram vs. Cardinals' offensive line
The Chargers' pass-rush has struggled this season — they're 21st in pressure rate, per Sports Info Solutions — but they did get Bosa back last week, and he generated two pressures, one quarterback hit and one hurry on 31 snaps.
Even if he's playing limited snaps, Bosa could be a terror in the trenches against a Cardinals offensive line that ranks 21st in Football Outsiders' adjusted sack rate.
Additionally, Ingram is Pro Football Focus' No. 13 pass-rushing defensive end. He’s generated 43 pressures, six sacks, nine hits and 28 hurries through 10 games.
Given that the Cardinals are 13-point underdogs, the Chargers could have plenty of opportunities for sacks in this game.— Justin Bailey
Which team is healthier? Chargers
Bosa (foot) will start Sunday, but will have to go on without starting defensive tackle Corey Liuget (quad, IR). Wide receiver Tyrell Williams (quad) and running back Austin Ekeler (neck) are tentatively expected to suit up.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are dealing with several more injuries. Linebacker Deone Bucannon (chest), wide receiver Chad Williams (ankle), slot corner Budda Baker (knee), safety Rudy Ford (heel) and left tackle D.J. Humphries (knee) didn't practice to open the week.
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: As a 13-point home favorite, this game sets up well for Melvin Gordon, who is averaging 20.6 touches per game. Per our FantasyLabs Trends tool, running backs with comparable salaries and spreads have averaged a +1.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Gordon’s +4.59 Projected Plus/Minus leads all running backs on FanDuel. — Bailey
Bet to watch: Chargers -13
The Cardinals’ new-found "success" on offense under offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is encouraging for David Johnson fantasy owners, but they’ve scored 21 or fewer points in mouth-watering matchups against the 49ers, Chiefs and Raiders.
Up next is a Chargers defense that's expected to have Bosa for a full complement of snaps for the first time this season.
Add in an injury-riddled Cardinals defense and rookie quarterback on the road, and I’ll take the Chargers to win by at least two touchdowns.— Hartitz
Betting odds: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
- Spread: Vikings -3
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV channel: NBC
Betting market: The Packers have been way more popular, and sportsbooks apparently haven't been able to keep up with the action. Some books have moved from +4 to +3.5, while other have gone from +3.5 to +3.
With Green Bay commanding more than 70% of bets as of writing (see live data here), it'll be interesting to see whether the Packers can move past the key number of +3 to +2.5. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Aaron Rodgers is 38-20 against the spread vs. the NFC North. This is just the seventh time he's been listed as an underdog against a division rival. In the previous six games, he's 0-5-1 straight-up and 3-3 ATS. — John Ewing
Rodgers will make his 13th start inside of a dome since the 2014 season (including playoffs). The Packers averaged only 22.1 points per game in the previous 12 games and are just 4-8 straight-up and 5-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 points per game.
The defense allowed an average of 29.8 points in those 12, including 30 or more points in seven of them. — Evan Abrams
Did you know?Rodgers and the Packers have lost seven consecutive games SU on the road, which is the longest road losing streak of his career.
Prior to this, Rodgers had only lost five straight road games … in 2008. The Packers' current seven-game road losing streak is their longest as a franchise since 1978-79, when they lost nine consecutive road games. — Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Vikings' situational defense
The Vikings can't run the ball, and the Packers struggle to defend the run. The Packers rank second in yards per attempt (5.1), while the Vikings excel at defending the run, ranking second at only 3.6 yards per rush allowed.
Injuries at receiver have really hurt the Packers on third downs, while injuries in their secondary will hurt against Kirk Cousins and his reliable targets.
Both offenses have been fairly average on third downs — the Vikings have been a little better, ranking 17th vs. the Packers at 19th — but Minnesota’s defense ranks first in third-down defense at a stingy 28.32%, which is right in line with its league-leading 2017 clip. That’s almost seven percentage points better than the Bears, who rank second in the conference.
Green Bay’s defense has actually performed OK on third down, but is still significantly worse than Minnesota. The Packers still haven’t been nearly as good on the road, where they're 0-5.
The Vikings rank No. 1 in red-zone defense, allowing teams to score only touchdowns on 40% of trips, while the Packers have allowed teams to get in the end zone at higher than a 55% clip.
Minnesota is also much more likely to force turnovers, as it ranks in the top 10 in takeaways per game while Green Bay ranks 22nd and has only one interception in its past three games since trading safety Ha Ha Clinton Dix.
That’s not surprising with the amount of rookies the Packers are relying on due to that trade and a number of injuries in the defensive backfield.
In a game that should be close, keeping the chains moving, converting in the red zone and a key turnover will likely be the difference.
The Vikings certainly have the edge in all three departments against a Packers team that's playing its fourth road game in its past five. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Vikings
The Vikings are dealing with injuries to safety Andrew Sendejo (groin), left guard Tom Compton (knee), right guard Mike Remmers (lower back) and linebacker Anthony Barr (hamstring). The good news is that stud receiver Adam Thielen (calf, lower back) is expected to suit up.
Meanwhile, the Packers face question marks with tight end Jimmy Graham (thumb, knee), cornerbacks Kevin King (hamstring) and Bashaud Breeland (groin), along with front-seven starters Nick Perry (knee) and Mike Daniels (foot).
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz
DFS edge: Davante Adams won his first matchup against Xavier Rhodes this season, catching 8-of-12 targets for 64 yards and a touchdown. Rodgers' undisputed No. 1 wide receiver has managed to find the end zone in each of his past three matchups against the Vikings.
Overall, Adams has scored a touchdown or surpassed 100 receiving yards in 24-of-33 games (73%) with Rodgers under center since 2016.
Adams deserves to be mentioned alongside DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown as the league’s most-matchup proof receivers, even in this brutally tough matchup against Rhodes. Adams is $8,000 on DraftKings and boasts a sensational 29.8-point projected ceiling. — Hartitz
Bet to watch: Packers +3
As Stuckey mentioned, the Packers are playing their fourth road game in five weeks, and the Vikings have been tougher at home on quarterbacks than any other team since head coach Mike Zimmer was hired in 2014, holding opponents to a league-low 201.6 net passing yards per game.
But the Packers are in an absolute must-win situation, they've had extra time to rest and prepare after playing on Thursday Night Football, and Rodgers has an A-graded 36-20-0 record ATS within division, which has been good for a 25.9% return on investment for Rodgers backers.
In fact, within our Bet Labs database, no quarterback has returned more money to in-division investors than Rodgers. And when Rodgers has had 10-plus days between games, he's 13-4-2 ATS with an impressive 4.21-point cover margin and 43.9% ROI. — Matthew Freedman
Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.1
