Your Ultimate NFL Week 17 Betting Guide: Tips, Picks, Strategies for Every Game

All odds as of Friday afternoon. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.

Betting odds: Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

• Spread: Giants -6
• Over/Under: 41
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The Cowboys could be resting everyone and some people probably think they should, seeing as they can do nothing to improve their seed in the playoff picture. However, they haven’t said they’re going to … yet.

The majority bettors are unfazed by the uncertainty, as 55% of tickets are on the Cowboys at the time of writing. It’s tough to bet on the Giants winning by a touchdown when you have no confirmation about Dallas’s plans.

With more than 90% of the early money on the under, the total has dropped a couple points down to 41 since opening (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Playoff picture: As Mark mentioned, the Cowboys have no incentive to care about this game. They're locked into the No. 4 in the NFC and will likely host Seattle in the wild-card round. — Scott T. Miller

Trends to know: Week 17 always creates quirky situations and in the Cowboys-Giants game, New York is favored by six points despite a 5-10 record.

In Eli Manning’s career, he is 18-11 against the spread (62.1%) when the G-Men are listed as the favorite in one of the last four games of the season.

Manning is the third-most profitable QB in our Bet Labs database in this spot, behind only Tom Brady and Matt Ryan. — Evan Abrams

Since 2003, teams with a losing record have gone 60-48-4 ATS when facing an opponent with a winning record in Week 17. Teams that are favored, like the Giants, have gone 12-5-1 ATS during that time. — John Ewing

Draft order: The Giants are currently in a tie with the Bills for the No. 7 overall draft pick. A win against Dallas could very well knock New York out of the top 10. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Giants Motivations vs. Cowboys Motivations

Even though the Giants should want to lose in order to improve their draft position, head coach Pat Shurmur and Manning have been coaching and playing for their 2019 jobs since they entered the Week 9 bye with a 1-7 record.

In the second half of the season, the Giants are 4-3 and have displayed a competitiveness they notably lacked in the first half.

• Giants, Weeks 1-8: 1-7 record, -6.88 differential, 18.75 points scored, 25.62 points allowed
• Giants, Weeks 10-16: 4-3 record, 1.86 differential, 26.29 points scored, 24.43 points allowed

Playing at home against division rivals bound for the playoffs, the Giants are motivated to win in order to “prove” that they are a postseason-caliber team that simply had a rough start to the season.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are locked into the No. 4 seed in the NFC. They have every reason to bench their key players to give them a de facto bye before the playoffs and ensure they are as healthy as possible.

In Week 17 of 2016, when the Cowboys were locked into the No. 1 seed, Jason Garrett opted to rest his key players for most of the game, losing 27-13 on the road to the sub-.500 Eagles. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Cowboys

With the Cowboys being a prime candidate to rest their starters, wide receiver Tavon Austin (groin) deserves a look. He's tentatively expected to return this week.

The Giants likely won’t rush back Odell Beckham Jr. (quad) for this meaningless game. The continued absence of Russell Shepard (ankle) could lead to more slot work for Sterling Shepard (hip), while the defense is dealing with injuries to defensive end Mario Edwards (hip), along with linebackers Alec Ogletree (concussion) and B.J. Goodson (foot).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS Edge: It’s hard to imagine the Cowboys play their starters for much/any of this game, which is shown in their 17.75 implied team total.

Meanwhile, Giants running back Saquon Barkley is trying to secure Offensive Rookie of the Year.

His 23.0 touches per game over the past six weeks rank third among all running backs, and Barkley's Ceiling Projection in our FantasyLabs Player Models leads all running backs by nearly 6.0 points.

It shouldn’t be difficult to find the salary to afford Barkley this week. —Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Giants -3 First Half

Like bowl season, motivation plays a key role in Week 17 of the NFL regular season.

Even though this a divisional game, the Cowboys will have their attention on their upcoming playoff game at home against Seattle (probably), not on the Giants, especially a week after clinching the NFC East at home.

The Cowboys and Garrett are saying the right things going into this week about motivation, but they’ve defeated New York three straight times, and I’ll wager on the fact that Dallas has bigger fish to fry.

Plus, if they show up early on, I’ll be looking for the Giants in the second half, whether it be the 2H spread or team total. — Evan Abrams

Betting odds: New York Jets at New England Patriots

• Spread: Patriots -13.5 
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The Pats have scared off some of the public bettors who are generally taking them no matter what, as just 53% are laying the 13.5 points in hopes that New England breaks its three game coverless streak.

Sharp bettors have yet to weigh in on either side and not much line movement has occurred at the time of writing.

The over/under has plummeted, though, as the under has been hit hard by pros and Joes, alike.

With a steam move, 75% of bets and 93% of dollars, the onslaught of under activity has caused the total to fall from 48 to 45 (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Patriots "finally" broke their losing streak last week against the Bills. However, a last-second touchdown from Josh Allen covered the spread for the Bills, forcing New England into a spot it has not been since January 2015.

Since 2010, Tom Brady is 3-0 straight up and against the spread coming off at least a three-game ATS losing streak, per our Bet Labs data.  — Evan Abrams

Since 2003, Tom Brady is 33-32 ATS as a double-digit favorite. In all other games as a favorite during that time the GOAT is 98-63-6 (61%) ATS. — John Ewing

Did you know? Since 2003, there have only been four instances where the Week 17 home team has a win percentage of 60% and is coming off at least three losses against the spread in a row. The Pats are one of three teams that meet this criteria in 2018 (Texans, Chiefs). The previous four teams all failed to cover. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Patriots clinch a first-round bye with a win over the Jets. It's also possible — but unlikely — for them to jump to the No. 1 overall seed. That would require a win and losses from the Chiefs and Chargers.

Should New England suffer an upset vs. the Jets, Brady & Co. would almost assuredly play on wild-card weekend as either the 3- or 4-seed in the AFC. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Julian Edelman vs. Buster Skrine

The best place to attack the Jets defense is in the middle of the field, as it ranks 13th in defensive DVOA on passes both the left and right, but 25th over the middle.

Since returning from suspension in Week 5, Edelman ranks second in the league in slot targets (63) and receptions (45) and third in yards (516), per data from Pro Football Focus.

He should be able to feast on Skrine, who has allowed a 75% completion rate, 8.6 yards per target, four touchdowns and zero interceptions, which translates to a 121.0 passer rating when targeted. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Patriots

Neither team will be resting starters in this one, so expect Tom Brady & Co. to attack hobbled cornerback Mo Claiborne (shoulder, ankle) while attempting to take advantage of a front-seven that could be without linebackers Jordan Jenkins (ankle) and Kevin Pierre-Louis (shoulder).

Wide receiver Robby Anderson should continue to work as Sam Darnold’s favorite target with neither Quincy Enunwa (ankle) nor Jermaine Kearse (Achilles) expected to suit up.

The potential absence of kicker Jason Myers (hip) certainly isn’t ideal for the Jets, either.

Meanwhile, the only Patriots on the injury report are backup tight end Jacob Hollister (hamstring) and full-time running back/part-time wide receiver Cordarrelle Patterson (knee).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Anderson has balled out ever since Darnold returned from injury in Week 14. He’s undoubtedly helped win a couple fantasy championships along the way.

• Weeks 1-13: 27 receptions, 416 yards, 3 TDs, PPR WR65
• Weeks 14-16: 20 receptions, 312 yards, 3 TDs, PPR WR2

Only DeAndre Hopkins has scored more points than Anderson over the past three weeks, and injuries to each of Enunwa (ankle) and Kearse (Achilles) ensure that Anderson's monstrous workload should remain intact.

Overall, Anderson (31) easily leads the likes of Chris Herndon (13), Eli McGuire (13) and Kearse (11) in targets since Sam Darnold returned in Week 14.

Still, the Patriots have proven to be Anderson's kryptonite over the years, as he's been held to less than 50 receiving yards in five of six career matchups and has yet to find the end zone against Bill Belichick & Co.

Gilmore held Anderson (2-22-0) in check back in Week 12, although that was with both Enunwa and Kearse active.

Anderson carries a 23-point projected ceiling at $5,600 on DraftKings in our FantasyLabs Models. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Jets +13.5

The Patriots have something to play for in Week 17. With a win New England secures the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.

The Pats should be properly motivated for this matchup, but the line is still inflated. According to The Action Network's NFL simulations, New England is projected to win by 9.1 points on average.

The Jets should be able to score and keep this relatively close. New York has averaged 27.3 points per game in its past four games, while the Patriots defense ranks 19th in Football Outsiders DVOA and is allowing 21.5 PPG, the worst mark for a New England defense since 2002 (21.6 PPG). — John Ewing

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

• Spread: Texans -6.5
• Over/Under: 40
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: After opening as 9-point favorites on Sunday night, the Texans had fallen to -7 by Christmas.

Though there was some buyback to move the line to -7.5 on Wednesday morning, the line moved through the key number of seven to -6.5 by Wednesday afternoon.

Our money percentages show that the Jaguars, who are getting fewer than 40% of bets, are getting just about half the cash at the time of writing (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Did you know? Blake Bortles has made three trips to Houston to face the Texans in his career, and things haven’t gone great. Bortles has a 54.5 passer rating and is averaging just five yards per attempt in H-Town. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Texans have a shot to be the 1-seed, 2-seed and 6-seed. But it's most likely they'll be the AFC's No. 3 after suffering a costly loss in Week 16.

Our simulations give Houston a 53.5% chance to be the 3-seed, which would only require a win vs. the Jaguars.

If the Texans lose, they'd move down to the 6-seed and the winner of Colts-Titans would win the AFC South and take over the 3-seed.

Houston could still lose to the Jags and win the AFC South if the Colts and Titans tie on Sunday Night Football, but that's very unlikely. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Calais Campbell vs. the Texans O-line

It doesn’t matter where Campbell lines up this weekend. There is nobody on the Texans who can contain his pass rush. It is Campbell, not Khalil Mack or J.J Watt, who's actually Pro Football Focus' highest graded edge-rusher this season:

• Campbell 90.9
• Khalil Mack 90.6
• J.J. Watt 90.2
• Trey Flowers 89.6
• Cam Jordan 89.5

He will take on what I feel is the worst offensive line in all of football. And the advanced metrics agree, as the Texans rank 32nd in adjusted sack rate and have allowed a league-high 56 sacks.

The Jags have two of the most talented corners in the league, and both are capable of staying with DeAndre Hopkins.

The Texans really don’t have many other options in the passing game as a result of the group being decimated by injury. Campbell is going to wreak havoc in the backfield on Sunday in Houston. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Jaguars

Bortles will be under center this week, but Leonard Fournette (foot, ankle) appears to be trending toward a week off after being downgraded to a DNP on Thursday.

Kicker Josh Lambo (groin) and ace cornerback A.J. Bouye (toe) are also candidates to land on the inactive list, but the offense should at least welcome back field-stretcher D.J. Chark (quad).

The Texans aren’t overly banged up themselves, as only linebacker Benardrick McKinney (foot), slot receiver Keke Coutee (hamstring), defensive tackle Brandon Dunn (ankle) along with cornerbacks Johnathan Joseph (neck) and Kareem Jackson (knee) appear to be at risk of missing Sunday’s game.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Hopkins is the league's premiere contested-catch artist and possesses enough chemistry with Deshaun Watson to win any matchup. With that said, Jags CB Jalen Ramsey has at least made life difficult during their three-season rivalry.

• 2016 Week 10: 5 receptions-48 yards-0 TDs (13 targets)
• 2016 Week 15: 8-87-0 (17)
• 2017 Week 1: 7-55-1 (16)
• 2017 Week 15: 4-80-1 (13)
• 2018 Week 7: 3-50-1 (8)

The only question is if Ramsey will travel with Hopkins like he has during the majority of their five career matchups.

The Jaguars haven't asked him to lineup as the defense's right cornerback in three straight games, although the Titans, Redskins and Dolphins also don't exactly possess a No. 1 receiver that needs to be shadowed (sorry Corey Davis).

Hopkins costs $8,100 on DraftKings and boasts a strong +2.8 Projected Plus/Minus in our FantasyLabs Models. — Ian Hartitz

Bet to watch: Jaguars +6.5

For a team that came within a few plays of the Super Bowl last season, a Week 17 spoiler role is the Jags' Super Bowl in 2018. I already mentioned how I think  Campbell can disrupt the backfield and I think Jacksonville will be able to keep DeAndre Hopkins quiet, which would essentially shut down Houston's passing attack.

In the first meeting (20-7 Texans win), Watson only threw for 139 yards and six of his 12 completions went to Will Fuller, who is out for the year.

On the other side of the ball, I think Bortles can carry some of the momentum from last week against a vulnerable Texans secondary in what will basically serve as a job audition for him.

As with most Week 17 NFL games between a contender and eliminated team, we are getting value with the lame duck, which can play looser in a game they should want to show up for — not only for job auditions, but to play spoiler and to avenge an earlier season loss to a division rival.

That loss should give Bortles a little extra motivation, too, as it was the game he was benched for Cody Kessler.  — Stuckey

Betting odds: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Spread: Buccaneers -1 
• Over/Under: 51
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The Falcons are getting 58% of the bets and 69% of the cash. We’ve tracked a reverse line move that has helped them move from +2 to as high as -1.5 since opening (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Bettors are expecting Falcons-Bucs to be a shootout. More than 70% of tickets are on the over pushing the over/under from 49.5 to 52.

A word of caution if you are considering betting the over: Since 2003, in the second half of the season, the under has gone 170-125-5 (58%) when the total increases by one or more points in a high-total game (45 or more points) according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Buccaneers through Week 13 were averaging 26.5 points per game, 10th in the NFL. Now, over the past three weeks, Tampa Bay has scored fewer than 21 points in each game.

Matt Ryan in his career has faced 19 teams that have scored fewer than 21 points in three straight games and he is 14-5 against the spread (73.7%), covering the spread by 6.8 PPG, profiting bettors 9.3 units — the most profitable quarterback in the Bet Labs database in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Draft order: Both of these teams are in the running for a top-10 draft pick. Tampa Bay currently has the No. 6 selection, while Atlanta's two consecutive wins have moved it down to No. 10.

A Falcons loss would ensure they get a better pick than the Bucs, as Atlanta has played a weaker schedule. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Falcons defense vs. Jameis Winston

The Buccaneers defensive line (top five adjusted sack rate) has actually been one of the more impressive units on a disappointing team, but this is a pretty simple game to cap (assuming both teams show up for a meaningless clash in Week 17).

These are two dynamic, pass-happy offenses (both rank in the top six in the NFL in average attempts per game and yards per attempt) that will face two horrendous pass defenses (29th and 30th in pass defense DVOA).

The difference will come down to turnovers. Jameis Winston remains one of the most turnover-prone quarterbacks in the NFL, while Matt Ryan values the ball as well as any quarterback in the league.

Career interception rate: Ryan – 2.1% (top 10 all time) | Winston – 3.0%
Career fumble rate: Ryan – 0.36 per game | Winston – 0.69 per game

Winston isn't getting dramatically better in this department if you just look at 2018:

Ryan: 33 TD 6 INT (1.1% INT rate)
Winston: 15 TD 13 INT (2.8% INT rate)

If you include lost fumbles, Winston has turned it over more times than he has thrown for touchdowns. On the contrary, Ryan has three times as many passing touchdowns as he does turnovers.

In a game where both passing offenses should thrive against wretched defenses, the difference will come down to giveaways — and Winston has shown us time and time again he’s much more likely to commit that key turnover (or two) — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Buccaneers

Neither team is expected to rest any healthy starters. The expected absence of DeSean Jackson (Achilles) means Chris Godwin should see plenty of snaps.

Meanwhile, the Bucs defense is less than 100% with defensive linemen Gerald McCoy (shoulder), Jason Pierre-Paul (knee, shoulder) and Carl Nassib (shoulder) all banged up.

The Falcons could be without Tevin Coleman (groin) and Julio Jones (ribs, hip), while the potential absences of left guard Wes Schweitzer would also be troublesome.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: If Jackson (Achilles) doesn’t suit up on Sunday, Godwin will be back in play at $4,300 on DraftKings and $5,100 on FanDuel.

His price dropped a few hundred dollars on both sites after he was priced up for when Jackson was missing time with a thumb injury. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Falcons -1

The Falcons could be without their main running back Coleman (groin), but backup Brian Hill flashed his talent last week (8-115-0), and he was a strong collegiate runner at Wyoming (349-1,860-22 as a junior in 2016).

Since the Bucs fired defensive coordinator Mike Smith in Week 7, they have been highly vulnerable on the ground, allowing 145.3 yards rushing per game. Even with their fourth-string running back, the Falcons should be able to control the ball.

The Bucs have reportedly not ruled out the possibility of giving some snaps to backup quarterback Ryan Griffin so that they can see what they have in him, while the Falcons seem eager to give the first-team offense as much playing time as possible so that wide receiver Julio Jones can win his second receiving title. He currently leads the league with 1,539 yards.

Although the Falcons are 29th in defensive DVOA, they have played most of the season without middle linebacker Deion Jones. With him (he returned in Week 13), they have been a totally different team on defense.

With Jones (five games): 20.4 points allowed per game, 1.8 allowed per drive
Without Jones (10 games): 28.9 points allowed per game, 2.67 allowed per drive

With the defense improved and the offense expected to play as it usually does, the Falcons could roll against a Bucs team looking to evaluate non-starters. — Matthew Freedman

Betting odds: Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints

• Spread: Saints -7
• Over/Under: 42.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Playoff picture: The Saints have absolutely nothing to play for; they're locked into the NFC's No. 1 overall seed. That helps explain why New Orleans is starting Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback instead of Drew Brees. — Scott T. Miller

Betting market: While the Saints will be taking it easy wit their studs, the Panthers are rolling out third-string quarterback Kyle Allen. Hence the 7-point line.

Spread bets have been fairly split in terms of tickets, but Carolina is getting the vast majority of money (83%).

The under is very popular: 73% of bets and 65% of dollars (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant

Did you know? The Saints clinched home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs with a win over the Steelers in Week 16.

The last time New Orleans had home-field advantage in the playoffs was 2009, Drew Brees & Co. won the franchise’s only Super Bowl that season. — John Ewing

Draft order: Carolina's seven consecutive losses have it currently sitting in the 11th overall draft position. The Panthers have a decent chance to move into the top-10 if they lose to the Saints.

The Bills, Falcons and Giants — all ahead of Carolina in the draft right now — are favored to win this weekend. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Quarterback

With Cam Newton shut down with a shoulder injury and Taylor Heinicke landing on the injured reserve with an elbow injury, the Panthers are being forced to turn to undrafted rookie Kyle Allen, who finished the preseason ranked 56th of 68 qualifiers in Pro Football Focus’ quarterback grades.

Even with the Saints starting Bridgewater under center, they still have a massive advantage.

Bridgewater ranked ninth in PFF’s preseason grades and has 848 more regular-season pass attempts to his name than Allen — not to mention a whole season of preparing alongside masterminds Brees and Sean Payton. – Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Saints

The Saints are mostly healthy with the exception of tackles Terron Armstead (shoulder) and Jermon Bushrod (hamstring).

The Panthers very well could curtail Christian McCaffrey’s workload, considering they’re eliminated from the playoffs and will be starting a third-string QB.

The potential absence of offensive linemen Trai Turner (ankle) and Marshall Newhouse (elbow) certainly wouldn’t help matters.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: With so much uncertainty with who will be playing in this game, I'll be avoiding this game entirely for DFS purposes. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Panthers +7

There's obviously a lot of volatility in this one, but there's only one way to go in this game, as the Saints don't have any reason to go out and try and win this game.

So if you must bet it, take the points. — Peter Jennings

Betting odds: Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers

• Spread: Packers -9
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: The market is posting a slew of numbers for this game, ranging anywhere from Packers -7.5 to -9.

Green Bay is getting nearly 70% of bets and cash, and there has been a bit of sharp activity on each side (check out live data here). However, clearly not enough to push this line out of this insignificant range of more than -7 and less than -10. — Mark Gallant

Weather report: Green Bay is going to have some very Green Bay-ish late December weather. Temperatures will be a bit below freezing, but wind speeds should play more of a factor.

If the forecast of 17 mph winds holds up, it would be tied for the windiest NFL game of the year — which was the snowy game in Green Bay when the Cardinals booted Mike McCarthy out of town. — Gallant

Trends to know: Matthew Stafford has played in 11 games in his career where winds were gusting above 10 mph on average, and he is 2-9 against the spread, failing to cover the spread by 4.9 points per game.

In three of those 11 games, Stafford faced the Packers in Lambeau and he is 0-3 straight up and ATS. — Evan Abrams

As Mark noted, it’ll be cold at Lambeau Field with an average temperature of 26 degrees during the game. Many bettors think cold temperatures impact scoring but that’s not true.

Since 2003, in games played in 32 degree or colder temperatures the over has gone 142-121-5 (54%). If the game has a low over/under, like Packers-Lions, the over has performed even better. — John Ewing

Draft order: The Packers' comeback win over the Jets last week proved costly, as they only have a small chance to get a top-10 draft pick now (Green Bay currently has the 14th selection).

Detroit sits at fifth overall entering Week 17, holding the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker over the other four teams bunched at 5-10. A loss would lock the Lions into a top-five pick. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Davante Adams vs. Lions secondary

Judging from last week, Aaron Rodgers obviously still cares about this season. And I’m willing to bet he also cares about getting the ball to his No. 1 WR Davante Adams early and often — especially since Adams is only 134 yards away from setting the single-season Packers receiving record (Jordy Nelson 1519).

Adams has been one of the best receivers in the NFL this season and should end the season with a bang against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. Just take a look at some of these stats:

• 7.6 yards per attempt allowed (28th)
• 32nd overall defense DVOA
• 32nd pass defense DVOA
• 32nd against No. 1 receivers

I expect Adams to break the record on Sunday in one of the most favorable matchups of the slate. And I’m just not sure dome Detroit has enough weapons left to keep up, nor cares to at Lambeau in a meaningless December game in the freezing cold. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Lions

Both teams are banged up, but all healthy starters are expected to suit up. That might not include offensive tackles David Bakhtiari (hip) and Bryan Bulaga (knee) for the Packers, and the likes of Clay Matthews (back), cornerback Jaire Alexander, along with wide receivers Randall Cobb (concussion) and Equanimeous St. Brown (concussion) are also banged up.

The Lions won’t welcome back running back Kerryon Johnson (knee, IR) or slot receiver Bruce Ellington (hamstring, IR) this season, so the status of Kenny Golladay (chest) and LeGarrette Blount (knee) will be worth monitoring.

Defensive tackles Damon Harrison (ankle) and A’Shawn Robinson (knee) are also not functioning at 100%.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: There are a number of reasons for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to get Adams as involved as possible this Sunday, as he’s gunning for the following team records:

• Sterling Sharpe catches (112 in 1993, Adams at 111)
• Jordy Nelson receiving yards (1,519 in 2014, Adams at 1,386)
• The franchise’s first 100-1,500-10 receiving line

Slay deserves plenty of respect as a former first-team All-Pro corner, but Adams caught 9-of-12 targets for 140 yards and a touchdown in their first matchup back in Week 5.

The Packers' No. 1 receiver managed to ball out even with Slay chasing Adams into the slot for portions of the game.

Adams has the highest projected ceiling — and the highest projected ownership rate — on DraftKings among all wide receivers in Sunday's main slate, according to our FantasyLabs Models. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Lions/Packers Under 44.5

The weather is shaping up to make this game fall way under the projected 44.5 point total. Wind speeds are expected to be up above 17 mph.

Since 2003 the under has hit at a 55.5% clip when wind speeds are 10 mph or more. Despite heavy public action on the over (72%) the total has fallen since opening, signaling sharp under action.

We have also tracked two different Reverse Line Moves on the Under 44.5. Historically, unders have been a profitable bet in division games, especially late in the season (57% in December since 2003). — Keith LaBlanc

Betting odds: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

• Spread: Bills -5.5
• Over/Under: 39.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Sharps on Buffalo?! After opening on the key number of -3, the Bills are all the way up to -5.5.

Our betting percentages reveal that 76% of the cash is backing Buffalo at the time of writing after that beautiful backdoor cover vs. Brady & Belichick (see live betting data here).

The over/under has also seen sharp activity, as steam hit the over at 38.5. Though bets are split, the over is seeing 68% of the money and it’s up to 39.5 now after opening at 38. —Mark Gallant

Weather report: The temperature will be hovering right around freezing, with wind speeds of about 12 mph. No precipitation is in the forecast, though, so unfortunately Buffalo will not yield one of those snowstorms like it did for the Colts game in 2017. —Mark Gallant

Draft order: A win would almost certainly knock Buffalo outside of the top 10 in the 2019 draft.

Miami currently holds the 15th pick, and even if the Dolphins lose to the Bills, they'd need losses from Atlanta, Carolina, Denver, Cincinnati and/or Green Bay to move up the board.

It's a longshot they'll work their way into the top 10. — Scott T. Miller

Did you know? This is just the 14th total to be listed at less than 40 points this season. For perspective, from 2003-07 there were 531 games (more than 100 games a season) with over/under of less than 40 points.

This year the over is 8-5 in games with totals of 39.5 fewer points. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Bills pass defense vs. Dolphins passing game

It's best to stay away from this passing game in fantasy considering Ryan Tannehill has throw for fewer than 150 yards in three of his five starts since returning from injury. This is especially true this week, as the Bills boast a top-three defense in both overall and pass DVOA.

Not helping matters is the Dolphins’ mediocre and injury-riddled offensive line, as Tannehill has the week’s third-worst combined pressure rate. None of Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker or Danny Amendola should have to deal with stud No. 1 corner Tre’Davious White on an every-snap basis, but there’s a low floor and even lower ceiling for anyone involved in the Dolphins’ passing "attack." — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bills

Neither team figures to rest any of their starters. The Bills could welcome back Chris Ivory (shoulder), but backup receiver Deonte Thompson (toe) will likely be sidelined.

The Dolphins have a few more issues to worry about, as linebacker Kiko Alonso (knee, hamstring), safety T.J. McDonald (foot), cornerback Xavien Howard (knee), along with defensive linemen Ziggy Hood (hamstring) and Andre Branch (knee) should be considered questionable for Sunday.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Wide receiver Robert Foster makes for an intriguing mid-range play on DraftKings.

Over the past three weeks, he owns 20.5% of Buffalo's target share and 28% of their market share of air yards. And his 20.1 average depth of target gives him the most upside on the Bills’ offense.

In our FantasyLabs Player Models, Fosters’ 18.0 Ceiling Projection leads all receivers in this game. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bills -5.5

This game is one of the most straightforward on the slate, which makes it one of the easiest to handicap in my opinion.

We don’t have to worry about quarterbacks being pulled mid game. We don’t have to worry about scoreboard watching. We don’t have to worry about inflated spreads because of “motivation.”

We can simply focus on the two teams, and I think the Bills are the superior squad despite owning an inferior record. Miami currently ranks 30th in DVOA, while the Bills check in at 25th.

They outgained the Dolphins by a ridiculous margin in their first meeting, winning the yardage battle 415-175, but were ultimately done in by three turnovers.

If Josh Allen can avoid gifting the Dolphins field position in this contest, I like the Bills’ chances of covering the spread. — Matt LaMarca

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs

• Spread: Chiefs -13.5
• Over/Under: 52.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Some square books have the Chiefs as 14-point favorites, but the majority of the market has the Chiefs at -13.5. They’re commanding about 60% of the bets and not much sharp activity has come in on either side.

The over/under has seen some, though: After opening at 54 at most books, it’s down to 52.5, as steam hit the under at 53.5.

The under is also kind of a trendy pick among the public, getting close to 60% of the bets (see live betting data here). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Chiefs lost to the Seahawks in Week 16. Since 2003, good teams like Kansas City (won 70%+ of their games) have gone 64-44 against the spread after a loss in December or later in the season, according to our Bet Labs data.

If they face a bad opponent (won 30% or less of their games), like the Raiders, these teams have gone 13-5 ATS. — John Ewing

Did you know? It might be time to state the obvious: The Chiefs haven’t covered a game since Week 9, when they defeated the Browns 37-21 on the road.

KC isn't the only team that hasn't covered the spread during this span. Did I mention Kansas City started the season 7-0 ATS? — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: If the Chiefs beat Oakland, they'll secure the AFC's No. 1 overall seed. That's not the only way they can land home-field throughout the playoffs, but it is the simplest (and most likely).

The Raiders winning would represent one of the biggest upsets of the season — and it'd be a boon for the Chargers, who can jump from the 5-seed to the 1-seed if they beat the Broncos and the Chiefs lose. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Raiders Pass Defense

Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes leads the league with his 9.5 adjusted yards per attempt and an 81.5 Total QBR.

If he throws for 184 yards and two touchdowns vs. Oakland, he will become only the second quarterback in NFL history with a 5,000-yard, 50-touchdown passing campaign. (The first was Peyton Manning in his record-setting 2013 MVP campaign.)

The Chiefs should be especially motivated to play to their strengths. Given the status of running backs Kareem Hunt (waived) and Spencer Ware (injured, hamstring), the Chiefs are clearly at their best in the passing game, where Mahomes, wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce can challenge opposing defenses.

The Raiders rank 31st overall in pass-defense DVOA overall and 32nd in particular against tight ends. They are extremely vulnerable.

With a big performance, Mahomes can put the finishing touches on an MVP season and give his team home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. He should dominate the feeble Raiders pass defense. — Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Raiders

Both the Chiefs and Raiders (lol) will be fully attempting to win this one. The Chiefs are dealing with injuries to linebacker Dee Ford (knee) and wide receiver Sammy Watkins (foot), but they’re tentatively expected to welcome back both Ware (shoulder) and cornerback Kendall Fuller (wrist).

The Raiders should be all systems go on offense, although tight end Jared Cook (ribs) and running back Jalen Richard (ankle) might not be operating at 100%.

The defense could be without starting cornerback Gareon Conley (concussion) in addition to Daryl Worley (shoulder, IR).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: The Chiefs are in a must-win game against the Raiders on Sunday, which makes Mahomes extremely appealing on a slate filled with some uncertainty.

The Chiefs boast the highest team total on the slate (33) and Mahomes' 0.72 DraftKings and 0.67 FanDuel points per game trails only Lamar Jackson this season.

Given Mahomes' high floor and ceiling, he’ll anchor cash games for me this week. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Under 52.5

One of my favorite bets is the Chiefs home under. In the Andy Reid era (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 17-29-1 over/under record, good for a 22.9% return on investment (per Bet Labs).

The outdoor and raucous Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, especially once the weather is cold, and it’s not just road teams that have played worse in Kansas City this year (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).

• Chiefs Home Games: 52.86 o/u, 52.14 points scored, Chiefs 32, Opponents 20.14
• Chiefs Road Games: 55.19 o/u, 72.87 points scored, Chiefs 38.25, Opponents 34.62

Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs have scored 2.81 fewer points at home and opponents have scored 6.04 fewer points in Kansas City.

Divisional rematches late in the season tend to go under, but the 73 points the Chiefs and Raiders combined to score in Week 13 has inflated this line a bit. — Matthew Freedman

Betting odds: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

• Spread: Vikings -4.5
• Over/Under: 40.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: This line has been all over the place since opening. Initially, it line moved from Vikings -4 to -6.5, as folks might have thought the Bears would rest players.

But when Matt Nagy confirmed Wednesday that they wouldn't, steam hit the Bears, causing them to fall to +3.5.

There has since been a bit of buyback in the other direction, as Minnesota is back up to -4.5, but Chicago remains a very trendy dog, with 64% of the bets at the time of writing (see live data here).

The under has also been very popular (69% of bets, 94% of money), which has caused the total to drop from 41.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The 11-4 Bears are a popular underdog play. But according to our Bet Labs data, teams that have won 70% or more of their games (like Chicago) have gone 66-78-3 against the spread as an underdog in December or later in the season, including 9-15-1 (38%) ATS in Week 17. — John Ewing

Playoff picture: The Vikings and Eagles are battling it out for the NFC's sixth and final playoff spot. Minnesota clinches a berth with a win or a tie over the Bears. If the Vikings lose, they'd need the Eagles to lose or tie.

Our simulations give the Vikings a 63.8% chance of making the postseason.

The Bears might be doing a little scoreboard watching on Sunday, as they'd be locked into the 3-seed if the Rams beat Arizona as a 10-point favorite. So it's always possible Chicago pulls its starters if LA gets up big.

A loss from LA and a win by Chicago would land the Bears a first-round bye as the 2-seed. — Scott T. Miller

Did you know? Since 2003, teams that have won at least 70% of their games (like the Bears) have struggled on the road against the spread over the final two weeks of the regular season, going 39-55-2 (41%) ATS, failing to cover by 3.4 points per game. —  Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Bears' Pass Rush vs. Vikings' Offensive Line

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings offense would obviously prefer if Khalil Mack & Co. don't play a full allotment of snaps, but it might not matter considering the Vikings’ injury-riddled offensive line has allowed a pressure on 38% of Kirk Cousins' dropbacks this season — the eighth-worst mark in the league.

Cousins boasts the week's fifth-worst combined pressure rate among all quarterbacks.

Front-seven stalwarts Mack (No. 2), Akiem Hicks (No. 4), Eddie Goldman (No. 17) and Danny Trevathan (No. 25) all rank among Pro Football Focus' top-25 players at their position, while edge rusher Leonard Floyd (No. 53) and middle linebacker Roquan Smith (No. 43) are former top-10 picks with plenty of talent. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bears

The Bears' injured starters aren't expected to play the whole game. That includes wide receiver Allen Robinson (ribs), defensive tackle Bilal Nichols (knee) and stud safety Eddie Jackson (ankle).

The Vikings are also fairly healthy, as only defensive tackle Linval Joseph (knee), right tackle Mike Remmers (lower back), linebacker Eric Kendricks (hamstring) and stud corner Xavier Rhodes (groin) are in jeopardy of missing this game.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge:The Vikings need to win, so they won't be letting up in this game.

It's still not an appealing spot with an implied team total of 22.5 against the Bears, though running back Dalvin Cook is an intriguing tournament play — especially with the Vikings utilizing him in the passing game.

He boasts a +2.37 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings with an 84% Leverage Rating in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bears +4.5

The Bears can still improve their playoff seeding with a win. And considering they still have something to play for, this line is considerably off where it should be.

The Action Network’s simulations make the spread Chicago -1.8, while our NFL power ratings have Minnesota at -2.7.

While not as drastic as the sims, the power ratings suggest there’s still plenty of value grabbing the Bears through the key numbers of 3 and 4. — PJ Walsh

I bet this line as soon as it opened at Chicago +6. PJ already laid out the math, and assuming the Bears are giving full effort and planning on winning the game, this was my highest edge this week.

There's no way I can make the Vikings better than the Bears on a neutral field. Now we just have to hope the Bears show up. — Travis Reed

I agree with PJ and Travis here — there's still some cushion, even if this line is adjusting for the possibility of the Bears not going all out should the Rams open up a big lead against the 49ers.

This line seems a bit inflated after Chicago struggled against San Francisco last week, but if you've been paying attention, you know the 49ers are better than public perception.

Cousins has struggled in big moments in the past, so I love betting against him versus an elite defense. This spread should be no more than a field goal. — Chris Raybon

Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -5.5
• Over/Under: 41
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Betting activity hasn't been boring in this game. Baltimore fell from -6 to -4.5 on Sunday night, but was back to -6 by Monday afternoon.

It's down to -5.5 as of writing (see live odds here), though the Ravens are still commanding the majority of bets (56%) and dollars (56%). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The 9-6 Ravens have outscored opponents by 100 points this season for the second-best point differential in the AFC. And according to Pythagorean expectations, Baltimore is underperforming despite ranking first in the AFC North.

It's been profitable to bet good teams that have underperformed their point differential, like the Ravens, in December or later in the season.— John Ewing

The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives, but a game that would have been circled as an easy win in the preseason no longer fits that bill.

The Browns are 7-7-1, hasn't historically gone well for John Harbaugh and crew. The Ravens are 4-9-1 (30.8%) against the spread at home against a divisional opponent that's .500 or better, including 2-8-1 (20%) ATS when listed as a favorite in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Ravens can land the 2-, 3-, 4- or 6-seed, depending on how Sunday goes. The 4-seed is by far the most likely possibility, happening in 58.1% of our simulations.

To win the AFC North, the Ravens either need to win or have the Steelers lose/tie.

Cleveland is completely eliminated from playoff contention. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Ravens' Rush Offense, Pass Defense & Special Teams

We already know the handicap when it comes to the Ravens: They're going to run the ball as much as any team. Since Lamar Jackson took over, they've run the ball at a pace the league has yet to see. They've had plenty of success doing so, but it's part smoke and mirrors.

The Ravens have faced some of the NFL's worst rush defenses since Jackson took over under center. He'll face another subpar run D on Sunday as the Browns have allowed 4.5 yards per rush (18th) and rank 21st in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA.

The Ravens are going to run it 40 times and have success doing so.

When they do need to pass, Ronnie Stanley can neutralize Myles Garrett. Jackson will also have an easier time throwing if Denzel Ward (concussion), who didn't practice against Wednesday, isn't in the mix for the Browns.

Meanwhile, the Ravens' elite secondary can really neutralize a subpar Browns receiving corps while taking advantage of a weak group of offensive tackles with one of the best edge rushes in the NFL. It's also worth noting that the Ravens rank first against opposing running backs in the passing game, which is where Baker Mayfield excels.

The only weak area of the Ravens' pass defense has been covering tight ends, but David Njoku isn't winning this game on his own.

While there are significant matchups that favor the Ravens on both offense and defense, the biggest mismatch will come on special teams.

Baltimore has one of the NFL's best units, while the Browns are in the basement with the 32nd ranked unit in DVOA.

The Browns have been particularly bad at punting, where they rank 31st in average net (39.4) and will face a Ravens team that ranks in the top five in punt return average.

Cleveland has also been poor at returning kicks, ranking 28th in average. And I don't even have to mention the massive discrepancy at kicker between the best kicker in NFL history and some guy named Greg.

The Ravens are a great tease piece — I teased them along with the Titans — but I think you have to take the Browns if this line ever gets above +7. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Browns

Neither team will rest starters in a must-win game for the Ravens. The Browns defense could be without Ward (concussion) and linebacker Xavier Woodson-Luster (neck), but they’re otherwise healthy.

The Ravens aren't too bad, either. Only field-stretcher John Brown (hamstring), slot cornerback Tavon Young (groin) and pass-rusher Terrell Suggs (hamstring) appear to be dealing with somewhat significant injuries.

The offense is expected to welcome back left guard Alex Lewis (shoulder).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge:Jackson should be all systems go in this game. Since taking over as the starter, he’s been the most efficient fantasy quarterback in the league, averaging 0.82 DraftKings and 0.80 FanDuel points per game.

He boasts the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus among QB on DraftKings and FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: 6-point teaser — Browns +13; Under 47.5

The Ravens are 5-1 in Jackson's six career starts, but only one of those wins (against the hapless Raiders) came by 13 or more points — and even in that game, they needed a fourth quarter defensive touchdown to pull it off.

Because of its run-heavy, clock-draining scheme under Jackson, Baltimore isn't built to blow teams out. And Cleveland isn't your typical unmotivated team in Week 17.

The Browns have no shot to make the playoffs, but if you think Mayfield & Co. will be checked out, you haven't been paying attention to the post-Hue Jackson era in Cleveland.

In terms of the under, Baltimore's expected slow pace certainly plays a factor, but it's not the whole reason for the handicap.

Neither of these offenses is especially explosive or efficient — and it isn't because they've had a brutal schedule of opposing defenses.

The Browns and Ravens have faced the fifth- and fourth-easiest schedules of opposing defenses, respectively, per DVOA. — Scott T. Miller

Betting odds: Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins

• Spread: Eagles -6.5
• Over/Under: 42
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: This is a must-win game for Philly, which means 80% of bettors believe the Eagles will win by at least a touchdown at the time of writing (see live data here).

Don't include sharp bettors in that 80%, though. In fact, the other 20% has been so sharp that oddsmakers were forced to move the line off the key number of seven.

There have been five reverse line moves on Washington at +7, which explains that movement, doesn't it? — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Philadelphia opened as 7-point favorites in Washington. Since 2003, teams that opened as at least touchdown favorites on the road in December and January have gone 40-61-2 (40%) against the spread.

If the line moves away from those teams — like with the Eagles (-7 to -6.5) — these teams have gone 11-21-1 (34%) ATS. — John Ewing

Playoff picture: This is probably the simplest playoff scenario of the week: To make the postseason, the Eagles need to win and have the Vikings lose to the Bears.

Our simulations give this a 37.5% chance of happening. — Scott T. Miller

Metrics that matter: The Redskins are struggling on offense, scoring fewer than 17 points in four consecutive games.

Teams are only 3-6 ATS in this spot since 2003, and when they score fewer than 17 points in at least four straight games over the final quarter of the regular season, they're 11-24-1 (31.4%) ATS, failing to cover by 4.9 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Eagles' Interior Defensive Line vs. Redskins' Interior Offensive Line

The Redskins' interior O-line has been absolutely demolished by injuries. Guards Brandon Scherff, Shawn Lauvao, Jonathan Cooper and Austin Howard have all been placed on the Injured Reserve since Week 9, leaving Luke Bowanko and Zac Kerin to start.

Bowanko and Kerin both have grades of 51.7 from Pro Football Focus and would rank outside of the top 64 at their position if they had played enough snaps to qualify.

That group — along with center Chase Roullier, who has a 62.1 PFF grade that ranks 17th among centers — will have to contend with Fletcher Cox (PFF’s No. 3 overall interior defender) and second-year revelation Treyvon Hester (24th).

And although veterans Tim Jernigan and Haloti Ngata haven't been in top form this season, they too should have an advantage over Washington’s inexperienced unit whenever they rotate in. — Chris Raybon

Which team is healthier? Eagles

Both teams are injury-riddled messes that don't have the luxury of resting starters.

Nick Foles will once again start for Carson Wentz (back) and might have to work behind a shoddy offensive line that's dealing with injuries to center Jason Kelce (knee), left tackle Jason Peters (quad) and left guard Isaac Seumalo (pec).

Philly's defense isn't at full health, either, with defensive linemen Michael Bennett (foot) and Cox (quad) at less than 100%.

The Redskins have shut down Jordan Reed (foot, IR) and Colt McCoy (leg, IR) for the season.

And while the defense is mostly healthy outside of defensive tackle Matt Ioannidis (hamstring), the offense could be without tight end Vernon Davis (concussion), guards Ty Nsekhe (knee) and Tony Bergstrom (ankle, knee), along with wide receivers Josh Doctson (illness) and Maurice Harris (illness).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: With Foles under center, Zach Ertz is seeing 29% of the Eagles' target share, making him one of the league's most reliable tight ends.

He's $100 more expensive than Travis Kelce on FanDuel, but $500 cheaper on DraftKings. Either way, Ertz is affordable on both sites if you're choosing to pay up for a tight end. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Redskins +6.5

The Redskins nearly played spoiler to the Titans' playoff chances by controlling time of possession with Adrian Peterson and Josh Johnson moving the chains while running the clock down.

I can see them having a similar approach to shorten the game and keep this within one score.

It's no surprise that 80% of the tickets are on the Eagles; there was little chance bettors were going to fade Foles after he went off for 471 and 4 TDs in Week 17.

Take the points here, just be sure to shop around for the best number, as +7 is still available at a number of shops at the time of publication.

This should be a low scoring game, and I really think the Redskins can play spoiler here against an Eagles team that's far from firing on all cylinders. — Sean Koerner

Bet to watch: Under 42

There are a myriad of matchup-specific factors that indicate this could be a low-scoring affair.

• It's a divisional rematch late in the season.
• The matchups boasts the week's slowest combined situation neutral pace.
• Both offenses boast below-average combined explosive play rates in the run and pass game.
• The Eagles' ferocious defensive line could make life very difficult for Johnson and the Redskins' injury-riddled offensive line.
• Neither run game is expected to have overwhelming success based on each offense’s combined adjusted line yards per rush.
• Both teams have mostly done a solid job at taking care of the football, while neither defense has excelled at creating takeaways.

The Redskins haven't scored more than 16 points in a game since November. I’ll take the under and bet against Foles having back-to-back exceptional games.— Hartitz

Betting odds: Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

• Spread: Steelers -14.5
• Over/Under: 45.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The Steelers are in must-win territory, and for portions of the early week, were nearly 17-point favorites. Now they're just measly 14.5-point favorites.

Early sharp money came in on the Bengals plus all those points, which drove the line down to Steelers -14. There has since been a bit of buyback that has pushed the line up a wee bit to -14.5 at the time of writing (see live odds here).

The under has seen quite the pounding. With more than 90% of the dough, as well as a steam move, the incessant onslaught has caused the total to fall from 48 to 45.5. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Since 2003, teams with a winning percentage between .500 and .667 (like the Steelers) have gone 85-103-5 (45%) against the spread when playing at home in Weeks 15-17. — John Ewing

Since 2003, no quarterback has been more profitable ATS in Week 17 than Ben Roethlisberger, who is 10-0 straight-up and 8-2 ATS, covering by 7.3 points per game, according to our Bet Labs data.

When Big Ben is at home against a divisional opponent in Week 17, he's 4-0 SU and ATS, covering by 8.6 points per game. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: After a disastrous Week 16, the Steelers need lots of help to make the playoffs. The Ravens have to lose at home against Cleveland for Pittsburgh to have a prayer.

If that happens, the Steelers get in with a win or a tie against the Bengals.

Our simulations aren't bullish Pittsburgh's odds, giving it just an 18.7% chance to make the postseason. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Steelers WRs vs. Bengals Secondary

Antonio Brown has weathered the storm of his "down" season and emerged as the overall PPR WR2 through 16 weeks. He's dominated December with massive performances against the Chargers (10-154-1) and Saints (14-185-2).

JuJu Smith-Schuster hasn't gone anywhere, either, and is fantasy's PPR WR8 entering Week 17.

Next up is the Bengals' league-worst scoring defense that ranks 29th in Football Outsiders' overall and pass DVOA.

Plus Cincinnati hasn't exactly slowed AB down over the years:

Roethlisberger boasts the week's third-best combined net yards per pass attempt rate. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Steelers

The Steelers are fighting for their playoff lives while the Bengals are too injured to have the luxury of resting starters.

Cincinnati's de facto No. 1 receiver Tyler Boyd (knee), linebacker Jordan Evans (ankle) and Vontaze Burfict (concussion), along with cornerbacks Dre Kirkpatrick (shoulder) and Tony McRae (hamstring), should be considered very questionable.

The Steelers are tentatively expected to welcome back James Conner (ankle), while Brown (knee) is also likely to suit up. The outlook is less optimistic for safety Sean Davis (quad) and linebacker Vince Williams (toe).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Hartitz

DFS edge: The Steelers' 30-point implied team total trails only the Chiefs in Week 17.

Roethlisberger and Brown rank near as one of the best stacks against an abysmal Bengals defense that ranks 28th in pass DVOA.

Even though they’re expensive, they boast the third-highest combined Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bengals +14.5

This is an incredible number when not viewed through the prism of playoff scenarios — it's 14.5 in a division game featuring a favorite that has been largely underwhelming with results, yet still heavily bet in most games.

The fact that Pittsburgh needs to win this game to have any shot of making the playoffs might sound sexy, but it isn't going to make a tackle or defend a pass or swim-move an offensive lineman.

In other words, that fact shouldn't impact the market like it seems to be.

When you bet motivation, you’re really flipping a coin.

The on-field matchups are in the Steelers' favor, just not to this degree. I like the Bengals at more than two touchdowns. — Ken Barkley

Betting odds: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

• Spread: Rams -10
• Over/Under: 48.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: While 63% of bets are laying the points with the Rams, 52% of dollars wagered on the spread have taken the 49ers, kicking the line down from the opener of 10.5 to 10.

Money is also flowing on the under, pushing the total from 50.5 to 48.5 (see live data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Division games tend to be low-scoring due to increased familiarity with opponents.

It has been profitable to bet the under in division matchups with high totals (44.5 or more points) that take place later in the season (Week 11-17).

Rams-49ers is a match for this Bet Labs system. — John Ewing

The Rams are coming off an impressive performance on the road against the Cardinals, shutting down Arizona, and covering the lofty 14.5-point spread.

LA is one of three teams this season averaging at least 30 points per game, with all three headed to the playoffs (Saints and Chiefs).

The Rams are the only one of those three teams to cover the spread last week. Since 2003, teams that average at least 30 PPG in December or later, and covered the spread in their previous game, are 29-48-2 ATS (37.7%) the following week, losing bettors 20.1 units. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Rams cannot improve upon their current No. 2 seed in the NFC, but a loss and a Chicago win at Minnesota would cost LA a first-round bye and move it down to the 3-seed.

The Rams have a 90% chance chance to retain the 2-seed in Week 17, according to our simulations. –– Scott T. Miller

Draft order: The 49ers look like they will either land the No. 2 or 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft, assuming they lose to the Rams.

If San Fran beats LA and both the Jets and Raiders lose as double-digit favorites, could potentially move down to the fifth pick. –– Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Rams pass rush vs. QB Nick Mullens

The 49ers’ offensive line, which ranks 22nd in adjusted sack rate will have its hands full against the Rams’ absurd pass rush.

Overall, the Rams lead the league with a 38.14% pressure rate, and Mullens has struggled when under pressure this season compiling a woeful 50% completion rate, 4.8 yards per attempt and passer rating of just 54.3, per Sports Info Solutions. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Rams

Neither team will be resting its starters in this one. However, Todd Gurley (knee) is still considered day-to-day and failed to practice on either Wednesday or Thursday.

The Rams are otherwise healthy with the only exceptions being safety Lamarcus Joyner (ankle) and backup running back Justin Davis (shoulder).

The 49ers have already ruled out Matt Breida (knee) and Dante Pettis (knee), while Marquise Goodwin (calf) is also banged up.

The defense could be without cornerback K’Waun Williams (knee) along with linebackers Malcolm Smith (Achilles) and Mark Nzeocha (groin) in addition to safety Jaquiski Tartt (shoulder).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: George Kittle is seeing 30.5% of the 49ers’ target share over the past six weeks, and he confirmed he’s gunning for the tight end receiving record of 1,327 yards.

Kittle has 1,228 yards and needs just 100 yards to break it. Kittle is the only tight end in our FantasyLabs Player Models who has comparable projections to Zach Ertz and Travis Kelce, and he’s priced cheaper than all of them on both DraftKings and FanDuel. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: 49ers +10

The Rams want to win this game, but I don’t care. Historical trends say the 49ers are the right way to go so that's where I'm putting my money.

I have two systems in Bet Labs that both include the final three weeks of the season. One is called Pythagorean under-performers and the other is called fade Pythagorean over-performers. The Niners fit both.

Basically, based on point differentials, the 49ers should have a better record than they do and the Rams should have a worse record than they do.

The under-performers system has hit at a 59% rate against the spread since 2005, while the over performers fade system has hit at a 64.4% rate. Good enough for me. — Mark Gallant

Betting odds: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

• Spread: Seahawks -13
• Over/under: 38.5
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: FOX

Betting market: Ticket percentages are a bit misleading in this matchup. Fifty-one percent of bets are on Seattle, suggesting that overall betting action is balanced. However, 81% of dollars wagered are on Arizona at the time of writing, revealing that bettors expect the Cards to keep this game within two touchdowns (see live data here). — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Seattle (9-4-2 against the spread) has been one of the most profitable teams this season covering on average by 5.5 points per game. While bettors have made money wagering on the Seahawks, this could be a good opportunity to fade them.

Since 2003, teams that have covered the spread by five or more points per game have gone 304-380-21 (44%) ATS in Week 5 or later in the season according to our Bet Labs data. — John Ewing

The Cardinals are about to make gambling history. Last week against the Rams, Arizona closed as a 14.5-point underdog against Los Angeles. Currently, the Cardinals are 13.5-point underdogs against the Seahawks.

Since 2003, only four other teams have been more than a 10-point underdog to divisional opponents in consecutive weeks.

Those teams went 4-0 against the spread:

2014: Raiders (+10.5) at Chargers (L, 13-6)
2010: Lions (+14.5) at Packers (L, 28-26)
2009: Buccaneers (+12) at Falcons (L, 20-17)
2005: Texans (+17.5) at Colts (L, 31-17) — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot with their win over Kansas City in Week 16.

Our simulations give Seattle a 95.6% chance to get the 5-seed. To move down to the 6-seed, the Seahawks would need to lose to Arizona and have Minnesota beat Chicago.

In other words, Seattle will be motivated to win on Sunday, but has little incentive to do much else. — Scott T. Miller

Draft order: According to our simulations, the Cardinals have a 90.5% get the No. 1 overall pick in the 2019 draft.

Beating the Seahawks is the only thing that could screw that up. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Seahawks rushing attack vs. Cardinals run defense

The Seahawks boast the fourth-best rushing offense in terms of Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, while the Cardinals rank 27th in rush defense DVOA.

Given that the Seahawks are 13.5-point home favorites, it’s likely they continue their usual routine of just running at their opponents.

As a team, the Seahawks are averaging 4.8 yards per rush and a league-high 158.5 yards per game on the ground.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals rush defense has allowed 4.8 yards per attempt and a league-high 153.1 rushing yards per game.

The 476 rushing attempts they’ve faced also leads the league, likely because opposing offenses are always in favorable game scripts against them. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Seahawks could decide not to overload Chris Carson with 20-plus touches, but they are tentatively expected to trot out most of their usual starters.

This will be easier than normal to accomplish thanks to the expected return of first-round pick Rashaad Penny (ankle).

Wide receiver Doug Baldwin (shoulder), along with defenders K.J. Wright (knee), Tedric Thompson (chest, ankle) and Jarran Reed (oblique) appear to be the only starters at risk of missing time due to injury.

Meanwhile, the Cardinals’ only question marks surround tight end Ricky Seals-Jones (shoulder,) along with defensive ends Markus Golden (ankle) and Benson Mayowa (back, neck).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Given that the Seahawks are locked into the No. 5 or No. 6 seed, it’s possible they could rest some of their starters at some point throughout the game.

I’d rather just avoid this game for DFS purposes unless we get clarity on their offense might do.

Seattle running game would be extremely appealing as 13.5-point home favorites — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Cardinals +13

As John mentioned earlier, late in the season, it pays to fade teams that have performed well against the spread, and to back teams that haven’t fared so well. This game offers the opportunity to do both.

The Seahawks fit into the category of teams holding an average cover margin of at least five points in Week 10 or beyond. Fading such teams has returned a 210-160-13 (56.8%) ATS record since 2005.

Arizona, on the other hand, is failing to cover by more than five points per game. Backing such teams in Week 10 or later has gone 200-177-7 (53.1%) ATS since 2005.

But the real money maker comes when teams from each respective category meet. Taking the strugglers against the team on a roll, based on the above descriptions, has left bettors with a 43-12-2 (78.2%) ATS record. — Danny Donahue

Betting odds: Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos

• Spread: Chargers -6.5
• Over/Under: 42
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The Chargers opened as 4-point favorites and have attracted steady money throughout the week.

Behind 70% of tickets and 73% of dollars wagered on the spread as of writing (see live data here), Los Angeles has moved to a 6.5-point favorite against Denver. — PJ Walsh

Trends to know: It's not been profitable to follow line movement in Week 17. Teams that have seen the line move at least one point in their direction, like with the Chargers, have gone 57-68-4 against the spread since 2003.— John Ewing

Playoff picture: The Chargers need to win to have a chance at jumping from the 5-seed to the 1-seed in the AFC. And even if they win, they'd need either a Chiefs loss or tie. — Scott T. Miller

Draft order: Denver's three consecutive losses have helped catapult the Broncos up the draft board. They now hold the No. 12 pick, and will be cheering for Jacksonville, Atlanta and Carolina to win. — Scott T. Miller

Did you know? Since 2003, teams that have won at least 70% of their games (like the Chargers) have struggled on the road ATS over the final two weeks of the regular season, going 39-55-2 (41.%) ATS — including 11-19 (36.7%) over the past five years — failing to cover by 3.4 points per game. —  Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Chargers WR Keenan Allen vs. Broncos Secondary

The Chargers should play all their guys considering they need a win to secure to the No. 1 spot in the AFC. The catch, as mentioned earlier, is that the Chargers would also need the Chiefs to lose.

The Broncos are much thinner in the secondary with shutdown slot corner Chris Harris Jr. (leg) on Injured Reserve. Meanwhile, Allen (hip) is practicing in full, and the slot is where he's run 54.8% of his routes and has seen 26.9% of his targets this season.

It wouldn't be a surprise to see Allen put up a solid game as he leads the team with 27% of its target share — if the Chargers play their starters for the entire game, of course. — Justin Bailey

Which team is healthier? Chargers

Both teams are expected to compete for the duration of this AFC West battle. The Chargers are nearing full health and expect to welcome backup running back Austin Ekeler (neck). Left tackle Russell Okung (ankle) is their only real question mark.

The Broncos have already ruled out Phillip Lindsay (wrist), while tight end Matt LaCosse (ankle) and wide receiver Andre Holmes (ankle) aren't guaranteed to suit up.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: With Lindsay out, Royce Freeman will step into the starting role.

Freeman is only $3,500 on DraftKings and $4,500 on FanDuel with the highest Projected Plus/Minus among running backs on both sites, per our FantasyLabs Models.

The only concern is that the Broncos are 6.5-point underdogs and Freeman has only 10 targets this season. — Bailey

Bet to watch: Over 42

This will require you to hold your nose a bit, but I think it's the right handicap for a few reasons.

1) When these teams played back in mid-November, the total closed at 47, which proved to be almost exactly the right number (45 total points were scored).

Recent trends by both teams — the under is 5-0 in Denver's past five games while Los Angeles is coming off a 10-point outing — seem to be suppressing this line a tad from where it should be (mid-40s).

2) After Harris went down with a season-ending leg injury, this Broncos defense has allowed 27 points to the Raiders and 20 points to the 49ers, two of the worst offenses in the NFL.

Just think about what a motivated Chargers team can do with some key matchups on their side.

3) About those matchups … as Ian Hartitz wisely pointed out in his must-read Matchup Manifesto, LA's offense has a huge advantage in explosive plays, particularly in the passing game.

According to Sharp Football, the Chargers have the third-most explosive passing offense, while the Broncos' pass D ranks 28th in the same category.

Denver's offense also looks to have a decided advantage in explosive plays: Its rushing offense ranks fourth, per Sharp Football, while LA's defense falls 29th.

4) Weather doesn't look to be a problem at all — mid-40s with 4 mph winds — which should help LA's passing game. And if referee trends are your thing, Sunday's head official is John Parry, who has seen the over go 91-74 in games he's officiated.

This won't be a big play for me at all — if the Chiefs get up big early vs. the Raiders, I could see the Chargers pulling their starters at half — but it's worth a bet with a total that should be closer to the mid-40s.— Scott T. Miller

Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Colts -3
• Over/Under: 43
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV channel: NBC

Betting market: Everyone is on the Colts, which makes some sense considering the Titans haven't even confirmed that Marcus Mariota can play.

The line didn’t open until Wednesday with the Colts at -2.5, but that has since moved to -3 with Indy getting 77% of bets and 81% of dollars at the time of writing (see live data here). — Mark Gallant

Playoff picture: The headline gave it away, but this is effectively a winner-take-all game.

There is only one scenario in which neither the Colts nor the Titans makes it to the postseason, and that would require the two teams to tie and the Steelers to win.

How unlikely is that? It popped up zero times in the 10,000 simulations we ran of Week 17. — Scott T. Miller

Trends to know: Since 2003, teams receiving the majority spread ticket count in Week 17's prime-time game (like the Colts) are 11-5-1 (68.8%) against the spread. — Evan Abrams

Andrew Luck has dominated the AFC South, going 19-8-3 ATS in division games, including 15-5-2 ATS when favored, per our Bet Labs data.

As a road favorite, Luck is 7-2 ATS in division games, covering by an average of 6.9 points per game. — John Ewing

Biggest mismatch: Colts WR T.Y. Hilton vs. Titans CBs

Over the past half decade, Hilton has averaged 89.9 yards receiving per game with Luck. Hilton has also arguably never been better than this season, as he's posted career-high marks in catch rate (64.9%), receptions (5.7) and yards per game (93.0).

The Colts No. 1 receiver has been especially strong since their Week 9 bye. Indy has gone 6-1 since with Hilton playing as a top five receiver, averaging 6.9 receptions and 122.3 yards per game and a 71.6% catch rate.

Hilton is in peak form.

The Titans' pass defense, though, is not at its best right now. Although Tennessee ranks fourth with a 89.8 Pro Football Focus coverage grade, the defense is arguably weakest at the cornerback position.

Slot cornerback Logan Ryan (leg) is out and backup LeShaun Sims has allowed a catch rate of 73.3%. Hilton has run 26.8% of his routes from the slot this season, where he leads the Colts with 2.81 yards per route run (PFF).

Hilton will match-up with Malcolm Butler and Adoree' Jackson on the outside. Among all cornerbacks, Butler has allowed the second-most receiving touchdowns (7) and Jackson has allowed the most receptions (63).

The Colts will likely look to get the ball to their primary playmaker in a must-win game, and Hilton has the ability to exploit this matchup.— Matthew Freedman

Which team is healthier? Titans

This winner-gets-in matchup should feature a Game 7-esque atmosphere in Tennessee.

The Titans could be without linebacker Brian Orakpo (elbow) while receivers Tajae Sharpe (ankle) and Corey Davis (hamstring) might not be at 100%. Marcus Mariota (stinger) is shaping up as a true game-time decision, but he was at least able to throw in practice on Thursday.

The Colts have an abundance of injury issues. Starting offensive linemen Ryan Kelly (neck) and Mark Glowinski (ankle) join tight end Eric Ebron (concussion) and backup receivers Dontrelle Inman (shoulder) and Zach Pascal (knee) as question marks ahead of Sunday.

The good news for Indy is that Hilton (ankle) already said he'll play.

The bad news? The defense is also dealing with injuries to safeties Malik Hooker (hip) and Clayton Geathers (knee), linebackers Matthew Adams (groin) and Anthony Walker (shoulder), along with as defensive end Jabaal Sheard (teeth).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: While this game isn't on the main slate, it’ll be available for DraftKings’ and FanDuel’s single-game slates.

Luck and Hilton will be very high owned in those formats, but it would be difficult not to have some exposure to them.

Luck has averaged an absurd 10.47 adjusted yards per attempt when targeting Hilton this season, who has dominated the Titans with Luck at quarterback. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Titans +3

This is the most meaningful Week 17 game.

The teams have identical 9-6 records, and even though the Titans have home-field advantage, the lopsided public betting pushed the line from Colts -2.5 to -3. Once the key number (plus the hook) was available, sharps hammered Titans.

Using our Sports Insights' Bet Signals, we've tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on Tennessee at +3 and/or +3.5.

The Titans are divisional dogs with a low total, which has a profitable spot since 2003. They’re also in prime fade-the-public territory. They’re getting only 23% of bets in what will be the most heavily bet game of the day, giving them massive contrarian value if those percentages hold as more wagers flow in.

Teams getting fewer than 30% of bets are 62% ATS this season.

Be sure to shop around for the best number here, as there are a few +3.5s out there at the time of publication. — Josh Appelbaum

Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.