Through two weeks of the 2018 NFL season, your passing touchdown leaders are:
- Patrick Mahomes: 10
- Ryan Fitzpatrick: 8
- A bunch of guys: 6
The odds of the leaderboard looking like this after two weeks would have been about 1000-1 before the season began. That's all in the past, though. To make money on sports, you have to look to the future. A little Grays Sports Almanac action if you catch my drift.
>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 3 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 11 a.m. ET on Friday.
Nobody would have expected those two guys slinging 18 combined touchdown passes through the first two weeks, but now you can bet on how many they'll throw in Week 3.
Will Ryan Fitzpatrick and Patrick Mahomes throw four or more touchdown passes in Week 3?
- Neither: -200
- Mahomes only: +275
- Fitzpatrick only: +400
- Both: +1400
I've been told that the neither option opened at -150, but that is still the play despite the line movement. I've gotten a little help from The Action Network's Sean Koerner to put some numbers behind the prop.
According to Koerner's projections, there is an 81.7% chance Mahomes throws for three or fewer TDs, and an 88.5% chance Fitzpatrick goes for three or fewer. Multiply those two percentages together and you get 72.3% — which is the probability that neither of them throws for four TDs.
Implied odds on a -200 wager are 66.66%, which gives us an edge. Even though it's not as much of a slam dunk as it was at the -150 opener, there is still some great value on "Neither."
The value would essentially be gone if the line moves to -250, which is a 71.4% probability.
Time for the Ryan FitzPatrick Mahomes era to end!
