The first full week of the 2019 NFL preseason kicks off Thursday with an 11-game slate. These exhibition games provide bettors an opportunity to build their bankroll before the regular season begins.
We’ve shared seven betting tips for turning a profit on these glorified scrimmages, but there is one more trend bettors need to know.
In preseason games, playoff teams from the previous season have been more profitable than squads that didn’t play past Week 17.
Since 2004, gamblers betting on playoff teams have turned a profit, while a $100 bettor wagering on non-playoff teams has lost $5,299.
There are a few reasons playoff teams have an advantage. For starters, they likely have more talent since they won enough games to reach the postseason the prior year. Playoff teams also have more continuity (players/coaches) from season to season. Many non-playoff teams must use the preseason to learn a new playbook and adjust to different coaching schemes.
Let's take it further, though: When playoff teams match up against non-playoff participants, they have been even more profitable in the preseason. There are eight games on Thursday featuring a playoff team vs. a non-playoff team:
- Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Buffalo Bills (7 p.m. ET)
- Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans (7:30 p.m. ET)
- New England Patriots (-1) at Detroit Lions (7:30 p.m. ET)
- Chicago Bears (-3) vs. Carolina Panthers (8 p.m. ET)
- Houston Texans (+2.5) at Green Bay Packers (8 p.m. ET)
- Seattle Seahawks (+3) vs. Denver Broncos (10 p.m. ET)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (10 p.m. ET, NFL)
Green Dot City
Eight preseason games is a lot to bet. We can narrow our options down by following one of our Bet Labs preseason Pro Systems. The optimal spot to bet these matches is when the line moves in the direction of the playoff team.
Line movement in the preseason is often driven by sharp action, and it is always advantageous to be on the same sides as the pros.
Since 2004, bettors following this system have gone 120-87-11 (58.0%) against-the-spread (ATS), returning a profit of $2,706 for a $100 bettor. This betting strategy has a large sample and has been profitable in 11 of the past 15 preseasons, which gives us confidence placing bets based on game matches.
Currently two games are a match for our Pro System, but be sure to check back throughout the day as the lines shift.
- Indianapolis Colts (-2) at Buffalo Bills (7 p.m. ET)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+2) at Arizona Cardinals (10 p.m. ET, NFL)
