NFL Conference Championship Game Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior Trends

NFL Conference Championship Game Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior Trends article feature image

NFL Conference Championship Game Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior Trends

The Action Network has combed through mounds of referee data to give you the most pertinent trends that bettors should know heading into this weekend's NFL Championship Games. The following refs will head up Sunday's two games:

  • Chiefs vs. Ravens: Shawn Smith
  • Lions vs. 49ers: Clete Blakeman

Here are the most relevant betting trends associated with these referees in these specific matchups, thanks to our data guru Evan Abrams.



Chiefs vs. Ravens

Chiefs Logo
Sunday, Jan 28
3 pm ET
CBS/Paramount+
Ravens Logo
Chiefs Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+3.5
-112
44.5
-110o / -110u
+156
Ravens Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-3.5
-108
44.5
-110o / -110u
-186
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Ravens are 6-1 on the moneyline but 3-4 ATS with Shawn Smith as the head referee. That includes a 2-0 record straight up and an 0-2 ATS record at home.

That's a general trend with Smith as referee. Underdogs seem to lose constantly — but tend to cover. Dogs are 28-65-1 all-time. A $100 per game bettor would have lost $1,906, which is the sixth-worst mark of all refs.

However, underdogs are 49-40-5 ATS (55%), including a 8-5-2 mark this season and 34-27-3 (56%) the last four seasons.

In addition, road teams are 52-36-5 (59%) ATS with Smith as ref. He's the 6th-best ref for road teams. Teams away from home went 9-3-2 ATS with Smith this season.

Chiefs vs. Ravens Referee: Shawn Smith

Lions vs. 49ers

Lions Logo
Sunday, Jan 28
6 pm ET
FOX
49ers Logo
Lions Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+7
-110
44.5
-110o / -110u
+265
49ers Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-7
-110
50.5
-110o / -110u
-330
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Lions vs. 49ers referee: Clete Blakeman

The Lions have covered three straight games with Blakeman dating back to 2021 — Dan Campbell is 3-0 ATS. Goff is 6-2-1 ATS — dating back to his time with the Rams — with Blakeman as ref.

But on the flip side, the 49ers have won four straight and two straight ATS with Blakeman at the helm. That's a stark contrast to the 2010s, when the 49ers were 0-9 ATS with Blakeman as ref.

Blakeman led games have leaned towards underdogs, going 119-100-5 (54%) ATS. A blind, $100 per game bettor would be up $1,327 over that timespan, including a 30-19 (61%) ATS mark the last three seasons.

Underdogs are also 9-3 ATS in playoff games with Blakeman.

Meanwhile, the under is 8-4 in Blakeman's 12 playoff games. His games have gone 10-5 on the under and 28-21 the last three seasons.

Sports betting is coming to the Tar Heel State in March! Stay up to date on the latest promotions and news about here. 

About the Author
Avery Yang is an editor at the Action Network who focuses on breaking news across the sports world and betting algorithms that try to predict eventual outcomes. He is also Darren Rovell's editor. Avery is a recent graduate from Northwestern University's Medill School of Journalism. He has written for the Washington Post, the Associated Press, Sports Illustrated, (the old) Deadspin, MLB.com and others.

Follow Avery Yang @avery_yang on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.