NFL Christmas + Week 17 Saturday Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Preview

NFL Christmas + Week 17 Saturday Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Preview article feature image

Here comes one of the weirdest stretches for the NFL in recent memory. Two matchups of teams playing three games in 11 days, with very little off days coming up for the league — time to get into the thick of it with just two weeks left in the regular season.

Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 17 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Dec. 24, at 1 p.m. ET.


Top NFL Things To Know

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Exhausted

Three Games in 11 Days

In the Wild Card era, we haven't seen matchups of two teams playing three games in 11 days. Now we have two this week with Chiefs/Steelers and Ravens/Texans.

Overall, these three games in eleven days teams are 7-10 SU and 6-11 ATS, with underdogs actually 0-6 SU/ATS. Also, of the five teams to have a three-game in an eleven-day stretch and make the playoffs that year, none made the Conference Championship, and three lost their first playoff game.


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Strength vs. Strength

Mahomes Faces Tomlin

In Patrick Mahomes’ career, he is 26-9-1 ATS as either an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less. That is the 2nd-best mark from a profit perspective since 2003, behind only Teddy Bridgewater. On the other hand, you have Mike Tomlin as a home dog, which has been a cover staple in his career. He is 21-6-3 ATS as a home dog, the best mark of 155 coaches. He’s 2-0 ATS this year and 14-3-1 ATS since 2018.


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Chalk Show

Favorites Prevail

Since Week 5, favorites are 131-44 straight up (75%). This would be the 2nd-best winning percentage on the moneyline for any season Week 5 on since 1990 and the highest since 2005. From an ATS perspective, favorites are hitting at about a 56% rate since Week 5, also the highest since 2005.


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Bo Knows

Nix Can Join Betting History

In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 11-4 ATS this year, including 6-2 ATS on the road. Nix is the most profitable QB ATS in the NFL this season entering Week 17.

In fact, Nix is only the 4th rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck and 2008 Joe Flacco.


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Run Around Kyler

Dog Domination

Kyler Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 31-17-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL, he's been the most profitable QB ATS as an underdog.


Every NFL Game For Christmas, TNF & Saturday of Week 17

Click the green beaker for "Bet Labs Systems" or on one of the matchups below to navigate to a specific game.


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Wednesday, Dec. 25
1:00pm ET on Netflix
Patrick Mahomes vs. Russell Wilson
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NFL Christmas Day Highlights

➤NFL on Christmas Day started back in 1971 with two games, took a hiatus until 1989 and has run mildly consistent, missing a few years in between since ‘89. Favorites are 18-12 SU but just 11-18-1 ATS in those games on the holiday. Since 2021, favorites are just 3-5 SU, including 0-8 ATS playing Christmas Day.

Mahomes’ Dominance Against Steelers

➤Patrick Mahomes has faced the Steelers three times in his career and he is 3-0 SU and ATS, covering the number by 11.5 PPG. A pretty unreal feat. Mahomes has scored 120 pts in three games vs. Pittsburgh. Since 2003, no QB is 4-0 ATS vs. Steelers – which Mahomes could achieve with a win and cover.

In those 3 games, Mahomes has 14 TDs, 1 INT, and a 75%+ completion pct in all three games.

Mahomes Shines in Primetime Games

➤Mahomes has performed well in “primetime” games, like he had last week vs. Texans. Here is his record in each spot. Overall, he is 47-14 SU and 35-25-1 ATS in 61 total games.

Playoffs: 15-3 SU, 13-5 ATS
TNF: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
SNF: 13-6 SU, 8-11 ATS
MNF: 7-2 SU, 4-4-1 ATS
Early Monday: 1-1 SU/ATS
Germany: 1-0 SU/ATS
Friday: 1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS
Saturday: 3-0 SU/ATS

Mahomes Excels as Small Favorite or Underdog

➤In Mahomes’ career, he is 26-9-1 ATS as either an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less. That is the 2nd-best mark from a profit POV since 2003, behind only Teddy Bridgewater.

Tomlin’s Record as a Home Underdog

➤On the other hand, you have Tomlin as a home dog, which has been a cover staple in his career. He is 21-6-3 ATS as a home dog, best mark of 155 coaches. He’s 2-0 ATS this year and 14-3-1 ATS since 2018.

Steelers’ Record Following Ravens Matchups

➤The Steelers faced the Ravens back in Week 11 and then had the Browns the next week. Pittsburgh lost to Cleveland in that game. Tomlin is just 16-19-1 ATS the game after facing Baltimore. When Pittsburgh has had to face a team on short rest after the Ravens, they are 4-5 SU, 3-5-1 ATS, losing three in a row SU/ATS since 2020.

Consecutive Short-Rest Matchups

➤Steelers and Chiefs and Ravens and Texans will play consecutive games on short rest after playing Sunday-Saturday-Wednesday.

This will be just the 2nd and 3rd matchups of teams facing each other both on consecutive weeks of short rest in the Wild Card era, the Cowboys and Titans did so back in 2022. Dallas, a 13.5-pt favorite, won 27-13, going barely under the 40.5 close.

Chiefs’ Second Half ATS Struggles

➤The Chiefs have lost six consecutive games against the second half spread, with their last cover coming about six weeks ago. Their last 5-game 2H ATS losing stretch came back in 2020 (lost 7 straight 2H ATS).

Mahomes is 1-8 2H ATS in his last 9 starts, before this stretch, he was 13-1 2H ATS in his previous 14 starts.

Tomlin Bounces Back From Double-Digit Losses

➤Talk about a “rah-rah” spot for Mike Tomlin. Two straight losses SU and ATS, both by double-digits. After consecutive losses SU and ATS, Tomlin is only 14-13 ATS, but 7-4 ATS as an underdog.

Since 2020, Tomlin has coached a game off b2b double-digit losses twice and he is 2-0 SU/ATS, with both games being played at home.

Steelers’ First-Half Performance Issues

➤At last the Steelers offense scored a TD on their 2nd possession last week. They have had issues starting fast this season and beyond. Since 2021, Pittsburgh is 25-43 1H ATS, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. They are under .500 1H ATS in six straight seasons.

Steelers Thrive in One-Score Games

➤Nobody plays one-score games like the Steelers. This season, they are 6-3 SU/ATS in those games.

Last year, the Steelers were 9-2 SU in one-score games (within eight points), the best mark in the NFL – which is nothing new for Pittsburgh. They’ve been over .500 SU in one-score games for eight straight years and .500 SU or better in 10 consecutive seasons.

Since 2020, they are 37-14 SU in one-score games, 2nd-best mark in the NFL, behind just the Chiefs. They are 35-16-1 ATS in those games, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, too.

Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.

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Wednesday, Dec. 25
4:30pm ET on Netflix
Lamar Jackson vs. C.J. Stroud
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Lamar Jackson’s Perfect Record Against Texans

Lamar Jackson has faced the Texans four times in his career, he is 4-0 SU and 4-0 ATS, covering the spread by 15 PPG with all four of his wins coming by 14 pts or more.

Lamar’s First-Half Road Success

➤Away from home, Lamar is 32-15-1 against the first half spread in his career, but just 3-5 1H ATS this season.

Road Versus Home ATS Performance

➤In his career, Lamar has been much better ATS on the road vs. home.
He is 31-17 ATS on the road or neutral site, compared to 22-27-1 ATS at home.

Post-Steelers Challenges For Ravens

➤In the Ravens last eight games after beating the Steelers they are 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS, failing to cover the spread in four straight games in this spot.

Texans Struggle on Short Rest

➤Playing on short rest hasn’t been a good thing for the Texans this year. They are 0-3 SU/ATS, losing by just one-score in all three games against the Chiefs, Titans and Jets.

Stroud’s Success as Underdog

➤Stroud has made 32 career starts in the NFL. He’s 8-5 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career.
Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 9-5 ATS, including 6-2 ATS when listed as an underdog.

Ravens Line Movement And History

➤This line opened around -3 for Baltimore on Saturday after having a lookahead line near -1.5 and -2 prior to the Week 16 action. Now, with the line around -5 for the Ravens, we’ve seen some action for Baltimore after the Tank Dell injury.

Stroud has never closed above +4.5 at home with the Texans, doing so in a 26-23 loss to the Lions this year. Stroud never closed as a home dog in college, which makes this his biggest home dog of his college and pro careers.

Lamar has seen the line move 3+ pts in his direction (-3 to -6 as ex) 14 times, he is only 7-7 ATS in those games, but 12-2 SU.

Texans’ First-Half ATS Excellence

➤Texans are now 12-3 against the first half spread this year after losing 17-10 last week vs. Kansas City. Houston is still chasing the 2023 Ravens (14-3) for the best 1H ATS mark in the last 20 years.

As head coach of the Texans, DeMeco Ryans is 24-10 1H ATS, including 24-8 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB. Stroud’s 1H ATS mark is the 4th-best among 263 QBs over the last 20 years behind just Jared Goff, Lamar Jackson and Joe Flacco.

Houston is also 4-11 against the second half spread, the 2nd-worst mark of any team in the NFL, just ahead of the 49ers.

Stroud and the Under

➤In Stroud’s career, the under is 20-11-1, the 3rd-best mark for any QB since he was drafted.
The total in this contest is around 47 this week. With a total of 45+, the under is 11-3 when C.J. Stroud starts. Totals under 45 are just 9-8-1 to the under.

Ravens’ Post-Steelers Favorite Dominance

➤Not a huge issue. In franchise history, the Ravens are 26-7 SU when listed as a favorite the week after facing the Steelers.


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Thursday, Dec. 26
8:15pm ET on Prime Video
Geno Smith vs. Caleb Williams
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Bears Struggle in Night Games with Caleb Williams

Bears have played two night games with Caleb Williams this season, they are 0-2 SU, scoring only 25 total pts in both games – neither game was on short rest.

Geno Smith’s Night Game Woes

Geno Smith has struggled mightily in night games. He is 3-12 SU, but 9-6 ATS in night games with the Seahawks and Jets – Geno has been favored in just two of those games.

Seahawks End Underdog Streak

➤The Seahawks streak of ten consecutive games as underdogs come to an end this week. They were last favored in a game back in Week 5 vs. Giants.
The Seahawks were in a class of their own, being above .500 SU at the end of a 10-game underdog streak. First team in the Wild Card era since 1990.

Geno’s Home And Road Split

➤Geno Smith has been a different QB at home vs. the road.
Home: 3-6 SU, 2-7 ATS, 11 TD, 13 INT, 85.8 pass rtg
Road: 5-1 SU, 4-1-1 ATS, 6 TD, 2 INT, 96.9 pass rtg
Seahawks are 2-7 ATS at home this year, they haven’t lost 7+ games ATS at home since 2004 (finished 1-8 ATS at home including the playoffs).

Chicago’s First-Half Struggles

➤Starting strong has been an issue for Chicago this year. Caleb Williams is 4-11 against the first half spread this year, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL. Caleb hasn’t covered a first half since facing the Packers over a month ago (five straight losses 1H ATS) and he is 1-8 1H ATS over the last eight weeks.

Bears’ NFC North Woes

➤Bears haven’t won a ton of games this year, but they are 0-5 SU vs. the NFC North and 0-4 SU the week after facing their own division.

Caleb Williams’ No-Interception Streak

➤It hasn’t all been Caleb’s fault. He’s now gone 9 straight games without an interception.
Most consecutive losses for QB with no INT since the merger:
Caleb Williams 9, 2024
Cody Kessler 5, 2016
Jeff George 5, 1993-94

Rookie QBs Struggle On Thursday Games

➤Thursday games aren’t always an easy task for any team or QB, but especially rookie QBs. They are 18-34 SU playing on a Thursday since 2000, including 1-4 SU this season and 7-14 SU since 2018.

Seattle’s Travel Troubles

➤Little bit of a travel spot for Seattle. Since 2018, they’ve gone from a home game to a road game on short rest six times and they are 1-5 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in those road games.

Teams Struggle After Facing Lions

➤The Lions beat the Bears last week. Teams after facing the Lions are now 6-8 SU and 3-11 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 8.9 PPG and 17-30 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.

Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.

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Sunday, Dec. 28
1:00pm ET on NFL Network
Justin Herbert vs. Drake Maye
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Saturday NFL Football Returns

➤Welcome to more Saturday NFL football.
Since 2003, we’ve had 115 total games played during the regular season on a Saturday – almost all coming late in the season like this one. Road teams are 65-44-6 ATS (60%) in regular season Saturday games – but 0-2 ATS this year after the Texans and Steelers didn’t cover last week.

Chargers Benefit From Extended Rest

➤Unlike most teams who play on a Saturday, Chargers are actually on extended rest after playing last Thursday against the Broncos.
Since the start of the 2022 season, Justin Herbert is just 4-5 ATS on extended prep.

Chargers Defensive Struggles Continue

➤The full season numbers may not do it justice, but the Chargers defense has struggled the last few weeks, facing a few good offenses. Since Week 11, the Chargers have been 3-3 SU; they are 24th in EPA/play on defense, 20th in success rate and 24th or worse in dropback and rush EPA. The over is now 4-2 in their last six games. They were 19-4 to the under in the 23 games before that.

Herbert’s Second-Half ATS History

➤Historically Herbert has struggled against the second half spread going 25-48-5 (34%) against the second half spread in his career, but in 2024, he’s having his best season of his career at 7-8 2H ATS, with the 7 wins being the most he’s had in a single season.
He’s 12-32-2 against the second half spread when leading at halftime as well.

Patriots’ Underdog Struggles

➤Since 2021, the Patriots are 9-33 SU as an underdog, the 2nd-least profitable mark in the NFL, ahead of just the Bears. Drake Maye has started his career 2-8 SU as a dog.

Drake Maye’s Interception Streak

➤Definitely not all his fault with some of these throws and drops, but Drake Maye has had an interception now in seven straight games, tied for the 2nd-longest streak by a rookie QB since 2000 behind only Blake Bortles with 9.

Patriots’ Troubles When Trailing

➤Don’t fall behind. Since the start of 2022, the Patriots are 3-28 SU and 5-25-1 ATS when trailing by 7 points or more at any point; both are the worst marks in the NFL even after New England covered last week vs. Bills.

Drake Maye’s First-Half Struggles

➤Drake Maye has made ten starts in the NFL. He is 3-7 against the first half spread, the 2nd-worst mark for any QB in the NFL this season, ahead of just Caleb Williams.
The Patriots are 29th in 1st half PPG this season after being 30th in 2023 and 25th in 2022.

Home Teams On Short Rest

➤Patriots and Bengals are on short rest this week facing teams on extended rest.
Since 2000, home teams on short rest, facing a team on extended rest are actually 48-32 SU – for a 60% hit rate.

Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.

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Sunday, Dec. 28
4:30pm ET on NFL Network
Bo Nix vs. Joe Burrow
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Joe Burrow’s Success Against Bad Teams

Joe Burrow has dominated bad opponents in his career, going 17-7 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU, including 13-3 ATS since the start of the 2022 season.
This week though it’s a different test with Denver 9-6 SU and having an upstart season. Burrow is 22-12 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU, but just 2-3 ATS this season, his first year under .500 ATS in his career so far.

Playoff Scenarios For Broncos And Bengals

➤With Broncos and Bengals, it’s all about playoff scenarios.
Broncos simply get in with a win or tie in either Week 17 or Week 18.
Bengals need to win out (vs Denver, at Pittsburgh), have Denver lose Week 18 and have the Dolphins and Colts lose at least one more game.

Bo Nix’s Record-Breaking Rookie Season

➤In Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 11-4 ATS this year, including 6-2 ATS on the road. Nix is the most profitable QB ATS in the NFL this season entering Week 17.
In fact, Nix is only the 4th rookie QB to cover 11+ games in a season in the Wild Card era, since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck and 2008 Joe Flacco.

Ja'Marr Chase’s Triple Crown Campaign

➤Ja’Marr Chase is now the leader for the triple crown with Rec, Rec Yds, Rec TD entering Week 17. Chase was in the top-4 in odds in all 3 categories in the preseason.
Since the merger here are the only players to do it for receiving: Jerry Rice, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Smith Sr. and Cooper Kupp.

Sean Payton’s Road ATS Success

➤Broncos head coach Sean Payton has also been great ATS on the road or a neutral site, he is 83-60-3 ATS (58%), including 33-16-1 ATS since 2018, best mark for any head coach in the NFL.
On the road, when his opponent is averaging 24+ PPG, Payton is 29-13 ATS in his career.

Broncos Thrive On Extended Rest

➤Broncos will have a little extra time to prep for this one after playing on TNF last week.
Already in 2024, the Broncos have played on extended prep time three times and they are 3-0 SUATS, scoring 100 combined points in all three games. Overall on extended prep, Payton coached teams are 42-21 SU (67%) in his career.

Burrow’s Post-Browns ATS Record

➤Burrow has historically struggled with the Browns, not this version of the Browns last week. In his career, Burrow is 6-2 ATS after facing Cleveland.

Joe Burrow’s Rest-Based Performance

➤How has Joe Burrow performed based on rest?
On short rest, Burrow is 8-3 ATS. He is 8-7-1 ATS on extended rest during the season, not including Week 1s. On normal 7-day rest, Burrow is 28-14 ATS.

Bengals’ One-Score Game Struggles

➤One-score games have not been kind to Cincinnati this season. They are 2-7 SU in one-score games, the 4th-worst mark in the NFL. Dating back to last year, the Bengals are 4-10 SU in their last 14 one-score games.

Joe Burrow’s Second-Half ATS History

➤In Burrow’s career, he's 43-30-1 (59%) against the second-half spread. He's 9-16 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
Entering this contest, Burrow has lost four straight games against the 2H spread, the longest streak of his career.

Get the latest coverage on NFL Weather.

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Sunday, Dec. 28
8:00pm ET on NFL Network
Kyler Murray vs. Matthew Stafford
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McVay’s Divisional Dominance

➤Sean McVay has enjoyed his games against divisional opponents, going 30-18-1 ATS in his career. Compared to 44-45-3 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
Last 20 years, McVay is 4th-best among all coaches vs. divisional opponents – he’s .500 ATS or better in all 7 seasons with Rams.
McVay vs. divisional opponents:
ARI: 12-3-1 ATS | SEA: 11-5 ATS (23-8-1 ATS combined)
SF: 7-10 ATS

McVay’s Night Game Record

➤Sean McVay is 21-18-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 8-3 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-13-2 ATS.

Kyler Murray’s Struggles Against Rams

➤Kyler Murray has faced the Rams ten times in his career. He is 2-8 SU and 2-7-1 ATS against them, losing four of his last five games SU and ATS dating back to 2021.
In his career, Murray has failed to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG vs. Rams. Against all teams not named the Rams, Murray is 41-29-1 ATS.

Kyler’s Success Playing In Eastern Time Zone

➤Murray has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST, he is 13-4 ATS, including 19-8 ATS playing in either EST or CST — covering the spread by 4.3 PPG — and only 24-28-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.

Profitable Kyler Road Unders

➤Kyler road unders have been profitable in his career. They are 25-13-1 and .500 or better in all five of his seasons entering this year – he’s ranked third of 277 QBs since 2005 in road unders. At home, Murray is just the opposite. 24-18 to the over in his career.

Murray’s Strength As An Underdog

➤Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 31-17-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL.

Since he entered the NFL, he's the most profitable QB ATS as an underdog.

As an underdog of more than 4 pts, Kyler is also 14-6-2 ATS, finishing above .500 ATS in each of his six seasons.

Division Matchup Trends Late In The Season

➤When two division teams play, both with a win pct between 40-60% late in the season (Dec or later), the home team has been dreadful, going 45-72-2 ATS (39%) since 2003 – they are already 0-2 ATS this season.

Rams Defense And First-Half Fading System

➤The Rams defense has been stingy lately. This system looks to fade good defenses of late in the first half.


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NFL Betting Systems

System: Later in the season, bet good teams on 3rd down against bad ones. Simple as that.

Matches: BAL, KC, CIN

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$: Bet Good Off 3D Teams, Nov On
the opposing teams percentage of third downs which are converted to a first down or touchdown is between 0 and 44.9
the game was played in December or November or January
the game is played during the Regular season
the team's percentage of third downs which are converted to a first down or touchdown is between 45 and 100
$4,242
WON
343-282-21
RECORD
55%
WIN%

System: Fade teams trying to get into the playoffs against ones already eliminated.

Matches: Fade SEA

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$$: Fighting Teams vs. Bad, Week 16 on
the opposing team's win percentage is between 0% and 49%
the team's win percentage is between 50% and 59%
the week number or round is 16 or 17 or 18
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
$-2,712
WON
45-71-4
RECORD
39%
WIN%

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System: West coast road teams traveling east — over a 61% ATS win pct last six seasons.

Matches: LAC, DEN

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$$: Game in EST, Road Team, Road team is PST/MST (since 2019) (YEAR)
the game was played during the 2024-25 or 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 season
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
the game is played in the Eastern timezone
the team is the Visitor team
the visitor's timezone is in the Pacific or Mountain timezone
$2,781
WON
89-56-4
RECORD
61%
WIN%

System: A PRO system of ours, looking at divisional unders.

Matches: LAR/ARI

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PRO: Divisional Unders
the closing total is between 44.5 and 60
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
the game is a Division game
betting on the Under
the game was played in December or November
Is the dome closed: N
$4,970
WON
193-133-5
RECORD
59%
WIN%

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About the Author
Evan is the Director of Research for the Action Network. Born and raised in New York City, he solely roots for teams who cover. His fears: bullpens, quicksand and stoppage time.

Follow Evan Abrams @EvanHAbrams on Twitter/X.

This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Action Network makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.