The combine has come and gone, so it's time for me to update my 2020 rookie dynasty fantasy football rankings.
I have three different models I use to evaluate rookies and project their NFL production.
- Pre-Combine Model: This version relies mainly on college production, reported physical profile, recruitment ranking and estimated draft position.
- Post-Combine Model: This version replaces reported physical numbers with exact data from the combine.
- Post-Draft Model: This version replaces estimated draft position with exact draft position and adds projected first-year production to the equation.
With the post-combine model, there's still a lot of guess work because draft position is such an important factor in NFL success.
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Also, at this stage in the process, I'm pretty comfortable overriding my model with a few key players I want to move up or down the rankings manually.
After the draft, I try to stick with the model as much as I can, because I've found that the numbers tend to know more than I do at that stage in the process: In my top 50 rankings for the 2019 class, I was too low on wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Devin Singletary, but there will always be misses, and I was appropriately high on running backs Josh Jacobs and Miles Sanders, quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver A.J. Brown. Perhaps more importantly, I was correctly low on running backs David Montgomery and Darrell Henderson.
In comparison to the way-too-early pre-combine rookie rankings I released in early January, here are a couple of the players who have significantly moved up and down in this version of the rankings.
- Higher in Rankings: WR Henry Ruggs III (9 from 21), WR Denzel Mims (12 from 31)
- Lower in Rankings: WR Tyler Johnson (23 from 12), WR Antonio Gandy-Golden (24 from 15)
It's also worth noting that since I published my first rankings, a number of strong underclassmen expected to declare decided to stay in school.
- Clemson RB Travis Etienne: 2,046 yards, 23 touchdowns (2019)
- Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard: 2,292 yards, 21 touchdowns (2019)
- Alabama RB Najee Harris: 1,528 yards, 20 touchdowns (2019)
- Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill: 1,530 yards, 11 touchdowns (2019)
- Alabama WR DeVonta Smith: 1,256 yards, 14 touchdowns (2019)
- Oklahoma State WR Tylan Wallace: 903 yards, 8 touchdowns (9 games, 2019)
- Wake Forest WR Sage Surratt: 1,001 yards, 11 touchdowns (9 games, 2019)
Most, if not all, of these players could have reasonably been selected in Rounds 1-2 of 2020 rookie fantasy drafts. Because of these underclassman defections, this class is not as great as it might have been.
But the 2020 rookies are still impressive. This class might have the most 21-year-old skill-position players in NFL history.
With so many young producers, this class will likely offer multiple Round 1 talents in the middle of Round 2. If you can acquire extra picks for rookie drafts, do it.
Here are my post-combine rankings for 2020 rookie drafts in dynasty leagues.
2020 Rookie Dynasty Rankings
Matthew Freedman is 591-466-22 (55.9%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app. He’s the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs.
