Week 11 turned out to be a pretty important week to pay attention to. The Commanders faced the Eagles, and the Chiefs faced the Bills — both turned out to be previews of Conference Championship weekend.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know. Here's the Conference Championship version of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Jan. 21, at 5 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Command and Conquer
Jayden Makes History
The lone big dog left in the field, the Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all.
The Commanders were the 9th team listed at 150-1 or longer to make the Divisional Round of the playoffs, and they are now the 4th to make a Conference Championship. Here’s how the 150-1 or longer teams have performed in the playoffs:
- One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
- One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
- One team lost in Conf. Championship (1979 Bucs)
Daniels is the 2nd rookie QB to be 150-1 or longer in the preseason and make the Conference Championship, joining Kurt Warner in 1999 (Warner was technically a rookie who didn’t play in 1998).
Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has always come from the top 8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs, including from the top 6 in each of the past 11 seasons. The last team to win outside the top 6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens. Here are the top 6 in odds this year: Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles, and Vikings.
The Commanders beat the Bucs as underdogs, then the Lions as dogs, and now they’ll try to beat the Eagles as dogs before they would be dogs to either team in the AFC. The 2008 Giants are the only team to win as dogs in three straight playoff games entering a Super Bowl.
This Is Our House
Arrowhead Avengers
When you take Mahomes off the road, it’s tough to beat him. In January and February, Mahomes is 15-2 SU in home or neutral-site games, with his losses coming against Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. He’s 43-6 SU in that spot in November or later.
In the playoffs, Mahomes is 7-0 SU and ATS when either listed as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal, covering the spread by 5.9 PPG.
In home games in November or later, when the temperature is 40 degrees or less, Mahomes is 23-2 SU in his career – his losses were to Philip Rivers in 2018 and Tom Brady in the 2019 playoffs.
Mahomes has won 20 consecutive games outright since that loss to Brady in the playoffs.
In the playoffs, scoring hasn’t mattered for Buffalo. Since 2020-21, the Bills are 6-3 SU in the playoffs when scoring 21 points or more, 0-3 SU against the Chiefs, and 6-0 SU against all other teams.
Extra Day
All Matters
Since the 2003-04 season, there has always been a rest advantage in Conference Championship week, with teams playing on Saturday and Sunday in the Divisional Round.
Teams with a rest advantage are 26-16 SU in the Conference Championship during that span, winning by 2.6 PPG. This year, those teams are the Chiefs and Commanders. Teams with a rest advantage are also 20-7 SU at home.
Dog Love
Winning Outright
Underdogs are 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS entering Conference Championship week in the playoffs. This will be the 5th straight postseason where underdogs have gone .500 ATS or better, the longest streak since 2000. There have only been a few playoff campaigns where underdogs finished .500 SU or better in the end:
- 2017, 6-5 SU
- 2000, 6-5 SU
- 1987, 5-4 SU
- 1980, 6-3 SU
- 1970, 4-3 SU
We’re just coming off a regular season to remember for favorites — the best ATS season from a profit/ROI POV since 2017. Overall, favorites ended 2024 with a 195-77 SU record (71.7%), the 3rd-best season since 1980.
Since 2017, underdogs in the playoffs are now 59-37 ATS (62%) with a 19% ROI. Favorites officially went 0-4 ATS on the closing line in the Divisional Round — just the third time that has happened since the merger in 1970 and the first time since 2007.
Since 2003, underdogs in the Conference Championship are 20-22 ATS, the only round of the playoffs below .500 ATS in that span. In the Super Bowl era (since 1966), underdogs are 53-62-1 ATS in the Conference Championship.
Staying Strong
Fighting Back
Teams leading at the half in this year's NFL playoffs are 3-6 against the second-half spread, with those teams going .500 2H ATS or worse for three straight playoffs. Plus, teams leading at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 20-32-3 against the second-half spread over the last 20 years.
Still On Top
Chiefs Go For History
The Chiefs entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600 and won it all. KC then entered this season also as favorites, listed at +500. The last team to win back-to-back titles, both as the preseason betting favorite, was the 1988-89 49ers.
The Chiefs are the 4th team to win two straight titles and make the Conference Championship for a third. The 1994 Cowboys were +7 on the road and lost, the 1990 49ers lost as an 8-point home favorite vs. the Giants, and the 1976 Steelers were -4 on the road and lost to the Raiders.
Conference Championship
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Commanders Break Longshot Records
➤ The lone big dog left in the field, the Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all.
The Commanders were the 9th team listed at 150-1 or longer to make the Divisional Round of the playoffs, and they are now the 4th to make a Conference Championship.
Here is how the 150-1 or longer teams performed in the playoffs:
- One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
- One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
- One team lost in Conf. Championship (1979 Bucs)
Daniels is the 2nd rookie QB to be 150-1 or longer in the preseason and make the Conference Championship, joining Kurt Warner in 1999 (Warner was technically a rookie who didn’t play in 1998).
Jayden Daniels In Uncharted Territory
➤Jayden Daniels will be the 6th rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game. The previous five went 0-5 SU, with four passing touchdowns and nine interceptions. No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it.
Previous Rookie QB Results:
- 2022 Brock Purdy (left injured)
- 2009 Mark Sanchez: 2 TD, 1 INT
- 2008 Joe Flacco: 0 TD, 3 INT
- 2004 Ben Roethlisberger: 2 TD, 3 INT
- 1999 Shaun King: 0 TD, 2 INT
Jayden Daniels was also the 3rd rookie QB of all time to lead a 4th-quarter comeback on the road in the postseason — the previous two (2009 Sanchez, 2012 Wilson) lost their next playoff game. Not Daniels, who creates his own path.
Commanders Face Another Road Test
➤To get to the Super Bowl, the Commanders will need to win on the road again:
- Week 18: won at Cowboys
- Wild Card: won at Bucs
- Divisional: won at Lions
- Champ.: at Eagles
The Commanders will be the 8th team since 2000 to enter a playoff game on the 4th game or later of a road trip. Those previous teams are 0-7 SU and 1-5-1 ATS.
The Eagles will be the 10th team to play four or more consecutive home games entering a Conference Championship over the last 20 years. The previous nine went 7-2 SU (5-4 ATS).
The only losses? The Ravens last year vs. Chiefs and the 2019 Saints vs. Rams. Philly hasn’t played on the road since facing the Commanders before Christmas.
Eagles will also be the 5th team to play 3 playoff games in their home stadium in the same season:
- 2021 Chiefs
- 2021 Rams (includes Super Bowl)
- 1982 Washington (expanded playoffs in strike season)
- 1982 Miami (expanded playoffs in strike season)
Commanders Ride 7-Game Win Streak
➤ The Commanders own the NFL’s longest SU win streak at 7 games, their longest win streak since their 2013 playoff loss to the Seahawks.
Overall, 15 teams have entered a Conference Championship on a 7+ game SU win streak since 2004 — they are 4-11 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 4.5 PPG.
Six-Seeds Struggle In Big Games
➤ The Commanders are a 6-seed in the Conference Championship game.
Six seeds are 3-6 SU and 4-5 ATS in the Conference Championship and Super Bowl since 1990. When they are +4 or higher in either of these rounds, they are 0-4 SU/ATS. The 2006 Steelers beating the Broncos are the only 6-seed underdogs to win in either of these rounds.
Third Matchups Favor Road Teams
➤Since 2004, teams meeting for a third time during the same season have favored the road side, with the away team going 18-11-1 against the spread.
Hurts Dominates At Home In Playoffs
➤ Jalen Hurts has played four home games in the playoffs, and he is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.
Hurts is 9-2 SU at home in division games as QB of the Eagles. His two losses have both come against Washington, against Taylor Heinicke and Alex Smith.
As a home favorite, Hurts is 25-3 SU in his career. A $100 bettor taking his moneyline in each game would be up $609, the 4th-best of any QB in the last 20 years — Brady, Flacco, Peyton, Hurts.
Rare Losses For Big Championship Favorites
➤ Losing as a 6+ pt favorite doesn’t happen often in the Conference Championship. Favorites on the close of that big are 13-3 SU since 2002-03. Here are the three losses:
- 2022 Mahomes, -7 vs. CIN
- 2013 Brady, -8 vs. BAL
- 2008 Rodgers, -7.5 vs. NYG
Eagles' Sack Struggles Raise Concerns
➤ The Eagles allowed a ton of sacks last week in the Divisional Round vs. the Rams. Hurts’ 7 sacks were the 2nd-most by an Eagles QB in the playoffs. History says to fade them. Teams that allow 7 sacks or more are 100-129-6 ATS (43.7%) over the last 20 years, including 17-28-1 ATS in the last three seasons and 2-5-1 ATS in the playoffs overall.
Since the merger in 1970, Philly is the 6th team to win after allowing 7+ sacks. The previous five teams went 1-4 SU in their next game.
Commanders Lose Key Offensive Guard
➤ The Commanders lost guard Sam Cosmi for the season. He had the 4th-most pass block snaps for any guard this year, and of 51 guards with at least 500+ pass block snaps, he was one of 11 with 1 sack or fewer allowed.
Red Zone Efficiency Could Be Key
➤ The red zone has been an issue for the Eagles. They were 13th in red zone pct during the regular season, but they are 1-6 in the playoffs, and against the Commanders this year, they went 3-7 in two games.
Philly scored 28 points last week while going 0-2 in the red zone. Eleven times in the playoffs, a team has won after converting zero red zone trips, and their next game is 9-2 to the over since 2003.
Turnovers And Playoff History
➤ Over their last two playoff games, the Eagles' defense has forced six turnovers. Washington’s offense, on the other hand, hasn’t turned it over in either of the two playoff games.
Only one team hasn’t turned it over in three straight playoff games to begin a playoff campaign — the 2018 Jaguars, who lost in the Conference Championship game to the Patriots.
Hurts’ Low Passing Yards A Concern
➤ Hurts has 259 total passing yards in two playoff games. Over the last 20 years, three teams have won consecutive playoff games with 150 total passing yards or fewer in each — those previous three teams went 0-3 SU/ATS in their next playoff game.
- 2022-23 Eagles vs. Chiefs
- 2020-21 49ers vs. Chiefs
- 2020-21 Titans vs. Chiefs
Referee Trends Favor Eagles
➤ Shawn Hochuli is listed as the main official for Commanders/Eagles. Philly is 5-0 SU under Nick Sirianni and Jalen Hurts with Hochuli as the main official.
Hochuli has refereed four Washington games, and they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in those games.
The under is 63-45-3 (58%) with Hochuli as the main official since 2018, the 2nd-best official to the under, behind only Bill Vinovich.
Eagles Are Perfect With A Lead
➤ We’ve heard a lot of stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 16-0 SU and 13-3 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 points or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
Commanders Thrive After Big Wins
➤ The Commanders beat the Lions by 14 on the road last week. Teams entering the Conference Championship or Super Bowl after winning by 14+ on the road are 6-2 SU since 2003 — they are 0-2 SU vs. Patrick Mahomes and 6-0 SU vs. all other opponents.
Changing Game Styles Proves Challenging
➤ Changing styles can be difficult. Only two teams in the last 20 years have won in the playoffs with a total of 55+ and then played their next playoff game with a total of 49 or less. Both lost SU/ATS.
Commanders: The Cardiac Kids
➤ Washington has been the cardiac kids this season, winning on the last play in their last five straight games prior to last week. Their games are 13-6 to the 4th quarter this season, the best mark of any team in the NFL.
Road Fatigue For Playoff Teams
➤ In the last 20 years of the playoffs, in the Divisional Round or later, teams playing a second consecutive road game (or more) are just 22-45 SU (33%) — when the game is played inside the division, they are 5-6 SU (17-39 SU outside the division).
Also, the Commanders have extra rest. Teams in this spot on normal or short rest are 15-41 SU (27%). On extra rest, they are 7-4 SU, 6-4 SU as underdogs.
Mahomes Dominates Allen In The Playoffs
➤ Patrick Mahomes has faced Josh Allen three times in the playoffs — he is 3-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 6.7 PPG. The over is also 3-0 in those matchups.
During the regular season, Mahomes is 1-4 SU/ATS vs. Allen, failing to cover the spread by 5.9 PPG. Mahomes has lost 4 in a row, both SU and ATS, vs. Allen in the regular season.
Pressure Stats In Last 5 Games vs. Bills:
- 6 TD passes, 0 INT in a clean pocket
- 5 TD passes, 5 INT under pressure
- 4 TD passes, 0 INT in play-action and screen game
Josh Allen's Second-Half Spread Streak Ends
➤ The streak came to an end last week. Josh Allen lost the 2nd-half spread for the first time since October vs. the Jets.
He had covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is now 15-3 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL.
Under Allen, the Bills are 74-45-3 (62%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s been the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
In the playoffs, though, Allen is just 3-9 against the 2nd-half spread, including 1-5 2H ATS in the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds.
Allen Excels Against Top Defenses
➤ Josh Allen has faced a top defense — one allowing fewer than 20 PPG — 34 times in his career. Allen is 27-7 SU, 26-7-1 ATS in those games, the most profitable QB ATS since 2003 in that spot, ahead of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
When the spread is 4 points or less in those 34 games with Allen facing a good defense, Buffalo is 16-2 SU/ATS in those games.
Buffalo's Home Underdog Streak Broken
➤ Last week, we saw the Bills and Josh Allen close as home dogs and win. It broke an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970.
In Josh Allen’s career, he has never won consecutive games outright with both games being listed as an underdog. He’s had 15 different opportunities as a dog in consecutive games.
Mahomes Shines On Extended Rest
➤ After 23 days off prior to KC’s game vs. the Texans, the Chiefs are on extended rest here, playing on Saturday and the AFC Championship on Sunday.
On extended rest, Mahomes is 32-7 SU, 19-19-1 ATS during the season, and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 38-8 SU and 24-21-1 ATS on extended rest.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 29-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Freezing Temperatures Favor Both QBs
➤ The weather is projected to be about 25 degrees with some light wind for this game.
Mahomes is 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS in freezing temperatures, including 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS at home. Josh Allen has played 21 games in freezing temperatures; he is 17-4 SU, but 15-2 SU at home in Buffalo and 2-2 SU away from home.
Chiefs Thrive In Revenge Spots
➤ The Chiefs lost to the Bills in their previous matchup. Since 2019, the Chiefs are 24-7 SU after losing to their current opponent in their last meeting. When that game is at home, they are 13-4 SU.
Mahomes has closed at -3 or shorter, or as a dog, vs. a team KC lost to in their last matchup; he is 9-3 ATS, with losses to Allen and Burrow in the regular season and Brady in the playoffs.
Mahomes Is Dominant In Late Season Home Games
➤ When you take Mahomes off the road, it’s tough to beat him. In January and February, Mahomes is 15-2 SU in home or neutral-site games, with his losses to Joe Burrow and Tom Brady. He’s 43-6 SU in that spot in November or later.
In home games in November or later, when the temperature is 40 degrees or less, Mahomes is 23-2 SU in his career — his losses to Philip Rivers in 2018 and Tom Brady in the 2019 playoffs.
Mahomes has won 20 consecutive games outright since that loss to Brady in the playoffs.
Mahomes' Success As A Small Favorite Or Underdog
➤ As a small favorite or an underdog, Mahomes is tough to beat. As a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, he is 27-9-1 ATS. In a 6-point teaser, he’s 31-6 in that spot and 35-2 in a 10-point tease.
Referee Trends Favor Scoring
➤ Clete Blakeman will be officiating the AFC Championship game. In the 19 total games he’s officiated for Mahomes and Allen, the over is 13-6 in those games, 7-4 for Mahomes and 6-2 for Allen.
Patrick Mahomes has 26 total losses in his NFL career. His five losses (19% of his losses) with Clete Blakeman as the official are the most for any referee. He is 6-5 SU in those games. In 2024, road teams had 11 SU wins in Blakeman's games, tied for the most of any official.
Night Games Favor Favorites
➤ Favorites in night games went 47-12 SU during the regular season, the best mark for any year since 1971.
In the playoffs, favorites in night games are 1-4 SU, having lost four in a row since the Ravens beat the Steelers in the first night game of the playoffs.
Chiefs’ Second-Half Unders Dominate
➤ Over the last two seasons, the second-half under in Chiefs games is 29-10 (74%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.8 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
In Mahomes’ home starts, the 2H under is 41-26-3 (61.2%) in his career — the 2nd-most profitable mark for any QB over the last 20 years, behind only Philip Rivers.
Kelce Continues To Set Records
➤Travis Kelce holds tons of playoff receiving records, including most receptions (172). Two he doesn’t yet are career playoff receiving yards and career playoff TDs.
Receiving Yards:
- Jerry Rice: 2,245
- Travis Kelce: 2,020 (226 away from breaking)
- Julian Edelman: 1,442
Receiving TDs:
- Jerry Rice: 22
- Travis Kelce: 20
- Rob Gronkowski: 15
Kelce has had success vs. Bills at Arrowhead. In five career games, he has:
- 55+ rec yds in all five games
- 80+ rec yds in 4 of 5 games
- 6+ receptions in all five games
- 9+ targets in all five games
- 4 total TDs (either a TD or 80+ receiving yards in each of the five games).
Chiefs Remain Super Bowl Favorites
➤The Chiefs entered the regular season last year as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +600 and won it all. KC then entered the season this year also as favorites, listed at +500.
In the Wild Card era since 1990, the preseason Super Bowl favorite has won the title six times:
- 2023 Chiefs
- 2018 & 2016 Patriots
- 2006 Colts
- 1994 49ers
- 1993 Cowboys
The last team to win back-to-back titles as preseason betting favorites was the 1988-89 49ers.
Chiefs And Turnover Battle Trends
➤ The Chiefs were the only winning team in the Divisional Round to not win the turnover battle.
When the Chiefs get even or win the turnover battle since 2018, they are 82-10 SU and 56-35-1 ATS. When they lose the TO battle, they are still 24-19-1 SU, but 12-28-3 ATS.
Best SU win pct since 2018 when losing TO battle:
- Chiefs: 55.8%
- Bills: 41%
- Rams: 38%
The Bills are on a 21-game streak of not losing the turnover battle, longest in NFL history.
Most consecutive games not losing the turnover battle, NFL history (since 1960)
1. 2023-24 Bills – 21 games (active)
2. 2006-07 Patriots – 20 games
3. 2010-11 Packers – 19 games
Mahomes’ Home Games Lean To The Under
➤ In Patrick Mahomes' home starts, the under is 42-27-1 (61%) in his career, the 3rd-best mark for any QB since he was drafted, behind his teammate Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones.
Overall, the under is 6-1 in the Chiefs’ last seven games, including 25-14 since the start of last season.
Chiefs On A Two-Game ATS Losing Streak
➤ The Chiefs enter this game on a 2-game ATS losing streak, the longest of the final four teams.
Since 2000, ten teams have played in a Conference Championship on a 2+ game ATS losing streak. They are 3-7 ATS, failing to cover by 3.9 PPG.
Bills Scoring Season
➤ Bills are a scoring machine. These teams have struggled ATS later in the playoffs.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: First half overs have been profitable in the Conference Championship, going 13-5 over the last decade, going .500 or better in all but one season.
Matches: Check updated lines
System: Good teams on extended rest have struggled to cover the spread.
Matches: KC
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System: Fade good teams on ATS losing streaks. Chiefs have lost two straight ATS, the system says bet Buffalo.
Matches: BUF
System: Teams who lead at the half in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl are 20-32-3 against the second half spread over the last 20 years. When those teams are on the road or neutral site, they are 9-19-1 2H ATS.
Matches: Check second half lines
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