The two biggest themes entering Conference Championship weekend? Movement and streaking. Where will the Chiefs line close? Can anyone beat the 49ers and their 12-game win streak?
Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Conference Championship edition of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Jan. 29, 3 p.m. ET.
1. A True Toss Up
"It's a toss up" has reached new heights.
- For the first time in the last 45 seasons, the favorite entering Conference Championship week has longer than +200 odds.
- Both Conference Championship games haven’t closed under a 3-point spread since 1998 and it has only happened now three times overall in the Super Bowl era.
- The Bills (+600) and Buccaneers (+750) both failed to make the Conference Championship game and had the top-two odds to win it all in the preseason. It's the first time since 2015 the top-two teams in preseason Super Bowl odds didn’t the Conference title game (SEA/GB) and the first time since 2010 no team below 10-1 odds to win it all in the preseason didn’t make the Conference title game.
2. The Dog .. Once Again!
Chiefs opened as 3-point favorites, subsequently moved to Bengals as 2.5-point favorites and now we are back to Kansas City as a home favorite.
- Joe Burrow has been a road underdog eight times over the last two seasons: the Bengals are 8-0 against the spread in those games. The only other QB undefeated ATS away from home last two seasons (min. 5 starts)? Jimmy Garoppolo (5-0 ATS).
- Burrow is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Patrick Mahomes in his career. All 3 starts as an underdog. Burrow has covered 8 straight games as an underdog. The Bengals have covered 9 straight games as an underdog.
- Since the start of last season, Burrow is 14-0 in a 6-pt teaser when listed as an underdog.
3. We're Going Streaking!
Patrick Mahomes is now favored in his 13th consecutive playoff game to begin his career, including the AFC Championship on Sunday — the longest streak to begin a career in the Super Bowl era.
If the Chiefs advance to the Super Bowl, and the Chiefs are favored again, Mahomes will tie Peyton Manning's record of 14 consecutive games as a favorite in the playoffs.
4. The Best of All Time?
If the 49ers cover the spread against the Eagles on Sunday, Kyle Shanahan would move to 8-1 against the spread all time in the playoffs — an 88.9% win rate — the best of any coach with a minimum of five games coached in the playoffs.
Conference Championship Weekend
Game-By-Game Breakdown
| Brock Purdy, SF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
6-1 ATS 7-0 SU | 6-1 ATS 7-0 SU | 2-0 ATS 2-0 SU |
| Jalen Hurts, PHI | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
9-7 ATS 15-1 SU | 18-17-1 ATS 24-12 SU | 1-1 ATS 1-1 SU |
Quarterback
+ Brock Purdy will be the fifth rookie quarterback to start a Conference Championship game. The previous four went 0-4 SU with four passing touchdowns and nine interceptions.
- 2022 Brock Purdy
- 2009 Mark Sanchez, 2 TD, 1 INT
- 2008 Joe Flacco, 0 TD, 3 INT
- 2004 Ben Roethlisberger, 2 TD, 3 INT
- 1999 Shaun King, 0 TD, 2 INT
+ Purdy has won his first seven starts straight up with the 49ers, a San Francisco record. No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it. He's the second rookie quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win each of his first seven career starts.
Rookie QB to win first six career starts
- 2022 Brock Purdy (7)
- 2004 Ben Roethlisberger (13)
+ Rookie QBs this season are 22-11 SU, 24-9 ATS entering the Conference Championship.
+ Since 1990, rookie QBs are 12-18 SU in the playoffs, including 5-11 SU over the last decade.
The College Days
+ Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 7-0 SU with the 49ers (32-12 SU)
+ Purdy’s last loss straight up? 2021 Cheez-It Bowl vs. Clemson.
+ Purdy vs. Hurts II: They faced at Iowa State vs. Oklahoma in 2019.
- Oklahoma won 42-41 as 14-pt favorites
- Purdy: 19-30, 5 TD, 0 INT (6 total TD)
- Hurts: 18-26, 3 TD, 1 INT (5 total TD)
Brock Purdy will face Jalen Hurts on Sunday in the NFC Championship…
The last time they met, we saw an absolute thriller between Iowa State and Oklahoma in 2019 🔥 pic.twitter.com/ioDuZDVDum
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 23, 2023
Head Coach
+ Kyle Shanahan is the third-most profitable coach in the playoffs over the last 20 years at 7-1 ATS. With an ATS win over the Eagles, he would be second-best behind Tom Coughlin.
Most Profitable Coaches ATS in Playoffs Last 20 Years
- Tom Coughlin 9-2 ATS
- Doug Pederson 7-1 ATS
- Kyle Shanahan 7-1 ATS
- John Harbaugh 13-7 ATS
+ Eagles defense allows 20 PPG this season, which ranks top five in the NFL.
Shanahan is 16-27-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 40-16 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.
+ 49ers are 11-30 SU when trailing at the half under Kyle Shanahan.
SF has won four straight games when trailing at the half: Seahawks, Rams, Chargers, Raiders.
+ Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 26-11 SU, 24-12-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game as well. In all other time zones after playing in PST, he is 12-11 SU/ATS.
- As coach of the 49ers, Shanahan will make the PST to EST trip in-season for the 10th time and San Francisco is 6-3 SU/ATS in those games, covering by 5.2 PPG. Shanahan is 6-1 ATS with Jimmy Garoppolo in that spot and 0-2 SU/ATS without him (Beathard/Mullens), losing by a combined score of 60-19 (avg. 9.5 PPG).
- The 49ers will be the fourth team to play in the Conference Championship over the last 20 years traveling from PST to EST: '13 SF won in ATL, '10 NYJ lost in IND, '07 NE lost in IND
49ers Notes
+ Prior to this season, the 49ers have won playoff games in spite of their QBs recently. They were 8-4 SU in the last decade in the playoffs with 11 pass TD and 11 interceptions. 6 of the 12 games they threw for under 200 yards. 7 of the 12 games they had under 60% completion percentage.
- Purdy in the playoffs: three passing TDs, 500+ passing yds, no interceptions.
- Only other rookie QB with no picks through two starts in playoffs? 2008-09 Joe Flacco, who threw three interceptions on road in Pittsburgh in AFC Championship that year (L, 23-14)
+ 49ers have won 12 consecutive games SU entering the Conference Championship, their longest win streak (inc. playoffs) since 1984, matching a franchise record.
- In the last 20 years, San Francisco is only the 4th team to win 10+ games SU entering the Conference Championship: 23 SF, 08 NE, 05 PIT, 04 NE. Tom Brady/NE won all three games.
- Teams on a 10+ games SU win streak are 4-13 ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 years. The 2023 49ers have two of those four covers.
+ 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t.
49ers Record When Deebo Gets at Least One Target:
- With: 35-16 SU
- Without: 8-8 SU
+ The 49ers defense have outscored their opponents 192-66 in second halves of their last 12 games.
+ 49ers are the first team in NFL history to win 12 straight games while having no more than one turnover in each one (reg & post).
+ The Eagles and 49ers averaged the fourth- and seventh-most rushing yards per game during the regular season. This will be just the second Conference Championship over the last 20 years to feature two rush offenses averaging 125+ rush yards/game: 2019 Rams/Saints. Rams (+3) won on road.
In the last 20 years, when two teams averaging at least 130 rushing yards per game face off in the playoffs — which has only happened six times, including both NFC Divisional round games last week — the under is 6-0, going under the total by 15.5 PPG.
During the regular season, the under is 107-92-4 (53.8%) in this spot as well.
+ Cowboys and 49ers just played their ninth playoff game vs. each other. The winner of their playoff game has gone on to win the Super Bowl in five of the previous eight seasons, making the Super Bowl six times. The winner has also won their next playoff game after their meeting five straight times dating back 50 years.
- 2022, W – NFC Champ
- 1995, W – W SB
- 1994, W – W SB
- 1993, W – W SB
- 1982, W – W SB
- 1972, L – NFC Champ
- 1971, W – W SB
- 1970, L – L SB
Player Props
+ In the second half of the season, both George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey have been touchdown machines.
Most Total TD Since Week 10
- Ekeler, CMC – 10
- Kittle, McKinnon, Jamaal Williams – 9
+ Christian McCaffrey has scored a touchdown in eight straight games, the longest active streak by any player and the longest streak by a 49ers player since Terrell Owens in 1998.
- If you bet $100 on his TD in all eight weeks, you’d be up $560.05. If you rolled over your winnings on $100 wager
- Odds each week: Week 13: -150, Week 14: +100, Week 15: -130, Week 16: -140, Week 17: -165, Week 18: -205, WC: -145, Div: -150
- With the 49ers, CMC has scored in 10 of 13 games for a profit of $436 ($100/game).
+ 49ers since getting Christian McCaffrey full time in Week 8: 12-0 SU, 10-2 ATS.
- Bank on Brock Purdy under passing yards? The passing yards prop under is 16-3 vs. the Eagles in their last 19 games dating back to last season.
That includes the under in nine of 11 games for San Francisco's opponent passing attempts prop and the under in eight of 11 for passing completions.
Quarterback
+ This will be Jalen Hurts’ second playoff game in his NFL career:
- 38-7 win vs. Giants as a 8-pt favorite
- 31-15 loss to Tom Brady and Bucs as a 7-pt underdog.
+ Hurts has had success vs. playoff teams this season, going 6-0 SU vs. playoff teams
+ This season, the Eagles are 15-1 SU with Jalen Hurts and 0-2 SU without him.
+ Hurts has performed much better at home vs. road ATS in his career.
- Home: 12-5-1 ATS – He’s 9-3 ATS at home as an underdog or a favorite of 7 pts or less
- Road: 6-12 ATS – He’s been under .500 ATS on the road each of his three seasons in the NFL.
+ Hurts is 20-4 (83.3%) straight up in games in which his team is favored (12-11-1 ATS). Best SU win pct as favorite (min 15 starts) since 1985: Jim McMahon (36-6, .857) and Steve Bono (24-4, .857)
Most Profitable QBs SU as Favorites Last 2 Seasons
- Cousins 17-4, +$467
- Hurts 20-3, +$394
- Dalton 6-1, +$258
- Burrow 18-6, +$241
- Purdy 7-0, +$239
Hurts is 12-4 1H ATS this season (8-1 1H ATS at home). He was 5-11 1H ATS last season. Hurts is 10-1-2 on the 1H moneyline in his last 13 starts.
Hurts is 7-8-1 2H ATS this season (4-4-1 2H ATS at home)
Game Trends
+ In the NFC Championship Game, the Eagles will be playing their fourth consecutive home game. They last played a road game the day before Christmas.
- Their last three home games all went under the total, prior to that, the Eagles last 12 home games went 11-1 to the over.
- Eagles will be the eighth team to play their fourth consecutive home game entering a Conference Championship in the last 20 years, the previous seven went 6-1 SU. The only loss? 2019 Saints vs. Rams.
+ Eagles enter the Conference Championship allowing 175.7 pass yards per game on defense, best mark in the NFL.
Elite pass defenses haven’t fared too well this late into the playoffs (CC or later), going 1-5 SU/ATS, failing to cover the number by 5.3 PPG.
+ Eagles (10-8) and 49ers (10-9) are only two teams left to the over this season.
+ Eagles and Chiefs are both averaging 28 PPG or more, facing teams scoring below that threshold. In the last 20 years, the more potent offense is just 7-15 ATS in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl, failing to cover the spread by 4 PPG, including 4-13 ATS when listed as favorites.
+ Eagles are 1-4 ATS last five games entering the Conference Championship, their first cover last week since Dec. 11, against the Giants.
Philly is the eighth team in the last 20 years to enter the Conference Championship 1-4 ATS or worse in their last five games and play at home, the previous seven went 6-1 SU (2019 Saints lost).
+ Eagles are 15-3 in a 6-pt teaser this season, tied for the fourth-best record in the NFL and T-best record in the playoffs with the Bengals (also 15-3).
+ Eagles are 13-5 against the first half spread this season, second-best 1H ATS team this season (Lions) and best first half ATS team in the playoffs
Eagles Notes
+ The Eagles offensive line has been fantastic this year.
20 OL have played over 550 pass blocking snaps allowing one sack or fewer this season – Four of those linemen were Eagles: Isaac Seumalo, Landon Dickerson, Jason Kelce & Lane Johnson
+ This season, the Eagles are 14-2 SU with Lane Johnson and 1-1 SU without him.
- Since 2016 without Lane Johnson: 10-21 straight up
- Eagles without Lane Johnson since 2020: 4-11 SU
- Over the last two seasons, Johnson has played 1,026 pass plays and he hasn’t given up a sack and only ONE QB hit.
+ Eagles had five sacks vs. the Giants in the Divisional Round, now 75 total sacks on the season (incl. playoffs), the third-most sacks for any team in a single season since the merger (1970) – 1984 and 1985 Bears, with 82 and 80 sacks.
The Eagles have a sack pct of 6.4% this season entering the Conference Championship – the percentage of plays that end up as a sack for the defense – in the last 20 years of the playoffs, no team has had a sack percentage over 5.6% (Bears in 2010-11).
+ Since the NFL merger in 1970, nine teams have recorded 65+ sacks as a team in the regular season. Eagles are just the second to make a Conference Championship game: 1984 Bears, who lost to the 49ers.
Most Regular Season Sacks by Team since Merger (1970) (Playoff Result)
- 1984 Bears 72 – Conference Champ
- 1989 Vikings 71 – Divisional Round
- 2022 Eagles 70
- 1987 Bears 70 – Divisional Round
- 1985 Giants 68 – Divisional Round
- 2000 Saints 67 – Divisional Round
- 1984 Washington 66 – Divisional Round
- 1981 Jets 66 – Wild Card
- 1985 Raiders 65 – Divisional Round
+ Eagles have won 13 games or more in the regular season three times in franchise history. The previous two times they made the Super Bowl.
- 2022 – 14-3 SU
- 2017 – 13-3 SU (Won SB)
- 2004 – 13-3 SU (Lost SB)
+ Historically, the Eagles have excelled in the playoffs as underdogs and really struggled as favorites.
- Favorites: 4-7 ATS last 20 years (10-11 SU, 8-13 ATS in the Super Bowl era)
- Underdogs: 8-2 ATS last 20 years (15-7 ATS in the Super Bowl era)
- Since 2000, Eagles are 11-3 against the spread as underdogs in the playoffs.
Player Props
+ Jalen Hurts needs one rushing TD to break Cam Newton’s single-season record (including playoffs). Hurts has scored in six of his last eight games.
- Will Hurts throw an interception? The last 5 QBs to face the 49ers have thrown a pick, seven of the last eight and nine of the last 11 for the 49ers defense.
+ Dallas Goedert has been very consistent. He has five or more receptions and 50+ receiving yards in three straight playoff games, one game shy of the Eagles TE playoff record set by Zach Ertz.
- Looking for a parlay piece? Devonta Smith has 50+ receiving yards in nine consecutive games, only Ja'Marr Chase has a longer active streak among players still in the playoffs.
| Joe Burrow, CIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
13-5 ATS 14-4 SU | 32-16 ATS 29-18-1 SU | 5-1 ATS 5-1 SU |
| Patrick Mahomes, KC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
6-12 ATS 15-3 SU | 47-43-2 ATS 73-19 SU | 7-5 ATS 9-3 SU |
Quarterback
+ Joe Burrow is 3-0 SU/ATS vs. Patrick Mahomes
- Burrow is only 3-0 SU vs. two QBs: Mahomes & Tannehill (he’s also 3-0 ATS vs. Tannehill)
+ Burrow career: 29-18-1 SU, 32-16 ATS (+$1,341). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020. He is 20-5 ATS in his last 25 starts.
- Burrow is 9-7 ATS vs. AFC North and 23-9 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents
- Burrow is 15-2 SU and 16-1 ATS in his last 17 games vs. non-divisional opponents
- Burrow has opened up a pick’em or an underdog and subsequently closed as a favorite seven times in his pro career, Cincinnati went 4-3 SU/ATS.
+ Burrow is 16-7 SU, 17-6 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the seventh-most profitable QB ATS vs. teams above .500 SU of 252 QBs.
- Burrow is 15-2 SU in his last 17 games vs. above .500 SU opponents
- Burrow at LSU was 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents
- NFL and LSU combined: 31-10 SU, 30-11 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents
+ In Burrow’s career, he is 33-14-1 (70.2%) against the second half spread, including 14-4 this season and 29-8-1 (78.4%) over the last two seasons.
+ Burrow prefers the road to home when it comes to covering the number.
- Road/Neutral: 19-7 ATS
- Home: 13-9 ATS
+ Total playoff wins in Bengals franchise history — Before Burrow, the Bengals were 5-14 SU in the playoffs, with Burrow they are 5-1 SU.
Prior to drafting Joe Burrow, the Bengals had won 5 total playoff games in franchise history.
Burrow has now won 5 playoff games in 2 years 🐅 pic.twitter.com/LaGW1yCI6f
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 24, 2023
Cincinnati Dogs?
+ Bengals have covered nine straight games as underdogs, longest active streak in the NFL
+ Burrow as an underdog in his career
- 10-12-1 SU, 16-7 ATS. Burrow has covered eight straight games as an underdog.
- Burrow is 20-3 (87%) in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog
- Since the start of last season, Burrow is 14-0 in a 6-pt teaser when listed as an underdog
- If the Chiefs get as high as -3: As an underdog of 3 or more pts, Burrow is 14-2 ATS in the NFL and was 5-1 ATS in college (19-3 ATS overall)
- At LSU, Burrow was 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS as an underdog (5-1 in pt teaser)
+ Bengals opened +3 and if they close as a smaller underdog: NFL Playoff teams that become smaller underdogs (+4 to +3) have gone 44-19-2 (70%) ATS over the last 20 years, including 53-12 (82%) in 6-pt teasers.
In the Conference Championship and Super Bowl, these teams are 10-6 SU and 12-4 ATS, covering the spread by 4.1 PPG.
+ The Bengals (10-game win streak) and 49ers (12-game win streak) are both underdogs this week. Only five teams since the merger (1970) have been playoff underdogs while on a 10+ game win streak:
- 2015 Chiefs (+6) at NE – NE 27-20
- 2004 Steelers (+2.5) vs NE – NE 41-27
- 1998 Falcons (+7.5) vs DEN – DEN 34-19
- 1998 Falcons (+11) at MIN – ATL 30-27
- 1976 Raiders (+4) vs PIT – OAK 24-7
Game Trends
+ Bengals and Chiefs met earlier this season. Bengals won 27-24 at home as 2.5-pt underdogs.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Travis Kelce led Kansas City in targets with six. Pacheco 14-6 vs. McKinnon in rush att. Pacheco scored on ground, McKinnon through air.
- Chase: eight targets; Perine: seven targets; Boyd & Higgins: five targets. Mixon didn’t play. Burrow threw two touchdown passes to Higgins and Chris Evans. Perine 21 rush, 106 yds.
+ Bengals are 15-3 in a 6-pt teaser this season, tied for the fourth-best record in the NFL and T-best record in the playoffs with the Eagles (also 15-3).
+ Bengals are 19-1 SU in their last 20 games when leading after the first quarter.
+ The temperature for the CIN-KC game is projected to be around 20 degrees and freezing in Kansas City.
Burrow has excelled in colder temperatures
- 50 degrees or less: 13-3 SU/ATS (won 12 straight SU)
- Last 20 years best ATS 50/sub: Brady, Rodgers, Burrow
- 40 degrees or less: 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS
- Last 20 years, no other QB has more than two wins without a loss SU in 40/sub temperatures
Bengals Notes
+ Bengals are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons, including the playoffs (27-12 ATS).
Bengals are 14-4 SU and 13-5 ATS this season after starting 0-2 SU/ATS
Most ATS Wins – Week 3 Forward
- 2016 Patriots – 14-3
- 2007 Giants – 14-4
- 2022 Bengals – 13-3
- 2021 Bengals – 13-6
- 2015 Vikings – 13-2
- 2007 Chargers – 13-4
- 2003 Patriots – 13-3-1
- (2004 Chargers 12-1-2)
+ Bengals have won 10 consecutive games SU.
- Cincinnati’s previous longest streak was 8 straight in 2015
- Last team in the Conference Championship game on a 10+ game SU win streak? 2007-08 Patriots in AFC Championship vs. Chargers.
+ Bengals offensive line ranked 31st in adjusted sack rate last season via Football Outsiders (55 sacks; 3rd-most). This season, they were 15th, middle of the pack (allowed 44 sacks).
- 2023 playoff dropbacks: 70.5% clean, 29.5% pressured
- 2022 playoffs dropbacks: 62.3% clean, 37.7% pressured
+ Bengals and Chiefs are a rematch of last years AFC Championship game. In the Super Bowl era, this will be the seventh time two franchises will meet in at least two straight years in the Conference Championship and first time since 2011–12 Patriots/Ravens.
- The team who won the first meeting is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in the second meeting. Ravens beat the Patriots in 2012 to break the 5-0 SU streak looking for revenge.
- The four times the team in the first meeting won as the underdog, they closed as the favorite in the second meeting and won outright.
Player Props
- The last five QBs to face the Chiefs all went under their passing yards prop, including eight of the last nine QBs going under the prop vs. Kansas City (data via Props.Cash).
- On the other side, the last four QBs to face the Chiefs went over their passing attempts prop, including 12 of the last 16 QBs to face Kansas City.
- Joe Mixon has faced the Chiefs twice (inactive one of the games). He has yet to score vs. Kansas City.
- Ja'Marr Chase in three games with Joe Burrow vs. Chiefs
24 receptions, 417 receiving yards, four TDs, 20+ yd reception in all three games
Chase has 5+ receptions in 10 consecutive games, tied for the longest Bengals streak since the merger (T.J. Houshmandzadeh with 10 in 2005).
- Samaje Perine receptions by game vs. Chiefs: one in first game, three in second game, six in third game
Quarterback
+ Patrick Mahomes: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS in the playoffs; only loss SU to Brady & Burrow.
- 8-2 SU and 6-4 ATS at home in the playoffs
- 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in Divisional and Wild Card round.
- 3-3 SU/ATS in AFC Championship and Super Bowl
+ This would be Mahomes’ second home game of his career as an underdog (48 starts). He was +2.5 vs. Bills earlier this season and lost and failed to cover, 24-20.
- He’s only closed below a 3-pt favorite at home in the playoffs once. He was -2.5 vs. Bills in last year’s playoffs and won, 42-36.
- As an underdog or a favorite of -3 or less at home, Mahomes is 4-3 SU/ATS.
- Mahomes has closed as an underdog nine times in his career. He is 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS.
- Mahomes is 0-3 SU/ATS vs. Joe Burrow.
- Mahomes’ most SU losses without a win vs. any QB (not even 0-2 SU vs. any QB).
- Mahomes is only 0-3 ATS vs. one other QB aside from Burrow – Russ Wilson
- Mahomes SU avg. pt differential: -3 vs. Burrow | +8.5 vs. all other QBs
+ Mahomes: 20-3 SU at home in December or later in his career (only losses? Burrow, Brady, Rivers)
+ Mahomes’ 17th start in January or later. He’s been favored in all 17 starts: 12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS.
+ Mahomes performs better ATS away from home
- Home: 22-25-1 ATS
- Road/Neutral: 25-18-1 ATS
+ Mahomes career against the spread:
- As favorite of 3.5 or more: 30-37-1 ATS
- As favorite of 3 or less (or underdog): 17-6-1 ATS
+ Mahomes by rest in playoffs
- 8 days or less:4-2 SU/ATS
- More than 8 days: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS
+ Mahomes is just 3-11 ATS this season after a SU win and 17-26 ATS after a win since 2020.
On 7 days rest or less, Mahomes is 13-18 ATS after a SU win since 2020.
+ Mahomes is 7-9-2 against the second-half spread this season, his least profitable year 2H ATS of his pro career.
- Mahomes is 8-3-1 2H ATS in the playoffs.
- Mahomes has been tied or trailed at the half twice in the AFC playoffs, he’s won and covered both second halves.
+ The temperature for the CIN-KC game is projected to be around 20 degrees and freezing in Kansas City.
- Mahomes has played 27 games in 40-degree temperatures or colder, he is 23-4 SU and 16-10-1 ATS
- Mahomes is 9-1 SU in freezing temperatures. His only loss was 2019 playoffs vs. Patriots
+ Patrick Mahomes is expected to win the NFL MVP this season after receiving 49 of the 50 possible first-place votes for the AP All-Pro team. How has the MVP historically fared in the playoffs?
- Won Super Bowl: 10 (last? Kurt Warner in 1999)
- Lost Super Bowl: 15
- Conference Champ: 9
- Divisional Round: 13
- Wild Card: 3
- Lost first playoff game: 16.
Game Trends & Andy Reid
+ Games at night (6 p.m. ET or later) are 39-21 to the under so far this season
- Unders at night were 3-2 in Wild Card & Divisional rounds
- Under is 18-3 in last 21 night games
- Under is 19-4 in night games since Dec. 1
Mahomes Opens Favorite, Closes Underdog
- This would be the first time in Mahomes’ career he opens as a favorite and closes as an underdog.
- Nine playoff games in the last 20 years saw one team open as a favorite and close as an underdog – the team who opened as the favorite and closed as the underdog went 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS, including 5-1 SU/ATS since 2010 (only loss? Seahawks in SB vs. Patriots).
+ How do home underdogs perform in the Conference Championship game?
- Chiefs would be the 10th home underdog in the Conference title game in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Those home teams are 4-5 SU and ATS.
- Chiefs would be just the second home team in the Conference Championship since 1990 to open as a favorite and close as an underdog: 1998 49ers were between -1 and pick’em early in the week and closed between +1.5 and +2.5 against the Packers. In Divisional Round, 49ers won by 16 on Saturday, then Packers won by 14 on Sunday. Packers ended up winning 23-10 vs. 49ers.
+ Andy Reid playoff career: 20-16 SU, 19-17 ATS (27-8-1 in a 6-pt teaser)
- Favorite: 17-10 SU, 13-14 ATS
- Underdog: 3-6 SU, 6-3 ATS
+ Reid in Conference Championship games
- 2022 KC -7 vs. Bengals, L 27-24
- 2021 KC -3 vs. Bills, W 38-24
- 2020 KC -7.5 vs. Titans, W 35-24
- 2019 KC -3 vs. Patriots, L 37-31
- 2009 PHI -3.5 at Cardinals, L 32-25
- 2005 PHI -6 vs. Falcons, W 27-10
- 2004 PHI -4 vs. Panthers, L 14-3
- 2003 PHI -4 vs. Bucs, L 27-10
- 2002 PHI +11 at Rams, L 29-24
+ Chiefs played at home last week and now are back at Arrowhead. Under Reid & Mahomes they are just 9-6 SU and 5-10 ATS on homestand (less than 10 days rest between games).
+ Under is now 55-38-1 (59.1%) at Arrowhead with Andy Reid in K.C., including 7-2 this season.
- When the total is below 50 at Arrowhead, it's 37-22 (62.7%) to the under
- This will be the 11th game at Arrowhead where Reid has seen the total drop 3+ points. Chiefs are 10-0 SU in those games and the under is 7-3 against the closing number.
+ Bengals (11-7) and Chiefs (10-8) are only two teams left to the under this season.
+ Chiefs are 2-11 ATS in conference games this season, the worst mark in the league. Kansas City is 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games vs. the AFC.
+ Chiefs and Eagles are both averaging 28 PPG or more, facing teams scoring below that threshold. In the last 20 years, the more potent offense is just 7-15 ATS in the Conference Championship or Super Bowl, failing to cover the spread by 4 PPG – Including 4-13 ATS when listed as favorites.
+ Chiefs defense has allowed 20 pts or less in back-to-back games. When the Chiefs' defense gets hot, it's hard to beat Mahomes & Co., who are 16-2 SU after allowing 20 pts or less in consecutive games, winning nine in a row dating back to 2020.
+ Chiefs are 7-2 to the under at home this season and 6-3 to the over on the road.
Chiefs Notes
+ Chiefs were favorites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs this year.
Chiefs were favorites entering the playoffs in 2020 and lost in the Super Bowl vs. Bucs.
Favorite entering playoffs to win Super Bowl since 2000:
- 2016 Patriots
- 2013 Seahawks
- 2004 Patriots
- 2003 Patriots
How has the favorite entering the playoffs performed since 1974? (1995 only year with true co-favorites entering the playoffs)
- Won SB: 18
- Lost SB: 10
- Conf Champ: 10
- Divisional: 11
In the Wild Card era (since 1990), here are how Super Bowl favorites entering the playoffs have performed:
- Won SB: 10
- Lost SB: 7
- Conf Champ: 7
- Divisional: 9
Highest odds to win Super Bowl – Super Bowl Favorite Entering Playoffs Last 40 Years
- +450 – 2015 Patriots (L, Conf Champ)
- +400 – 2002 Eagles (L, Conf Champ)
- +400 – 1982 Raiders (L, Divisional)
- +375 – 2021 Packers (L, Divisional)
- +350 – 2022 Chiefs
+ The Chiefs trailed the Bengals 14-10 at the half in Week 13 and lost. In Week 15, they trailed the Texans 14-13 at half and won.
Kansas City has won six of their last seven games in which they trailed at halftime. The six straight wins was the longest streak by any NFL team (reg & post) since the 49ers won seven straight from 1989-90.
+ Chiefs are favored in their 15th straight playoff game, the longest streak in the Super Bowl era.
- Second-longest streak was 49ers with 12 in the 1980’s and 90’s
- Their last playoff game as an underdog? 2016 Divisional at Patriots. Alex Smith vs. Tom Brady. Patriots won 27-20.
+ After the Patriots finished 8-9 SU this season, their streak of 19 consecutive years over .500 SU comes to an end. The current active streak? Kansas City with 10, the 9th franchise and 10th team ever to accomplish that feat in the NFL.
At the moment, the Chiefs only have one title in the 10 years, which would be tied with Giants (1954-63) and Browns (1957-69) with the fewest titles for teams to have at least a 10+ year streak of winning seasons.
+ The Chiefs advanced to their fifth consecutive Conference Championship game, tied for the second-longest streak in NFL history. They are the first team ever to be favored in five consecutive Conference Championship games.
- 2022 KC -7 vs. Bengals, L 27-24
- 2021 KC -3 vs. Bills, W 38-24
- 2020 KC -7.5 vs. Titans, W 35-24
- 2019 KC -3 vs. Patriots, L 37-31
+ Most Consecutive Conference Championship Appearances
- 2011-18 Patriots: 8 (5 titles)
- 2018-22 Chiefs: 5 (1 title)
- 1973-77 Raiders: 5 (1 title)
- 2001-04 Eagles: 4 (0 titles)
- 1992-95 Cowboys: 4 (3 titles)
- 1990-93 Bills: 4 (0 titles)
- 1970-73 Cowboys: 4 (1 title)
Player Props
+ Travis Kelce is tied with Rob Gronkowski with 1,389 playoff receiving yards, tied for the most ever for a TE in playoff history.
- Gronk 1389
- Kelce 1389
+ Kelce has 95+ rec yds in seven consecutive playoff games.
- Longest playoff streak of 95+ rec in playoff history (prev. record was four)
- His 68 catches are the most in any seven-game span in playoff history (seven more than Julian Edelman had). Kelce already owns the eight-game span playoff record, too (74 rec).
+ Kelce has four straight playoff games with TD reception – second-longest streak all-time behind Rob Gronkowski (six games)
+ Jerick McKinnon didn’t score a TD vs. the Jaguars last week. He’s scored a Rec. TD in six of his last seven games and nine on the season
Most Rec TD Single Season by RB Last 30 Years (Incl. playoffs)
- 9 – Jerick McKinnon (2022)
- 9 – Marshall Faulk (2000 & 2001)
+ The favorite to win the MVP, per Caesars Sportsbook, will make an extra $1.25 million if he wins the award and another $1.25 million if the Chiefs win the AFC championship and he plays in 50% or more of the snaps in the AFC title game or 50% of the snaps in the regular season.
+ Smith-Schuster can also earn $1 million if K.C. wins the AFC title game, based on various incentives, and another $1 million if the Chiefs win the Super Bowl and his incentives are met.
+ Frank Clark will get another $500,000 if gets 60% of the snaps and the Chiefs win the AFC — and he plays 50% of the snaps in the AFC title game. If Kansas City wins the Super Bowl and he plays half the snaps in that game — along with the 60% regular-season metric — he'll make another $1 million
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Conference Championship Projections | ||
|---|---|---|
 | Moneyline | Edge |
| No Edges Yet This Week… | TBD | TBD |
Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Player: Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
Prop: Over 11.5 Rush Attempts
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
Referee Trends: Two games left, which means two head officials to hone in on for the Conference Championship.
REFEREE: Ron Torbert
- Over the last three seasons, Torbert is 33-16-1 (67.3%) to the under in his games, including 9-7 this season. In that span a $100 would be up $1,503 betting the under in Torbert games.
- Torbert has refereed one Chiefs and one Bengals playoff game
- KC: Chiefs 30-0 win at Texans
- CIN: Bengals 23-20 SB loss vs. Rams
- Torbert has refereed two Chiefs games with Mahomes (KC 2-0 SU/ATS) and two Bengals games with Burrow (1-1 SU/ATS).
- Torbert historically leans very heavy to favorites, who are 110-34 SU (76.4%) in his games, winning by 7.6 PPG. A $100 bettor would be up $1,503 betting favorites on the moneyline with Torbert, the best of any referee. Favorites in December or later? 43-9 SU with Torbert.
REFEREE: John Hussey
- Hussey refereed the 49ers-Packers playoff game in 2020. 49ers 37-20 win.
- Six playoff games: three to under, three to over (last three to the over)
- Overall, he’s 72-57-1 (55.8%) to the under (10-6 this season). Since 2015, he’s the second-most profitable referee to the under behind just Bill Vinovich, who refereed 49ers-Cowboys last week (and went under the total). A $100 bettor would be up $1,138 betting unders with Hussey.
- Hussey is also 71-54-5 (57%) to the second half under, the third-most profitable official to the under in that spot.
- In four Eagles home games with Hussey, an average of 36.3 PPG have been scored combined by both teams (43, 30, 41, 31)
- Hussey has refereed six Eagles games and Philadelphia is 6-0 SU and ATS, covering the spread by 10.8 PPG. To be fair, he’s also 4-1 SU/ATS in 49er games, winning and covering four in a row.
Super Bowl Movers: Entering the playoffs, here are the biggest movers in the Super Bowl futures at BetMGM…
SB: +260 (Current Favorites. First time all season.)
SB: +300 (Longest odds of any team left in the field.)
Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
First TD Game Log and Data: Every single first TD for the four remaining teams left in the playoffs + a lot more listed below.
Favorites in all other rounds are just 78-102-4 ATS. + Playoff underdogs are 42-27 ATS (61%) since 2017. | ||
+ Wild Card: 27-16 SU, 20-23 ATS + Divisional Round: 33-13 SU, 21-24-1 ATS + Conference Championship:13-6 SU, 9-10 ATS | ||
+ No. 1 seeds that are favorites of six or fewer points in a Conference Championship Game are 9-5 against the spread (ATS) since 2003, but four of those five underdogs that covered also won outright. | ||
+ Outside: 96-75-4 to the under | ||
60-1: 2001-02 Patriots 50-1: 1981-82 49ers 40-1: 2017-18 Eagles 35-1: 1982-83 Washington 30-1: 2007-08 Giants | ||
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
First and Anytime
Touchdown Insights
Most First Team TDs This Season – Remaining Playoff Teams
- Travis Kelce – 7
- Jalen Hurts – 6
- Brandon Aiyuk, Jerick McKinnon – 5
- Joe Mixon – 4
- Tyler Boyd, Tee Higgins, Samaje Perine, Miles Sanders, Ja’Marr Chase, Christian McCaffrey – 3
Most First Quarter TDs This Season – Players From Remaining Playoff Teams
- Travis Kelce – 5
- Joe Mixon – 5
- Miles Sanders, Jalen Hurts – 3
- The Favorites Podcast: If you looked at the remaining odds to win the Super Bowl, the NFL's final four teams are nearly a dead heat. With current lines under a field goal and totals under 47, the AFC and NFC title game matchups are nearly mirror images of one another, despite drastically different quarterback situations.
- Action Network Podcast: The AFC and NFC Championship games are set after an intense Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. Action Network experts Brandon Anderson and Gilles Gallant join host Brendan Glasheen to break down what they saw over the weekend. They also give their first impressions of the matchups to come, as the Cincinnati Bengals head to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers travel to Philadelphia to meet up with the Eagles for Conference Championships.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of 10 different options across eight different sports.
What's Next?
- Favorites are 36-20 straight up and 27-27-2 against the spread in the Super Bowl.
- Rams won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread last year, the first time that has happened in the Super Bowl since 2009.
- The under has cashed in four straight Super Bowls for the first time since 2006-09. It hasn't gone under in five straight since the late 1970's.
- Carl Cheffers will be the lead official for Super Bowl LVII. The under is 11-1 in his twelve playoff games via the Bet Labs database.
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) January 24, 2023
