NFL Conference Championship Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Conference Championship weekend has arrived! For the Lions, they haven't won a road playoff game since 1957, while the Chiefs are here for the sixth straight season and Baltimore is hosting a title game for the first time in franchise history.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Conference Championship version of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Jan. 28, 3:00 p.m. ET. 

Top Dog

Here We Go, Again

“Patrick Mahomes: The Underdog” has a nice ring to it. Mahomes has been a 'dog for two weeks in a row now.

The last time Mahomes was an underdog in consecutive starts was his rookie season in 2018 when he was a dog in back-to-back road starts – only time in his career (his second and third career start) – he won both games. He started his career being listed as an underdog in three straight starts. Prior to last week he was favored in 101 of 108 total starts.

• Patrick Mahomes is 8-3 straight up in his career as an underdog, the best record of any QB in the Super Bowl era with a minimum of 10 starts.

The Chiefs opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game.

It's just the sixth time Mahomes has opened at +3 or higher — and first time since 2020 vs. BAL — he is 5-0 ATS in those games

• In Mahomes’ 11 games as an underdog, he is 11-0 in a 6-point teaser.

Top Billing

Team To Beat

The San Francisco 49ers were favored in all 17 regular season games and they were favorites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs.

They are the 10th team to accomplish both in the same season since 1980 — the Niners have done it five times, and the rest of the NFL also has done it five times.

Seven of the previous nine teams made the Super Bowl, including five straight teams in the last 30 years. Four won it all: 1995 Cowboys, 1994 49ers, 1991 Washington, 1984 49ers.

Upset Brewing?

Leaving The Den

The Lions are 7-point underdogs in San Francisco. Here is where an upset would land in history and what would be on the line in Las Vegas.

Biggest Upsets Conference Championship Since 2000
2002 Patriots +10 at Steelers, W 24-17
2013 Ravens +8 at Patriots, W 28-13
2008 Giants +7.5 at Packers, W 23-20
2022 Bengals +7 at Chiefs, W 27-24
2000 Titans +7 at Jaguars, W 33-14

Highest Preseason Odds to Win Super Bowl — Last 20 Years
40-1: 2017 Eagles
30-1: 2007 Giants
(22-1: 2023 Lions)
22-1: 2011 Giants

Now We're Here

Final Four

Lions have been an ATS cash cow.

• 13-6 ATS this season
• 25-11 ATS since the start of last season
• 36-17 ATS over the last three seasons

This is the best 3-year stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS.

Lions have 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons. Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995. Lions are the first team since 2016-17 Patriots to make Conference Championship after winning the ATS crown (made Super Bowl both years).

Lions Super Bowl odds entering season last three years
2024: 14-1
2023: 22-1
2022: 125-1
2021: 250-1

Charm City

At The Bank

Ravens are playing their 4th consecutive home game this weekend against the Chiefs. They haven’t played on the road since Christmas Day in San Francisco.

Ravens will be the 9th team to play their fourth consecutive home game entering a Conference Championship in the last 20 years, the previous seven went 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS). The only loss? 2019 Saints vs. Rams.

Deebo Matters

Impact Man

49ers are 12-1 SU, 10-3 ATS when Deebo Samuel starts and finishes the game. They are 1-4 SU, 0-5 ATS when he doesn’t

Samuel leads the Niners in targets and receptions when they are leading this season and he’s first in yards per rush attempt for them when leading too (min five rushes).

• 49ers record when Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t is illuminating.

49ers Record When Samuel Gets at Least One Target:
With: 44-13 SU
Without: 9-10 SU

Wagon Effect

It Was Me…

Teams the week after facing the Bills are 24-41-1 ATS (36.9%) over the past four seasons, including 5-11-1 ATS this season. Bills are the second-worst previous opponent ATS in that span ahead of just the Raiders.

Over the last three seasons, teams are 3-14 ATS (18%) the game after beating the Bills, failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG

• Teams to beat Josh Allen in the playoffs are 0-4 SU in their next game. 2022 CIN, 2021 KC, 2020 KC, 2019 HOU.

Dan The Man

1 of 1

• Dan Campbell is 40-25 ATS (61.5%) in his career. Of the 164 NFL coaches who have at least 20 games of experience under their belt since 1990, Dan Campbell has the second-best ATS win percentage (Brian Daboll is first at 22-13-1 ATS, 62.9%).

The best ATS win percentage for any head coach since merger (in a three-plus season span).

​​+ Lions are 36-17 against the spread under Dan Campbell. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL since he became head coach.

Shake It Off

Green Bay Comeback

Kyle Shanahan is 5-0 SU as a favorite and 5-0 SU at home in the playoffs.

He is the only coach 5-0 SU or better as a favorite and at home in the playoffs since 2000.

Now the other side.

• 49ers are 12-34 SU, 12-34 ATS when trailing at the half under Kyle Shanahan.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 1-33 SU when trailing by more than 10 points in the second half. The only win came in Week 18 of 2021 season when they trailed Rams 17-3 and won 27-24 in OT.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS when trailing entering the 4th quarter — including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 0-39 when trailing by 8 points or more points in the fourth quarter.

Indoor Cat

Dome Friendly

Much has been made of Jared Goff indoors vs. outdoors.

• Indoor: 36-17 ATS (26-9 ATS past three seasons)
  This season: 14 games, 28 pass TD, 8 INT, 71% comp. %, 1.4 sacks/game
• Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
  This season: 5 games, 5 pass TD, 4 INT, 63.6% comp. %, 3 sacks/game

Not too shabby…

• 49ers sack the opposing QB at a rate of 4.2% this season (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense).

When Goff faces teams at a rate of 4% or higher, he is 28-16-1 ATS career, including 15-4 ATS as a Lion and 7-1 ATS this season.

Not Human

Road Warrior

Another grim reaper stat.

• In the past 20 years of the playoffs in the Divisional Round or later, teams playing a second consecutive road game (or more) on 7 days rest or less, are just 13-41 SU (24%). When those teams win by fewer than 10 points in their previous game, 6-23 SU (20.7%).
• This will be Mahomes’ 15th game on a road trip (two or more road games). He is 12-2 SU and 7-7 ATS. He was listed as an underdog in three of those games, going 3-0 SU.

AFC Champ.

NFC Champ.

CC History

Markets

Weather

Referees

Trends & Systems

Stat Leaders

Player Stats

TD Zone

Futures

Trivia

Game-By-Game Breakdown

Chiefs at Ravens | Sunday, Jan. 28

3:00pm ET | CBS

BAL -4.5 | 44

Chiefs

Team

• Team status: 13-6 SU, 11-7-1 ATS.

6-13 team total over
Under win total of 11.5. KC was 1 of 3 teams with double-digit win total to be under their win total (CIN, PHI).
Chiefs are now 9-2 to their win total over in the last 11 years.
Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-2 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-6-1 overall to over)
+ Chiefs have now won the AFC West eight consecutive seasons – longest active division streak across four major sports.
The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.
+ The Chiefs have advanced to their sixth consecutive conference championship game.
Most Consecutive Conference Championship Appearances
2011-18 Patriots: 8 (5 titles)
2018-22 Chiefs: 6 (2 title)
1973-77 Raiders: 5 (1 title)
2001-04 Eagles: 4 (0 titles)
1992-95 Cowboys: 4 (3 titles)
1990-93 Bills: 4 (0 titles)
1970-73 Cowboys: 4 (1 title)
+ Chiefs are 15-5-1 ATS as underdogs since 2016, third-best in NFL behind Steelers and Ravens.
+ Chiefs opened as 3.5-point underdogs against the Ravens in the AFC Championship game. It's just the sixth time Mahomes has opened at +3 or higher — and first time since 2020 vs. BAL — he is 5-0 ATS in those games
+ When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat.
KC is 54-7 SU (89%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 19-0 SU in the last two seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.
+ Kansas City has been impressive defensively this season, but most of that success has come against the pass. Against the run, the Chiefs ranked 28th in EPA per play allowed and 15th in rushing success rate allowed. They also rank 18th in Pro Football Focus' run defense grade and 14th in tackling.
Unfortunately for Kansas City, Baltimore has one of the best run games in the league. Baltimore ranks third in both EPA per rush and rushing success rate, as well as fifth in Pro Football Focus' rushing grade.
+ Chiefs were the seventh preseason Super Bowl odds favorite to lose outright in Week 1 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the first to do since the Patriots in 2017. Six of seven still made playoffs (2002 Rams), two have made the Super Bowl (2017 NE, 1993 DAL) and one won it all (1993 DAL).
+ The Chiefs entered the regular season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +650.
In the Wild Card era (since 1990), the preseason Super Bowl favorite has won title five times (18, 16 NE, 06 IND, 94 SF, 93 DAL).
Eleven times they lost in the Super Bowl, two lost in the Conference championship, seven lost in the Divisional round, five lost in the Wild Card and three missed the playoffs.
+ Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play) – regular season + playoffs
2023: 5th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 24th | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 27th
+ Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
Second half unders are 17-2 in KC games this year
Fourth quarter unders are 18-1 in KC games this year
+ When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 points this season, KC is 1-4 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles, Packers and picked up their first win over the Bills. KC is 12-2 SU, 10-3-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 points or less.
+ Chiefs are 9-10 against the fourth quarter spread this season and 23-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
+ Between 2020-2022, Chiefs went 14-6 SU when trailing at the half. This year, the Chiefs are 2-4 SU when trailing at the half.
+ The Chiefs enter the Conference Championship game with a negative turnover differential average this season. When those teams are listed as underdogs in CC or Super Bowl, they are 8-28 SU (22%) last 20 years, including 0-7 SU since 2014.
+ Teams after facing the Bills are 24-41-1 ATS (36.9%) over the last four seasons, including 5-11-1 ATS this season. Bills are the second-worst previous opponent ATS in that span ahead of just the Raiders.
Over the last three seasons, teams are 3-14 ATS (18%) the game after beating the Bills, failing to cover the spread by 6.2 PPG
+ Teams to beat Josh Allen in the playoffs are 0-4 SU in their next game. 2022 CIN, 2021 KC, 2020 KC, 2019 HOU.
+ Chiefs defense was on the field for 78 plays against the Bills, with Buffalo having over 37 minutes of TOP.
When a teams defense faces 78 plays or more they are 30-42 SU (41.7%) and 29-40-3 ATS (42%) last three seasons.
+ Chiefs offense only ran 47 plays vs. Bills – their fewest in a game since 2021.
+ Chiefs had just five third down attempts, tied with the 2010 Cardinals (who scored 51 vs. Green Bay) for the fewest third down attempts in a playoff game since at least 1999.
Chiefs are just the 7th team regular or postseason to have five third downs or fewer in a game since 2001 – those teams went 4-2 SU/ATS following week, with the over 6-0.

Patrick Mahomes

• Most Consecutive Seasons Reaching Conf Champ
  8 – Tom Brady (Patriots, 2011-18)
  6 – Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs, 2018-23)
  5 – Ken Stabler (1973-77)
• Mahomes road playoff game: Faced Buccaneers in Tampa Bay during the Super Bowl and lost 31-9.
  +2.5 vs BUF, won 27-24
  +3.5 vs BAL
  Mahomes is 9-1-1 ATS as a dog, 8-3 SU in the regular season and playoffs
• Chiefs have 22 SU playoff wins all-time and 13 of those 22 have come from Mahomes (59%). K.C. has four SU playoff wins since the merger between 1970-2017 (pre-Mahomes).
  With a win Sunday, Mahomes would have four Super Bowl appearances.
• In the last 20 years, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 59-24-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a dog before winning the ring. 34-16-2 ATS (68%) after the ring — including 12-4 ATS since 2018 playoffs.
• Mahomes is 8-3 SU in his career as an underdog, the best record of any QB in the Super Bowl era with a minimum of 10 starts.
• Mahomes has only opened +3.5 or higher twice before this week
  2018 regular season in NE: +3.5 to +4 .. L 43-40
  2018, third career start in PIT: +5 to +4.5 .. W 42-37
• Here we go again.
  Mahomes is an underdog in back-to-back weeks. There is also a chance he closes without the public on his side, again (percentage of tickets on the spread).
  Mahomes is 3-1 SU/ATS as a dog, without public support in his career. The one loss was at home vs. Bills in 2022.
• Mahomes has 38 pass TD, 7 INT and 4,561 pass yds in his 16-game playoff career.
  Only three QBs have ever put up 38 TDs and 7 or fewer INT and 4,500 pass yards in any regular season: Mahomes 2020, Matt Ryan 2016, Rodgers 2011.
• Mahomes is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS vs. defenses allowing fewer than 17 PPG in his career. Both losses have come against the Bills.
  In January and February, Mahomes has faced seven defenses allowing fewer than 20 PPG, he is 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS
• In Mahomes’ 11 games as an underdog, he is 11-0 in a 6-point teaser.
  Mahomes has started 25 games either as a dog or favored by 2.5 or less, he is 16-6-1 ATS and 20-3-2 (87%) in a 6-pt teaser
• Mahomes vs BAL, 12 TD, 2 INT .. 7 TD, 1 INT in Baltimore
  71.8% completion %, 370 pass yds/game, 9.1 yards/attempt
• Mahomes' four games vs. the Ravens:
  2018: 377 passing yards, 2 TDs
  2019: 374 passing yards, 3 TDs
  2020: 385 passing yards, 5 TDs
  2021: 343 passing yards, 3 TDs
• Mahomes in Conference Championship: 3-2 SU/ATS
• In the last 20 years, Mahomes is the third QB to be undefeated SU in the Divisional and Wild Card rounds (min. four starts)
  Patrick Mahomes: 8-0 SU
  Mark Sanchez: 4-0 SU
  Joe Burrow: 4-0 SU
  Colin Kaepernick: 3-0 SU
  Jimmy Garoppolo: 3-0 SU
  Brock Purdy: 3-0 SU
• Most Conf. Champ. Appearances by QB
  Tom Brady 14
  Roger Staubach, Joe Montana, Steve Young 7
  Patrick Mahomes, John Elway, Terry Bradshaw 6
• Mahomes has won 13 playoff games since 2018. He has more playoff wins than these teams in their franchise history: HOU, ARI, JAC, DET, CAR, CIN, ATL, NO, CLE, LAC, NYJ, TB
• Favored streak with Mahomes as QB. He was underdog in Super Bowl last year. Favored in other 14 starts. Underdog last week vs Buffalo and is an underdog again this week against Ravens.
  In playoffs: 10-2 SU as a favorite in last 12
• Mahomes is 37-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 17-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
  Mahomes O/U in road starts: 33-19 to the over in road starts
• Mahomes is 11-4-1 ATS in the second half in the playoffs.
  Best 2H ATS QBs in playoffs since 2005: Russ, Brady, Mahomes
  As an underdog on the 2H spread, Mahomes is 2-0, out-scoring his opponents 38-18 in the 2H.
  Mahomes has played four playoff games trailing at half. He only lost 2H to TB in the Super Bowl.
• Mahomes has played in 16 playoff games, 31 regular season night games, 1 morning game, 2 early Monday games, two Saturday games – a total of 51 “primetime” games. He is 38-14 SU, 29-22-1 ATS in those games.
• In tight games (spread of 3.5 or less), Mahomes is 16-6 SU road/neutral.
• Mahomes is 14-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side and 45-42-3 ATS when he is listed as the public side.
• Mahomes starts by point spread
  Favorite: 101 (50-49-2 ATS) | Dog: 11 (9-1-1 ATS)
  Home: 28-29-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 31-21-2 ATS
  1p ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1p slate: 44-33-1 ATS
  -10 or higher: 27 (11-14-2 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 85 (48-36-1 ATS)
  -3 or less/or dog: 30 (21-8-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 82 (38-42-2 ATS)
• Mahomes regular season
  SU, ATS: 74-22 SU, 48-45-3 ATS
  Home/Road: 35-11 SU, 20-25-1 at home, 39-11 SU, 28-20-2 road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 68-19 SU, 41-44-2 as favorite, 6-3 SU, 7-1-1 ATS as dog
  Mahomes playoffs
  SU, ATS: 13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS
  Home/Road: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS at home. 3-1 SU/ATS neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS as favorite. 2-0 SU/ATS as dog.
• Mahomes has only lost playoff games to Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
• Mahomes is 8-2 SU in the playoffs when trailing by 7+ points at any point. His two losses vs. Tom Brady.
• Mahomes is 39-9 SU in November and December in his career (53-12 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
• Opposing teams on a road trip going to Kansas City are 2-16 SU (11.7%) with Mahomes on the other side. Teams are 23-72 (24%) vs. Mahomes in all other spots.
• Mahomes has had 39 passes dropped during the regular season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, seventh-most in the NFL.
• Mahomes career based on rest (not counting Week 1s)
  6 days or less: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS
  7 days: 44-14 SU, 29-27-2 ATS
  8+ days: 25-7 SU, 16-15-1 ATS
• Mahomes is just 11-16 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB in the NFL
  Mahomes after a SU loss in his career: 19-4 SU, 13-9-1 ATS
• Road/neutral, Mahomes is 42-12 SU, 31-21-2 ATS in his career.
  He’s 30-8 SU as a road/neutral favorite of 3 points or more.
  As a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog road/neutral, he’s 16-3-1 ATS
  As a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, he’s 21-8-1 ATS
• Chiefs winning back-to-back road games under Mahomes.
  This will be Mahomes’ 15th game on a road trip (at least two road games). He is 12-2 SU and 7-7 ATS. He was listed as an underdog in three of those games, going 3-0 SU.
• In the last 20 years of the playoffs in the Divisional Round or later, teams playing a second consecutive road game (or more) on 7 days rest or less, are just 13-41 SU (24%). When those teams win by fewer than 10 points in their previous game, 6-23 SU (20.7%).
• Last time Mahomes an underdog in consecutive starts.
  He started his career being listed as an underdog in three straight starts. Prior to last week he was favored in 101 of 108 total starts.
  2018 he was a dog in back-to-back road starts – only time in his career (his second and third career start) – he won both games.
• Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas, three straight games.
  Mahomes after he throws an INT: 30-19-1 ATS
  After he doesn’t: 25-29-2 ATS
• Patrick Mahomes' last three playoff starts
• 0 INT, 0 sacks, 27 pts, 2 TDs vs. Bills
• 0 INT, 0 sacks, 26 pts, 1 TD vs. Dolphins
• 0 INT, 0 sacks, 38 pts, 3 TDs vs. Eagles
  Mahomes is the first QB since merger w/ 0 INT & 0 sacks in three straight playoff games
• Patrick Mahomes' last three playoff starts
• 0 INT, 0 sacks, 27 pts, 2 TDs vs. Bills
• 0 INT, 0 sacks, 26 pts, 1 TD vs. Dolphins
• 0 INT, 0 sacks, 38 pts, 3 TDs vs. Eagles
  Mahomes is the first QB since merger w/ 0 INT & 0 sacks in three straight playoff games
• Teams after not allowing a sack and not throwing a pick, when listed as an underdog, are 370-306-19 ATS (54.7%) last 20 years – regular season and playoffs.
  When that team is above .500 SU, they are 57-31 ATS (65%) in this spot last 20 years.

Andy Reid

• Andy Reid playoff career: 24-16 SU, 23-17 ATS (31-8-1 in a 6-point teaser)
  Favorite: 19-10 SU, 15-14 ATS
  Underdog: 5-6 SU, 8-3 ATS
• Andy Reid has faced Lamar Jackson four times, most recently in 2021.
  In Lamar Jackson’s 82 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 41 times – he is 35-6 SU (85.4%), 22-19 ATS in those games. When he faces that coach again (2nd time or later), he is 26-16 SU and 24-18 ATS.
• Reid in Conference Championship games
  2023 KC -2 vs. Bengals, W 23-20
  2022 KC -7 vs. Bengals, L 27-24
  2021 KC -3 vs. Bills, W 38-24
  2020 KC -7.5 vs. Titans, W 35-24
  2019 KC -3 vs. Patriots, L 37-31
  2009 PHI -3.5 at Cardinals, L 32-25
  2005 PHI -6 vs. Falcons, W 27-10
  2004 PHI -4 vs. Panthers, L 14-3
  2003 PHI -4 vs. Bucs, L 27-10
  2002 PHI +11 at Rams, L 29-24

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Ravens

Team

• Team status: 14-4 SU, 12-6 ATS.

12-6 score first | 12-6 team total over
Over win total of 10.5. Clinched No. 1 seed and home field through playoffs.
Ravens have the second-best ATS record this season. Lions are first at 13-5.
Best ATS season for Ravens since finishing 12-4 ATS in 2008.
+ Ravens were 18-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. They are 20-1 or shorter to win Super Bowl for fourth straight season – longest streak for BAL since they moved to city in 1996.
+ Ravens' blown leads …
This Season: Blew leads in three of four losses, including two double-digit leads
Since 2022: Six losses with a double-digit lead – T-most in NFL with Bears, Chargers and Raiders.
Since 2021 Season: Eight losses with a double-digit lead – T-most in NFL with Bears. No other team has more than six.
+ Ravens AFC Championship history.
Home: 2023-24 would be first in history
Road: 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS
+ Do the Ravens come with a tax this week?
Teams to be listed as a double-digit favorite in the Divisional Round or Championship round are just 3-6 ATS in their next game over the last 20 years.
+ Ravens have 11 wins this season vs teams with a winning record – Nine of those 11 wins by 14+ points, most in NFL history
Most wins vs. teams with winning record: 2024 BAL 11, 2004 | 2004 NE, 10 | 2003 NE, 10 | 1979 PIT, 10
Previous three teams won the Super Bowl.
+ Ravens are playing their fourth consecutive home game this weekend against the Lions. They haven’t played on the road since Christmas Day in San Francisco.
Ravens will be the ninth team to play their fourth consecutive home game entering a Conference Championship in the last 20 years, the previous seven went 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS). The only loss? 2019 Saints vs. Rams.
+ Ravens are the first team in NFL history to lead the league in takeaways (31), points allowed per game (16.5) and sacks (60).
In their playoff game, Ravens had 0 takeaways, 0 sacks, but they allowed just 10 points, including 3 points on offense.
+ Ravens are 11-4-3 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 20-10-6 1Q ML last two seasons. Their 11 1Q ML wins is T-2nd-most in NFL this year behind Cowboys.
Ravens 1H ATS this season: 14-4, best in the NFL
+ The Ravens currently have a 75%+ win percentage entering their Conference Championship game this week. In the last 20 years, teams with 75%+ win percentage in the playoffs are just 58-86-1 ATS (40.3%) when facing a team with a worse win percentage.
+ Ravens covered the spread by 14.5 points against the Texans last week, winning 34-10.
Teams after a cover by 14 points or more are just 13-23 SU, 14-22 ATS in the playoffs since 2015
+ Last few teams to enter Conference Championship off 20+ pt win: 6-1 SU, 5-0 SU at home since 2009.
23 PHI – W 31-7 H
20 KC – W 35-24 H
18 NE – W 24-20 H
14 NE – L 26-26 A
12 NE – W 23-20 H
11 GB – W 21-14 A
09 ARI – W 32-25 H
+ Teams after playing Texans under DeMeco Ryans.
Overall after facing HOU under DR: 9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS
After beating Texans: 3-4 SU/ATS
+ When Ravens are on extended rest and their opponent is not…
Lamar: 8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS
Harbaugh: 21-8 SU, 14-14-1 ATS
+ Ravens vs. teams entering 3+ game above .500 SU this season
Texans, Div: W, 34-10
Dolphins, WK17: W, 56-19
49ers, WK16: W, 33-19
Jaguars, WK15: W, 23-7
Seahawks, WK9: 37-3
Lions, WK7: 38-6
———————–
Combined: 221-64 (6-0 SU/ATS)
+ Least time spent trailing in the first 10 games of a season, last 40 years:
1984 Dolphins: 14:46 (started 10-0) (L in SB)
1998 Broncos: 27:07 (started 10-0) (W SB)
2023 Ravens: 28:46 (7-3)
1990 Giants: 43:42 (started 10-0) (W SB)
2007 Patriots: 51:03 (started 10-0) (L in SB)
+ Ravens have trailed entering the fourth quarter just once this season against the Rams, breaking their streak of 12 straight games to begin the season. That is tied for the fewest games trailing entering the fourth quarter in a season in the Wild Card era (1990).
2023 Ravens
2010 Packers (W SB)
2004 Patriots (W SB)
1992 Saints (L WC)
1992 Cowboys (W SB)
1991 Saints (L WC)
+ Most Consecutive Games Entering 4Q With Lead To Begin Season
16, 1998 MIN, 15-1 (L CC)
13, 2011 GB, 15-1 (L DIV)
12, 2023 BAL, 8-3
12, 1998 DEN, 14-2 (W SB)
10, 1984 MIA, 14-2 (L SB)
+ C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans became the first rookie QB and 1st-time head coach to win a playoff game since 2009. The previous two opponents to knock out the rookie QB-coach duo made the Super Bowl.

Rookie QBs and 1st-time head coaches to win a playoff game – Since 1950
2023 Texans: C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans – L vs. BAL (?)
(HOU lost next week SU/ATS as 10 pt dogs at BAL)
2009 Jets: Mark Sanchez & Rex Ryan – L vs IND (L SB)
(NYJ won next week as 9pt dogs at SD – lost next game on road SU/ATS vs. IND)
2008 Ravens: Joe Flacco & John Harbaugh – L vs PIT (W SB)
(BAL won next week as 3-pt dogs vs. TEN – lost next game on road SU/ATS vs. PIT)
+ Texans were the seventh team listed at 200-1 or higher in the preseason to make the playoffs since 16+ game schedule in 1978. Of the seven teams to beat these longshots, four made the Super Bowl and two won.

Lamar Jackson

• Lamar Jackson is 29-10 SU and 16-23 ATS as a home favorite. Of 220 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 211th ATS as a home favorite.
  He’s just 12-18 ATS playing a home game at 3p ET or earlier
  He is 10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS in home games outside the 1P ET window.
• Over the past three seasons, Jackson is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog but 15-19 ATS as a favorite, including 7-16 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
• Jackson is 22-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 23-31 ATS career.
  The Ravens are currently -3.5 in the AFC Championship.
• Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 29-10-1 1H ATS and 23-18-1 1H ATS at home.
• Lamar has played 4 games directly after a 20+ point win in the last 3 years. He is 1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS == all 4 favored by 5 pts or more.
• When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 28-4 SU, 16-16 ATS.
  He’s 23-13 SU and 23-13 ATS when facing team above .500 SU
• Lamar Jackson Regular Season
  SU/ATS: 58-19 SU, 43-34 ATS
  Home/Away: 30-9 SU, 18-21 ATS at home. 28-10 SU, 25-13 ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 49-15 SU, 31-33 ATS as favorite. 9-4 SU, 12-1 ATS as dog.
• Lamar Jackson is 2-3 SU/ATS in the playoffs. In 2019 when he was awarded the MVP they lost as 10-point favorites vs. the Titans in their first playoff game.
• Lamar Jackson Playoffs
  2-3 SU/ATS
  Home/Away: 1-2 SU/ATS at home. 1-1 SU/ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 2-2 SU/ATS as a favorite. 0-1 SU/ATS as an underdog.
• Lamar is 16-6 SU (14-8 ATS) in night games. He’s won eight straight night games SU and 10 of his last 11.
  Lamar at night: at home: 8-2 SU, 6-4 ATS | on road: 8-4 SU/ATS
• Lamar has done well vs. good defenses. Ravens are 7-2 SU/ATS with Lamar vs. teams allowing 17 PPG or less on season.
  KC currently is second in the NFL in points allowed per game with 17.1. Baltimore is first at 16.1.
• Lamar Jackson, who was a first-team selection in 2019 when he won the NFL MVP, also got the nod this year after passing for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns and also running for 821 yards and scoring five times on the ground. How has the MVP historically fared in the playoffs?
  Won Super Bowl: 11
  Lost Super Bowl: 15
  Conference Champ: 9
  Divisional Round: 13
  Wild Card: 3
  Lost 1st playoff game: 16
  Last NFL MVP to win a Super Bowl? Patrick Mahomes last year and Kurt Warner in 1999

John Harbaugh

• The duo of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh are now 51-29-2 (63.8%) against the first half spread with the Ravens — best mark since 2005.
• John Harbaugh regular season (career)
  SU/ATS: 160-99 SU, 132-119-8 ATS
  Home/Away: 93-37 SU, 62-66-2 ATS at home. 67-62 SU, 70-53-6 ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 130-49 SU, 86-88-5 ATS as favorite. 30-50 SU, 46-31-3 ATS as dog.
• John Harbaugh playoffs (career)
  12-9 SU, 14-7 ATS
  Home/Away: 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS at home. 9-7 SU, 12-4 ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS as a favorite. 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
• Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and .500 ATS as a favorite.
• Harbaugh, Ravens are 4-0 ATS after a loss this season and 16-8 ATS after a loss since 2020.
• Harbaugh is 160-110-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $4,139, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
  With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 147-103-9 1H ATS.
• John Harbaugh with extra time to prepare:
  10+ days: 27-8 SU, 20-13-2 ATS
  Week 1: 12-4 SU/ATS
  Combined: 39-12 SU, 32-17-2 ATS
• Watch out when Baltimore gets the run game going.
  They ran for 229 yards on 42 carries and 2 TD last week.
  When they run for 200+ under Harbaugh, they are 22-10 SU in their next game, including 18-8 SU with Lamar Jackson.
• Lamar, Harbaugh 1H ATS on extended rest (excluding week 1)
  Lamar: 9-7 ATS
  Harbaugh: 33-21-2 ATS (2nd-best of 135 coaches since 2005 behind just Dan Campbell)
• When Ravens are on extended rest and their opponent is not…
  Lamar: 8-2 SU, 4-6 ATS
  Harbaugh: 21-8 SU, 14-14-1 ATS

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Lions at 49ers | Sunday, Jan. 28

6:30pm ET | FOX

SF -7.5 | 51.5

Lions

Team

• Team status: 14-5 SU, 13-6 ATS

10-0 SU this season when leading after 1st quarter (8-18 SU previous four seasons)
13-6 score first
Over win total of 9.5. Detroit hasn’t won ten games since 2014 and they’ve now gone over their win total in consecutive seasons for first time since 2016-17.
The last time Detroit went over their win total by two-plus games in back-to-back seasons was 1999-00. They did that with a win in week 18.
+ Lions Super Bowl odds entering season last three years
2023: 22-1
2022: 125-1
2021: 250-1
+ Lions starting a streak. Prior to the win over the Rams they had lost nine straight postseason games. Their last win came back in 1992 at home against the Cowboys.
They have now won two straight and are in the NFC Championship for the first time since 1991 and only the second time in the modern era.
+ Lions game after being a big favorite last 20 years.
-4.5 or higher: 14-24-3 ATS
-6 or higher: 8-20-3 ATS
+ Lions on the road in the playoffs: 2-12 SU, 5-9 ATS
Lions have lost nine straight road playoff games. Their last road playoff win came back in 1957 on the road against the 49ers in Kezar Stadium in SF, California. 49ers starting QB that day was Y.A. Tittle.
At home in playoffs: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS
+ The Lions will be the 18th team in the last 20 years to play a playoff game in PST after playing in EST in their previous game.
Those teams are 7-10 SU, 6-10-1 ATS.
will be the fourth team to play in the Conference Championship over the last 20 years traveling from PST to EST: '13 SF won in ATL, '10 NYJ lost in IND, '07 NE lost in IND
+ Lions are 25-11 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,172).
Lions have 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (13-6 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
Lions are 22-7 ATS in their last 29 games overall.
+ Lions are 36-17 ATS (67.9%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,569.
This is the best 3-yr stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252
Lions are 22-7 ATS last 29 games, best in NFL since Nov. 1, 2022
+ Lions were the best ATS team this season at 12-5. First time they won the regular season ATS crown since 2010 (didn’t make playoffs).
Lions are the first team since 2016-17 Patriots to make Conference Championship after winning the ATS crown (made Super Bowl both years).
Teams to win regular season ATS crown + Super Bowl since 2000: 2016 NE, 2013 SEA, 2003 NE
+ Lions O/U this season: 12-7 to over
At home: 7-3 over | On road: 5-4 over
+ Lions defense has been torched the last 5 games…
Vs. TB: Mayfield 26-41, 349, 3-2 (Evans 8-147-1)
Vs. LAR: Stafford 25-36, 367, 2-0 (Puka 9-181-1)
Vs. MIN: Mullens 30-44, 396, 2-2 (JJ 12-192-1)
Vs. DAL: Dak 26-38, 345, 2-1 (Lamb 13-227-1)
Vs. MIN: Mullens 22-36, 411, 2-4 (JJ 6-141-1)
+ Lions defense has allowed 200+ team passing yards in second straight games – T-second-longest active streak in NFL (WAS, DEN). Commanders are at 16 straight games.
+ The Buccaneers were the second team since 1990 to have a bottom-10 total offense and defense and still reach the divisional round. Other was the 2010 Seahawks that lost in the Divisional Round to the Bears. Bears lost in the Conference Championship game.
+ Lions are 36-17 ATS (67.9%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,569.
This is the best 3-year stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252

Jared Goff

• Jared Goff has faced SF nine times – Lost five straight SU .. 3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS career
  Goff has faced Shanahan in San Francisco four times == 16, 31, 39, 41 points (32 PPG)
• Since 2021, Goff is 15-5 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents – second-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow.
• Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
  Indoor: 36-17 ATS (26-9 ATS last three seasons)
  This season: 14 games, 28 pass TD, 8 INT, 71% comp. %, 1.4 sacks/game
  Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
  This season: 5 games, 5 pass TD, 4 INT, 63.6% comp. %, 3 sacks/game
• Lions QB Jared Goff this season:
  In 10 home games: 64.3 QBR, 8.1 yards/attempt, 22 TD, 6 INT
  In 8 road games: 57.8 QBR, 7.1 yards/attempt, 11 TD, 6 INT
• Goff has played 11 games outdoors on the road with Lions
  5-5-1 SU, 6-5 ATS == 5-1 SU/ATS last 6, lost last at BAL 38-6
• Goff is 25-10-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
• Goff will be the fifth QB to take two different franchises to the Conference Championship game this century:
  Tom Brady – Took both Patriots and Bucs to Conference Championship in first playoff appearance
  Peyton Manning – Took Colts to Conference Championship in fourth playoff appearance, took DEN with second appearance
  Brett Favre – Took Packers to Conference Championship in third playoff appearance, first appearance with Vikings
  Kurt Warner – Took Rams and Cardinals to Conference Championship in first appearance with both teams
  Jared Goff – Took Rams to Conference Championship in second appearance, Took Lions in first playoff appearance
• Goff is one of three QBs to lead his team to 14+ wins in a season for multiple franchises
  Goff with Lions, Rams
  Brady with Patriots, Bucs
  Manning with Colts, Broncos
• Goff has two playoff wins for the Lions this season, 25% of the franchises playoff wins all-time.
  If the Lions reach the Super Bowl, Goff will be tied with Bobby Layne for most playoff wins with three
  Last QB with multiple playoff wins for the Lions was Tobin Rote in 1957
• Four QBs in NFL history have started a Super Bowl for two different teams: Craig Morton (Cowboys, Broncos) Kurt Warner (Rams, Cardinals) Peyton Manning (Colts, Broncos) Tom Brady (Patriots, Buccaneers)
  If the Lions beat the 49ers, Jared Goff will add his name to that list.
• Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last five years (52-29-1 ATS, +$1,903).
• Goff began his career 0-7 ATS with the Rams in his first season. He is now 70-45-2 ATS (61%) since, including 52-29-1 ATS (64%) last five years and 34-16 ATS (68%) last three years — both best marks in the NFL.
• Goff vs. teams above .500 SU with Lions: 12-7-1 SU, 15-5 ATS | at home: 8-3 SU/ATS
  Vs. teams below .500 SU: 10-11 SU, 11-10 ATS
• Goff is 23-11 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL ($1,020)
  Goff on the road since 2020: 19-13 ATS
• Goff career as an underdog: 16-32 SU, 28-21 ATS
  As an underdog outdoors: 9-16-1 SU, 12-14 ATS
  As an underdog above 4 points: 4-18-1 SU, 14-9 ATS
• Goff has performed well at night, going 18-11 SU, 17-11-1 ATS.
  Including 6-2 SU/ATS with Lions.
• Goff has faced a team with a 70%+ win percentage nine times over the last three seasons, he is 7-2 SU, 9-0 ATS.
• Since the start of 2021, Goff is 11-2 ATS vs. teams with a 66% win pct or higher.
• Goff is 11-5 ATS in games not in EST with Lions, he was 25-31-2 ATS in that spot with Rams.
• Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the third-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
  In 2023, he is -1.88 units betting his yes INT prop.
  If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
• 49ers sack the opposing QB at a rate of 4.2% this season (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense).
  When Goff faces teams at a rate of 4% or higher, he is 28-16-1 ATS career, including 15-4 ATS as a Lion and 7-1 ATS this season.
• Most profitable Lions QBs ATS last 20 years
  Goff 43-16 ATS, 2. Dan Orlovsky 6-1 ATS, 3. Joey Harrington 24-18-1 ATS
• Most profitable QB against the spread…
• Since 2022: Jared Goff (25-11 ATS)
• Since 2021: Jared Goff (34-16 ATS)
• Since 2020: Jared Goff (42-24 ATS)
• Since 2019: Jared Goff (52-29-1 ATS)
• Since 2018: Jared Goff (61-38-2 ATS)
• Since 2017: Jared Goff (70-45-2 ATS)

Dan Campbell

• Dan Campbell 40-25 ATS (61.5%) career. Of 164 NFL coaches that have had 20-plus games experience under their belt since 1990, Dan Campbell has the second-best ATS win percentage of all of them (first is Brian Daboll at 22-13-1 ATS, 62.9%).
  ​​+ Lions are 36-17 against the spread under Dan Campbell. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL since he became head coach.
  The best ATS win pct for any head coach since merger (in a three-plus season span).
• Goff and Campbell vs. teams scoring over 21 PPG: 13-8 SU, 17-4 ATS

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49ers

Team

• Team status: 13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS.

13-5 score first. Over win total of 10.5. SF was one of two teams with double-digit win total who were over entering Week 18, with the Ravens. Bills, Ravens and 49ers are the three teams to go over their double-digit win total this season. SF is over their win total in consecutive years for first time since 2011-13.
+ With the Chiefs listed as underdogs in Week 18, the 49ers will be favored in all 17 games this season – the only team across the NFL.
Since 1980, San Francisco is the 21st team to be favorites in all of their regular season games.
+ Six won the Super Bowl — 2018 NE, 1998 DEN, 1995 DAL, 1994 SF, 1991 WAS, 1984 SF
+ 10 made the Super Bowl (four lost)
+ 14 made their Conference title game (four lost)
+ Of the 21 teams, six lost in the Divisional Round or earlier
+ These teams avg. 1.7 playoff wins campaign entering this year.
+ 49ers entered the playoffs as the favorite to win it all.
Favorite entering playoffs to win Super Bowl since 2000:
2022 Chiefs, 2016 Patriots, 2013 Seahawks, 2004 Patriots, 2003 Patriots
How has the favorite entering the playoffs performed since 1974? (1995 only year with true co-favorites entering the playoffs)
Won SB: 19
Lost SB: 10
Conf Champ: 10
Divisional: 11
In the Wild Card era (since 1990), here are how Super Bowl favorites entering the playoffs have performed:
Won SB: 11
Lost SB: 7
Conf Champ: 7
Divisional: 9
+ SF hasn’t faced DET since Week 1 of 2021. Jimmy G vs Goff in DET. Goff’s 1st start in DET. Start of eight straight losses begin season, DET started 0-10-1 SU.
+ SF has faced DET 21 times last 40 years. They are 18-3 SU.
The 49ers have won 13 straight at home vs. DET.
Last DET QB to win in SF? Joe Reed beat Steve Spurrier in 1975.
+ 49ers have dominated their opponents in wins.
1. 49ers had nine wins of 16 or more points this season (T-most this year with Cowboys).
Only seven teams have won nine or more games by 16 or more points during a regular season in Super Bowl era: 2023 SF, 2023 DAL (L DIV), 2013 DEN (L SB), 2007 NE (L SB), 1999 STL (W SB), 1968 DAL (L DIV), 1968 BAL (L SB)
Only 2023 and 1968 DAL failed to win a playoff game.
2. 49ers had eleven wins of 10 or more points this season – most in the NFL.
Most 10+ pt wins in the regular season in Super Bowl era: 13, 1999 STL | 12, 1998 MIN & 2007 NE | 11, 7 different teams
Of the 10 teams to win 11 or more games of 10 or more points in the Super Bowl era, eight won a playoff game (1968 DAL didn’t), six made the Super Bowl and four won it.
1999 STL (W SB, 3), 1998 MIN (L CC, 1), 2007 NE (L SB, 2), 1968 DAL (L DIV, 0), 1968 BAL (L SB, 2), 1972 MIA (W SB, 3) 1985 CHI (W SB, 3), 1996 GB (W SB, 3), 2021 BUF (L DIV, 1), 2023 SF
+ 49ers are currently streaking in the wrong direction.
SF lost two straight ATS entering CC
SF lost six straight ATS at home – had won 10 straight ATS at home prior to streak (incl. 16-2 ATS last 18 home games prior to streak).
+ Do the 49ers come with a tax this week?
Teams to be listed as a double-digit favorite in the Divisional Round or Championship round are just 3-6 ATS in their next game over the last 20 years, including 1-5 ATS as a 6-point favorite or higher.
+ After a team wins by 1-3 points at home in the playoffs how do they perform in their next game? 12-22 SU, 15-19 ATS in last 20 years
When that next game is also at home: 5-10 SU/ATS
+ In December or later, 49ers are 12-7 ATS at home the last five years, but they are 0-4 ATS in that spot this season.
+ 49ers were first team in history with 1 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE with 1,000+ yards with CMC, Kittle, Deebo and Aiyuk during the regular season.
+ 49ers record this season SU, ATS
Home: 6-3 SU, 3-6 ATS
Road: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS
+ 49ers haven’t needed QB in the playoffs.
One 300+ yard passing game last 13 playoff games last decade (9-4 SU)
Seven of those 13 games, starter had fewer than 200 pass yds (5-2 SU)
+ Jordan Love upset the Cowboys as 7-point underdogs in his first career playoff start, then lost to the 49ers the next week. How do teams perform after knocking off rookie phenoms?
Of the 10 QBs prior to Love, one didn't start the next playoff game, one lost in the Super Bowl
The other eight teams to beat the rookie went 5-3 SU, 3-4-1 ATS in their next game with seven of eight making the Super Bowl, with the lone exception being the 1998 Vikings.
+ 49ers will play in the NFC Championship after losing in Week 18 and barely winning their Divisional Round game. Five teams last 20 years have closed -3.5 or higher in CC after losing their last game of the season – those teams are 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS.

• Largest spread in Conference Championship after win by 8 points or less in Divisional Round – Super Bowl era
  -8: 1970 MIN (was -7 vs. LAR, W 23-20) – W vs CLE, 27-7
  -7: 2022 KC (was XX vs. XXX, W XX-XX) – L vs CIN, 27-24
  -7: 2015 NE (was XX vs. XXX, W XX-XX) – W vs. IND, 45-7
  -5.5: 1986 MIA (was -10.5 vs. CLE, W 24-21) – L vs NE, 31-14
  -5.5: 1974 OAK (was -3 vs. MIA, W 28-26) – L vs PIT, 24-13
  -5: 2014 DEN (was XX vs. XXX, W XX-XX) – W vs NE, 26-16
  -5: 1972 DAL (was -1 at MIN, W 20-12) – W vs. SF, 14-3
  -4.5: 1982 CIN (was -6 vs. BUF, W 28-21) – W vs SD, 27-7

Brock Purdy

• Brock Purdy will be just the third QB to start in back-to-back conference championship games in his first two NFL seasons. The other two?
  Ben Roethlisberger: Went 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in two-year run, ended in Super Bowl win vs. Seahawks. Started 17 more playoff games in his career after this run.
  Mark Sanchez: Never started a playoff game again after these two runs.
  He played all six games on the road in the two playoff years (4-2 SU/ATS)
• Purdy is 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS at home, just 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS on road.
• Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 17-5 SU with the 49ers (42-17 SU)
• Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 15-10 ATS
• Purdy is 15-10 ATS in his career.
  7-1 ATS as fav of 3.5 or less, or a dog
  8-9 ATS as fav of 4 or more
• Purdy has faced nine teams as a favorite of 4 points or more, where the opponent is averaging 21 PPG or more
  SF is 3-6 ATS – failing cover by 3 PPG.
• Brock Purdy regular season
  SU, ATS: 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS
  Home/Road: 8-2 SU, 6-4 at home. 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS on road
  Never been a dog in his 21 regular season starts. 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS as a favorite.
• Brock Purdy playoffs
  SU, ATS: 3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS
  Home/Road: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS at home. 0-1 SU/ATS on road
  Favorite/Dog: 3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS as favorite. 0-1 SU/ATS as dog.
• Brock Purdy has made six starts at night for the 49ers. He is 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS in those games – 2nd best 49ers QB ATS at night last 20 years behind Shaun Hill
  Purdy was 6-0 SU at home in night games at Iowa State
• Brock Purdy has beaten every NFC playoff team this year EXCEPT the Lions. He can be the first QB to sweep every playoff team in own conference incl. playoffs since Joe Montana in 1984 (via Doug Clawson).
  W, 42-10 vs (2) DAL
  W, 27-14 vs (4) TB
  W, 42-19 vs (5) PHI
  W, 30-23 vs (6) LAR
  W, 24-21 vs (7) GB

Kyle Shanahan

• 49ers after a small win under Kyle Shanahan.
  3 point win or less: 6-6 SU, 7-5 ATS
  8 point win or less: 15-10 SU, 17-8 ATS
• 49ers had six penalties in the win against the Packers.
  Under Kyle Shanahan, SF is 37-29 SU, 39-26-1 ATS the game after committing 6 penalties or more – including 23-10 SU when they are listed as a favorite in that next game.
• Kyle Shanahan is 7-3 ATS in the playoffs, losing two in a row ATS for the first time.
• Shanahan is 19-27-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 45-26 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.
  Lions are allowing 23.2 PPG this season.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 0-39 when trailing by 8 or more points in the 4th quarter.
• Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 31-11 SU, 28-13-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game as well.
  After playing in PST in his previous game, Shanahan has won 16 consecutive games SU playing in PST again – his last loss came back in December of 2021.
  When Shanahan’s opponents’ previous time zone is EST, he is 14-3 SU.
• 49ers are 12-34 SU, 12-34 ATS when trailing at the half under Kyle Shanahan.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 1-33 SU when trailing by more than 10 points in the second half. The only win came in Week 18 of 2021 season when they trailed Rams 17-3 and won 27-24 in OT.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 5-35 SU, 2-38 ATS when trailing by 3 points or more entering the 4th quarter.
• Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS when trailing entering the 4th quarter — including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season.
• Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West: 24-19-1 ATS | vs. non-divisional opp: 42-39 ATS
• Kyle Shanahan regular season (career)
  SU/ATS: 64-51 SU, 59-55-1 ATS
  Home/Away: 31-23 SU, 24-29-1 ATS at home. 33-28 SU, 35-26 ATS on road/neutral
  Favorite/Dog: 46-25 SU, 33-37-1 ATS as favorite. 18-26 SU, 26-18 ATS as dog.
• Kyle Shanahan playoffs (career)
  7-3 SU/ATS
  Home/Away: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home. 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS on road/neutral.
  Favorite/Dog: 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS as a favorite. 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
• Shanahan is 5-0 SU as a favorite and 5-0 SU at home in the playoffs.
  Only coach 5-0 SU or better as a favorite in the playoffs since 2000.
  Only coach 5-0 SU or better at home in the playoffs since 2000.
• 49ers are 3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS off a loss this season and are just 9-6 ATS in that spot last three seasons.
  Shanahan is 24-24-1 ATS off of a SU loss, just 8-12-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
• Kyle Shanahan with extra time to prepare:
  10+ days: 9-8 SU, 8-9 ATS
  Week 1: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
  Combined: 12-12 SU, 10-14 ATS
• Shanahan 1H ATS on extended rest: 8-8-1 ATS
• Shanahan off extended rest and their opponent is not: 12-6 ATS
  In the last 20 years, Shanahan is the 5th-most profitable coach in the NFL in this spot.
  Over the last two seasons he is 6-0 SU, 4-2 ATS in this spot
• Shanahan in night games with 49ers: 18-16 ATS
  11-14 ATS as favorite | 7-2 ATS as underdog

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Conference Championship History

Betting Markets

Sunday, Jan 28

3:00pm ET

CBS

Sunday, Jan 28

6:30pm ET

FOX

Weather Report

Sunday, Jan 28

3:00pm ET

CBS

https://images.actionnetwork.com/blog/2024/01/Snip20240127_58.png

Sunday, Jan 28

6:30pm ET

FOX

For updated weather reports check out the Action Network NFL Weather page

Referee Trends

Shawn Smith — KC at BAL
+ Ravens are 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS with Smith as ref — all in regular season, including 2-0 SU, 0-2 ATS at home with Smith.
+ Smith refereed the Chiefs loss to Eagles earlier this season.
+ Road teams are 52-36-5 ATS with Smith — that makes him 6th-best of 53 refs for road teams with Smith. Road teams went 9-3-2 ATS with Smith this year.

Clete Blakeman — DET at SF
+ Lions have covered 3 straight with Blakeman dating back to 2021 (1-2 SU). Dan Campbell is 3-0 ATS with Blakeman as referee.
+ Blakeman leads towards underdogs, going 119-100-5 ATS (+$1,327), including 30-19 ATS last three seasons. Dogs are 9-3 ATS in playoff games with Blakeman. Giants lost SU/ATS as dogs with Blakeman in playoffs last year vs. Eagles.

Full article on referee trends, notes and information on Shawn Smith and Clete Blakeman.

NFL Conference Championship Game Referees: How to Bet Based on Prior TrendsRead now

Trends & Systems

System: Teams who become smaller underdogs in the playoffs — example, team opens +3 and moves to +2.5 — they have excelled ATS historically.

Matches: TBD — follow the markets.

$$$: Underdog gets smaller in playoffs

the spread change from open to close is between -100 and -0.5

the team is the Dog

the game is played during the Postseason season

$2,314

WON

45-20-2

RECORD

69%

WIN%

View System

System: The Andy Reid Tree. Reid has done well against his former assistants. He is also 5-0 SU in the playoffs.

Matches: KC

Andy Reid Tree

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

the coach is Andy Reid

the opponent's coach is Brad Childress or Doug Pederson or John Harbaugh or Leslie Frazier or Matt Nagy or Pat Shurmur or Ron Rivera or Sean McDermott or Steve Spagnuolo or Todd Bowles

$530

WON

22-9-0

RECORD

71%

WIN%

View System

System: When the game is in PST and the road team is traveling from EST, the market tends to inflate the home team.

Matches: DET

$$$: Game in PST, Road Team, Was in EST (since 2016)

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 or 2017-18 or 2016-17 season

the team is the Visitor team

the game is played in the Pacific timezone

the team's previous game was played in the Eastern timezone

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

$1,737

WON

76-53-5

RECORD

59%

WIN%

View System

Champion Dogs

Trophy

• In the last 20 years, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 59-24-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog in the playoffs.
  Those QBs are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a dog before winning the ring.
  34-16-2 ATS (68%) after the ring — incl. 12-4 ATS since 2018 playoffs.

Different Quarters

Leading Early

• Lions are 3-16 3Q ATS this season — worst in NFL

They are 10-0 SU this season when leading after 1st quarter (8-18 SU previous four seasons)

Streaking

Bring Your Hat

• 49ers are currently streaking in the wrong direction.

SF lost two straight ATS entering CC

SF lost six straight ATS at home – had won 10 straight ATS at home prior to streak (incl. 16-2 ATS last 18 home games prior to streak).

Low Scoring

Hold The Door

• When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat.

KC is 54-7 SU (89%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct. of any NFL team), including 19-0 SU in the last two seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.

• Chiefs second half unders have been the play…

Second half unders are 17-2 in KC games this year

4th quarter unders are 18-1 in KC games this year

Who's Next?

Getting Torched

• Lions defense has been torched the last 5 games…
  Vs. TB: Mayfield 26-41, 349, 3-2 (Evans 8-147-1)
  Vs. LAR: Stafford 25-36, 367, 2-0 (Puka 9-181-1)
  Vs. MIN: Mullens 30-44, 396, 2-2 (JJ 12-192-1)
  Vs. DAL: Dak 26-38, 345, 2-1 (Lamb 13-227-1)
  Vs. MIN: Mullens 22-36, 411, 2-4 (JJ 6-141-1)

Playoff Stat Leaders

NFL Playoff Stat Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Category	3rd In Category
Pass Yds	Baker Mayfield (+1600): Leader	Jared Goff (+750): -122	Patrick Mahomes (+650): -209
Rush Yds	Aaron Jones (+5000): Leader	Isiah Pacheco (+1100): -40	Lamar Jackson (+1800): -126
Rec. Yds	Romeo Doubs (+15000): Leader	Amon-Ra St. Brown (+650): -47	Rashee Rice (+750): -57
Rush TD	Aaron Jones (+6000): Co-Leader	Josh Allen (+500): Co-Leader	CMC, Lamar, Pacheco, Gibbs: -1
Rec. TD	Jake Ferguson (+2000): Leader	Travis Kelce (+2000): -1	Tied (N/A): -2
Sacks	Aidan Hutchinson (+1500): Leader	Ifeatu Melifonwu (N/A): -1.5	George Karlaftis (+5000): -1.5
Updated as of Jan. 23rd

Player Stats

Chiefs

• Kelce playoff stats.
  145 catches for 1,694 yards and 18 touchdowns in 20 games
  Already leads all tight ends in playoff yards, receptions, touchdowns and yards per game.
  Fifth all time in games played with 20
  Billy Joe Dupree, Pete Metzelaars and Gronk tied for 1st at 22 followed by Brent Jones with 21
• NFL Postseason History
  Catches: 1 Jerry Rice: 151, 2 Kelce: 145
  Receiving Yards: 1 Jerry Rice: 2,245, 2 Kelce: 1,694
  Receiving TD: 1 Jerry Rice: 22, 2 Kelce: 18
• Kelce has 5+ receptions in 12 straight playoff games. The record is 13 by Julian Edelman.
• Travis Kelce broke the streak of no touchdowns with 2 against the Bills. He had gone seven straight games without scoring a TD – That was tied for the longest streak of his NFL career (Dec. 2016).
  Kelce has faced the Ravens five times. He has 6+ rec. in all five games, 2 TD and 70+ yards in all five games. Chiefs are 4-1 SU in those games.
  Kelce has a rec TD in 13 of 20 career playoff games. With Mahomes, Kelce has scored in three of four playoff games away from Arrowhead.
• KC guard Joe Thuney was hurt vs. Bills.
  Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones were held to 0 pressures on 38 combined pass rushes, Oliver's first game without a pressure since Week 13, 2021.
  Jones was double teamed on 12 of 17 pass rushes (70.6%), while Oliver had 10 one-on-one matchups vs Joe Thuney.
  Joe Thuney had 13 pass rush matchups against Bills star DT Ed Oliver and allowed pressures on the night.

Ravens

• Ravens TE Mark Andrews is supposed to return for Baltimore’s Conference Championship playoff game.
• Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 10-3 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
• Ravens are 8-1 SU without Andrews this season (lost to Steelers).
• Lamar Jackson is over 1.5 passing TD in four straight home games. He is over 1.5 pass TD on the road in just one of his last six starts.
• This season, Lamar is averaging 11 more rush yards per game at home vs. road.
• Odell Beckham Jr's longest reception is set as low as 12.5 and as high as 14.5 in the market. He is over that number in 7 of 8 home games this year and just 2 of 7 road games.

Lions

• Jared Goff is under 1.5 passing TDs in six of 23 road games since 2021. At 35 pass attempts or fewer, he is two of 13 under 1.5 pass TD in that span.
• Jahmyr Gibbs is over 14.5 longest rush in his last six road games, including a TD in 6 of his last 7 games.
• With three targets or more, Jameson Williams has exceeded 32.5 receiving yards in six straight games.
• Most receiving TDs, rookie TEs, incl. playoffs
  12 Mike Ditka, 1961
  11 Sam LaPorta, 2023
  10 Rob Gronkowski, 2010
• Sam LaPorta has scored in seven different home games for the Lions this season. He has scored only once on the road.

49ers

• Six consecutive QBs have gone over their passing yards prop against the Lions defense. Opposing QBs are 13-5 to their pass yards over this season. Purdy is as low as 270.5 in the market.
• Purdy's pass attempts prop is set at 30.5 this week. Purdy is over 30.5 in just 6 of 29 games last two years.
• Deebo matters.
  49ers results in games that Deebo Samuel starts AND finishes: 12-1 SU/10-3 ATS
  49ers results in games Deebo Samuel misses or starts and doesn’t finish: 1-4 SU/0-5 ATS (the lone win being in Divisional). They are avg. 18 PPG.
• Deebo leads SF in targets and receptions when they are leading this year and he’s 1st in yards/rush attempt for them when leading too (min 5 rushes).
• Via Adam Levitan: Deebo Samuel (shoulder) left after six routes Saturday.
  Other 49ers WR routes run on 43 Brock Purdy dropbacks:
  Brandon Aiyuk 43, Jauan Jennings 31, Ray-Ray McCloud 16, Chris Conley 16 (Note: Ronnie Bell was a healthy inactive).
• 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t.
  49ers Record When Deebo Gets at Least One Target:
  With: 44-13 SU
  Without: 9-10 SU
• When their stars are healthy. When Deebo and CMC are starting, 49ers are 21-3 SU, 16-8 ATS
• In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 25-5 SU, 19-11 ATS. In those 30 games, McCaffrey has 36 total TDs.
• Christian McCaffrey playoff career:
  5 GP, 63 car for 352 yds, 25 rec for 192 yds, 4 rush TDs
• McCaffrey is -300 to score an anytime TD this week.
  Shortest Closing Odds To Score an Anytime TD — Last 3 Seasons via @GDAWG5000
  -340: CMC (Div, 2024) ✅
  -340: CMC (WK17, 2023) ❌
  -340: CMC (WK14, 2023) ❌
  -320: CMC (WK15, 2023) ✅
  -300: CMC (Champ, 2024)
  -300: J. Taylor (WK18, 2021) ❌

TD Zone

Below is the 2023-24 Anytime TD sheet for the four remaining teams — which encompasses every player to score a TD in 2023 so far for the four remaining teams.

Now for the "First Team TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first team TD of the game this season for the four remaining teams.

Super Bowl Futures

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Kansas City Chiefs: +350 (KC was 9-1 to win SB entering playoffs)

Right Behind the Chiefs…

Detroit Lions: 7-1 (DET was 20-1 to win SB entering playoffs)

Trivia

For this weeks trivia question, we are looking for just one answer. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: This week, Patrick Mahomes is an underdog for the 12th time. Name the only quarterback to be a road favorite against Mahomes in his career.

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