The NFL Conference Championships are here.
In the NFC, an argument can be made that the two best teams of the remaining four are facing off, as the 49ers take on the Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. In the AFC, we have a rematch from last year with Joe Burrow and the Bengals battling a potentially compromised Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.
This piece reveals my DFS cash lineups at both DraftKings and FanDuel, plus my top Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) plays.
DFS — CASH
DraftKings Cash Lineup
QB Jalen Hurts $7,200 vs. SF
RB Christian McCaffrey $8,000 at PHI
RB Joe Mixon $6,500 at KC
WR Ja’Marr Chase $7,600 at KC
WR Deebo Samuel $5,700 at PHI
WR Tee Higgins $5,400 at KC
WR Kadarius Toney $3,700 vs. CIN
TE Hayden Hurst $3,000 at KC
DST Philadelphia Eagles $2,800 vs. SF
FanDuel Cash Lineup
QB Jalen Hurts $9,200 vs. SF
RB Christian McCaffrey $9,000 at PHI
RB Jerick McKinnon $6,500 vs. CIN
RB Isiah Pacheco $6,300 vs. CIN
WR Ja’Marr Chase $8,600 at KC
WR Kadarius Toney $5,600 vs. CIN
WR Tyler Boyd $5,300 at KC
TE Hayden Hurst $5,400 at KC
DST San Francisco 49ers $4,100 at PHI
QB
Jalen Hurts is my top projected player on the slate and top projected value at quarterback. He has posted at least 16.9 points on DraftKings and FanDuel in 15 of his 16 starts.
Joe Burrow is obviously an option, but the Bengals' pass-catchers have better value than the Eagles' receivers, which negates some of the value of rostering Burrow as opposed to Hurts.
RB
Christian McCaffrey has scored in eight straight games and projects as the only high-floor RB play.
Joe Mixon is easy enough to roster on DraftKings at $6,500, but he's too expensive on FanDuel at $8,100. On FanDuel, I'd pivot to Jerick McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco, each of whom had double-digit touches with at least 60 yards and a touchdown when these teams met in Week 13.
WR
Ja’Marr Chase has scored in five of his past six games. His 29.4% target share this season makes him a safe bet to roster while fading Burrow at QB.
Kadarius Toney has been targeted on 33.3% of his routes over the past five games and has seen four carries over the past two, mitigating his sub-50% snap rates. His cheap salary gives him more upside than downside.
Tee Higgins is way too cheap on DraftKings at $5,400. He’s been in a slump over his past three games, but he ran a route on at least 90% of Burrow’s dropbacks in each game — we should expect that to turn around sooner than later. Higgins has posted double-digit DK points in 12 of 17 games this season.
Tyler Boyd is the best WR3 value on FanDuel. He has run a route on 90% of Burrow’s dropbacks over the past three weeks.
TE
With the uncertainty surrounding Mahomes, Travis Kelce is somewhat of a risky proposition. It’s also worth noting that Kelce posted one of his worst games of the season when these teams met in Week 13 — four catches (on six targets) for 56 yards and no touchdowns.
The smarter play is to punt with Hayden Hurst, who has at least four catches in 10 of 14 games. Hurst appeared to be on his way to a big game before getting injured in Week 13, drawing three targets and hauling in two catches on six routes.
DST
The Eagles are my top projected DST on the slate and are easy enough to afford on DraftKings.
I have the 49ers third, slightly behind the Chiefs due mostly to a higher sack projection for Kansas City. I’m punting with the 49ers in cash to make salaries work.
Top GPP Plays
QB Patrick Mahomes, KC — The ankle injury lowers his floor more so than his ceiling. We’ve seen him put up massive numbers with a high ankle sprain before.
QB Joe Burrow, CIN — He hasn’t been putting up massive numbers lately, but he is the second-best bet to finish as the slate’s top QB after Hurts.
QB Brock Purdy, SF — His numbers looked pedestrian against a Cowboys defense that is of similar quality to Philadelphia’s. However, this could be the first time the undefeated Purdy sees extended negative game script, and Kyle Shanahan’s scheme has allowed him to post no lower than 7.4 YPA.
QB Chad Henne, KC — For those max-entering in large-field GPPs, it makes sense to have a few Henne lineups in case Mahomes’ elevated re-injury risk comes to fruition.
RB Miles Sanders, PHI — It's a daunting matchup against a 49ers defense that allows a league-low 3.29 yards per carry to opposing halfbacks. But he does make sense as TD leverage in lineups that fade Hurts.
RB Kenneth Gainwell, PHI — This plays if you’re building a lineup that projects the Eagles to have an extremely positive game script or extremely negative game script. He gets the nod over Sanders on obvious passing downs, but won’t get more than a handful of carries unless the Eagles are up big.
RB Samaje Perine, CIN — Perine has run more routes than Mixon this postseason, so it makes sense in builds where the Bengals are projected to have a negative game script.
WR A.J. Brown, PHI — Ownership could be lowered due to injury concerns.
WR DeVonta Smith, PHI — Five-plus catches and 60-plus yards in each of the past seven games.
WR Deebo Samuel, SF — Averaging 8.0 targets and 3.5 carries in the playoffs and could see more carries with Elijah Mitchell questionable.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster, KC — Somewhat of a forgotten man, but still the Chiefs’ WR1. He ran a route on 87% of the dropbacks last week..
WR Brandon Aiyuk, SF — Tough matchup versus Darius Slay and James Bradberry, but the scheme gives him upside.
WR Jauan Jennings, SF — Runs the most slot routes among 49ers WRs, which should help him avoid Slay and Bradberry.
WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling, KC — Over 16 yards per catch this season and could connect for a deep touchdown.
WR Mecole Hardman, KC — If active, he should be no worse than the WR4 beyond Smith-Schuster, Valdes-Scantling and Toney — and ahead of Justin Watson (questionable; illness) and Skyy Moore.
WR Zach Pascal, PHI — Ran a route on 38% of dropbacks to Quez Watkins’ 27% last week.
TE Travis Kelce, KC — Easily could finish as the top-scoring player on the slate, but have to be more selective with him given price and uncertainty surrounding Kansas City's passing game. Kelce the most sense in stacks with Mahomes, lineups that fade Chase and/or McCaffrey.
TE Dallas Goedert, PHI — High-floor play who will likely need a touchdown to hit value as he takes a backseat to A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith.
TE George Kittle, SF — Wide range of outcomes, but could be a key to San Francisco’s passing game if Slay and Bradberry lock up outside.
TE Noah Gray, KC — Route participation has trended up — 42%, 48%, 51% — over the last three games, so he has some appeal, especially as Kelce leverage.
TE Jack Stoll, PHI — Tied a season high in snap rate in a game with Goedert active (53%) last week. Makes sense as a dart-throw in larger tournaments.
DST Chiefs — My No. 2 projected defense due to home-field advantage and projected sacks. It should be easier for the Chiefs to generate a pass rush against the Bengals in non-icy conditions than it was for the Bills in the snow last week.
DST Bengals — Cincinnati is my lowest projected DST but has the widest range outcomes due to the game-planning brilliance of defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo.
