The first four weeks of the NFL season can simultaneously tell you very little about one team while revealing a ton about others. If you're a 0-4 or 1-3 team after Week 4, you should be concerned, but being 4-0 or 3-1 doesn't mean you should be planning a parade.
Take a quick glance at the NFC and you'll see four surprising teams atop each division: The Minnesota Vikings (3-1), Washington Commanders (3-1), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-1) and Seattle Seahawks (3-1).
How unlikely is it that those are the teams in first place? Exactly none of them were favorites to win their respective division entering the season.
If you placed a $10 wager on a parlay with those four teams to win their divisions before the season started, you'd be sitting on a ticket with a $37,790 potential payout. Even if you made that same $10 wager on those four teams just before Week 2, you'd be in line for a $27,848 payout if the standings held through the regular season.
The most unlikely team in this group, the Vikings, entered Week 1 with +1100 odds to win the NFC North behind the Detroit Lions (+130 favorites before the season started), Green Bay Packers (+230) and Chicago Bears (+280). Minnesota had the same odds to win its division as the Carolina Panthers had to win the NFC South ahead of Week 1.
Now, the Vikings are one of the two unbeaten teams left in the NFL thanks to the surprising play of Sam Darnold, who went from bridge quarterback to starter to MVP candidate in six weeks. At +800, Darnold has the same odds to win MVP as Lamar Jackson and C.J. Stroud, and the Vikings are +105 favorites to win the NFC North entering Week 5.
One could argue that the Commanders are an even bigger surprise sitting atop the NFC East. Led by rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who just won NFL Offensive Rookie of the Month, the Commanders went from +900 to win the division ahead of Week 1 to +1800 entering Week 2. Entering Week 5, Washington is tied with the Dallas Cowboys at +240 and trailing the Philadelphia Eagles, who are +110 favorites to win the division.
Seattle entered Week 1 at +650 behind the San Francisco 49ers, who were -195 to win the NFC West (the second-biggest division favorite in the NFL), and the L.A. Rams, who were +350 in the division to start the season.
The Seahawks look like the biggest outlier here. They faced the Denver Broncos, New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins without Tua Tagovailoa before suffering their first loss against the Lions to reach their 3-1 record. But the Seahawks are 1-2-1 against the spread this season, which is in the bottom 10 of the NFL, and the 49ers remain -135 favorites to take the NFC West crown.
Finally, we have the Buccaneers and the always unpredictable NFC South. The Atlanta Falcons opened the season as -130 favorites to win the division, with the Buccaneers trailing them at +320. Entering Week 5, the Falcons are slight favorites to win the division at +170, with the Buccaneers (+180) and New Orleans Saints (+200) close behind.
Of the four division-leading teams, the Vikings (.462), Buccaneers (.481) and Seahawks (.462) have the easiest remaining strength of schedule in their respective divisions. The Commanders (.442) have a slightly tougher schedule than the Eagles (.404) but still have one of the easiest paths going forward compared to the rest of the league.
Again, it's Week 5, and jumping the gun this early in the season is a fool's errand, but seeing these four teams lead their respective divisions by the end of the season isn't outside the realm of possibility.
