NFL Divisional Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

After a close to unprecedented round of blowouts in the Wild Card round, we have three rematches from this year in the Divisional Round, and then we have Packers vs. 49ers on Saturday night.

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Divisional Round version of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Saturday, Jan. 20, 4 p.m. ET. 

Longshots

Back-to-Back Years

• Texans: 200-1
• Bucs: 100-1

Both Houston and Tampa Bay had 100-1 or higher odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and are now in the Divisional Round.

It's the third time since 1978 (Wild Card format) that we've had two 100-1 or higher teams in the Divisional Round (2022, 1987).

The Texans are the first team since the 1981 Giants to be listed with 200-1 odds or higher to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and advance to the Divisional Round.

Rest Advantage

Forget The Bye

Both the Lions and Chiefs enter their Divisional Round games with a rest advantage, without having a bye week.

These will be the 57th and 58th playoff games played in the past 20 years where both teams aren’t off a bye week, but one team has a “rest advantage.”

2024: Bucs (6) at Lions (7)
2024: Chiefs (8) at Bills (6)
The team with the rest advantage is 32-23 SU, 30-25 ATS. A small edge.

Home: 24-9 SU, 19-14 ATS
Road: 8-14 SU, 11-11 ATS (19 of 22 teams listed as underdogs)

But, Chiefs vs. Bills will be just the second game with a two-day difference:
2022-23 Cowboys at 49ers. SF on 8 days, DAL on 6 days. SF won 19-12 as a 3.5-point favorite.

Rookie Dog

Betting History

If the Texans close around a 9-point underdog and are able to take down the Ravens, C.J. Stroud would join Mark Sanchez as the only rookies to win a playoff game as that high of an underdog.

• 2023-24 C.J. Stroud, +9.5 at BAL
• 2009-10 Mark Sanchez, +9 at LAC

Stroud hasn’t thrown an interception since November 11th (6 straight games) and has nine touchdowns in that span.

Tough Times

Changing The Narrative

Lamar Jackson has historically struggled as a favorite, in the playoffs, at home. A spot he finds himself in this week.

• Playoffs: 1-3 SU/ATS (4-0 to under)
• Home Favorite: 28-10 SU, 15-23 ATS. Of 220 QBs over the past 20 years, he is ranked 213th ATS as a home favorite.
• On 12+ days rest: 1-6 ATS

Past 3 seasons:
-3.5 or higher: 6-16 ATS
-7.5 or higher: 1-8 ATS — worst mark of 32 QBs. His only cover? Week 1 this season at home against the Texans as a 9.5-point favorite.

• With a loss, Jackson would be two games under .500 SU as a favorite in the playoffs. Alex Smith (1-4) and Kirk Cousins (0-2) are the only other QBs in the past 20 years that could say that.
• Not only that. Jackson would join a bad list with a loss …

Most -7.5 or Higher Playoff Losses in Super Bowl era (with BAL loss)
4 – Peyton Manning
3 – Tom Brady
2 – Drew Brees, Brett Favre, Joe Montana, Lamar Jackson

Most -10 or Higher Playoff Losses in Super Bowl era (with BAL loss)
-10 or higher
2 – Lamar Jackson
1 – 14 QBs tied with

Cold As Ever

Dome Effect

The Houston Texans — a team who plays in a dome — will travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30 degree weather for the playoffs 8 times. Those teams are 2-6 SU, losing by 10 PPG.

The two wins? 2014 Saints in Philly and 2005 Vikings in Green Bay.

Never Dogs

Exclusive List

The 49ers were the only team during the 2023 regular season to be favored in all 17 of their games.

Since 1980, San Francisco will be the 21st team to be favored in each of its regular-season games.

• 6 won the Super Bowl — 2018 NE, 1998 DEN, 1995 DAL, 1994 SF, 1991 WAS, 1984 SF
• 10 made the Super Bowl (4 lost)
• 14 made their conference title game (4 lost)
• Of the 21 teams, six lost in the Divisional Round or earlier
• These teams average 1.7 playoff wins per campaign

Lambeau Leap

History Awaits

Packers are 7-6-1 SU this season. That is one win away from tying the record for most straight up underdog wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era, including the playoffs.

With a win …
+ 2023 GB would match 2010 GB as the only Packers teams to make the Conference Championship with all playoff games being on the road. They both beat NFC East teams (PHI, DAL), No. 1 seeds (ATL, SF) and traveled to an NFC North team ( … maybe, CHI).
+ Jordan Love can beat the Cowboys and 49ers in back-to-back weeks in the playoffs. No team has defeated both the Cowboys and 49ers in a single playoff campaign.
+ Love would be first Packers QB to win his first two playoff starts (Favre and Lynn Dickey both lost next one).
+ GB would join 2013 BAL, 2008 NYG (X2), 2002 NE and 1996 JAX in winning back-to-back weeks in playoffs as 7-pt underdogs or higher.

Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-25 SU and 15-17 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-17 SU and 9-10 ATS.

Loves Chalk

All Alone

Kyle Shanahan has been great at home and as a favorite in the playoffs. He is 4-0 SU/ATS in both spots.

Since 1990, he is the only coach 4-0 ATS or better at home or as a favorite in the playoffs.

Fighting For Four

Undefeated

Baker Mayfield is 3-0 ATS in his playoff career.

He is just 1 of 2 QBs 3-0 ATS or better in the playoffs since 1980.

Jeff Hostetler finished his career 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.

• Buccaneers are 6-6 SU and 9-3 ATS as underdogs this season, they were 0-4 ATS as underdogs last season.
• Baker Mayfield is 27-21 ATS as an underdog and 14-26-1 ATS as a favorite.
  Baker 27-21 ATS as a 'dog, has covered 4 in a row as 'dog, which includes going 7-1 ATS in his past 8.

First Time Ever

Motor City Miracle

This is just the second time in Lions franchise history that they have been favorites in the playoffs in consecutive games. It last happened for them in 1952 against the L.A. Rams and then in Cleveland against the Browns.

If the Lions close above a 3.5-point favorite, it will be their biggest line as a favorite in a playoff game in franchise history.

In the past 20 years, the Lions have been favored by 6 pts or more vs. a team above .500 SU just twice. They are 0-2 SU/ATS, with their last such game coming in 2012.

Patty The Pup

Another Cover?

Patrick Mahomes is 7-3 SU and 8-1-1 ATS as an underdog in his career.

This will technically be Mahomes’ second career playoff road game after he faced the Bucs in their stadium in the Super Bowl (a 31-9 loss).

In the past 20 years, Mahomes is the 3rd QB to be undefeated SU in the Divisional and Wild Card rounds (min 4 starts).

• Patrick Mahomes: 7-0 SU
• Mark Sanchez, Joe Burrow: 4-0 SU
• Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy Garoppolo: 3-0 SU
  (Brock Purdy: 2-0 SU)

I Don't Know About You

A New Era

Travis Kelce has gone 7 straight games without scoring a TD. That is tied for the longest streak of his NFL career (December, 2016).

Two-Faced

Which Side of Josh?

The Bills played near perfect vs. the Steelers with no turnovers.

• Josh Allen is 13-18-2 ATS after the Bills don’t turn the ball over in their previous game – including 4-10-1 ATS in the past 3 seasons, worst of 80 QBs in NFL.

Allen faces a great Chiefs defense.

• Chiefs allowed only 16.7 PPG during the regular season and allowed just seven points in the Wild Card Round.

Allen vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG: 20-6-1 ATS (77%)

His 20-6-1 ATS mark is 2nd-best of 247 QBs last 20 years behind just Tom Brady (Peyton Manning is 3rd).

Texans at Ravens | Saturday, Jan. 20

4:30pm ET | ESPN

BAL -9.5 | 43.5

Texans

• Team status: 11-7 SU, 10-8 ATS.

• Texans are up to 11 SU wins this season, that is their most in a year in the last four seasons.
  2023: 11-7 SU | 2020-22: 11-38-1 SU
• Buccaneers were tied for the 4th-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season and now they join the Texans (200-1) as the two longshots left in the field.
  They are the 30th and 31st teams to enter the playoffs with 100-1 odds or higher entering the season since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978.
  1 Won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
  1 Lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
  3 Lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
  8 Lost in Divisional
  16 Lost in Wild Card
• Texans are the seventh team listed at 200-1 or higher in the preseason to make the playoffs since 16-game schedule was instituted in 1978.

• • The Bucs and Texans are the second duo at 100-1 Super Bowl odds or longer to in the preseason to make the Divisional Round since 1987, when the Oilers (120-1) and Colts (150-1) did.
    Giants and Jaguars did so last season. Giants lost by 31, Jacksonville lost by 7.
    Houston and Indianapolis both lost by 17+ and failed to cover the spread in the Divisional Round.
  • Texans didn’t play in primetime this season prior to week 18 – they had all 16 games all starting at 1pm EST entering this week. The only such team this season.
  • Texans have played eleven playoff games. 10 have been played outside the night window.
    Saturday playoff games: 5-3 SU/ATS
    Sunday playoff games: 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS
  • An 0-2 team has made the playoffs in 8 of the last 11 seasons now. Texans were the lone team this season.
  • Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 27-13 ATS (68%) in the Divisional Round over the last 20 years. Those same teams are 38-41-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
    GB, HOU
  • Last rookie HC and QB to make it to the playoffs? Chuck Pagano and Andrew Luck with Colts in 2012.
    2012 Colts lost in Wild Card 24-9 at the Ravens (against Joe Flacco).
    2023 Texans won in Wild Card 45-14 vs Browns (against Joe Flacco)
    FWIW: No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it.
  • Since 1990, rookie QBs are 13-18 SU in the playoffs, including 6-11 SU over the last decade.
  • Only seven rookie QBs have won a playoff game since the 2000 season:
    CJ Stroud (2024) — ?
    Brock Purdy (2023) – Won next game (L CC)
    Russell Wilson (2013) – Lost next game (L DIV)
    T.J. Yates (2012) – Lost next game (L DIV)
    Mark Sanchez (2010) – Won next game (L CC)
    Joe Flacco (2009) – Won next game (L CC)
    Ben Roethlisberger (2005) – Lost next game (L DIV)
  • Texans home vs. road this season
    Home: 7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS
    Road: 4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS
  • Texans after a SU win this season: 5-5 SU/ATS
    After winning by more than 8 points: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS
  • Teams in the playoffs after winning by 30 points or more:
    In the last 20 years, teams that win by 30+ points in the playoffs are 21-9 SU, 17-13 ATS in their following game.
    Teams after scoring 40 pts or more in the playoffs: 23-20 SU, 21-22 ATS
  • Texans vs. non-AFC South teams this season: 7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS
    Recently: 5-2 SU, 3-4 ATS in last seven games
  • Texans after allowing 28+ pts: 4-0 SU/ATS
    Texans after allowing 20 pts or less: 4-5 SU/ATS
  • Texans this season with CJ Stroud vs. Case Keenum
    Stroud: 10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS
    Keenum: 1-1 SU/ATS
  • Ravens defense is allowing 16.5 PPG this season.
    Stroud vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or less: 4-3 SU/ATS
    Stroud vs. defenses allowing more than 21 PPG: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS
  • Stroud is 2-0 SU playing on a Saturday in the NFL. At Ohio State he was 23-4 SU on Saturday’s.
  • CJ Stroud’s crazy rookie season…
    Stroud is the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to lead the league in both passing yards per game (274) and TD-INT ratio (23-5)
    Stroud is the youngest player (22 years, 96 days) in NFL history to lead the league in pass TD-INT ratio in a season. The previous youngest was Arnie Herber (22 years, 260 days) for the 1932 Packers. He had 9 pass TD and 9 INT.
    Stroud finished his rookie season with a winning record. He joins Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck as the only QBs in the Super Bowl era to have a winning record in his rookie season after being a top-2 pick in the NFL Draft – and the only one to win a playoff game that season.
    Stroud is the third QB in the last 50 seasons to lead the NFL in Pass YPG and TD-INT ratio, along with Joe Montana in 1989 and Tom Brady in 2007. Montana won the Super Bowl. Brady lost in the Super Bowl.
    Stroud’s season…
  • Third-most passing yards for a rookie (Luck 4,374, Herbert 4,336)
  • fourth rookie ever with 100 or better passer rating (Dak Prescott 104.9, Robert Griffin III 102.4, Russell Wilson 100.0)
  • CJ Stroud hasn’t thrown an interception since Nov. 11 (six straight games). He has 9 TD, 0 INT.
  • CJ Stroud wins his first playoff game after an incredible season.
    There have been 23 rookies QBs to throw for 3,000+ pass yards: One had won a playoff game entering this season (Russell Wilson in 2012), 15 missed the playoffs, six lost their first playoff game.
    2012 Andrew Luck – L, Wild Card
    2020 Justin Herbert – Miss Playoffs
    2011 Cam Newton – Miss Playoffs
    2015 Jameis Winston – Miss Playoffs
    2021 Mac Jones – L, Wild Card
    2016 Carson Wentz – Miss Playoffs
    1998 Peyton Manning – Miss Playoffs
    2018 Baker Mayfield – Miss Playoffs
    2019 Kyler Murray – Miss Playoffs
    2016 Dak Prescott – L, Divisional (1st playoff game)
    2021 Trevor Lawrence – Miss Playoffs
    2010 Sam Bradford – Miss Playoffs
    2008 Matt Ryan – L, Wild Card
    2011 Andy Dalton – L, Wild Card
    2012 Brandon Weeden – Miss Playoffs
    2012 Ryan Tannehill – Miss Playoffs
    2019 Gardner Minshew – Miss Playoffs
    2014 Derek Carr – Miss Playoffs
    2012 Robert Griffin – L, Wild Card
    2012 Russell Wilson – L, Divisional (won 1 game)
    2013 Geno Smith – Miss Playoffs
    2019 Daniel Jones – Miss Playoffs

• Stroud has made 16 starts in his NFL career. He’s 6-2 ATS as an underdog and 3-5 ATS as a favorite.
  He’s excelled in the first half, going 11-5 1H ATS this season.
  In the 1H, Stroud is 7-1 ATS as a dog, 4-4 ATS as a favorite
  Stroud vs. AFC South: 3-2 SU/ATS
• Stroud vs. teams above .500 SU: 6-1 SU/ATS
  Below .500 SU: 3-3 SU, 1-5 ATS
• CJ Stroud was the fourth rookie QB to face the No. 1 defense. Previous three QBs went 0-3 SU before Stroud got the win.
  This week, he faces the Ravens allowing 16.5 PPG, best in the NFL.
  Divisional Round road teams facing defenses allowing fewer than 17 PPG, with that opponent off a bye, are 12-8 ATS last 20 years, including 10-5 ATS last 15 spots.
• Most passing yards in a rookie’s 1st career playoff game since 1991.
  2022 49ers Brock Purdy (332) -> Won, Covered, Home, 214
  2016 Cowboys Dak Prescott (302), Lost
  2012 Colts Andrew Luck (288), Lost
  Texans CJ Stroud (274) → TBD
  Bengals Andy Dalton (257), Lost
• Stroud is the first rookie QB to defeat a former Super Bowl-winning QB in a playoff game. Rookies had gone 0-5 in such games.
  2004 – Roethlisberger vs. Brady
  2008 – Ryan vs. Warner
  2008 – Flacco vs. Roethlisberger
  2009 – Sanchez vs. Manning
  2016 – Prescott vs. Rodgers
• Highest drafted rookie QBs to win a playoff game in common draft era (1967)
  2023 Stroud, HOU, 2nd
  2009 Sanchez, NYJ, 5th → Won next game on road, fewer pts, pass yds, comp%
  2004 Roethlisberger, PIT, 11th → Lost next game at home, more pts, yds, comp%
  2009 Flacco, BAL, 18th → Won next game on road, fewer pts, more pass yds, comp%
• Stroud is the first rookie quarterback drafted in the first round to win a playoff game since 2009, when Mark Sanchez did it with the New York Jets.
  Rookie QBs and 1st-time head coaches to win a playoff game
  2023 Texans: C.J. Stroud and DeMeco Ryans
  2009 Jets: Mark Sanchez & Rex Ryan (NYJ won next week as 9pt dogs at SD – lost next game on road SU/ATS)
  2008 Ravens: Joe Flacco & John Harbaugh (BAL won next week as 3-pt dogs vs. TEN – lost next game on road SU/ATS)
  1945 Rams: Bob Waterfield and Adam Walsh (Only one playoff game – lost opener for the next season)
• Stroud changes the Ohio State narrative…
  == Stroud is the first NFL quarterback from Ohio State to eclipse 3,000 passing yards in a season (3,631). The previous high was Mike Tomczak with 2,767 yards (16 games) in 1996.
  == Four Ohio State QBs have been taken in the first round: Justin Fields, Dwayne Haskins, Art Schlister & CJ Stroud. Entering 2023, they are 8-36 SU as a starter in the NFL. Stroud this season has 10 wins himself.
  == 19 Ohio St QBs have been taken in the NFL or Supplemental Draft – one has been selected to the Pro Bowl so far – Tom Tupa in 1999 for Jets (didn’t draft him)
  == Fields this season became the only Ohio State QB to be the primary starter for 2 or more seasons in the NFL.
  == Stroud is 10-6 SU this season, his first year in the league. QBs out of Ohio State are a combined now 51-99 SU in the NFL (10 total QBs). The most wins SU in a single season by any Ohio State QB is now 10, set by Stroud over the 5 by Kent Graham, done twice. Only one other OSU QB is over .500 SU for his NFL career. Craig Krenzel, at 3-2 SU.
  == Stroud becomes just the 16th full-time starting rookie QB to make the playoffs in the Super Bowl Era & the 1st ever from Ohio State. Only other Ohio State QB to win an NFL playoff game: Mike Tomczak, who was undrafted and won playoff games in 1988, 1990 & 1996.

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Ravens

• Team status: 13-4 SU, 11-6 ATS.

Over win total of 10.5. Clinched 1 seed and home field through playoffs.
Ravens are tied for 2nd-best ATS record this season with Browns and Bucs. Lions are first at 12-5.
Best ATS season for Ravens since finishing 12-4 ATS in 2008.
+ Ravens' blown leads …
This Season: Blew leads in three of their four losses, including two double-digit leads
Since 2022: Six losses with a double-digit lead – T-most in NFL with Bears, Chargers and Raiders.
Since 2021 Season: Eight losses with a double-digit lead – T-most in NFL with Bears. No other team has more than six.
+ Teams with a bye in the playoffs are cashing at a 46% ATS rate last 20 years – when they are favored, 36-54-1 ATS (40%).
+ The trend of playing unders in games with 10+ MPH winds continues to cash.
Under 29-11-1 (73%) and 78-33-1 (70%) last two seasons.
Going under the total by 3.5 PPG.
+ Jackson is 28-10 SU and 15-23 ATS as a home favorite. Of 220 QBs over the last 20 years, he is ranked 213th ATS as a home favorite.
He’s just 12-18 ATS playing a home game at 1P ET
+ Lamar as 7 point favorite or higher: 26-5 SU. He’s 17-3 SU at home, 9-2 SU on road.
+ Over the past three seasons, Lamar Jackson is a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog but 14-19 ATS as a favorite, including 6-16 ATS when favored by more than 3 points.
+ Jackson is 22-6 ATS as a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog. In all other spots he is 22-31 ATS career.
+ Jackson covers the 1H spread on the road/neutral, he’s 29-10-1 1H ATS and 22-18-1 1H ATS at home.
+ The duo of Lamar Jackson and John Harbaugh are now 51-28-2 (64.6%) against the first half spread with the Ravens — best mark since 2005.
+ When Lamar faces team under .500 SU, he’s 28-4 SU, 16-16 ATS.
He’s 22-13 SU and 22-13 ATS when facing team above .500 SU
+ DeMeco Ryans faced Lamar Jackson in Week 1 earlier this season and lost 25-9 in Baltimore.
In Lamar Jackson’s 81 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 41 times – he is 35-6 SU (85.4%), 22-19 ATS in those games. When he faces that coach again (second time or later), he is 24-16 SU and 22-18 ATS.
+ Ravens are the first team in NFL history to lead the league in takeaways (31), points allowed per game (16.5) and sacks (60).
+ Lamar Jackson Regular Season
SU/ATS: 58-19 SU, 43-34 ATS
Home/Away: 30-9 SU, 18-21 ATS at home. 28-10 SU, 25-13 ATS on road/neutral
Favorite/Dog: 49-15 SU, 31-33 ATS as favorite. 9-4 SU, 12-1 ATS as dog.
+ Lamar Jackson is 1-3 SU//ATS in the playoffs. In 2019 when he was awarded the MVP they lost as 10-pt favorites vs. the Titans in their first playoff game.
+ Lamar Jackson Playoffs
1-3 SU/ATS
Home/Away: 0-2 SU/ATS at home. 1-1 SU/ATS on road/neutral.
Favorite/Dog: 1-2 SU/ATS as a favorite. 0-1 SU/ATS as an underdog.
+ John Harbaugh regular season (career)
SU/ATS: 160-99 SU, 132-119-8 ATS
Home/Away: 93-37 SU, 62-66-2 ATS at home. 67-62 SU, 70-53-6 ATS on road/neutral
Favorite/Dog: 130-49 SU, 86-88-5 ATS as favorite. 30-50 SU, 46-31-3 ATS as dog.
+ John Harbaugh playoffs (career)
11-9 SU, 13-7 ATS
Home/Away: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS at home. 9-7 SU, 12-4 ATS on road/neutral.
Favorite/Dog: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS as a favorite. 6-7 SU, 9-4 ATS as an underdog.
+ Ravens TE Mark Andrews is supposed to return for Baltimore’s Divisional playoff game.
Ravens are 58-34 SU when Andrews gets at least one target in a game. Baltimore is actually 9-3 SU without Andrews since he joined the team.
Ravens are 6-1 SU without Andrews this season (lost to Steelers).
+ Ravens are 11-4-2 on the first quarter moneyline this season and they are 20-10-5 1Q ML last two seasons. Their 11 1Q ML wins is T-2nd-most in NFL this year behind Cowboys.
Ravens 1H ATS this season: 14-3, best in the NFL
+ The Ravens currently have a 75%+ win pct entering their Divisional Round game this week. In the last 20 years, teams with 75%+ win pct in the playoffs are just 25-35-1 ATS (41.7%) when facing a team with a worse win pct.
+ Harbaugh is 20 games over .500 ATS as an underdog and 1 games under .500 ATS as a favorite.
+ Harbaugh, Ravens are 3-0 ATS after a loss this season and 15-8 ATS after a loss since 2020.
+ Harbaugh is 160-109-9 1H ATS with $100 bettor up $4,239, most of any coach in NFL since 2005.
With Lamar Jackson & Joe Flacco, Harbaugh is 147-102-9 1H ATS.
+ John Harbaugh with extra time to prepare:
10+ days: 26-8 SU, 19-13-2 ATS
Week 1: 12-4 SU/ATS
Combined: 38-12 SU, 31-17-2 ATS
+ Lamar off a bye: 5-2 SU, 1-6 ATS (12+ days rest, incl. playoffs)
Least profitable QBs off a bye last 20 years
172. Carson Palmer 3-9 ATS, 171. Cam Newton: 4-9 ATS, 170. P. Rivers: 6-11 ATS, 169. Lamar 1-6 ATS
With an ATS loss vs. LAR, he would be fourth-worst last 20 years
+ Harbaugh off a bye: 14+ days
Harbaugh: 11-7 ATS
Lamar: 1-4 ATS (excluding week 1)
+ Lamar, Harbaugh 1H ATS on extended rest (excluding week 1)
Lamar: 9-6 ATS
Harbaugh: 33-20-2 ATS (2nd-best of 135 coaches since 2005 behind just Dan Campbell)
+ Lamar Jackson, who was a first-team selection in 2019 when he won the NFL MVP, also got the nod this season after passing for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns and also running for 821 yards and scoring five times on the ground. He finished the season as a -20000 favorite to win MVP. How has the MVP historically fared in the playoffs?
Won Super Bowl: 11
Lost Super Bowl: 15
Conference Champ: 9
Divisional Round: 13
Wild Card: 3
Lost first playoff game: 16
Last NFL MVPs to win a Super Bowl? Patrick Mahomes last season | Kurt Warner in 1999
+ When Ravens are off a bye and their opponent is not…
Lamar: 7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS
Harbaugh: 20-8 SU, 13-14-1 ATS
+ Ravens vs. teams entering 3+ game above .500 SU this season
Dolphins, WK17: W, 56-19
49ers, WK16: W, 33-19
Jaguars, WK15: W, 23-7
Seahawks, WK9: 37-3
Lions, WK7: 38-6
———————–
Combined: 187-54 (5-0 SU/ATS)
+ Least time spent trailing in the first 10 games of a season, last 40 years:
1984 Dolphins: 14:46 (started 10-0) (L in SB)
1998 Broncos: 27:07 (started 10-0) (W SB)
2023 Ravens: 28:46 (7-3)
1990 Giants: 43:42 (started 10-0) (W SB)
2007 Patriots: 51:03 (started 10-0) (L in SB)
+ Ravens have trailed entering the 4th quarter just once this season against the Rams, breaking their streak of 12 straight games to begin the season. That is tied for the fewest games trailing entering the 4th quarter in a season in the Wild Card era (1990).
2023 Ravens
2010 Packers (W SB)
2004 Patriots (W SB)
1992 Saints (L WC)
1992 Cowboys (W SB)
1991 Saints (L WC)

Most Consecutive Games Entering Fourth Quarter With Lead To Begin Season
16, 1998 MIN, 15-1 (L CC)
13, 2011 GB, 15-1 (L DIV)
12, 2023 BAL, 8-3
12, 1998 DEN, 14-2 (W SB)
10, 1984 MIA, 14-2 (L SB)

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Packers at 49ers | Saturday, Jan. 20

8:15pm ET | FOX

SF -10 | 50.5

Packers

• Team status: 10-8 SU, 10-8 ATS.

• Packers were plus money (+165) to make the playoffs in the preseason for the first time since 2009 (+100) – they made the playoffs that season and this season.
• Packers were +6600 win Super Bowl in the preseason, their longest odds since being listed at 100-1 in 2006. Their win total of 7.5 was their lowest since 2007 (won 13 games).
• Packers just became the first 7 seed to win a playoff game. The previous 7 were 0-7 SU.
  6 and 7 seeds are 16-14-1 ATS in the Divisional Round or later since the 2004 season
• Packers history in playoffs vs. 49ers:
  Last 20 years, the Packers have faced the 49ers four times in the playoffs, they are 0-4 SU, 0-3-1 ATS
• Packers are 7-6-1 SU and 8-5 ATS this season. That is one win away for tying the record for most straight up underdog wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era, including playoffs.
  2022 – Jaguars, 8 (8-6 SU)
  2021 – Raiders, 8 (8-5 SU)
  2015 – Washington, 8 (8-6 SU)
  2007 – Giants, 8 (8-2 SU)
  2006 – Saints, 8 (8-4 SU)
  2001 – Patriots 8, (8-4 SU)
  (2023 – Packers, 7 (7-6-1 SU))
• Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 27-13 ATS (68%) in the Divisional Round over the last 20 years. Those same teams are 38-41-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
  GB, HOU
• Packers travel west to face the 49ers in San Francisco this week.
  Teams to travel from EST or CST to PST to play on the road on short rest for a playoff game are 3-7 SU, 3-6-1 ATS last 20 years, including 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS since 2006.
• LaFleur is 20-11 SU, 19-12 ATS in his career at night – over the last 20 years, that 19-12 ATS mark is 9th-best of any head coach (9 of 139).
  He is the 3rd-best coach ATS at night since 2019, behind Frank Reich and Sean McVay
• Jordan Love in night games: 2-3 SU/ATS
• LaFleur is 52-37 ATS in his career as Packers coach.
• LaFleur has excelled as an underdog. He is 21-10 ATS as a ‘dog — 12-5 with Rodgers and 9-5 with Jordan Love. As a favorite, LaFleur is 31-27 ATS.
• LaFleur is now 18-2 SU, 11-9 ATS in December games.
  LaFleur is 41-28 SU in all other months. In January, LaFleur is just 7-5 SU.
• How do teams perform on short rest in the playoffs.
  Teams on short rest in the playoffs, facing a team who is not in the same position are 5-12 SU and 7-10 ATS over the last 20 years. This weekend that is the Packers, Bucs and Bills.
• Packers playoff runs without being at Lambeau Field in their history.
  2015-16: L in Divisional
  2010-11: All 3 road to SB and won == Beat NFC East (PHI), Beat No. 1 seed (ATL), Traveled to NFC North team (CHI)
  1993-94: L in Divisional
• After teams beat Cowboys in playoffs: 5-9 SU, 8-6 ATS
  After they beat Cowboys on road in playoffs: 1-3 SU/ATS
• Jordan Love can beat the Cowboys and 49ers in b2b weeks in the playoffs.
  No team has defeated both the Cowboys and 49ers in a single playoff campaign.
• Love is 5-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU and 4-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU
• Love is the lone QB in NFC without playoff experience – 3 in AFC don’t. Tua, Rudolph, Stroud.
• Jordan Love finishes the regular season with 4,159 passing yards. That would be a franchise record for the: Bears, Browns, Jets and Eagles
• Most Games with 2+ Pass TD and 0 INT This Season: 10 – Love
  Record for a season is 13 such games by Aaron Rodgers in 2021 (he also has 2nd and 3rd record with 12).
  QBs to have 10+ such games in a year: Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan.
• If Packers advance: Teams after playing the 49ers: Since 2021, teams are 17-36 SU, 20-31-2 ATS after facing the 49ers
• Jordan Love is 4-6 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 5-2 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
• Fewest games favored in season for Packers since 1990
  2 – 1991 (0-2 ATS)
  3 – 1992 (2-1 ATS)
  5 – 2023 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2006 (2-3 ATS)
  5 – 2005 (1-3-1 ATS)
• Jordan Love has been streaky has an NFL QB.
  Started 4-0 ATS, 7-8 ATS since.
  Love has closed as a favorite five times in his 19 start career (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).
  Love has covered 5 straight games as an underdog
• Jordan Love 1st half of season vs. 2nd half.
  1st half (Wk 1-10): 16th EPA/play, 25th success rate, 38th completion%
  2nd half (Wk 11 on): 2nd EPA/play, 3rd success rate, 3rd completion%
• Packers have been underdogs of 7 or more just four times since 2020. They are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS, covering the spread by 10 PPG with 3 of those games with Jordan Love.
• Packers were the only higher seed to advance out of Wild Card weekend. Here is how teams perform in rest of playoffs when they are the only higher seed to advance out of the Wild Card round since 1990. 11 lost the next week. 3 made Conference Championship, all losing in that round.
  2021-22 SF, No. 6 seed. Won one more, L CC
  2014-15 BAL, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  2012-13 SEA, No. 5 seed Lost next week, DIV
  2003-04 TEN, No. 5 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  2002-03 ATL, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  2001-02 BAL, No. 5 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  1999-00 MIA, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  1998-99 ARI, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  1997-98 MIN, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  1996-97 JAC, No. 5 seed. Won one more, L CC
  1995-96 IND, No. 5 seed. Won one more, L CC
  1994-95 CHI, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  1993-94 GB, No. 6 seed. Lost next week, DIV
  1990-91 WAS, No. 5 seed. Lost next week, DIV
• The Packers were the fifth youngest playoff team since the merger in 1970, and youth is volatile and unpredictable. They are youngest playoff team since 1977 Bears.
  The average age of the Packers players is 25.68. They are the youngest team since the 1970 merger to win a playoff game.
• Teams to win as 6 pt dogs or higher the previous week and are 6+ pt dogs again the next week. They are 8-8 ATS in playoffs last 20 years, but just 3-13 SU. The wins: Ravens 2013 .. Giants 2008 (x2).
• Packers special teams are terrible and rank 31st by DVOA, especially bad on punts.
• Largest underdog for Packers in a playoff game: Last 20 years, Packers have been underdogs of more than 6 points, five times. 1-4 SU, 3-2 ATS
  +9.5 vs 49ers currently
  +8.5 vs Seahawks in 2018: L, 28-22
  +8 vs 49ers in 2020: L, 37-20
  +7 vs Cowboys in 2023: W, 48-32
  +7 vs Cardinals in 2016: L, 26-20
  +6.5 vs Falcons in 2017: L, 44-21
• Packers QBs in first playoff start.
  Bart Starr 1960: Lost at PHI
  Scott Hunter 1972: Lost at WAS
  Lynn Dickey 1983: Won vs. STL
  Brett Favre 1994: Won at DET
  Aaron Rodgers 2010: Lost at ARI
  Jordan Love 2023: Won at DAL
• LaFleur home, road in his career.
  Home: 34-10 SU, 28-16 ATS
  Road: 25-18 SU, 24-19 ATS
• LaFleur in primetime games with Packers – night, international, playoffs, etc .. standalone – is 24-13 SU, 22-15 ATS
• 49ers sack the opposing QB at a rate of 4.5% this season (The opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense).
  When Love faces teams at a rate of 4.5% or higher, he is 3-0 SU/ATS, all as underdogs.
• With a win against the 49ers, Green Bay would have their most SU wins in a season with their 4th-longest odds in the last 40 years.
  Longest Packers Odds Win Super Bowl Last 40 Years (Wins)
  200-1: 1989 (10)
  100-1: 2006 (8)
  75-1: 1988 (4)
  66-1: 2023 (10)
  60-1: 1992 (9)
• Jordan Love making betting history.
  Love was 3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS in his four NFL starts, covering the spread by 6 PPG.
  Thirteen QBs have made their first four career starts with the Packers and none had started 4-0 ATS.

Lost 9 QBs vs. Packers:
QBs vs…
Dak Prescott: 41-60, 403, 3-2
Just Fields: 11-16, 148 0-0
Nick Mullens/Jaren Hall: 18-32, 180 1-1
Bryce Young: 23-36, 312 2-0
Baker Mayfield: 22-28, 381 4-0
Tommy DeVito: 17-21 158 1-0
Patrick Mahomes: 21-33 210 1-1
Jared Goff: 29-44 332 2-0
Justin Herbert: 21-36 260 2-0
16 TD, 4 INT

• Much has been made about the Packers success without Aaron Rodgers this year. Here is a comparison to other teams after star QBs left and how they did the year after: Top-10 most wins all-time.
  Of 11 QBs, ten won at least six games the next year. The one that didn’t was Colts in 2011 who went 2-14 SU, but they went 11-5 SU the following year with Andrew Luck.
  Of 11 QBs, only two made the playoffs. 2023 Packers and 2000 Dolphins after Dan Marino. They won WC game and lost in the Divisional.

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49ers

• Team status: 12-5 SU, 9-8 ATS.

Over win total of 10.5. Niners were one of two teams with double-digit win total who were over entering Week 18, with the Ravens. Bills, Ravens and 49ers are the 3 teams to go over their double-digit win total this season.
SF is over their win total in consecutive years for first time since 2011-13.
+ Teams with a bye in the playoffs are cashing at a 46% ATS rate last 20 years – when they are favored, 36-54-1 ATS (40%).
+ With the Chiefs listed as underdogs in Week 18, the 49ers will be favored in all 17 games this season – the only team across the NFL.
Since 1980, San Francisco will be the 21st team to be favorites in all of their regular season games.
+ Six won the Super Bowl — 2018 NE, 1998 DEN, 1995 DAL, 1994 SF, 1991 WAS, 1984 SF
+ 10 made the Super Bowl (four lost)
+ 14 made their Conference title game (four lost)
+ Of the 21 teams, six lost in the Divisional Round or earlier
+ These teams avg 1.7 playoff wins campaign
+ 49ers have dominated their opponents in wins.
1. 49ers now have nine wins of 16 or more points this season (T-most this year with Cowboys).
Only seven teams have won nine or more games by at least 16 points during a regular season in Super Bowl era: 2023 SF, 2023 DAL (L DIV), 2013 DEN (L SB), 2007 NE (L SB), 1999 STL (W SB), 1968 DAL (L DIV), 1968 BAL (L SB)
Only 2023 and 1968 DAL failed to win a playoff game.
2. 49ers have eleven wins of 10+ points this season – most in the NFL.
Most 10+ point wins in season in Super Bowl era: 13, 1999 STL | 12, 1998 MIN & 2007 NE | 11, 7 different teams
Of the 10 teams to win 11+ games of 10+ points in the Super Bowl era, 8 won a playoff game (1968 DAL didn’t), 6 made the Super Bowl and 4 won it.
1999 STL (W SB, 3), 1998 MIN (L CC, 1), 2007 NE (L SB, 2), 1968 DAL (L DIV, 0), 1968 BAL (L SB, 2), 1972 MIA (W SB, 3) 1985 CHI (W SB, 3), 1996 GB (W SB, 3), 2021 BUF (L DIV, 1), 2023 SF
+ The 49ers replaced the Dolphins in the yards/play race a few weeks ago and held the lead through the end of the regular season.
Highest YPP, Single Season
2000 STL: 6.98, 2018 KC: 6.84, 2011 NO: 6.69, 2004 IND: 6.69, 2016 ATL: 6.69, 2001 STL: 6.64, 2023 SF: 6.61, 1982 SD: 6.56, 2011 GB: 6.56
Dolphins at 6.48 this season.
+ When their stars are healthy. When Deebo and CMC are starting, 49ers are 20-3 SU, 16-7 ATS
+ In December or later, 49ers are 12-6 ATS at home the last five years, but they are 0-3 ATS in that spot this season.
+ 49ers are first team in history with 1 RB, 2 WR and 1 TE with 1,000+ yards with CMC, Kittle, Deebo and Aiyuk
+ Purdy is 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS at home, just 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS on road.
+ In games Christian McCaffrey has started since last season, the 49ers are 24-5 SU, 19-10 ATS. In those 29 games, McCaffrey has 34 total TDs.
+ 49ers record this season SU, ATS
Home: 5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS
Road: 7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS
+ Christian McCaffrey playoff career:
4 GP, 46 car for 254 yds, 18 rec for 162 yds, 2 rush TDs
+ McCaffrey is -340 to score an anytime TD this week.
9 players were listed at minus odds to score in the Wild Card round and they went 5-4 for scoring. CeeDee Lamb was the highest priced player at -175.
Shortest Closing Odds To Score an Anytime TD — Last 3 Seasons via @GDAWG5000
-340: CMC (Div, 2024)
-340: CMC (WK17, 2023) ❌
-340: CMC (WK14, 2023) ❌
-320: CMC (WK15, 2023) ✅
-300: J. Taylor (WK18, 2021) ❌
+ Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 0-39 when trailing by 8 or more points in the 4th quarter.
+ Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 1-33 SU when trailing by more than 10 points in the second half. The only win came in Week 18 of 2021 season when they trailed Rams 17-3 and won 27-24 in OT.
+ Under Kyle Shanahan, the 49ers are 4-35 SU, 2-37 ATS when trailing by 3 points or more entering the 4th quarter.
+ Purdy in October or later at Iowa State and with 49ers: 25-12 SU at Iowa St and 16-5 SU with the 49ers (41-17 SU)
+ Kyle Shanahan vs NFC West: 24-19-1 ATS | vs. non-divisional opp: 42-38 ATS
+ Most profitable 49ers QB ATS last 20 years: Garoppolo 35-25-1 ATS, Shaun Hill 12-4 ATS, Purdy 15-9 ATS
+ Brock Purdy has 4,280 passing yards on just 444 passes this year.
He's averaging 9.9 yards per attempt, is tied for the highest for any QB, min. 100 att, since 1966 with Kurt Warner in 2000 (9.9).
+ Brock Purdy regular season
SU, ATS: 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS
Home/Road: 8-2 SU, 6-4 at home. 9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS on road
Never been a dog in his 21 regular season starts. 17-4 SU, 13-8 ATS as a favorite.
+ Brock Purdy playoffs
SU, ATS: 2-1 SU/ATS
Home/Road: 2-0 SU/ATS at home. 0-1 SU/ATS on road
Favorite/Dog: 2-0 SU/ATS as favorite. 0-1 SU/ATS as dog.
+ Kyle Shanahan regular season (career)
SU/ATS: 64-51 SU, 59-55-1 ATS
Home/Away: 31-23 SU, 24-29-1 ATS at home. 33-28 SU, 35-26 ATS on road/neutral
Favorite/Dog: 46-25 SU, 33-37-1 ATS as favorite. 18-26 SU, 26-18 ATS as dog.
+ Kyle Shanahan playoffs (career)
6-3 SU, 7-2 ATS
Home/Away: 4-0 SU/ATS at home. 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS on road/neutral.
Favorite/Dog: 4-0 SU/ATS as a favorite. 2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS as an underdog.
+ 49ers are 2-2 SU/ATS off a loss this season and are just 9-6 ATS in that spot last three seasons.
Shanahan is 24-23-1 ATS off of a SU loss, just 8-11-1 ATS off a SU loss as a favorite
+ 49ers after scoring fewer than 20 pts under Shanahan: 21-15 ATS – just 2-3 ATS this season.
+ After a Shanahan, 49ers team faces an NFC West opponent, San Francisco is 26-12-1 ATS in their next game.
Best coaches ATS off div game last 20 years: Belichick, Reid, Harbaugh, LaFleur, Shanahan
+ Kyle Shanahan with extra time to prepare:
10+ days: 8-8 SU/ATS
Week 1: 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS
Combined: 11-12 SU, 10-13 ATS
+ Purdy off a bye: 1-0 SU/ATS (12+ days rest, incl. playoffs)
+ Shanahan off a bye: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS
+ Shanahan 1H ATS on extended rest: 8-7-1 ATS
+ Shanahan off extended rest and their opponent is not: 6-5 ATS

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Buccaneers at Lions | Sunday, Jan. 21

3:00pm ET | NBC

DET -6 | 49.5

Buccaneers

• Texans: 200-1
• Bucs: 100-1

Both Houston & Tampa had 100-1 or higher odds to win the Super Bowl in the preseason and are now in the Divisional Round.

It's the 3rd time since 1978 (Wild Card format) we've had two 100-1 or higher teams in the Divisional Round (2022, 1987).

• • Bucs-Lions is a rematch of their Week 6 game this season. Lions beat the Bucs 20-6. Goff had 2 TD, 0 INT and 353 passing yards.
  • O/U's of 50+ are 29-13 (69%) to the 𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫 in the last two seasons overall.

• • Team status: 10-8 SU, 12-6 ATS. Over win total of 6.5.

• • Bucs have now won the NFC South three years in a row.
    Bucs odds to win division in preseason by year.
    2021: -220 | 2022: -250 | 2023: +750
  • Bucs are above .500 SU on the season. They’ve had a 4-game win streak and a 4-game losing streak and won the division with a win in the final week over CAR.
  • Buccaneers were tied for the 4th-worst Super Bowl odds of any team at 100-1 entering the season and now they join the Texans (200-1) as the two longshots left in the field.
    They are the 30th and 31st teams to enter the playoffs with 100-1 odds or higher entering the season since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978.
    1 Won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
    1 Lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
    3 Lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
    8 Lost in Divisional
    16 Lost in Wild Card
  • Baker Mayfield regular season
    SU, ATS: 40-46 SU, 38-47-1 ATS
    Home/Road: 24-17 SU, 15-25-1 at home. 16-29 SU, 23-22 ATS on road
    Favorite/Dog: 25-16 SU, 14-26-1 ATS as favorite. 15-30 SU, 24-21 ATS as dog.
  • Baker Mayfield playoffs
    SU, ATS: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS
    Home/Road: 1-0 SU/ATS, 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on road
    Favorite/Dog: 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS as dog.
  • Bucs are 6-6 SU and 9-3 ATS as underdogs this season, they were 0-4 ATS as underdogs last season.
    Best ATS Season as Underdogs Last 20 Years (incl. playoffs)
    2012 Rams 11-3 ATS (+$756) == Missed playoffs
    2022 Giants 11-2 ATS (+$709) == L, Divisional
    2007 Giants 9-2 ATS (+$700) == Won Super Bowl
    2006 Titans 10-3 ATS (+$675) == Missed playoffs
    2004 Chargers 8-1-1 ATS (+$641) == L, Wild Card
    2006 Saints 9-3 ATS (+$604) == L, Conf Champ
    (2023 Bucs 9-3 ATS (+$525) == XXX)
  • Baker Mayfield is 27-21 ATS as an underdog and 14-26-1 ATS as a favorite
    Baker 27-21 ATS as a dog, covered 4 in a row as dog, incl. 7-1 ATS last 8
  • Baker had been an under machine since start of last year, 19-9 in that span, including 16-7 in his last 23 starts.
    He and the Bucs had hit 4 straight overs averaging 25.25 over that stretch but reverted back to 3-straight unders to close out the regular season
  • How do teams perform on short rest in the playoffs.
    Teams on short rest in the playoffs, facing a team who is not in the same position are 5-12 SU and 7-10 ATS over the last 20 years. This weekend that is the Packers, Bucs and Bills.
  • Bucs home vs. road SU, ATS this season:
    Home: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS
    Away: 5-4 SU, 8-1 ATS
  • Baker is 16-25-1 ATS at home in his career. He’s never finished a season above .500 ATS at home – He’s ranked 118th of 120 QBs since he entered the league.
    Baker on the road: 17-30 SU, 25-22 ATS

• Baker Mayfield is 41-47-1 ATS since being drafted No. 1 overall by the Browns in 2018, losing a $100 bettor $829 (266th of 284 QBs in the last 20 years).
• After Baker wins his last game by 8+ pts: 8-17 SU, 12-13 ATS
• Baker is 9-10 ATS last 3 seasons off SU win. He doesn’t do the streak thing.
• Bowles career as a coach: 44-59 SU, 46-52-5 ATS
  As a favorite: 26-17 SU, 19-22-2 ATS
  As an underdog: 18-42 SU, 27-30-3 ATS
• Baker-Browns connection.
  Baker Mayfield picked up his 2nd playoff win this past weekend against the Eagles.
  The Browns have won 1 playoff game since 1995 – won by Baker Mayfield.
• After Baker winning his last game by double-digits: 7-13 SU, 10-10 ATS.
  Lost 7 of last 8 in this spot straight up
• Baker on a winning streak: 9-9 ATS career and 2-2 ATS with the Bucs
• Bucs and Baker upset the Eagles last week. Can they win again? Baker has played 19 career games off of a SU win as an underdog, his teams are 6-12 SU and 8-10 ATS in their next game after pulling the upset.
• Short rest hasn’t been too bad to Baker. Mayfield is 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS in his career on short rest.
  He’s covered 5 in a row in this spot.
• The Buccaneers are the 2nd team since 1990 to have a bottom-10 total offense and defense and still reach the divisional round. Other was the 2010 Seahawks that lost in the Divisional Round to the Bears.
• This will be Mayfield’s 11th career game on short rest. He’s 6-4 SU, 7-3 ATS, including 5-1 ATS as an underdog.
• Bucs had the longest ATS road losing streak in the NFL entering the season (6 games) They then covered 5 straight road games to begin the season before failing to cover at IND
  Bucs are the best team ATS on the road this season at 8-1, +$630 for a $100 bettor
  Bucs haven’t started 5-0 ATS on the road since 2012 (TB started 6-0 ATS on road)
  Bucs are now 8-1 ATS on the road
• Bowles in his career as a head coach was horrible straight up as a dog entering this year. With Baker, he’s got six straight up wins as a dog.
  2023: 6-6 SU
  2022: 0-4 SU
  2018: 3-10 SU
  2017: 4-11 SU
  2016: 3-9 SU
• Todd Bowles can’t stop the bleeding. After a loss, he’s 21-34 SU in his next game, ranked 142nd of 149 coaches last 20 years. He is 22-31-2 ATS in that spot, including 5-11-1 ATS with the Bucs.
  Bowles after a SU win: 19-23 SU, 20-19-3 ATS
• Todd Bowles’ one postseason game as coach: 1-1 SU/ATS, loss to Cowboys last season, win vs Eagles in 2024
• Mike Evans and Chris Godwin playoff careers.
  Evans: 8 games, 4 TD career. He has 37 rec, 562 rec yds
  Godwin: 6 games, 2 TD career. He has 30 rec, 362 rec yds in his career. In playoff game last year, he had 13 targets, 10 rec, 85 yds.
• The Year After Tom Brady
  = In 2023, Bucs went 9-8. Over 6.5 win total. Won division.
  = In 2020, Patriots went 7-9. Under 9 win total. Missed playoffs.
• Entering this season, Baker Mayfield became the 5th QB to start Week 1 for three different teams in consecutive years.
  The only QB of the 5 aside from Baker to make the playoffs after that first stint? Brett Favre with the Vikings in 2009. Won one playoff game and lost in the Conference Championship.

Most Consecutive Week 1 Starts by QB – Diff Team NFL History
2021-23 Baker Mayfield, 3 (CLE, CAR, TB) – Miss, Miss, Playoffs (W1)
2020-22 Carson Wentz, 3 (PHI, IND, WAS) – Miss, Miss, Miss
2009-11 Donovan McNabb, 3 (PHI, WAS, MIN) – WC, Miss, Miss
2007-09 Brett Favre, 3 (GB, NYJ, MIN) – Conf (W1), Miss, Conf (W1)
2003-05 Kurt Warner, 3 (STL, NYG, ARI) – Div (0), Miss, Miss

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Lions

• Team status: 13-5 SU, 12-6 ATS

Over win total of 9.5. Detroit hasn’t won ten games since 2014 and they’ve now gone over their win total in consecutive seasons for first time since 2016-17.
The last time Detroit went over their win total by 2+ games in b2b years was 1999-00. They did that with a win in week 18.
+ Lions have broken the streak. Prior to the win over the Rams they had lost 9 straight postseason games. Their last win came back in 1992 at home against the Cowboys.
+ This is just the second time in Lions franchise history that they have been favorites in the playoffs in consecutive games. It last happened for them in 1952 against the L.A. Rams and then in Cleveland against the Browns.
If the Lions close above a 3.5-point favorite, it will be their biggest line as a favorite in a playoff game in franchise history
+ Lions historically as favorites in the playoffs.
Since 1960, Lions have been favorites in the playoffs five times. They are 2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS, with their line cover coming at home on Jan. 5, 1992 against the Cowboys, 38-6 as a 1-pt favorite.
+ In the last 20 years, the Lions have been favored by 6 pts or more vs. a team above .500 SU just twice. They are 0-2 SU/ATS, with their last such game coming in 2012.
+ Most receiving TDs, rookie TEs, incl. playoffs
12 Mike Ditka, 1961
11 Sam LaPorta, 2023
10 Rob Gronkowski, 2010
+ Lions are 24-11 ATS since the start of last season, most profitable team ATS in the NFL ($1,085).
Lions have 10 ATS wins in three straight seasons (12-6 ATS this year). Prior to this stretch, Lions had one 10-win ATS season (2010) since 1995.
Lions are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 games overall.
+ Lions are 35-17 ATS (67.3%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,482.
This is the best 3-yr stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252
Lions are 21-7 ATS last 28 games, best in NFL since Nov. 1, 2022
+ Lions and Packers advancing to the Divisional Round in the same playoffs for the first time in history.
+ Overs in dome games in the playoffs: Last 20 years, dome games are 33-18 to the over
Recent streak: 4-1 in last five, 10 straight unders prior to that.
+ Lions O/U this season: 11-7 to over
At home: 6-3 over | On road: 5-4 over
+ After Lions go under at home, and play at home again, O/U result.
Lions under Dan Campbell are 8-5 to the under, gone under in six straight games.
+ After a team wins by 1-3 pts at home in the playoffs how do they perform in their next game? 11-22 SU, 14-19 ATS in last 20 years
When that next game is also at home: 4-10 SU/ATS
+ Lions defense has been torched the last 4 games…
Vs. LAR: Stafford 25-36, 367, 2-0 (Puka 9-181-1)
Vs. MIN: Mullens 30-44, 396, 2-2 (JJ 12-192-1)
Vs. DAL: Dak 26-38, 345, 2-1 (Lamb 13-227-1)
Vs. MIN: Mullens 22-36, 411, 2-4 (JJ 6-141-1)
+ Lions defense has allowed 200+ team pass yds in 5 straight games – 3rd-longest active streak in NFL (WAS, DEN).
+ Dan Campbell 39-25 ATS (60.9%) career. Of ​​115 NFL coaches that have had 50+ games experience under their belt since 1990, Dan Campbell has the 2nd-best ATS win pct of all of them (first is Brian Daboll at 22-13-1 ATS).
+ Goff and Campbell vs. teams scoring over 21 PPG: 12-8 SU, 16-4 ATS
+ Since 2021, Goff is 14-5 ATS vs. above .500 SU opponents – second-best mark in the NFL, behind Joe Burrow.
+ Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor.
Indoor: 35-17 ATS (25-9 ATS last 3 seasons)
67% comp %, 75 TD, 24 INT (3.1 TD/INT)
Outdoor: 34-35-2 ATS (25-20-1 ATS in Nov or earlier | 9-15-1 ATS in Dec/Jan)
62% comp %, 97 TD, 52 INT (1.9 TD/INT)
+ Goff is 25-9-1 against the first half spread over the last two seasons, best mark of any QB in the NFL.
+ Goff is most profitable QB ATS over last 5 years (51-29-1 ATS, +$1,816).
+ Goff vs. teams above .500 SU with Lions: 11-7-1 SU, 14-5 ATS | at home: 7-3 SU/ATS
Vs. teams below .500 SU: 10-11 SU, 11-10 ATS
+ Goff is 22-11 ATS at home since 2020, most profitable QB in the NFL ($933)
Goff on the road since 2020: 19-13 ATS
+ Goff went 383 pass attempts without an interception before throwing one in Week 2 – the 3rd-longest streak in NFL history behind Aaron Rodgers (402) and Tom Brady (399).
In 2023, he is -0.88 units betting his yes INT prop.
If you bet on Goff to throw an INT in every game last season, you would have been down 7.3U (most of any QB).
+ Lions are 35-17 ATS (67.3%) over the last three seasons – best mark in the NFL, profiting a $100 bettor +$1,482.
This is the best 3-yr stretch ATS for any team since the Patriots between 2016-18, going 40-17 ATS, for +$2,252
+ Most profitable Lions QBs ATS last 20 years
Goff 33-16 ATS, 2. Dan Orlovsky 6-1 ATS, 3. Joey Harrington 24-18-1 ATS
+ Most profitable QB against the spread…
+ Since 2022: Jared Goff (24-11 ATS)
+ Since 2021: Jared Goff (33-16 ATS)
+ Since 2020: Jared Goff (41-24 ATS)
+ Since 2019: Jared Goff (51-29-1 ATS)
+ Since 2018: Jared Goff (60-38-2 ATS)
+ Since 2017: Jared Goff (69-45-2 ATS)

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Packers at Cowboys | Sunday, Jan. 14

4:30pm ET | FOX

BUF -2.5 | 45.5

Chiefs

• Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes (3-3 SU, ATS)
  12/10/23: +1.5 Bills, Bills W 20-17
  10/16/22: -2.5 Bills, Bills W 24-20
  1/23/22: +2.5 Bills, Chiefs W 42-36
  10/10/21: +2.5 Bills, Bills W 38-20
  1/24/21: +3 Bills, Chiefs W 38-24
  10/19/20: +5.5 Bills, Chiefs W 26-17 (Only game played in Buffalo)
• Team status: 12-6 SU, 10-7-1 ATS.

Under win total of 11.5. KC was one of three teams with double-digit win total to be under their win total (CIN, PHI).
Chiefs are now 9-2 to their win total over in the last 11 years.
Andy Reid win total results with KC/PHI: 9-2 over w/ KC | 9-4-1 over w/ PHI (18-6-1 overall to over)
+ Chiefs have now won the AFC West 8 consecutive years – longest active division streak across four major sports – The longest run of division titles belongs to the New England Patriots with an 11-year streak from 2009 to 2019.
+ The Chiefs are looking to advance to their 6th consecutive Conference Championship game.
The Patriots own the longest streak of consecutive Conference Championship game appearances with 8 (2011-18). 1973-77 Raiders are only other team with five consecutive appearances. The NFC record is four by Cowboys (1970–73, 1992–95) and Eagles (2001-04).
+ Mahomes road playoff game. Faced TB in TB for SB, lost 31-9.
+2.5 vs BUF, 8-1-1 ATS as a dog, 7-3 SU
+ Mahomes vs BUF, 13 TD, 6 INT .. 3 TD-3 INT last two games 2 losses
35 rush att in 6 games (5.8) tick up than usual
+ In the last 20 years, Mahomes is the 3rd QB to be undefeated SU in the Divisional and Wild Card rounds (min 4 starts)
Patrick Mahomes: 7-0 SU
Mark Sanchez: 4-0 SU
Joe Burrow: 4-0 SU
Colin Kaepernick: 3-0 SU
Jimmy Garoppolo: 3-0 SU
(Brock Purdy: 2-0 SU)
+ Chiefs were the 7th preseason Super Bowl odds favorite to lose outright in Week 1 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the first to do since the Patriots in 2017.
6 of 7 still made playoffs (2002 Rams), two have made the SB (2017 NE, 1993 DAL) and one won it all (1993 DAL).
+ The Chiefs entered the regular season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +650.
In the Wild Card era, since 1990 – the preseason SB favorite has won title five times (18, 16 NE, 06 IND, 94 SF, 93 DAL).
11 times they lost in SB, 2 lost in CC, 7 in Div, 5 in WC, 3 missed playoffs
+ Mahomes in cold starts career.
Under 40 degrees: 26-6 SU, 19-12-1 ATS
Under 35 degrees: 15-4 SU, 13-6 ATS
32 degrees or colder: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS
Under 30 degrees: 7-3 SU/ATS
+ Chiefs defense in Mahomes’ career (EPA/play) – regular season + playoffs
2023: 4th | 2022: 15th | 2021: 24th | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 27th
+ Favored streak with Mahomes as QB. He was underdog in Super Bowl last year. Favored in other 14 starts.
In playoffs: 10-2 SU as a favorite in last 12
+ Chiefs second half unders have been the play…
Second half unders are 16-2 in KC games this year
4th quarter unders are 17-1 in KC games this year
+ Mahomes is 37-22-1 to the under in his home starts. 17-3 to the under at home over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.
Mahomes O/U in road starts: 32-19 to the over in road starts
+ Mahomes has played in 15 playoff games, 31 regular season night games, 1 morning game, 2 early Monday games, two Saturday games – a total of 51 “primetime” games. He is 37-14 SU, 28-22-1 ATS in those games.
+ Mahomes is 13-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side and 45-42-3 ATS when he is listed as the public side.
+ Mahomes starts by point spread
Favorite: 101 (50-49-2 ATS) | Dog: 10 (8-1-1 ATS)
Home: 28-29-1 ATS | Road/Neutral: 30-21-2 ATS
1p ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1p slate: 43-33-1 ATS
-10 or higher: 27 (11-14-2 ATS) | -9.5 or less/or dog: 84 (47-36-1 ATS)
-3 or less/or dog: 29 (20-8-1 ATS) | -3.5 or higher: 82 (38-42-2 ATS)
+ Mahomes regular season
SU, ATS: 74-22 SU, 48-45-3 ATS
Home/Road: 35-11 SU, 20-25-1 at home, 39-11 SU, 28-20-2 road/neutral
Favorite/Dog: 68-19 SU, 41-44-2 as favorite, 6-3 SU, 7-1-1 ATS as dog
Mahomes playoffs
SU, ATS: 12-3 SU, 10-5 ATS
Home/Road: 10-2 SU, 8-4 ATS at home. 2-1 SU/ATS neutral
Favorite/Dog: 11-3 SU, 9-5 ATS as favorite. 1-0 SU/ATS as dog.
+ Mahomes has only lost playoff games to Tom Brady and Joe Burrow.
+ Mahomes is 39-9 SU in November and December in his career (52-12 SU in Nov, Dec & Jan).
+ Opposing teams on a road trip going to Kansas City are 2-16 SU (11.7%) with Mahomes on the other side. Teams are 23-71 (25%) vs. Mahomes in all other spots.
+ Mahomes has had 39 passes dropped during the regular season, most of any QB in the NFL. He had 33 last year, 7th-most in the NFL.

• Kelce playoff stats.
  140 catches for 1,619 yards and 16 touchdowns in 19 games
  Already leads all tight ends in playoff yards, receptions, touchdowns and yards per game.
  Fifth all time in games played with 19
  Billy Joe Dupree, Pete Metzelaars and Gronk tied for 1st at 22 followed by Brent Jones with 21
• NFL Postseason History
  Catches: 1 Jerry Rice: 151, 2 Kelce: 140
  Receiving Yards: 1 Jerry Rice: 2,245, 2 Kelce: 1,619
  Receiving TD: 1 Jerry Rice: 22, 2 Kelce: 16
• Kelce has 5+ receptions in 11 straight playoff games. The record is 13 by Julian Edelman.
• When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 pts this season, KC is 0-4 SU/ATS, against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles and Packers. KC is 12-2 SU, 10-3-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 pts or less.
• Chiefs are 8-10 against the 4th quarter spread this season and 22-36 4Q ATS the last three seasons.
• Between 2020-2022, Chiefs went 14-6 SU when trailing at the half. This year, the Chiefs are 1-4 SU when trailing at the half.
• Mahomes is 11-2 SU on at least 13 days rest in his career. His two losses? Super Bowl vs. Bucs and Eagles in November this season.
• The Chiefs enter the Divisional Round with a negative turnover differential average this season. When those teams are favored in the Divisional Round, they are 20-33 ATS over the last 20 years, but they are 30-16-1 ATS as an underdog.
• Mahomes career based on rest
  6 days or less: 13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS
  7 days: 44-14 SU, 29-27-2 ATS
  8+ days: 24-8 SU, 15-16-1 ATS
• Mahomes is just 10-16 ATS after a SU win dating back to 2022, the least profitable QB in the NFL
  Mahomes after a SU loss in his career: 19-4 SU, 13-9-1 ATS
• Road/neutral, Mahomes is 38-11 SU, 28-20-1 ATS in his career.
  He’s 28-7 SU as a road/neutral favorite of 3 pts or more.
  As a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog road/neutral, he’s 15-3-1 ATS
  As a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, he’s 20-8-1 ATS
• Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game vs. Bills.
  Mahomes is 24-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS on extended rest (8+ days)
  At home: 14-3 SU, 8-9 ATS | On road: 10-4 SU, 7-6-1 ATS
  Mahomes has lost two in a row SU in this spot for the first time in his career (LV, PHI both at home).
• Reid last 20 years on 8+ days rest: 58-27 SU, 47-37-1 ATS. When rest comes early, he does great.
  Sept-Oct: 22-9 ATS
  Nov on: 25-28-1 ATS
• Reid and Mahomes have been a dog on extended rest three times.
  2023 SB vs. PHI. Won 38-35
  2020 at BAL. Won 34-20
  2018 at LAR. Lost 54-51 (ATS push)
• On extended rest (8+ days), Reid & Chiefs are 21-5 SU since 2019. QBs to beat them since 2019: Brady, Matt Ryan, Rodgers, Goff, Hurts

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Bills

• Team status: 12-6 SU, 8-10 ATS.

Bills ended up going over their win total and winning the AFC East in Week 18. They are over their win total in 6 of the last 7 years.
It is the third straight year with a double-digit win total (none before that since 1992).
Bills clinch the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season. First time Bills have done that since 1988-1991.
+ Bills have won six games in a row SU.
2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS after winning six straight last 20 years
All at home
+ Bills are on a 6-game winning streak — longest active streak in the NFL (and tied for the longest streak in the NFL this season).
Teams on a 6-plus game win streak entering the Divisional Round are 20-22 ATS when not facing a team on the same streak over the last 20 years. Of those 42 teams, only 5 entered the game with a win pct of 66% or less like the Bills. Those teams went 1-4 SU.
+ The Bills are 15-4 straight up all-time at home in the playoffs. The three QBs to defeat the Bills in Buffalo in the playoffs in the Super Bowl era? Joe Burrow, Mark Brunell and Len Dawson.
+ Chiefs are allowing only 16.7 PPG during the regular season and allowed just 7 points in the Wild Card Round. Josh Allen has excelled vs. good defenses and struggled against bad defenses in terms of covering the spread.
Vs. teams allowing 20 PPG or more: 29-37-4 ATS (44%)
Vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG: 20-6-1 ATS (77%)
His 20-6-1 ATS mark is 2nd-best of 247 QBs last 20 years behind just Tom Brady (Peyton is 3rd).
+ No turnovers for the Bills vs. the Steelers
Josh Allen is 13-18-2 ATS after the Bills don’t turn the ball over in their previous game – including 4-10-1 ATS in the last 3 seasons, worst of 80 QBs in NFL.
December 19-28, 2020: last time Josh Allen didn’t have a turnover in consecutive regular season starts.
Regular Season:
He has 78 INT since 2018, most in NFL
He has 59 fumbles since 2018, most in NFL.
+ Allen interceptions in regular season vs. playoffs.
Regular season: 78 interceptions in 93 starts
Playoffs: 4 interceptions and 2 fumbles lost in 9 games
+ Something about the AFC East. After facing the division, Allen’s not so great ATS following week.
After facing AFC East: 14-21-1 ATS
After facing all other teams: 37-24-4 ATS
+ Bills have scored 20 pts or more in 9 straight games – the Bills record is 11 such games.
When the Bills offense plays well, the defense tends to show up as well. 11-7 to the under this season
Bills are 5-3 ATS in their last 8 games, including 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games
Bills 15-20-1 ATS mark since start of last year is the 6th-worst in the NFL
+ As a home favorite, Allen, Bills are 35-8 SU. He’s 2nd in the NFL in ML profitability last 5 years, behind only Jalen Hurts.
+ Bills are 19-3 SU in their last 22 home games, including 29-6 SU in their last 35 home games.
+ Bills have scored 20+ points now in 9 straight games – the longest active streak in the NFL.
Teams to score 20+ pts in at least 5 straight games entering the Divisional Round are just 28-40 ATS (41%) last 20 years.
Teams to score 20+ pts in 9 straight games entering a playoff game are 37-21 SU (64%) since 2001, including 24-10 SU (71%) at home.
+ Josh Allen vs KC, 15 TD 3 INT .. faced Mahomes 5 straight times in KC.
Allen running: 69-321 (54/game)
+ In toss up games, Josh Allen has performed well.
Spread is 3 or less, Allen is 19-12 SU, 19-11-1 ATS.
Spread is 4 or less, Allen is 25-14 SU, 23-15-1 ATS.
+ Josh Allen regular season
SU, ATS: 63-30 SU, 49-35-5 ATS
Home/Road: 34-12 SU, 23-21-2 at home. 29-18 SU, 26-18-3 ATS on road/neutral
Favorite/Dog: 50-15 SU, 32-30-3 ATS as favorite. 13-15 SU, 17-9-2 ATS as dog.
+ Josh Allen playoffs
SU, ATS: 5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS
Home/Road: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS at home. 0-3 SU/ATS on road/neutral.
Favorite/Dog: 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS as favorite. 0-3 SU/ATS as dog.
+ Allen in December or later: 27-12 SU, 20-17-2 ATS
Dec. or later at home: 17-5 SU, 10-11-1 ATS
+ Josh Allen has 68 wins in his career. 49 of those 68 wins have been by 7 pts or more.
+ Allen has really succeeded on normal rest in his career. This week, he’s on short rest against the Chiefs.
Allen is 33-20-3 ATS on 7 days rest (11th-most profitable QB ATS last 20 years in this spot)
He’s 8-10-1 ATS on short rest and 8-13-1 ATS on extended rest.
+ How do teams perform on short rest in the playoffs.
Teams on short rest in the playoffs, facing a team who is not in the same position are 5-12 SU and 7-10 ATS over the last 20 years. This weekend that is the Packers, Bucs and Bills.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 59-40-3 against the second half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 3rd-most profitable QB on the second half spread of 257 QBs.
+ Josh Allen is 0-6 in overtime. The Bills as a franchise are now 3-12 SU (20%) in overtime since 2010, T-worst win pct of any team (Jaguars are 2-8).
BUF is 0-6 SU/ATS in OT games since December, 2017.
+ Least profitable QBs ATS in the playoffs over the last 20 years
92. Dak 1-6 ATS, 91. Brees 7-11 ATS, 90. M. Ryan 3-7 ATS, 89. Palmer 0-4 ATS, 88. Dalton 0-4 ATS, 87. Allen 3-6 ATS
+ The Bills entered Week 18 in a very unique scenario. They could have been the 2 seed or miss the playoffs entirely.
Since the NFL merger, 23 teams could have been the 2 seed entering the final week of the regular season but could also have missed the postseason entirely.
+ 5 missed the playoffs altogether.
+ 17 made the playoffs. 11 didn’t win a playoff game. 5 won one playoff game. 1985 Patriots were lone team to make a Super Bowl and lost 46-10.
+ If you set the teams who missed the playoffs at 0, these 22 teams averaged 0.3 playoff wins per team.
Note: ignore all of 1980 (entire field made playoffs this way).

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NFL Public Sides & Line Moves ⤵️

Biggest NFL Divisional Public Side
49ers (-10) vs. GB					58% of bets

Biggest NFL Divisional Line Move
Ravens (-8.5 to -9.5) vs. HOU

NFL Ticket Count & Public Totals ⤵️

Most Bet Game By Ticket Count in Divisional
Packers at 49ers (-9.5)					250k bets

Biggest NFL Divisional Public Total
GB-SF (O/U: 50.5)					75% of bets to the over

System: Fade good teams later in the season.

Matches: BAL, DET

$$$: Fade Good SU/ATS Teams Dec or Later

the game was played in February or January or December

the team's ATS win % is between 60% and 100%

the team's win percentage is between 70% and 100%

the game is played during the Regular or Postseason season

$-5,844

WON

216-265-10

RECORD

45%

WIN%

View System

System: Underdogs on short rest after an upset have historically been bad bets.

Matches: GB, TB

$$$: Fade Dog after Upset as Dog, Short Rest

the team has had between 0 and 6 days off

the team's previous game spread was between 1 and 100

the team is the Dog

the team's game number is between 2 and 100

the team's previous game margin is between 1 and 100

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

$-2,979

WON

44-72-4

RECORD

38%

WIN%

View System

System: Betting unders in night games has been a profitable angle for years.

Matches: GB/SF, KC/BUF

$$$: Primetime Unders Recently

the game started between 18:00 and 23:59 ET

the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 season

the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season

betting on the Under

$4,519

WON

177-118-3

RECORD

60%

WIN%

View System

NFL Playoff Trends ⤵️

Coaching Matters

Career in Playoffs

Cross-Country Travel

Love Air

+ Packers travel west to face the 49ers in San Francisco this week.

Teams to travel from EST or CST to PST to play on the road on short rest for a playoff game are 3-7 SU, 3-6-1 ATS over the past 20 years, including 1-7 SU, 1-6-1 ATS since 2006.

Dome Life

Game in the Big D

+ Overs in dome games in the playoffs are 33-18 over the past 20 years.

Recent streak: 4-1 in past five to the over, 10 straight unders prior to that.

Streaking

Bring Your Hat

The Ravens and Lions have been streaky in certain quarters this season.

BAL: 14-3 1H ATS, 14-2-1 1H ML, 11-4-2 1Q ML, 11-6 1Q ATS, 11-4-2 1Q ML, 11-6 2Q ATS, 13-4 3Q ATS, 6-11 4Q ATS

DET: 13-5 1H ATS, 14-4 1H ML, 10-5-3 1Q ML, 11-7 2Q ATS, 3-15 3Q ATS

More Data!

Playoff Trends

Some NFL playoff trends…
+ Teams to win by double-digits in the Wild Card Round, facing a team who didn’t, are 17-7 ATS (71%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years, including 17-4 ATS (81%) as underdogs (they are 0-3 ATS as favorite). Dogs: GB, HOU, TB.
+ In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the under is 18-5 (78%) over the past 20 years, going under the total by 5.9 PPG.
+ In the six NFL Wild Card games this past weekend, the first half over went 6-0 — going over the total by 8.2 PPG. I was the first undefeated Wild Card weekend to the 1H Over in the Bet Labs database (since '05).
+ Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 27-13 ATS (68%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 38-41-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs. This week: GB, HOU.
+ Teams to win as 6-pt 'dogs or higher the previous week and are 6+ pt 'dogs again the next week. They are 8-8 ATS in playoffs over the past 20 years, but just 3-13 SU. The wins: Ravens 2013 .. Giants 2008 (x2).

Zebra Time

Ref Trends

HOU BAL – John Hussey
+ Home teams: 81-58-3 ATS (4-3 ATS in playoffs)
+ Home teams are 35-12 SU last 3 seasons with Hussey (13-2 SU this season).
+ HOU is 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS with Hussey (0-1 SU/ATS with Stroud).
+ Under: 82-62-2 (57%) with Hussey, 2nd-best of any official behind just Bill Vinovich (Shawn Hochuli is 4th-best). Hussey is 4-3 to under in playoffs.

GB SF – Alex Kemp
+ GB is 2-8 ATS (6-4 SU) with Kemp, lost 4 in a row ATS and 1-7 ATS last 8 games.
Including 2-7 ATS with LaFleur.
+ SF has covered 4 in a row with Kemp.
+ Kemp has refereed two SF playoff games. 2023 vs. SEA. They won and covered at home. 2022 at DAL. They also won and covered.

TB DET – Bill Vinovich
+ Most profitable ref to the under. He’s 100-67-1, +$2,658 on a $100 bet.
10-5 to under this season, 73-42 to the under since 2017.
8-6 to the under in the playoffs (7-1 last 8 playoff games to the under).
+ Lions are 5-2 ATS last 7 games with Vinovich and 1-4 ATS last 5 games with Bucs.
+ Underdogs are 90-74-4 ATS with Vinovich (8-6 ATS in playoffs).
+ Underdogs are 65-102-1 SU with Vinovich. A $100 bettor would be up $2,665 — most of 53 referees in Bet Labs database. Dogs are 7-7 SU in the playoffs with Vinovich.

KC BUF – Shawn Hochuli
+ Road teams are 51-40-3 ATS with Hochuli, including 3-1 ATS in the playoffs.
+ Overall, home/road splits are even with Hochuli. 47-47 SU.
+ Hochuli has refereed just two Bills games (1-1 SU/ATS, both on road). While he’s refereed ten Chiefs games since 2018. KC is 8-2 SU, 3-6-1 ATS with Hochuli.
+ Mahomes is Hochuli’s 2nd-least profitable QB ATS (Russ is 2-5 ATS).
+ Under is 52-39-3 with Hochuli (2-2 in playoffs).
+ Like father, like son. Underdogs are a combined 140-108-7 ATS with Ed and Shawn Hochuli refereeing.

Super Bowl Futures ⤵️

Biggest Super Bowl Riser

Green Bay Packers: 28-1 (GB was 80-1 to win SB last week)

ATS Standings & Stat Sheet ⤵️

Playoff Stat Leaders ⤵️

NFL Final Stat Matrix

	Leader	2nd In Category	3rd In Category
Pass Yds	Dak Prescott (+275): Leader	Matthew Stafford (+2000): -36	Baker Mayfield (+1600): -66
Rush Yds	Aaron Jones (+5000): Leader	Isiah Pacheco (+1100): -29	James Cook (+360): -39
Rec. Yds	Puka Nacua (+2500): Leader	Romeo Doubs (+15000): -30	Devonta Smith (+2200): -33
Rush TD	Aaron Jones (+6000): Leader	Tied (N/A): -2	Tied (N/A): -2
Rec. TD	Jake Ferguson (+2000): Leader	Tied (N/A): -2	Tied (N/A): -2
Sacks	Ernest Jones (+N/A): Co-Leader	Aidan Hutchinson (+1500): Co-Leader	George Karlaftis (+5000): -0.5
Updated as of Jan. 17th

Trivia Instructions

For this weeks trivia question, we are looking for a few different answers. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: Name every QB to start a playoff game for the Houston Texans in franchise history.

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