The NFL's Divisional Round continues on Sunday, and as always, our experts are here to guide you through their picks for both games:
- No. 4 Texans at No. 2 Chiefs: 4:35 p.m. ET
- No. 5 Seahawks at No. 2 Packers: 8:15 p.m. ET
Let’s dig into their favorite bets, featuring spreads and over/unders as well as props.
NFL Divisional Round Betting Picks: Texans-Chiefs & Seahawks-Packers
Odds as of Sunday morning and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Mike Randle: Chiefs -9.5
Buffalo failed to exploit Houston’s vulnerable pass defense in the Wild Card Round. The Bills threw for only 253 yards and their lone touchdown pass came from wide receiver John Brown.
Basically, Buffalo didn’t have the offensive personnel to attack Houston through the air. Kansas City certainly does.
The Chiefs ranked second in pass offense DVOA per Football Outsiders, and will be at full strength after their bye week. And Andy Reid has been superb with extra time to prepare for an opponent.
When these teams met in Week 6, Patrick Mahomes tallied 273 passing yards and three touchdowns, and that was despite playing with an injured ankle and with Tyreek Hill just returning from a broken collarbone.
I grabbed the Chiefs -9.5 and would continue to bet up to 10.5.
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Sean Zerillo: Chiefs First Half -5.5
On Monday, I detailed why I laid the points (-9.5) with the Chiefs, and I would still play that number wherever it's available.
I found further support to back the Chiefs in the first half — as Reid is the most profitable coach against first-half spreads in our database, at 132-104-4 (55.9%), generating a consistent $100 bettor +$1,989.
Since joining the Chiefs, Reid has consistently dominated the first half in home games, at 34-18-3 (65.4%). And he's been even better with Mahomes under center (21-10, 67.7%), no matter the venue.
Conversely, Bill O’Brien is just 45-55-1 (45%) against regular season and postseason first half spreads, with a 26-28 record (48.1%) in the role of an underdog — though DeShaun Watson is 12-5 (70.6%) as a first-half underdog.
Based on weighted DVOA, the Chiefs are a top-10 team in all three phases — No. 4 in offense, No. 9 in defense and No. 1 in special teams) — while the Texans stand 18th, 27th and third, respectively, making this the most substantial on-paper mismatch in the playoffs so far.
I'm expecting a fast start by Kansas City, but with both the first-half and full-game spreads, I might look to play some Texans back live at +14.5 or better.
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Matthew Freedman: Chiefs-Texans Under 51.5
Outdoor postseason games have trended to the under with a record of 75-56-4 (10.9% ROI), and whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always bet the under anyway.
That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?
With the Chiefs, that historically hasn’t been the case.
Under Reid (since 2013), the Chiefs have scored 2.9 fewer points at home than on the road. That’s easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -7.6 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 24 with a mere 43.4 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with 51.0 points, the No. 2 mark in the league.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to score, for both the home and visiting teams.
In the Reid era, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 36-22-1 under record (including playoffs, 20.9% ROI).
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Chris Raybon: Seahawks-Packers Under 45.5
Aaron Rodgers vs. Russell Wilson will be billed as a matchup between two all-time great quarterback. But that doesn’t mean we should expect a high-scoring affair.
Over the past five years, Rodgers hasn’t quite been the same QB he was earlier in his career. After posting 8.2 yards per attempt over his first 10 years in the league, he has failed to crack 7.3 YPA in any of his five seasons since, including a mediocre 7.0 mark this season that places him 17th among 32 qualifiers.
Five years later, the market still hasn't quite caught on — particularly in cold-weather spots when we're not expecting a full-on shootout. In Rodgers’ cold-weather starts (below 50 degrees) with a total below 51 since 2015, the under is 37-27 (58%), including 4-1 this season, according to our Bet Labs data.
Then you have Wilson, whose road starts have trended toward the under throughout his career (39-33) and this season (5-4). Amid a rise in competition level down the stretch, Wilson led his team to more than the 21 points that they’re implied to score in this matchup just twice over the past seven games. And just last week, Seattle mustered only 17 points in a victory over the Eagles despite not committing a turnover and Wilson shredding Philly for 325 yards on 30 pass attempts and 45 yards on nine carries.
Much of it has to do with a deteriorating offensive line and run game that is missing left tackle Duane Brown (knee), center Justin Britt (ACL) and running backs Chris Carson (hip) and Rashaad Penny (knee), among others.
But here’s where the greatness of Rodgers and Wilson, perhaps counterintuitively, really makes the under a strong bet: Both of these quarterbacks are expert game managers. Rodgers has thrown only four interceptions all year, and Wilson has been picked just five times. But of the eight remaining playoff signal-callers, guess which two have fared the worst at converting their dropbacks/carries into first downs on third/fourth down this season?
That’s right, it’s Wilson (37.7%) and Rodgers (36.5%).
I was able to find a slightly juiced 47 (-115), but I would bet the under down to 45 at standard juice, as my numbers are in agreement with my ever-sharp colleague Sean "The Oddsmaker" Koerner, who pegs this line at 44.5 in his power ratings.
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Zerillo: David Moore Over 18.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Moore has locked down No. 3 receiver duties for the Seahawks over the past two weeks, playing 97 offensive snaps, compared to 132 for D.K. Metcalf, 130 for Tyler Lockett and 15 for John Ursua.
Moore has led all Seahawks receivers (save for Josh Gordon) in average depth of target over the past two years at 17.4 in 2018, and 14.2 in 2019.
And he’s proven to be adept after the catch, improving from 21% to 45% in his percentage of receiving yards recorded after the catch from last season to this season.
As a result, one catch at average depth, with his normal YAC accumulation, should be enough for Moore to hit the over on his yardage total here. And two grabs should be more than enough to surpass even our projection, which calls for 29.7 receiving yards.
I would bet the over on Moore’s receiving total up to 22 yards, which rates as a 10-out-of-10 in our props tool.
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