The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, and quarterbacks were the story of the draft.
Or, perhaps more accurately, QBs were the story of the first 12 picks. That's where six quarterbacks flew off the board, in the top three picks as expected, but then at picks No. 8, No. 10 and No. 12.
We've known Caleb Williams was headed to the Bears for ages, while Jayden Daniels to the Commanders and Drake Maye to the Patriots became clearer and clearer as we reached draft day. J.J. McCarthy was long rumored as a Vikings trade-up candidate. But Bo Nix was a shock first-round pick for the Broncos, and nobody anywhere expected the Falcons to grab Michael Penix Jr.
But quarterbacks don't succeed or fail on their own. They need blockers up front, weapons to throw to and a defense to set them up — and they need stable organizations and terrific coaching to develop their talent.
So how do each of the six first-round QBs fit into his new team situation? Let's grade them, starting at the top of the draft.
Caleb Williams, Bears
Many analysts have called this one of the best situations ever for a rookie quarterback to step into, and there's certainly a lot to like.
It starts with an incredible trio of receivers. The Bears traded for D.J. Moore last season and saw their investment pay off with a great season. Moore is a good route runner who can bust the field open on any play. Then Chicago made another trade to add sure-handed veteran Keenan Allen, who catches everything in sight and acts as a QB's best friend.
Now on top of those two, the Bears add No. 9 pick Rome Odunze out of Washington, a well-rounded receiver with a high floor, a guy who does a little bit of everything. Bears fans will be hearing Williams-to-Odunze for a long time, and that trio of receivers is as good as any in the entire NFL. Add in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett at tight end, and Williams will have plenty of weapons to throw to.
Chicago's defense came on very strong down the stretch after adding Montez Sweat. If that defensive improvement carries over, it would be a huge boon to set up the Bears offense.
The run game should be solid too. D'Andre Swift joins Khalil Herbert as a more-than-capable duo, and Chicago has strong run blocking, though it remains to be seen how that strong run game holds up without the threat of Justin Fields as a runner.
So far, so good, but I spot three concerns.
That offensive line is improved, but mostly in run blocking. It's still a subpar pass-blocking unit, and that could play into Williams' worst tendencies since he often holds the ball too long, leading to sacks and negative plays. That's a real worry for a young QB with some bad habits.
It's also a concern that sophomore Tyson Bagent is the only other QB currently on the roster, with no veteran to show Williams the ropes or add some leadership to the locker room.
Finally, the coaching staff is a tricky spot. New offensive coordinator Shane Waldron has done an incredible job with quarterbacks, notably turning Geno Smith's career around in Seattle. That's a huge plus to Williams, but it's a catch-22. Waldron is also a hot name for head coaching positions, and if he does do well with Williams quickly, that could mean Waldron leaving and rapid turnover at the position, a problem created when Chicago stuck with Matt Eberflus a year too long.
There's lots to like here, but pump the breaks a bit on those playoff odds (-130 to make the postseason at FanDuel). It will be a bumpy transition for Williams, even in a good situation, and this is a tough, loaded division. The Bears are more likely to finish last than first. Chicago is +104 to miss the playoffs, if you'd like to fade Williams as a rookie.
GRADE: B+
Jayden Daniels, Commanders
While Williams steps into an ideal situation that's been prepared carefully on his behalf, Jayden Daniels steps into a work in progress.
Washington has had a busy offseason, adding names and new starters up and down the roster. There aren't many big, splashy names for the Commanders. These moves have been about raising the team's floor, simply adding competence across the roster. That builds a much better situation for Daniels to step into, even if the overall product still needs plenty of work.
The best thing Daniels has going for him in Washington is a whole cadre of capable pass catchers. Terry McLaurin is an underrated No. 1, and Jahan Dotson is young and on the rise. Jamison Crowder is a steady possession guy, and veteran signings Austin Ekeler and Zach Ertz are great receivers. Meanwhile, the team drafted WR Luke McCaffrey and TE Ben Sinnott in the top three rounds to be the future with Daniels.
The rest of the roster leaves much to be desired.
Washington invested into its offensive line, adding three new starters along the left side, perhaps including third-round OT Brandon Coleman. That represents a big step up from last season but could make life difficult as the line takes time to gel early. Perhaps the Commanders will let Marcus Mariota get a few starts early. He's a very nice backup for Daniels, with a similar playing style that will help the offense find some consistency and act as a positive mentor for the rookie. The defense probably won't help much.
The big question for how you evaluate this situation comes down to the new coaching staff. And with respect to Dan Quinn, that's really a question of how you feel about Kliff Kingsbury. He oversaw a regression season from Caleb Williams at USC this year, and his NFL offenses have often been found out over the second half of the season.
I don't mind the offensive roster, but I'm not enthusiastic at all about Kingsbury's offense.
GRADE: B-
Drake Maye, Patriots
There are QB-ready rosters, and then there are the Patriots. I rated Drake Maye as my top prospect in the class, but I expect him to be a work-in-progress in need of development, and this could be a very tricky developmental situation.
The offense is mostly barren. It used to be that you could count on a great offensive line season after season under Bill Belichick, but Belichick is gone, and the offensive line faded badly the last couple years anyway. Third-round rookie Caedan Wallace likely gets the start at left tackle, protecting Maye's blindside. That's not a great situation.
Neither are the weapons surrounding Maye. New England's receivers are among the least feared in the league — Demario Douglas, Kendrick Bourne, JuJu Smith-Schuster and now rookie Ja'Lynn Polk. There's a bit more talent at RB and TE, but this is an offense that even Josh Allen would struggle to elevate. That's a possible comp for Maye years down the road, but it's a lot to ask for a rookie.
Coaching is mostly an unknown, too. Jerod Mayo is the new coach, and Alex Van Pelt will run the offense and has limited experience calling plays.
Expect a lot of growing pains in New England, especially in a tough division where the Patriots will be big underdogs in all six games.
New England might have been better served trading down from No. 3 for a windfall and looking to rebuild its roster first, then add a quarterback in a future draft. Unless the Patriots start Jacoby Brissett, Maye will be stepping into a very losing situation and a long road ahead.
GRADE: D-
Michael Penix Jr., Falcons
How do you even grade the situation Penix will step into, when the reality is that he probably won't be stepping into an NFL situation at all for at least two more seasons?
This remains one of the more baffling top-10 picks in recent memory, investing in a near-24-year-old QB just weeks after guaranteeing $100 million to Kirk Cousins. I wrote about the Falcons as one of five teams a quarterback away from a possible Super Bowl run and praised the fit and upside when Cousins signed.
Atlanta's QB gets to work with a top-10 pick at RB, WR and TE from each of the past three drafts in Bijan Robinson Drake London, and Kyle Pitts. That's a whole lot of talent, though the rest of the receiver room is pretty barren after London. The offensive line had a rough season but should be a top-five unit if healthy. And though the coaching staff is new under Raheem Morris, new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson has been one of the up-and-coming potential play callers.
Still, how can you get excited about stepping into a situation when the situation very likely involves you riding the pine for at least two $45-million-guaranteed Cousins seasons?
Nobody wants to step into the bench.
GRADE: INCOMPLETE
J.J. McCarthy, Vikings
I'm not sure Caleb Williams is even stepping into the best rookie QB situation in his own division. Minnesota is the absolute ideal scenario for a young QB to step into and learn on the job.
Justin Jefferson is the best receiver in the league, period. You can make an argument that T.J. Hockenson is as good as any tight end once healthy, and sophomore Jordan Addison is a heck of a third weapon. The run game was lacking last season but adds veteran Aaron Jones, who also happens to be a terrific pass catcher and blocker, both huge helps for a young QB. Minnesota also has Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill, perhaps the best pass-blocking tackle pair in the league.
The Vikings also have the perfect bridge quarterback in Sam Darnold, who is probably just good enough to buy Minnesota a month or two of competent play and just bad enough to make McCarthy look good once he's ready to step in.
The coaching situation is ideal too. Kevin O'Connell has done a great job calling plays and got this offense to work under four different QBs last season, and since he's the head coach, he's not going anywhere. That's another big advantage compared to someone like Shane Waldron in Chicago.
The interior of the offensive line needs some work, especially at guard, and the defense is still a work in progress under Brian Flores. The division is tough too, but even there, that's mostly offense, not defense.
Long term, McCarthy faces an uphill battle in a division now featuring Williams, Jordan Love and Ben Johnson's Detroit offense. It will be tough for him to match that ceiling.
But in the short term, this is about as good a situation as a young QB could step into in the NFL.
GRADE: A
Bo Nix, Broncos
Nix was the sixth and final quarterback selected in the first round, and it's notable that the next QB drafted after Nix at No. 12 went at pick No. 150, literally two days later, in Spencer Rattler. Nix looks like a career backup with a very low starter ceiling a la Gardner Minshew, a potential game manager type.
The problem in Denver is that the Broncos' roster is nowhere near good enough for just a game manager.
The Broncos have invested heavily into the offensive line and could have a top-10 unit there, but it's a line that's much better at run blocking, and that's sort of the tight ends on this roster too. Sean Payton has built a run-first identity team, and though that does suit a game manager style, it leaves little for Nix to work with.
The weapons leave a lot to be desired. Courtland Sutton is on the low end for WR1s, and there's little on the depth chart after Sutton. Fourth-round rookie Troy Franklin was a teammate of Nix's at Oregon and could be a security blanket early.
Not long ago, any quarterback at all stepping into a Payton team with Joe Lombardi calling the plays would've been considered an excellent situation. But Lombardi's play calling has left plenty to be desired after pushing the offense toward a check-down offense that fit Drew Brees late in his career.
Ironically enough, late-career Brees is probably a decent comp for Nix — focusing on short, quick, accurate passes that don't push the ball down the field. Maybe that makes this a great fit for Nix! But what does it do for his long-term development or upside? And will Payton and Lombardi be around to see it? That part remains to be seen.
