Betting on the NFL Draft doesn’t have the same extensive history as other sporting events, but it’s safe to say that the third overall pick by the San Francisco 49ers this year is the most bet-on draft prop in history.
That’s because it’s a high-profile spot with a tremendous amount of fluctuation. There are the garden variety rumors and buzz and head coach Kyle Shanahan certainly didn’t do much to tip his hand when he said things are so uncertain we don’t know if we will be living by draft day.
When PointsBet opened the market on Feb. 13, the favorites were DeVonta Smith and Ja’Marr Chase (+250). By March 30, Justin Fields had come from +800 to the favorite spot of +150, with Mac Jones and Trey Lance close behind at +160.
By Wednesday afternoon, Jones — who wasn’t even on the board for the spot until the end of March — emerged as the -400 favorite, with Lance at +220 and Fields at +600.
PointsBet says 55.6% of the handle is on Jones now.
"It's appearing that the third pick prop in the draft may have the biggest handle ever for a draft prop," Johnny Avello, head of DraftKings sportsbook, told the Action Network. The back and forth between Mac Jones and Justin Fields stimulated an abundance of action, and then Trey Lance entered the conversation. The action continues to be lively."
At FanDuel, the third pick is the most popular bet by bet count and handle. If Justin Fields gets picked No. 3, it represents the book’s biggest single loss.
The book says that 38 percent of the bets are on Fields, 26 percent on Trey Lance and 14 percent on Mac Jones.
Fields is also the most popular draft position bet (7.5).
52 percent of bets on currently on the under, while 48 percent are currently on the over. Some believe it Fields isn’t selected third he could experience an Aaron Rodgers draft day fall, including Chris Simms, who on Tuesday projected Fields falling to the Buccaneers at No. 32.
PointsBet’s head of trading Jay Croucher said even the bet on Lance over Fields is getting a significant amount of action, especially from the sharps who are on Lance.
Betting on the draft usually focuses on the Top 10, but never have we seen one pick, with three real possibilities, get so much of the money.
