While contenders are jockeying for postseason positioning, pretenders can turn their attention to a future race: Securing top picks in the 2022 NFL Draft.
All four teams already eliminated from the 2021 NFL playoffs are effectively locked into top-10 picks — the Lions, Texans, Jaguars and Jets — but there's plenty of fluidity to the possibilities of which team ends up with the No. 1 pick, as well as which soon-to-be-eliminated teams will fill out the rest.
With that in mind, we used the model of one of the six experts who power our NFL PRO Projections to project the 2022 NFL Draft order of first-round picks heading into Week 15. We also used his model to project each team's chances of finishing with a top-five or top-10 pick.
It should come as no surprise that the 1-11-1 Lions have the highest chance of securing the No. 1 overall pick at 57.7%, followed by the 2-11 Texans at 28.3% and the 2-11 Jaguars at 12.9% — and all three have at least a 99% chance of finishing with a top-five pick and 100% chance of a top-10 pick.
The team yet to be officially eliminated from the playoffs with the highest chance of finishing with a top-five pick (43.94%) is the Bears, who at 4-9 are still mathematically alive but have increasingly slim hopes. They also don't actually own their 2022 first-round pick — they dealt it to the Giants when trading up to draft Justin Fields at 11th overall last April.
The Giants and Panthers are up next with 31.68% and 22.82% projected chances, respectively, of securing a top-five pick. So TL;DR — the Giants have a high chance of securing a top-five pick.
Now let's run through the rest of the results!
Note: We've indicated which first-round picks actually belong to other teams below. There are six that have been traded.
2022 NFL Draft Order Projections
| Pick | Team |
|---|---|
| 1 | Lions |
| 2 | Texans |
| 3 | Jaguars |
| 4 | Jets |
| 5 | Giants (via Bears) |
| 6 | Giants |
| 7 | Panthers |
| 8 | Jets (via Seahawks) |
| 9 | Eagles (via Dolphins) |
| 10 | Falcons |
| 11 | Raiders |
| 12 | WFT |
| 13 | Steelers |
| 14 | Vikings |
| 15 | Saints |
| 16 | Broncos |
| 17 | Browns |
| 18 | Bengals |
| 19 | Eagles |
| 20 | Dolphins (via 49ers) |
| 21 | Eagles (via Colts) |
| 22 | Ravens |
| 23 | Bills |
| 24 | Lions (via Rams) |
| 25 | Chargers |
| 26 | Chiefs |
| 27 | Cowboys |
| 28 | Cardinals |
| 29 | Titans |
| 30 | Packers |
| 31 | Bucs |
| 32 | Patriots |
2022 NFL Draft Projections
| Team | No. 1 Pick | Top 5 Pick | Top 10 Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lions | 57.70% | 99.92% | 100.00% |
| Texans | 28.30% | 99.90% | 100.00% |
| Jaguars | 12.90% | 99.14% | 100.00% |
| Jets | 1.10% | 95.26% | 99.97% |
| Giants (via Bears) | 0.00% | 43.94% | 95.88% |
| Giants | 0.00% | 31.68% | 94.26% |
| Panthers | 0.00% | 22.82% | 90.28% |
| Jets (via Seahawks) | 0.00% | 3.57% | 55.64% |
| Falcons | 0.00% | 1.36% | 51.96% |
| Eagles (via Dolphins) | 0.00% | 1.66% | 47.54% |
| Raiders | 0.00% | 0.00% | 45.76% |
| WFT | 0.00% | 0.04% | 28.75% |
| Steelers | 0.00% | 0.01% | 23.80% |
| Eagles | 0.00% | 0.39% | 18.06% |
| Vikings | 0.00% | 0.20% | 16.86% |
| Saints | 0.00% | 0.01% | 13.69% |
| Broncos | 0.00% | 0.00% | 5.78% |
| Bengals | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.59% |
| Browns | 0.00% | 0.00% | 4.59% |
| Dolphins (via 49ers) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 1.47% |
| Eagles (via Colts) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.83% |
| Bills | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.26% |
| Ravens | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.02% |
| Chargers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.01% |
| Cardinals | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Cowboys | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Packers | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Chiefs | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Lions (via Rams) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Patriots | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Bucs | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Titans | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
