The New York Jets looked destined for an 0-16 season … and the right to draft Trevor Lawrence as the first overall pick in 2021. But those expectations changed Sunday.
As 17.5-point underdogs, the Jets beat the Rams, 23-20, to match the biggest NFL upset against the spread since 1995. The Jets still have the worst record in the NFL, but they're not alone: The Jaguars are also 1-13, and as of Sunday evening, they hold the tiebreaker based on strength of schedule over the Jets.
Following the Jets' victory, we used our NFL model to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times and project just how much of an impact the win could have on their chances of still finishing with the first overall pick.
If you're a Jets fan, it is not pretty.
NFL Draft Odds: No. 1 Pick
Heading into Sunday, the Jets were in the driver's seat of the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes with an 82.4% chance to make the first selection according to our model. That plummeted to 28.8% after their win — a 53.6% swing.
Of course, on the opposite side of that swing was Jacksonville: Before Week 15, the Jaguars had a 16.3% chance to secure the No. 1 spot on the draft board. That skyrocketed to 63.8% after Sunday's loss to the Ravens and the Jets' win over the Rams — a 47.5% difference.
And yes, the Bengals are on the fringe of this race for the NFL's worst according to our model, with a still small but now bigger chance to once again draft at the top of the order after selecting Joe Burrow from that position in 2020.
With two more Week 15 results to still factor in, below is our model's projected final order for the first round of the 2021 NFL Draft.
