There are a million NFL draft markets to dive into, but my favorite wagers to make are on draft position over/under.
Let’s dive into my favorite draft position over/under bets for this year’s NFL draft. I’ve got three picks, including two on quarterbacks.
Draft Position – Will Anderson Over 3.5 (-150)
For all his talent, athleticism, pedigree and collegiate production, I’m officially ready to sell Will Anderson Jr. in the draft market.
Well, at least in this market. I still believe he could be the first defensive player off the board, beating out Tyree Wilson, Devon Witherspoon and others.
That said, too many things can happen toward the top of the draft, and there’s too little room for “error” if you’re betting on Anderson being drafted top three.
First, it’s becoming more and more likely by the day that the top three picks could all be quarterbacks. It’s even rumored that the top four picks could all be quarterbacks.
That instantly puts a huge dent into Anderson’s draft stock, at least in the betting market.
Meanwhile, trades by any team among the top three picks likely put a dent into Anderson’s top-three chances, given most teams would likely trade up to take a quarterback rather than a defensive lineman.
Second, Wilson is officially the overwhelming favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. While I don’t necessarily agree with that, it carries weight for Anderson because if he’s not the top defensive player off the board, I would say it’s increasingly unlikely he goes in the top three.
The mock draft market still values Anderson as a top-three pick, and most big boards have him as a No. 1 or 2 prospect. Anderson’s college production also vastly outweighs Wilson’s.
However, Wilson is often perceived as the better athletic prospect with a higher upside, and we saw that narrative play out in last year’s draft when the Jaguars took Travon Walker with the top overall pick.
For example, from Peter Schrager on The Pat McAfee Show:
“The DeMeco Ryans formula is, get me a long, big, defensive lineman that we can start working around because that is what we did in San Francisco … the guy who is that is Tyree Wilson out of Texas Tech.”
"As of right now I think Tyree Wilson is going to the Texans with that number two pick"@PSchrags#PMSLivepic.twitter.com/Ox1N95ZEsd
— Pat McAfee (@PatMcAfeeShow) April 25, 2023
Ultimately, when I envision the scenarios that can happen toward the top of the draft, the scenarios where Anderson is not a top-three pick (too many quarterbacks taken, too many trades, Wilson goes over Anderson) vastly outweigh the scenarios where Anderson is a top-three pick (goes No. 2 to Houston, goes No. 3 to Arizona, is the first defensive player drafted).
I’m willing to bet on that take, even at a slightly juiced number.
Draft Position – Anthony Richardson Under 4.5 (+255)
I was never a believer in Anthony Richardson. But I recently watched a deep-dive scouting video by The Ringer’s Ben Solak, which flipped my opinion.
I can see why Richardson’s draft stock has skyrocketed. He has every tool needed to be an elite NFL quarterback, and his upside is higher than every other guy in this draft.
Richardson boasts elite arm talent and unbelievable speed that he combines with a huge frame. I mean, he’s 6-foot-4, 245 lbs., runs a 4.43 40-yard dash and can throw the ball 60 yards with a flick of the wrist.
I’m not sure why teams wouldn’t take a shot on Richardson. His ceiling is Mahomesian.
Today on The Play Sheet is Anthony Richardson, a top-tier pocket manager with flashes of great processing and deep accuracy…that just happens to also run a 4.4 at 240 pounds.
Full video on the project who isn't really that project-y: https://t.co/lEyJeejTRkpic.twitter.com/0GozHvWgGX
— Benjamin Solak (@BenjaminSolak) April 20, 2023
We also know the scout against Richardson, which includes his accuracy and decision-making issues.
But even with those in mind, Richardson gets picked among the top four in 38% of Vegas Refund’s 34 tracked mock drafts. A 38% implied probability translates to +163 fair odds, giving us value in this position.
Meanwhile, Richardson goes before pick No. 5 in 84% of Matthew Freedman’s sharp consensus. You can guess what an 84% implied probability translates to.
And we don’t know who will trade up into the top four. As I mentioned with Anderson, any trade by a team into the top three or top four increases the likelihood of that team drafting a quarterback, increasing the likelihood of Richardson being drafted fourth or better.
I don’t know what will happen on draft day, but there’s too much value in this huge plus-money number not to take a shot with Richardson, whose draft stock is rising like a hot-air balloon.
Draft Position – Hendon Hooker Over 30.5 (+150, Caesars)
I feel pretty solid about under 4.5 quarterbacks taken in the first round, which would guarantee Tennessee slinger Hendon Hooker goes past this number.
Hooker is just another quarterback that generated unnecessary first-round buzz directly before draft night. It happened to Malik Willis last season, Drew Lock a few years before that, and several others in the history of the draft.
I could go through the scouting report against Hooker, but my co-worker Brandon Anderson took care of that in this piece.
Either way, to surmise the issues with Hooker:
- His production came in a gimmicky offense.
- He’s recovering from a torn ACL.
- He’s way too old.
However, the most important point to make here is that four elite quarterback prospects are worth an early first-round look, and then it’s not worth wasting a first-round pick on a quarterback past that.
Unfortunately, that fifth quarterback is Hooker.
Per The Action Network’s own Vegas Refund, Hooker ranks 56th on the consensus big board and goes past the 31st pick in 74% of 34 tracked mock drafts. The Athletic’s Beast Guide has Hooker as the 49th overall prospect.
Hooker has generated first-round buzz, but that’s all smoke and mirrors. I’d say it’s more likely he falls to the third round than goes in the first, and I’m willing to make a hefty plus-money bet on that.
