Chaos! I think we are walking into a little bit of chaos in Week 17.
Motivation questions, games with extremely large spreads, a ton on the line in the last week of the season, I’ll go with underdogs. Over the past three seasons, underdogs of at least 3-1 (closing line at Pinnacle) are 4-9 straight up, profiting bettors $446 on a $100/game wager. Those dogs went 2-2 straight up last season in Week 17. Jets, Raiders, Bengals, Cardinals, 49ers… welcome aboard!
Week 17 in the NFL is all about strategy, and I’ll throw a few strategic darts this week. — Evan Abrams
Aaaand we're off!
Our staff has angles on the meaningful (and not so meaningful) Week 17 matchups, one of which we have a massive consensus on: Bears at Vikings (-4.5). And for even more in-depth analysis on Sunday's slate, check out our betting guides for every single game.
Let's close out the regular season strong with our 17 favorite bets for Week 17, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn't have spotted. Our NFL staff picks are 130-118-14 (52.4%) for the season.
>> All odds pulled on Dec. 27, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
EARLY AFTERNOON ACTION
Stuckey: Jaguars +6.5 (at Texans)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
For a team that came within a few plays of the Super Bowl last season, a Week 17 spoiler role is the Jaguars' Super Bowl in 2018.
When the Jags are on defense, there is nobody on the Texans who can contain the pass rush of Calais Campbell. It is Campbell, not Khalil Mack or J.J Watt, who's actually Pro Football Focus' highest graded edge-rusher this season:
- Campbell: 90.9
- Mack: 90.6
- Watt: 90.2
- Trey Flowers: 89.6
- Cam Jordan: 89.5
He will take on what I feel is the worst offensive line in all of football. And the advanced metrics agree, as the Texans rank 32nd in adjusted sack rate and have allowed a league-high 56 sacks. Campbell should wreak havoc in the backfield on Sunday in Houston.
The Jags have two of the most talented corners in the league, and both are capable of staying with DeAndre Hopkins. That will essentially shut down Houston's passing attack. The Texans just really don’t have many other options in the passing game as a result of the group being decimated by injury.
In the first meeting (20-7 Texans win), Watson only threw for 139 yards and six of his 12 completions went to Will Fuller, who is out for the year.
On the other side of the ball, I think Bortles can carry some of the momentum from last week against a vulnerable Texans secondary in what will basically serve as a job audition for him.
As with most Week 17 NFL games between a contender and eliminated team, we are getting value with the lame duck, which can play looser in a game they should want to show up for — not only for job auditions, but to play spoiler and to avenge an earlier season loss to a division rival.
That loss should give Bortles a little extra motivation, too, as it was the game he was benched for Cody Kessler. Wait for the +7, but I still like +6.5 if it never pops.
Matt LaMarca: Bills -5.5 (vs. Dolphins)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
This game is one of the most straightforward on the slate, which makes it one of the easiest to handicap in my opinion.
We don’t have to worry about quarterbacks being pulled mid game. We don’t have to worry about scoreboard watching. We don’t have to worry about inflated spreads because of “motivation.”
We can simply focus on the two teams, and I think the Bills are the superior squad despite owning an inferior record. Miami currently ranks 30th in DVOA, while the Bills check in at 25th.
They outgained the Dolphins by a ridiculous margin in their first meeting, winning the yardage battle 415-175, but were ultimately done in by three turnovers.
If Josh Allen can avoid gifting the Dolphins field position in this contest, I like the Bills’ chances of covering the spread.
BlackJack Fletcher: Falcons -1 (at Bucs)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
This game goes back to a theory I mentioned last week.
The Bucs are in all likelihood firing Dirk Koetter after the season and may well be cleaning house altogether. Who knows who will be playing quarterback for them next season? There is no incentive to play hard, and they are just itching to get to the offseason.
The Falcons know head coach Dan Quinn will be back, which is why I think players will continue to play hard for him. At such a short number, I love the Falcons in this spot.
John Ewing: Jets +13.5 (at Patriots)
1 p.m. ET on NBC
The Patriots have something to play for in Week 17. With a win New England secures the No. 2 seed in the AFC and a first-round bye.
The Pats should be properly motivated for this matchup, but the line is still inflated. According to The Action Network's NFL simulations, New England is projected to win by 9.1 points on average.
The Jets should be able to score and keep this relatively close. New York has averaged 27.3 points per game in its past four games, while the Patriots defense ranks 19th in Football Outsiders DVOA. They are also allowing 21.5 PPG, the worst mark for a New England defense since 2002 (21.6 PPG).
Keith LeBlanc: Lions-Packers Under 44.5
1 p.m. ET on FOX
The weather is shaping up to make this game fall way under the projected 44.5 point total. Wind speeds are expected to be up above 17 mph.
Since 2003, the under has hit at a 55.5% clip when wind speeds are 10 mph or more. Despite heavy public action on the over (72%) the total has fallen since opening, signaling sharp under action.
We have also tracked two different Reverse Line Moves on the Under 44.5. Historically, unders have been a profitable bet in division games, especially late in the season (57% in December since 2003).
Peter Jennings: Panthers +8 (at Saints)
1 p.m. ET on FOX
Absolutely no incentive for the Saints here, which makes this line way too high — regardless of who is under center for Carolina.
LATE AFTERNOON ACTION
PJ Walsh: Bears +4.5 (at Vikings)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Bears can still improve their playoff seeding with a win. And considering they still have something to play for, this line is considerably off where it should be.
The Action Network’s simulations make the spread Chicago -1.8, while our NFL power ratings have Minnesota at -2.7.
While not as drastic as the sims, the power ratings suggest there’s still plenty of value grabbing the Bears through the key numbers of +3 and +4.
Travis Reed: Bears +4.5 (at Vikings)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
I bet this line as soon as it opened at Chicago +6. PJ already laid out the math, and assuming the Bears are giving full effort and planning on winning the game, this was my highest edge this week.
There's no way I can make the Vikings better than the Bears on a neutral field. Now we just have to hope the Bears show up.
Chris Raybon: Bears +4.5 (at Vikings)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
I agree with PJ and Travis here — there's still some cushion, even if this line is adjusting for the possibility of the Bears not going all out should the Rams open up a big lead against the 49ers.
This line seems a bit inflated after Chicago struggled against San Francisco last week, but if you've been paying attention, you know the 49ers are better than public perception.
Cousins has struggled in big moments in the past, so I love betting against him versus an elite defense. This spread should be no more than a field goal.
Chad Millman: Bears +4.5 (at Vikings)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
Ah, Week 17. That point in the NFL season when finding two teams you know will field starters at every position is like finding Santa after Dec. 25.
But, in this one, both sides have reason to be motivated. And like my colleagues above, me thinks the Bears will do what they’ve done all year: play opportunistically on offense, be aggressive on defense and defy expectations, even as a team that has already clinched the division.
The respect from bookmakers and the market for Vikings has lingered all season, thanks to gaudy stats and some big moments. But the move on this line, from Vikings -3 to -4.5, is too much against a Bears team that is peaking, especially on defense.
Sean Koerner: Redskins +7 (vs. Eagles)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Redskins nearly played spoiler to the Titans' playoff chances by controlling time of possession with Adrian Peterson and Josh Johnson moving the chains while running the clock down.
I can see them having a similar approach to shorten the game and keep this within one score.
It's no surprise that 80% of the tickets are on the Eagles; there was little chance bettors were going to fade Foles after he went off for 471 yards and four touchdowns in Week 17.
Take the points here, just be sure to shop around for the best number, as +7 is still available at a number of shops at the time of publication.
This should be a low scoring game, and I really think the Redskins can play spoiler here against an Eagles team far from firing on all cylinders.
Ian Hartitz: Eagles-Redskins Under 42
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
There are a myriad of matchup-specific factors that indicate this could be a low-scoring affair.
- It's a divisional rematch late in the season.
- The matchups boasts the week's slowest combined situation neutral pace.
- Both offenses boast below-average combined explosive play rates in the run and pass game.
- The Eagles' ferocious defensive line could make life very difficult for Johnson and the Redskins' injury-riddled offensive line.
- Neither run game is expected to have overwhelming success based on each offense’s combined adjusted line yards per rush.
- Both teams have mostly done a solid job at taking care of the football, while neither defense has excelled at creating takeaways.
The Redskins haven't scored more than 16 points in a game since November. I’ll take the under and bet against Foles having back-to-back exceptional games.
Matthew Freedman: Chiefs-Raiders Under 52.5
4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
One of my favorite bets is the Chiefs home under. In the Andy Reid era (since 2013), no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 17-29-1 over/under record, good for a 22.9% return on investment (per Bet Labs).
The outdoor and raucous Arrowhead Stadium is a hard place to play, especially once the weather is cold, and it’s not just road teams that have played worse in Kansas City this year (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).
- Chiefs Home Games: 52.86 o/u, 52.14 points scored, Chiefs 32, Opponents 20.14
- Chiefs Road Games: 55.19 o/u, 72.87 points scored, Chiefs 38.25, Opponents 34.62
Throughout the Reid era, the Chiefs have scored 2.81 fewer points at home and opponents have scored 6.04 fewer points in Kansas City.
Divisional rematches late in the season tend to go under, but the 73 points the Chiefs and Raiders combined to score in Week 13 has inflated this line a bit.
Collin Wilson: Broncos +6.5 (vs. Chargers)
4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
I think this line is simply too high. Especially in a game the Chargers likely end up pulling their starters after seeing the Chiefs comfortably ahead of the Raiders, which I'm confident will happen.
Even without Phillip Lindsay, I think the Broncos can have some success on the ground against a Chargers team that will eventually just want to get out of dodge fully healthy.
Scott Miller: Browns +13/Under 47.5 Teaser
4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
The Ravens are 5-1 in Lamar Jackson's six career starts, but only one of those wins (against the hapless Raiders) came by 13 or more points — and even in that game, they needed a fourth quarter defensive touchdown to pull it off.
Because of its run-heavy, clock-draining scheme under Jackson, Baltimore isn't built to blow teams out. And Cleveland isn't your typical unmotivated team in Week 17.
The Browns have no shot to make the playoffs, but if you think Baker Mayfield & Co. will be checked out, you haven't been paying attention to the post-Hue Jackson era in Cleveland.
In terms of the under, Baltimore's expected slow pace certainly plays a factor, but it's not the whole reason for the handicap.
Neither of these offenses is especially explosive or efficient — and it isn't because they've had a brutal schedule of opposing defenses.
The Browns and Ravens have faced the fifth- and fourth-easiest schedules of opposing defenses, respectively, per DVOA.
Ken Barkley: Bengals +14.5
4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
This is an incredible number when not viewed through the prism of playoff scenarios — it's 14.5 in a division game featuring a favorite that has been largely underwhelming with results, yet still heavily bet in most games.
The fact that Pittsburgh needs to win this game to have any shot of making the playoffs might sound sexy, but it isn't going to make a tackle or defend a pass or swim-move an offensive lineman.
In other words, that fact shouldn't impact the market like it seems to be.
When you bet motivation, you’re really flipping a coin.
The on-field matchups are in the Steelers' favor, just not to this degree. I like the Bengals at more than two touchdowns
Danny Donahue: Cardinals +13.5 (at Seahawks)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
As John mentioned earlier, late in the season, it pays to fade teams that have performed well against the spread, and to back teams that haven’t fared so well. This game offers the opportunity to do both.
The Seahawks fit into the category of teams holding an average cover margin of at least five points in Week 10 or beyond. Fading such teams has returned a 210-160-13 (56.8%) ATS record since 2005.
Arizona, on the other hand, is failing to cover by more than five points per game. Backing such teams in Week 10 or later has gone 200-177-7 (53.1%) ATS since 2005.
But the real money maker comes when teams from each respective category meet. Taking the strugglers against the team on a roll, based on the above descriptions, has left bettors with a 43-12-2 (78.2%) ATS record over that span.
Mark Gallant: 49ers +10 (at Rams)
4:25 p.m. ET on FOX
The Rams want to win this game, but I don’t care. Historical trends say the 49ers are the right way to go so that's where I'm putting my money.
I have two systems in Bet Labs that both include the final three weeks of the season. One is called Pythagorean under-performers and the other is called fade Pythagorean over-performers. The Niners fit both.
Basically, based on point differentials, the 49ers should have a better record than they do and the Rams should have a worse record than they do.
The under-performers system has hit at a 59% rate against the spread since 2005, while the over-performers fade system has hit at a 64.4% rate. Good enough for me.
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
Josh Applebaum: Titans +3.5 (vs. Colts)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC
Of all the Week 17 games, this one has the most meaning. The winner punches their postseason ticket, while the loser goes home.
Both teams have identical 9-6 records and the Titans enjoy home field advantage. However, nearly 80% of bets are laying the points with Andrew Luck and the road favorite Colts.
This lopsided public betting pushed the line from Colts -2.5 to -3.5, which cause sharp money to come in on the Titans. Using our Sports Insights Bet Signals, we’ve tracked five separate steam and reverse line moves on Tennessee at +3 or +3.5.
Also, the Titans are a divisional dog with a low total (43), which has been a profitable spot since 2003. They’re also in prime Fade the Public territory, getting only 21% of bets in what will likely be the most heavily bet game of the day. That gives the Titans massive contrarian value, as teams getting less than 30% of bets are 62% ATS this season.
Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
