Our staff has angles on a number of the most highly-anticipated Week 12 matchups, including a game with huge NFC playoff implications when the Seahawks visit the Panthers (-3.5).
We also have two on the same side of the Jaguars-Bills game in Orchard Park. For even more in-depth analysis, check out our betting guides for every single game.
Let's get into our 10 favorite bets for Week 12, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn't have. Our staff picks now sit at 87-91-12 (48.9%) for the season.
>> All odds pulled overnight on Friday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.
Evan Abrams: Panthers -2.5 (First Half)
1 pm ET on FOX
The Panthers dropped two straight games, and return home to face the Seahawks, who are coming off of a win against the Packers and well-rested due to playing on Thursday night last week.
Let’s start with Carolina. Losing to the Steelers in primetime was excusable, but the loss to Lions, who were down multiple weapons, was not.
I think Carolina will bounce back nicely in this spot at home facing a Seattle team on extra rest, which oddly enough has not been a great thing for Wilson. He is 9-15-1 against the spread (37.5%) in his career with extended rest, including 2-10-1 ATS (16.7%) in his past 13 games.
Newton is 40-22-1 (64.5%) against the first half spread at home, including 15-7-1 (68.2%) when he is coming off a loss in his last game. Since 2015, Cam is 6-0-1 against the first half spread at home off a loss, covering the spread by 9.7 PPG.
And from a pure matchup perspective, Like Carolina's advantage in the run game. Seattle ranks 19th against the rush and the Panthers' offensive line run-blocking (ninth) should have a large advantage over the Seahawks' D-line (23rd).
Matthew Freedman: Bucs-49ers Over 54
1 p.m. ET on FOX
Another week, another Bucs over.
Thanks to the magnificent combination of their high-scoring offense (26.7 points per game) and stone-worst defense (32.9 points per game allowed), the Bucs have an 8-2 over/under record this year, which is the best mark in the league for over bettors (per Bet Labs).
The Bucs are also banged up on defense. In the front seven, middle linebacker Kwon Alexander (knee, injured reserve) is out, as is backup middle linebacker Jack Cichy (ankle, IR). Weak side linebacker Lavonte David (knee) sat last week and didn’t practice on Wednesday. And defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul (knee, shoulder) is questionable.
The secondary might be even worse off than the front seven. Strong safety Chris Conte (knee, IR) and cornerback Vernon Hargreaves (shoulder, IR) are out. Slot corner M.J. Stewart (foot) has been out since Week 9, and safeties Justin Evans (toe) and Jordan Whitehead (concussion) are both questionable after missing practice on Wednesday.
This Bucs defense is beyond exploitable.
And as for the 49ers, they’re last in the league with a 42.0 Pro Football Focus coverage grade.
Both offenses should move the ball at will.
Ken Barkley: Ravens -11 (vs. Raiders)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
This may seem like the squarest of the square, but after Oakland won last week I’m sure they are at least getting some attention in the market from bettors as valuable.
I don’t buy it at all, though.
We already know how poorly this team is being coached and managed, and we also know how much Jon Gruden hates traveling (during their London trip he talked at great length about his dislike for long travel).
In their first trip to the east coast this season, the Raiders lost by eight to the Dolphins. And in the aforementioned London game, they lost by 24 to the Seahawks, though it might as well have been a million.
Now on back-to-back travel weeks (they were in Arizona last week), Oakland faces a mobile quarterback who requires different game-planning. I trust Gruden exactly zero percent to have his team ready to play and prepared in this spot.
Travis Reed: Jets +10.5
1 p.m. ET on CBS
I use the term “favorite” here rather loosely because this is one of those plays that I actually don’t like making, but the math tells me to do it.
When we last saw the Jets, they were being blown out by the Los Angeles Rams. Wait, what? Oh no, it was actually the Buffalo freaking Bills.
So after looking like a total laughing stock against the worst team in the league, I’m throwing my money down on the Jets against the best bet in football over the past decade.
You don’t always have to like every bet you make. In this case, I cringed as I hit submit, but I’ll continue to trust the numbers and data that points towards the Jets in a good spot here.
Stuckey: Browns +3 (at Bengals)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
I can confidently say that the Bengals have had the worst linebacker play of any team this season — and now the position is in as bad of shape as it has been all season.
The team placed Preston Brown on IR this week, and Vigil is not practicing. Meanwhile, Vontaze Burfict is clearly not at 100%.
That leaves Hardy Nickerson in the middle and he simply doesn’t have the speed or coverage skills to match up with NFL-caliber tight ends and running backs. Along with Vincent Rey and Jordan Evans, this might be the slowest linebacker corps I’ve seen in quite some time.
As you might expect, the Bengals' linebackers have allowed the most yards of any group in the league, and rank 32nd in the NFL defending running backs in the passing game, per Football Outsiders.
Just look at what a one-dimensional Ravens' offense running a college scheme did in rookie Lamar Jackson’s first start. The linebackers knew what was coming and still couldn’t stop it.
Baker Mayfield is a much more polished passer than Jackson and thrives when throwing to his backs out of the backfield. Expect big days from Nick Chubb and Duke Johnson out of the backfield.
The Browns can also take advantage of that unit with Mayfield’s legs (as Jackson did last week rushing for over 100 yards) while Landry and Njoku should have plenty of space in the middle of the field.
Cleveland’s rushing attack, which ranks seventh in the NFL at 4.8 yards per carry, should thrive against a Bengals defense that allows 5.0 yards per rush (30th in the NFL). In fact, the Bengals’ defensive line ranks 31st in the NFL in adjusted line yards, per Football Outsiders.
On the other side of the ball, the Browns' defensive line can exploit Cincy's abysmal offensive line, especially with starting left tackle Cordy Glenn (who hasn’t been effective) listed on the injury report.
Green also didn’t practice on Wednesday, and without him at 100%, the Browns have a capable enough secondary to contain a Bengals' passing attack that has already lost a number of key targets.
Bottom line: The Browns can take advantage of the Bengals' primary weaknesses, especially when on offense. They are also much healthier and coming off of a bye. I think Cincy's free fall continues.
Chris Raybon: Bills +3 (vs. Jaguars)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
At this point, the Jaguars aren’t much different from the Bills. The Jags rank sixth in defensive DVOA; the Bills rank second. Six of each team’s seven losses have come against opponents currently .500 or better.
But the Jags still have Blake Bortles while the Bills will get back Josh Allen, who has more wins than Bortles over the past seven weeks despite the fact he hasn’t played a snap since Week 6.
Allen has also gotten better at limiting negative plays, taking three sacks and committing just one turnover over his past two starts. This is anyone’s game, so give me the team getting +3 at home.
Matt LaMarca: Bills +3 (vs. Jaguars)
1 p.m. ET on CBS
The Bills are not a particularly good football team, but I’m not sure what Jacksonville has done to warrant being three-point favorites on the road. They’re known for being a good defensive team, but they haven’t been nearly as strong in that department this season.
In fact, you could make a good argument that the Bills are actually the better defensive team: They currently rank second in defensive DVOA (per Football Outsiders). The Bills are also expected to get Josh Allen back this week, and they’ve been more competent offensively with Allen in the lineup.
The sharps also appear to love the Bills this week. They’ve received just 36% of the tickets at the time of writing, but those bets have accounted for 58% of the money.
Scott Miller: Giants-Eagles Over 47
1 p.m. ET on FOX
We know the Eagles can score on the Giants, putting up 34 on New York a few weeks ago in the Meadowlands. They might not quite match that again on Sunday, but playing against the NFL's worst pass rush, Carson Wentz will have all day to pick apart an underperforming Giants secondary.
I expect this to be Golden Tate's breakout game for Philly; he has had a few weeks to get used to playing with Wentz and now faces the 28th-ranked defense in DVOA at defending slot receivers.
The Giants' terrible offensive line is usually a concern for Eli Manning & Co., but it shouldn't be a massive disadvantage against an Eagles team that ranks just 20th in adjusted sack rate.
If Eli Manning has time to throw, Odell Beckham should have an absolutely massive game against a banged up Eagles secondary that just got roasted for 14 catches, 249 yards and two touchdowns combined from the Saints' Michael Thomas and Tre'Quan Smith.
Odell has better big-play ability than Smith and is just as proficient of a red-zone weapon as Thomas, so this is a nightmare matchup for the Eagles in every sense.
The kicker? Both of the Eagles and Giants defenses are falling off a cliff, ranking 26th and 27th in Weighted DVOA, which factors in recent results more than games from the early season. Is it injuries? A lack of motivation? Probably all of the above.
Given how these two teams match up, I thought this total would fall somewhere in the 50s. Take those extra few points of value and run.
Ian Hartitz: Chargers -13 (vs. Cardinals)
4:05 p.m. ET on FOX
The Cardinals’ new-found "success" on offense under offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich is encouraging for David Johnson fantasy owners, but they’ve scored 21 or fewer points in mouth-watering matchups against the 49ers, Chiefs and Raiders.
Up next is a Chargers defense that's expected to have Bosa for a full complement of snaps for the first time this season.
Add in an injury-riddled Cardinals defense and rookie quarterback on the road, and I’ll take the Chargers to win by at least two touchdowns.
John Ewing: Dolphins +7.5 (at Colts)
4:25 p.m. ET on CBS
NFL lines are set based on recent performance. The Colts trucked the Titans in a 38-10 win last week as Luck threw three touchdowns and Hilton caught nine balls for 155 receiving yards and two scores.
Given Indy's recent play, it's fair to suggest that the Colts' line will be inflated in Week 12.
Contrarian gamblers can profit by fading teams after strong showings at home. Since 2003, teams that won their previous game at home by 21 or more points have gone 173-221-14 (44%) ATS the following week.
Bettors fading teams like the Colts have returned a profit of +43.73 units over that span.
Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.
