With eight weeks to go in the NFL season, it's an excellent time to check in on the season leader markets.
Betting on season leaders can be a fun way to invest in the NFL regular season, your own version of fantasy football with key names to watch and root for each Sunday. These are markets I've tracked closely in the past and have hit some long shots.
This is a perfect time to place some long shot bets as Derrick Henry and Ja'Marr Chase are starting to separate themselves from the field in the rushing and receiving categories. NFL often stands for Not For Long, so we'll bet on volatility and look down the board. These are 0.25- or 0.5-unit sprinkles at long numbers in hopes that one or two hit or at least get close enough to give us options later.
Let's take a look at eight major season leader categories.
NFL Stat Leaders: Bets To Make
NFL Futures: Most Passing Yards
We're going chalk here, but don't worry — long shots are coming.
Geno Smith has led this category for weeks before finally falling off the pace Sunday … because the Seahawks had a bye week.
Smith leads the NFL in completions and attempts per game. He's at 38 attempts per game, more than two ahead of the next closest competitor, and Ryan Grubb's offense has been super pass-heavy all season. That's unlikely to change anytime soon with Seattle's unreliable defense leaving Smith in plenty of pass scripts as the Seahawks chase the playoffs, often from behind.
Smith also leads the league in passing yards per game at 284, 15 yards ahead of all but one guy, and the next five guys in YPG all play for teams that could be holding leads down the stretch and running the football.
Even still, I wouldn't normally go chalk on a bet like this with two full months to go, but Smith's bye week bought us precious value. This exact bet was +130 one week ago. Smith didn't play — out of sight out of mind — and his odds dropped to +210 with basically nothing changing. That makes this worth a play.
Bet: Geno Smith +210 (BetRivers)
Most Passing Touchdowns
We're actually going chalk on this one too — but sports books don't seem to realize it.
Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson lead the NFL in passing touchdowns with 24 each, and with no other quarterback above 17, this would appear to be a three-man race.
But until the last couple games, Jordan Love actually led the league in passing touchdowns per game, averaging three per game over his first five starts. He didn't throw one in the past two games while playing hurt, and he already missed two games earlier, so Love sits at 15 touchdowns, well off the pace.
But Love's healthy pace is still three per game, and coming off the bye week, he's as close to healthy as he'll get this season. With eight games to go, he would pace to 39 touchdowns, just barely off the 40.8-touchdown pace of the four leaders.
Green Bay will likely need every score it can get as it pushes for the playoffs. Love should get into the mix if he stays healthy enough.
Bet: Jordan Love +2000 (Caesars)
Most Rushing Yards
Derrick Henry has won the rushing triple crown — leading in attempts, yards and touchdowns — twice and is on pace to do it again, by margin. If he stumbles, Saquon Barkley is the closest competitor, and then it's a 300-yard drop before any other name.
This is going to Henry or Barkley in all likelihood, but running backs are volatile. Barkley has a long injury history and Henry is 30 with an absolutely massive workload history. It's not worth betting chalk on either of those two at such a short number, so the better play is a long shot and a prayer, effectively a bet on neither Henry nor Barkley finishing the season healthy.
Enter Jonathan Taylor, a guy who won the triple crown in 2021.
Taylor runs behind the second-best offensive line in the league and gets a heavy workload. He's 15th in yards thanks to three missed games, but he's fourth in yards per game behind Henry, Barkley and Joe Mixon, who also missed time and runs behind a far worse line. Taylor is at 88 yards per game, and that's even higher when Anthony Richardson plays, so that's a possible path to upside if Joe Flacco is benched.
If it's not King Henry or Saquon, we may as well gamble on a long shot who's done this before, especially since he's about half this price at most books.
Bet: Jonathan Taylor +10000 (BetRivers)
Most Rushing Touchdowns
Again, this is Derrick Henry's category to lose. He already has 12 rushing touchdowns, at least one in all but one game and will get plenty of easy opportunities down the stretch in Baltimore's offense. He also typically gets better as the weather turns toward winter.
But Jalen Hurts is only two touchdowns behind Henry and may have a real shot to top him, even without a Henry injury.
Hurts ran for only two scores in Philadelphia's first five games, but exploded for eight rushing touchdowns in his past four. He's now scored a rushing touchdown in 22 of his past 33 regular-season games, with 32 total touchdowns in that stretch thanks to eight multi-score games and two with three touchdowns.
That's almost one rushing touchdown per game thanks to the Tush Push, and now that the Eagles appear to be going back to that more often and getting the offense going for more scores, Hurts has a real chance to push 20 touchdowns on the ground.
If you really want to get aggressive, you can also bet him at +700 to lead all players in rushing and receiving touchdowns at bet365. Hurts likely won't catch one, and Henry already has two, so Hurts is four behind in that category, but it's a nice escalator.
Bet: Jalen Hurts +550 (BetMGM)
Most Receiving Yards
This category is probably going to one of two studs.
Only six players are averaging at least 80 receiving yards a game. Four of them have missed multiple games injured and the other two — Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase — are both healthy, averaging over 90 yards per game and blowing away the competition. Any bet here is likely a bet on both Jefferson and Chase missing a couple games each. Even then, we probably need to get to 1,500 yards.
Only one name is ahead of both guys in yards per game: Houston's Nico Collins. Collins is at a ridiculous 113 yards per game and that would be even higher if not for him missing half of one of those games. It might also go up even more now that Stefon Diggs is out for the season.
Of course, Collins has also missed the past five games. Even so, his 567 yards rank 18th in half a season played, and he should finally be back Monday night. At his current pace, Collins would end up at 1,359 yards — even with the time missed. He's a sizable long shot at this point, but while he's priced as short as +1000 at some books, he's way too long at +6000 at BetRivers and thus bettable.
George Pickens could also be worth a sprinkle. He's already top 10 in yards and has already had his bye. He's also seen his yards per game increase from 60 to 92 with Russell Wilson at quarterback. Always a threat for a long play, he could make a push for the top of the yardage ranks.
Bets: Nico Collins +6000 (BetRivers), George Pickens +8000 (DraftKings)
Most Receptions
This may be one of the most open races on the list.
Ja'Marr Chase leads the NFL with 66 receptions, one ahead of Garrett Wilson, but both of those guys should slow down with more time next to Tee Higgins and Davante Adams. Giants rookie receiver Malik Nabers heads into the bye third on the list with 61 catches, even after missing two games, and is the betting leader at most books.
I'm opting for the guy one behind Nabers with 60 receptions, and that's old faithful, Travis Kelce.
Taylor Swift's boyfriend had a slow start to the season with only eight catches on four targets per game over the first three games, but he's exploded since, averaging 8.7 receptions on 10.7 targets per game.
So, what happened to cause that Kelce jump? Rashee Rice got hurt. Rice averaged eight catches on 9.7 targets for three games and was the clear go-to target for Patrick Mahomes. However, when Rice went on Injured Reserve after three games, the Chiefs rebuilt the offense with Kelce in that go-to role. That leap in targets and receptions exactly coincides with Rice's injury absence.
If we assume that post-Rice pace for the rest of the season, Kelce would finish with 129 receptions, breaking the all-time record for tight ends. That would also have led the league in three of the past six seasons.
This is my favorite bet of the bunch.
Bet: Travis Kelce +700 (DraftKings)
Most Receiving Touchdowns
Ja'Marr Chase leads here too and is on pace to take the receiving triple crown and maybe cash that OPOY ticket we snagged at +1300. Chase has 10 receiving scores after his huge Thursday night and is three ahead of second place.
That actually makes this category ripe for an upset as there's just one leader ahead of a pack of 16 guys with between five and seven touchdowns. So, I'm going with another old faithful here and a name we cashed last year in this category at +6000.
Mike Evans is a future Hall of Famer, with 100 receiving touchdowns already. He has five seasons with at least 12 scores and, with his size, has been a consistent red-zone threat throughout his career.
Evans caught that 100th touchdown early in a Monday night game against Baltimore a month ago, but hurt his hamstring on the play, missing most of that game and all three games since. Now, Tampa Bay heads into the bye week, and this is a bet on Evans getting healthy enough to return after the bye.
If and when he does return, he'll do so with Chris Godwin on IR. Evans will be the clear target for Baker Mayfield — who, remember, is tied for the NFL lead in passing touchdowns at 24.
Even with the missed time, Evans is at six touchdowns, one off second place. If we're assuming Chase doesn't win this category for whatever reason, that means Evans is right in the mix with as good a history as anyone of catching touchdowns.
Evans is heading into the bye, so you may want to wait to place your bet. Like Geno Smith above, out of sight out of mind could push Evans' odds down a touch, and there's still a chance he won't be healthy yet either. He's a must bet if he comes out of the bye ready to go.
Bet: Mike Evans +1800 (FanDuel)
Most Sacks
Time for our longest shot in the column because I just can't quit Micah Parsons.
Parsons had a sack in the season opener, then was held sack-less playing hurt for three games and missed the next four games entirely. He finally returned Sunday and tripled his sack total with Jordan Mailata out, getting to three on the season.
Trey Hendrickson leads this category with 11, which means Parsons has to make up eight sacks with eight games to go, but no one in the NFL racks up sacks in bunches quite like Micah Parsons. He has 12 games with multiple sacks in his 55 career outings, better than once every five games.
Parsons has a juicy closing schedule, starting with this Monday night against C.J. Stroud, whose 34 times sacked rank second in the NFL. Parsons will face five of the nine most-sacked quarterbacks down the stretch, four of whom are currently missing their blind-side protectors at tackle. Parsons should get to double-digit sacks, and that means +20000 is just too juicy to pass up on.
Bet: Micah Parsons +20000 (bet365)
