As we head into the first true week of NFL preseason football, let's take a step back and look at the bigger picture of season-long futures betting and how the public is projecting the odds" in the Super Bowl and conference championship markets.
If the data provided by BetMGM is any indication, it's not the traditional teams that bettors are targeting for this year's NFL season.
In the Super Bowl market, the Bills, Buccaneers and Chiefs are the three favorites to take home the Lombardi Trophy, but none of the teams are the top liability for sportsbooks.
That would be the Broncos, who acquired Russell Wilson in the offseason. Denver has attracted 10.1% of the betting tickets and 10.4% of the handle at a consistent +1600 price.
While the Bills have amassed the most tickets and the biggest handle, their +600 price means they’re as big of a liability as Denver.
The other team that bettors are favoring is the Chargers, who have moved from +2500 to +1400 after generating 7.5% of the tickets and 8.1% of the Super Bowl market handle.
Eight of the last nine Super Bowl champions opened the season at +1200 or shorter — the Eagles (+3900) being the lone exception in 2017 — but a Chargers or Broncos title would buck that trend.
In the NFC futures market, the biggest liability is a team — the Lions — that won just three games in the prior season,
Detroit is +5000 to win the NFC, but that's not stopping bettors for making the Lions the team that’s the second-most wagered on in the market, only behind the Eagles, who have moved from +1800 to +1200 odds.
The conference-favorite Buccaneers have generated the sixth-most tickets and the fourth-biggest handle.
On the AFC side, things are a bit more straightforward.
The favored Bills have gotten the most wagers as well as the most money, but once again the biggest liability is Denver, which has attracted 12.8% of the tickets and 11.6% of the handle at a +850 number.
Unlike its Super Bowl odds, which have remained steady, Denver opened at +1100 in this market before dipping to its current price.
