Five weeks into the new NFL season, it's time for a pulse check.
It feels like we're finally starting to get a feel for which teams are good — the Vikings and Commanders come to mind — and which ones should start thinking about next season, like the Patriots and Browns.
Last week, we looked at 13 NFL teams sitting at 2-2, trying to get a sense of direction. Now five weeks into the season, it's easy to start burying teams sitting below .500 and moving on to the teams that matter in the postseason picture. But do any of these sub-.500 teams still have a pulse?
The Cardinals, Dolphins, and Giants all won Sunday, two in big upsets, to claw back to 2-3. The Bengals didn't get the win but showed signs of life, despite falling to 1-4. The 49ers are still NFC favorites somehow, despite a 2-3 record.
So do any of these sub-.500 teams still have life? Is it time to invest in futures, or should we bury these teams and move on? It's time for a pulse check.
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Arizona Cardinals (2-3)
The Cardinals got the biggest upset of Week 5, taking down the 49ers 24-23 in the final minutes.
The underlying stats say the win was deserved. Kyler Murray scampered for a touchdown on Arizona's second offensive play and the Cardinals moved the ball all half, but a blocked field goal and unfortunately-timed interception left Arizona down 23-10 at the half when it probably should've been up 16-13.
In most scenarios, on the road against a heavily favored division juggernaut like the 49ers, that's all she wrote. But a much maligned Cardinals defense blanked the mighty 49ers offense in the second half. Check out San Francisco's drive chart after halftime:
- 4 plays, 11 yards, interception
- 11 plays, 43 yards, turnover on downs
- 8 plays, 61 yards, fumble
- 2 plays, 15 yards, interception
That's effectively four second-half turnovers, two of them in the red zone, and San Francisco also settled for three field goals in the red zone.
But while that sounds like DC Nick Rallis's unit is standing up and coming through, history tells us turnovers are unreliable and that red zone defense is unstable. Most of the time the 49ers convert a couple more times and that's that, and in most games San Francisco isn't missing an injured kicker either.
This is the same Cardinals defense that got smoked to the tune of 42 points by Kliff Kingsbury and the Commanders one week ago — a defense that still ranks 27th by DVOA through five games, even after shutting down the mighty Niners.
Arizona's offense is pretty good. Kyler Murray finally looks healthy again and is playing great. But a defense this poor requires an elite offense to overcome, and Arizona is probably above average and maybe even top 10, but that's likely not enough — especially in a division loaded with great offense.
The Cardinals travel to Lambeau next, then host the Chargers on Monday night, then likely get Miami's last game without Tua Tagovailoa before games against the Bears and Jets. Those are all winnable games for this squad. But with Jordan Love, Justin Herbert, Caleb Williams, and Aaron Rodgers facing this defense, they're all pretty losable too.
The best thing the Cardinals have going right now is their 2-0 division record. That's the safest path to the playoffs — a division title.
If you're looking to fade both Seattle and San Francisco, maybe Arizona's your team. But this looks more like a frisky team with enough offense to pull off the occasional upset, like Sunday, more than one ready to make a serious run at the division.
FTN has the Cardinals as having a 16% to make the playoffs, suggesting some value on Arizona to miss the playoffs at -250 (Caesars, implied 71%).
VERDICT: I don't need to fade Arizona's futures at that price, but I'm not ready to invest either. This looks like a fun underdog to bet in good spots, like as a long dog in divisional matchups.
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New York Giants (2-3)
The Giants went to Seattle and punched the Seahawks in the mouth on Sunday, and they probably should've won comfortably.
New York drove 16 plays for 79 yards on its first time with the ball but fumbled at the goal line for a 100-yard TD return. That's an immediate 14-point swing against the Giants, the kind that would typically bury a road underdog from the jump.
But the Giants dominated the first half. Rookie RB Tyrone Tracy had a big game with Devin Singletary out and the G-Men dominated in the trenches and controlled the clock. Seattle only ran 19 plays of offense the entire first half and ended up running the football on just seven designed runs all game.
The Giants finished the game with 15 additional minutes of possession. They chewed up the clock and stayed ahead of the sticks, going 7-of-16 on third downs, and they win this game with ease if not for going 1-of-4 in the red zone.
New York's defensive line dominated and got to Geno Smith seven times for sacks and repeatedly on pressures throughout the game, and what had been a pretty good Seattle offense didn't even reach the red zone for the first time all game until the fourth quarter.
And yes, Seattle should've had a first down on the 13 down three late when an egregious missed penalty led to a blocked field goal TD for the Giants, but that swing should never have mattered in the first place had Seattle not caught so many breaks just to get to that point.
That win moved the Giants to 2-3, and the truth is that this team could very well be 3-2 or even 4-1.
New York got crushed by Minnesota in its opener, but that loss doesn't look as damaging in hindsight. The Giants barely lost to Washington the following week and might have beaten them if their kicker hadn't been injured (though the Commanders were super unlucky in the red zone too), and that looks like a pretty good result now. New York was also close enough to have beaten Dallas on a Thursday night.
So what do we make of the Giants now?
By DVOA, New York is more subpar than terrible. The Giants rank just below average on both offense and defense, but 23rd overall, in part to terrible special teams play for the most part. Those aren't the metrics of one of the worst teams in the league like many, including myself, painted New York as, but they're not the numbers of a playoff contender either.
The Giants are 1-3 in the NFC and 0-2 in the division, and though the top two teams in the NFC East don't look as strong as expected, the other team Washington has now emerged as a potential contender too. That means four more division games as a significant underdog.
Up next for New York are the Bengals, Eagles, Steelers, and Commanders. The Giants will be underdogs in all four, and likely in all but one or two remaining games. That's not the formula for a playoff contender or even one on the fringes.
Credit New York for its big victory Sunday. Brian Daboll and Daniel Jones perform well ATS as underdogs, and the Giants defensive line is good enough to dominate particular matchups and help New York pull off the occasional upset.
But Giants fans shouldn't get their hopes up too far beyond that — especially with a ticking clock on Daniel Jones with that contract trigger looming.
VERDICT: The Giants may have more of a pulse than I gave them credit for, but this offense still can't do much and their playoff hopes are still dead on arrival.
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Miami Dolphins (2-3)
The Dolphins won the ugliest game on the Sunday slate, 15-10 over the Patriots, and the less we say about the game the better.
The teams combined for 6-of-24 on third down, 1-of-4 in the red zone, four turnovers, and six field goal attempts in a bad excuse for football and a game someone had to win. Miami was the better team slightly, but New England had a chance to score late and get the win.
The Dolphins offense continues to look absolutely miserable without Tua Tagovailoa. In 39 drives since Tua got hurt, this offense has scored two touchdowns. One was deep into garbage time against Tennessee, and the other came this game on an excruciating 15-play, 80-yard drive. The offense has turned it over (including on downs) 12 of those 39 drives, almost one in three.
By no measure do the Dolphins have any real reason to have a pulse or any hope for the season to come. Miami ranks 31st in overall DVOA, including second to last offensively, and those numbers flatter the Dolphins if you've been unfortunate enough to watch this team (and make you wonder just how bad the Browns must be to be behind Miami in both).
Here's the thing, though.
Sports are binary, to a cruel degree. All that matters at the end of the day are wins and losses.
Miami could've lost Sunday, but it didn't. It could've lost Week 1, its one Tagovailoa game, and probably should've.
But the Dolphins are 2-3 and now get a badly-needed bye week before potentially winnable games against the Colts and Cardinals.
Split those games and Miami gets to 3-4 heading into Week 8, when Tagovailoa will reportedly be back — for a trip to Buffalo. That game won't be easy, nor any of the back half of Miami's loaded schedule. But replaced one of the worst offenses in the league with one of the best and you'll be surprised how differently things can look.
Miami quietly gained an entire game on the division on Sunday. Both the Bills and Jets lost for the second week in a row. The Dolphins are actually tied with the Jets in the standings and only one game behind Buffalo. That feels impossible, but it's true.
It's still a long, uphill climb, and Miami might just be bad — especially if Tagovailoa can't come back or doesn't look good when he does.
But think about dabbling in some long-shot Dolphins futures on a body that still has the faintest of pulses. Next Monday night, either the Bills or Jets are guaranteed to get a big division win in a huge head-to-head matchup. That should push Miami's odds even lower, gone and forgotten on the bye week.
Make a mental note to circle back and think about investing.
If the Dolphins steal one or two of those games against the Colts and Cardinals, it's not out of the question that this team could be playing for the division lead Week 8 in Buffalo.
VERDICT: Don't forget about the lowly Dolphins, who might've saved their season on Sunday. Come back next Monday night and find the right future to nibble in case Miami turns things around.
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Cincinnati Bengals (1-4)
I was ready to leave the Bengals for dead after they dropped to 1-4 Sunday in an early candidate for game of the year.
Cincinnati lucked into a huge swing just before halftime, eight gifted points on a Baltimore defensive mistake compounded by a late hit, and the Bengals took a 17-14 lead into the second half and tried to hold on for dear life as Joe Burrow and the offense matched the Ravens score for score.
But a late Burrow interception helped Baltimore send the game to overtime, and there Cincinnati lucked into a huge Lamar Jackson fumble but was unable to take it the distance for the walkoff score, then settled for three runs into the line and a shanked 53-yard field goal that would've won the game.
On the next play, Derrick Henry rumbled for 51 yards after Cincinnati had shut him down the entire rest of the game, Baltimore kicked the winner, and the Bengals dropped to 1-4 and were left for dead.
Or were they?
Always check the schedule: three of the next four Bengals games some against the Giants, Browns, and Raiders, three of the worst teams in the NFL. And though the Bengals are losing, they're not playing bad football.
The offense, in particular, is playing great. This might even be the best Cincinnati regular season offense of the Joe Burrow era.
Burrow is absolutely balling. He was at 0.51 EPA per play on Sunday, including 1.17 on 11 late down passes, and the metrics match the eye test with Joe Cool — he's been one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL through five weeks. He's also just now hitting stride with Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, maybe the best 1-2 WR duo in the league.
Cincinnati's offense ranks second in the league in EPA per drive, and the Bengals are second in success rate too. Cincinnati is moving the ball, consistently and effectively — and offenses this good usually win games.
So why aren't the Bengals winning?
Well… they're mostly getting unlucky.
Cincinnati is 1-4, but those four losses have all come by one score, by a combined sum of just 15 points.
The Bengals could've beaten the Ravens Sunday, despite giving up 520 yards, and maybe should've. They could and should have beaten both the Commanders and Chiefs too, and even the ugly Week 1 loss to the Patriots was close and winnable.
In another universe, that luck evens out, Cincinnati splits those four coin-flip games, and the Bengals are 3-2 and tied for the division lead. Heck, in some orange-and-black universe out there, Cincinnati might even be 5-0 and the class of the NFL. This offense is certainly deserving.
The defense has been mostly terrible, though. The secondary got shredded by Lamar Jackson and Jayden Daniels, though it's worth noting that Cincinnati has faced some tough offenses so far. And even in those games, the Bengals offense was good enough to compete and win.
Of course, sports are binary. The Bengals lost those games, and 1-4 is bad. Per NFL Network, only 6% of 1-4 teams made the playoffs the last 35 years. That's not great, but there's obvious selection bias in there — most 1-4 teams are not top-three offenses with Burrow and Chase — and there's an extra playoff spot now.
Still, it will be an uphill battle the entire rest of the way for Cincinnati.
This next schedule should help. Beat the Giants, Browns, and Raiders and Cincinnati gets back to 4-5 at the midpoint, or even 5-4 if they beat the Eagles too.
Cincinnati is at +240 to make the playoffs (FanDuel), an implied 42% that shows a little edge to the Bengals actual chances. That's not worth playing, nor the current division odds.
If you do want to back Cincinnati, you may be wise to play them game to game — I already bet them against the Giants for Week 6 — and to invest in this offense.
Joe Burrow has dropped to +2500 to win MVP (Caesars) in a wide-open race with no real front-runner. Burrow leads the league in passing touchdowns with 12, and he's 15 yards away from top three in yards. MVPs have to win games though, usually enough to get to a No. 1 or 2 seed. That's a tough ask for Burrow — the Bengals would pretty much have to be perfect the rest of the way.
MVP isn't out of the question, but how about one or two other awards?
Burrow is +900 to win Comeback Player of the Year (DraftKings), a race widely presumed to come down to him, Aaron Rodgers, and Kirk Cousins. With neither of those guys' teams exactly lighting the world on fire, why not Burrow at the long number?
Or could Burrow be in play for Offensive Player of the Year? Maybe he can't win MVP if the Bengals go 8-9 or 9-8, but if he continues at his current pace and finishes at 4,650 yards and 41 TDs, could that be enough for a stats-first award like OPOY? He's +15000 to win that (BetRivers).
VERDICT: The Bengals should not be left for dead. This team has a real pulse and a lot of life left in it still. Look for ways to invest in Cincinnati, both now and in the future.
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San Francisco 49ers (2-3)
We covered the 49ers game at length above against the Cardinals.
For the second time this season, San Francisco held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter against a significantly worse division opponent, and for the second time this season, the 49ers lost anyway.
San Francisco dominated in its two wins, and you can make a pretty good case that the 49ers were the better team in all three losses against the Cardinals, Rams, and Vikings but gave the games away with self-inflicted mistakes.
In theory, that should leave plenty of room for optimism for a team this talented.
The 49ers still rank in the top quarter of the league by DVOA. They're still top 10 on both offense and defense. They're well-coached, they're loaded with talent, and they're playing this well despite injuries up and down the roster, with guys like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel set to return soon enough.
But again, sports are binary — and at some point it matters that these losses are all starting to add up.
The Super Bowl losers place a first-place schedule, and they already got through the softest part. They got to play the Jets in Aaron Rodgers' first game action in two years. They loafed through the easiest game on the schedule against the Patriots.
But games against the Rams and Cardinals are supposed to be wins, not losses, and now the schedule gets really, really hard. Just take a look at the schedule the rest of the way:
- at Seattle this Thursday
- Kansas City
- Dallas
- bye
- at Tampa Bay
- Seattle
- at Green Bay
- at Buffalo
- Chicago
- LA Rams
- at Miami
- Detroit
- at Arizona
There's not an easy win left on the schedule. The Rams might be it, but battles with Matt Stafford and Sean McVay are never easy and LA already beat the 49ers. So too with the Cardinals, who could need that final home game to make the playoffs. A home game against Caleb Williams isn't terrible, but he's improving rapidly and should be better late in the season. Miami stinks now but should be healthy again late and gets to play at home.
The Chiefs, Lions, Packers, and Bills are tough. The Bucs and Cowboys might belong on that list. And then there are two games against Seattle, which don't look quite as tough as they did a week ago, but could still be difficult against Mike Macdonald, a coach known for his defenses shutting down these high-powered Shanahan-style offenses.
It's time to face the facts: the 49ers have a real chance of missing the playoffs.
FTN projects San Francisco at just 9.4 wins, more than a full win below the posted 10.5 win total. The 49ers are listed at just 53% to make the playoffs, pretty close to a coin flip — about equal to the Steelers or Broncos, for reference. That implies value on San Francisco +150 to miss the playoffs (BetRivers).
It might sound crazy to think of the 49ers missing the postseason entirely, but consider this: Kyle Shanahan has been a head coach for seven previous seasons. He made the NFC Championship in four of them — and missed the playoffs entirely the other three years.
When things go well for Shanahan, they're great… but when they go sideways, the bottom can sometimes fall out. Brock Purdy is making some big throws but the 49ers are falling in love with the pass, and Purdy is starting to pay for some of those risky, mistake throws he tries. San Francisco keeps making mistakes.
If you want to fade San Francisco, the most direct way is likely by supporting the Seahawks — especially since San Francisco heads to Seattle on Thursday night. It's a tough spot for the Seahawks with an exhausted defense reeling after being on the field all game against the Lions on Monday and then the Giants yesterday, but it's a game Seattle will have had circled since the schedule came out.
FTN projects Seattle at 9.5 wins, just barely ahead of San Francisco and well ahead of the posted 8.5 win total. FTN gives the Seahawks 45% odds to win the NFC West, implying huge value on the division odds at +240 (DraftKings), especially if you like Seattle at home on Thursday night.
It's time to consider the impossible: the 49ers might really miss the playoffs.
VERDICT: I'm already in big on Seattle futures and have been recommending backing the Seahawks every week since the preseason. That +240 division bet is a good one. And with the 49ers still favored to win the NFC, for a team with a coin flip chance of missing the playoffs, that implies serious value across the conference. Pick your favorite sleeper and invest.
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