The 2024 NFL Draft is in the books, so it's a good time for a stock report on NFL futures.
The NFL offseason is a marathon, not a sprint. The NFL is a 12-month 365-day event now, just the way the league likes it. The Super Bowl is forever ago now, but we've barely stopped thinking about football after a month of trades and free-agent signings, followed by a month of wild draft speculation.
Now, finally, we have rosters mostly in place before the slightest of soft spots in the NFL calendar.
So whose stock is up as the dust settles on the NFL Draft and offseason? What team's futures are worth investing in, and whose stock is down? Let's jump right in.
Stock Down: Atlanta Falcons
It was all lining up for Atlanta.
The Falcons brought in a new coaching staff and added a top 10-to-15 QB in Kirk Cousins to a roster that was ready-made to win games and compete for a division title. Add to that a defense that performed above expectations and a very winnable division, and the Falcons were looking like a popular 2024 sleeper.
On top of all that, Atlanta was set up well in the draft, with the No. 8 pick and a chance to add the top defender in the draft, plus an extra third-round pick from the Calvin Ridley trade. It was an opportunity to add a top-10 talent and three more top-80 players to a roster already set to contend in the NFC South.
Welp.
Atlanta made one of the most stunning draft picks in recent memory in Michael Penix Jr., and whether that works out long term — consider me extremely skeptical — it completely punted on a top-10 draft pick adding even the slightest semblance of value to the team the next couple of years while Cousins' contract is guaranteed.
What are you doing, Falcons? You went out to get Cousins to make a playoff push now. This was your best chance to add one more high-end talent, either Rome Odunze to give Drake London a receiver running mate or your pick of literally any defender in the draft (or a trade down for even more picks and assets!). Instead, they have a shiny new backup QB.
Let's put it another way.
The Falcons used a No. 8 pick on a player they hope they won't have to play the next couple of seasons, and they conveniently forgot to tell their new franchise QB it was happening until they made the pick. Cousins hasn't even met most of his teammates yet. How is he doing to lead a locker room now? What happens when the fans call for Penix after the first bad Cousins game? What happens in the locker room?
The extra Ridley pick disappeared too, with the Falcons using it to trade up in the second round to take Clemson DT Ruke Orhorhoro (say that 10 times fast), who may have been available eight picks later anyway and another guy who will struggle to play meaningful snaps this year behind Atlanta's biggest defensive strength, tackles Grady Jarrett and David Onyemata.
Atlanta leaves the draft with no definite starters and a locker room potentially in worse shape than it did before, despite starting with four top-80 picks and one in the top 10.
Stock Up: New York Jets
The Jets may not have left the draft with any clear starters either unless third-round WR Malachi Corley steps into the lineup, but sometimes you win just by holding steady and watching the teams around you drop.
The Patriots used the No. 3 pick on Drake Maye. Maye was the top player on my draft board, but he steps into a very difficult situation in New England on a young team lacking talent, and it will be a long road ahead. Both Buffalo and Miami lost a ton of roster talent this offseason, the cold realities of a salary-cap world, and neither team moved the needle much in the draft.
The Bills took WR Keon Coleman at the top of the second, a pick many had much lower in rankings, failing to trade for Brandon Aiyuk or Tee Higgins. Now Coleman and Khalil Shakur lead the depleted receiving corps, and second-round S Cole Bishop steps in to fill a gaping hole left by departed safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
The Dolphins lost Christian Wilkins, Xavien Howard, Andrew Van Ginkel and Raekwon Davis from the defense alone, and their biggest draft additions were a swing tackle and a rotational pass rusher.
The Jets didn't make a big draft splash. Olu Fashanu should be a future offensive line starter and will likely play this year given Tyron Smith's health. He reinforces what was a bottom-10 line a year ago and now looks like a possible top-five unit. That's a huge swing for an offense that already has Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson and then added Mike Williams and of course the return of Aaron Rodgers. Health will be huge for this team, but that's where Fashanu's added depth is huge.
Don't forget, New York's biggest draft additions were already on the roster. That would be Aaron Rodgers, RT Morgan Moses, and edge rusher Haason Reddick, all players New York traded draft picks for.
The Jets were already a winner before the draft even started. That the rest of the division did little to slow their rise is just an added bonus.
I'm in on the Jets at +240 to win the AFC East and still eyeing New York at +1400 to win the AFC and +2800 to win it all. If healthy, this team can be as good as any in the AFC.
Aaron Rodgers is intriguing at +2800 for MVP. A former MVP in a huge market with an obvious comeback narrative playing for a possible top team? A much better case than the 12th-best odds he's being priced at.
Stock Up: Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs filled two big needs and stayed the course ahead of the rest of the division and the AFC.
Kansas City sorely lacked a speed threat to stretch the defense even on its Super Bowl run, and first-round WR Xavier Worthy ran the fastest 40 in Combine history. He probably won't be Tyreek Hill but he gives the Chiefs a speed weapon they've lacked since Hill's departure, and Kingsley Suamataia should be a long-term tackle solution to protect Patrick Mahomes' blindside as the Chiefs added multiple names on the line.
How about the rest of the AFC West?
The Raiders were the one team that didn't get their QB, leaving them with Gardner Minshew, and Brock Bowers was a questionable solution that could struggle to have an immediate impact. The Broncos did get their QB but overdrafted a guy I compared to Gardner Minshew in Bo Nix, and it's tough to see Denver playing competitive ball this year.
The Chargers had a nice long-term draft, adding Joe Alt opposite Rashawn Slater on the line, snagging Jim Harbaugh's go-to LB Junior Colson to anchor the defense, and drafting WR Ladd McConkey. He could be the WR1 after Keenan Allen and Mike Williams departed, and therein lies the problem. I see the Chargers' vision, but it's probably at least a year away given the dearth of talent.
The Chiefs should walk to the division — a good bet even at -225 (BetMGM) — and 6-0 in the division would go a long way toward setting Kansas City up for another run at the No. 1-seed, a bye week, and a couple of home games from yet another Super Bowl.
Stock Down: Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys were supposed to be "all-in" but have done precious little this offseason to match the tone.
Dallas is mostly running it back, without long-term deals for Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb or Micah Parsons, and without answering any of the issues that plagued the team in its biggest losses.
The biggest free-agent addition — nearly the only one — was veteran LB Eric Kendricks. The main draft addition was OT Tyler Guyton, who only has to replace elite departed T Tyron Smith. There were rotation additions in the trenches too. The one thing Dallas didn't draft was an RB, despite having effectively no starter. That problem is now "solved" with the re-addition of Ezekiel Elliott.
Dallas didn't make a head coaching change either, electing to bring back Mike McCarthy, and this whole thing is starting to have a real Last Dance-type aura, and not in a good way. Last year might have been this core's peak, and there will be plenty of finger-pointing and blaming the moment anything goes awry.
There are so many ways this can go wrong, and Dallas added no new answers.
The Cowboys just gave away their best shot in the division. The Commanders and Giants both raised their floors significantly this offseason, and as for the Eagles? Well, let's talk about Philadelphia.
Stock Up: Philadelphia Eagles
Howie Roseman was in his bag on draft weekend, and he has been all offseason.
Roseman made an NFL Draft record nine trades, moving up and down and in and out of the draft. He grabbed two immediate impact guys to overhaul his secondary but also managed to add additional third-, fourth- and fifth-round picks for 2025.
The Eagles' secondary tanked last season as Darius Slay and James Bradberry saw major decline, so Philadelphia addressed the need sharply by adding what many considered the two best man coverage guys in the draft. They got the draft's top corner in Quinyon Mitchell, then traded up to secure Cooper DeJean, a player many mock drafts projected to Philly with that first pick.
Evan Kaplan's ESPN Draft Predictor tool has Mitchell available just 6% of the time for Philadelphia's pick and DeJean only 3% of the time. That's about a 1-in-550 chance of getting both that late, and it's an immediate revision on a suddenly deep secondary. Philly also added C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Devin White and Bryce Huff in free agency, along with the splash signing Saquon Barkley on offense.
The Eagles spent the rest of the draft adding quantity to areas of need. They drafted a pair of linebackers and a pair of interior linemen, opting to give the team multiple bites at the apple rather than smugly thinking they were smarter than the rest of the field and locking in on one guy. That's a smart draft process.
On top of all that, Philadelphia already overhauled its identity by bringing in two new coordinators in Kellen Moore and Vic Vangio.
A stable organization with a good QB, great weapons, and a talented defense, buoyed by the right additions on the fringes and some new blood in the coaching ranks? Sounds a lot like this year's Ravens to me.
I see no reason to think Philadelphia is anything but the team to beat in the NFC, right there alongside San Francisco. The Eagles are still a bargain to win the Super Bowl at +1700 (DraftKings), the eighth-best odds on the board, and they're my favorite early division bet at +130 (ESPN Bet) in the NFC East.
Stock Down: Carolina Panthers
Is it possible for stock to go down when it's already Enron-ed its way into the cellar? Carolina appears to be testing that question.
If you had to use one word to describe the Panthers draft, the word would be "performative." Carolina's draft felt like a desperate pitch to a fan base it may have already lost.
It started with a ridiculous trade "up" into the first round for South Carolina WR Xavier Legette, a player most expected to go 10 or 20 picks later. The Panthers only needed to move up one spot to secure Legette, though — because they took him at No. 32 and owned pick No. 33! To make that swap up a whopping one spot to a franchise that clearly preferred another WR anyway, Carolina dropped from No. 141 to 200 later in the draft.
And for what? What is that trade?! No one was taking Legette. Carolina willingly sacrificed almost two rounds of value just so they could breathlessly announce to the fan base a "first-round receiver" in Legette.
Lest you forget, Carolina didn't have its own first-round pick. That went to Chicago, you know, the first pick in the draft that was traded away in the Bryce Young trade. The Bears now have Caleb Williams instead.
The Panthers had another second-round pick from the Brian Burns trade — that's the guy teams once offered multiple firsts for, you might recall — and traded that pick down, then back up in an admittedly nifty bit of maneuvering that netted an additional 2025 second-round pick. That's good. What's not good is that Carolina used the pick to take the draft's first RB, Jonathan Brooks there.
What?! The Panthers roster is absolutely barren. The defense is a disaster. The offensive line is a work in progress at best. They may or may not have a QB. The only positions on the team that were stable were Miles Sanders and Chubba Hubbard at RB and Adam Thielen and Diontae Johnson at WR.
So what did Carolina spend the first two days of its draft doing? Taking recognizable names at RB and WR, trading away valuable draft capital both times to move up for the honor, in a desperate attempt to sell this team to fans that are no longer buying it.
The moves reeked of owner David Tepper sticking his nose in yet again where it doesn't belong.
Brooks, Legette and Young sounds more like a law firm or a country western band than the future triplets who will one day lead this franchise out of the mire. Good luck with that, new head coach Dave Canales!
