It seems like it happens every season — yet another surprising NFL team goes from worst-to-first.
Some poor team has the year from hell, finishes at the bottom in its division and earns a top draft pick. Pundits spend all offseason writing them off, and everyone avoids their guys in fantasy football. The new season dawns with little hope. And then, four months later, they somehow win their division and host a playoff game.
Sound familiar? It certainly should.
In 19 of the past 21 NFL seasons (90%), at least one cellar dweller flipped the script and won its division the following season.
In 2016, the Cowboys drafted Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and jumped from 4-12 to 13-3, and the Eaglesleapt from 7-9 to champs the next year. The Bears and Texans did it in 2018, and Washington did it in 2019.
The 2021 Bengals went from the outhouse to the Super Bowl, and we correctly picked the Jaguars at +800 to go worst-to-first in 2022 right here in this column. Then, we backed it up with Texans Island just last fall, which turned into a miracle late run to snag another long-shot winner at +1100.
Since the NFL adopted its current division format in 2002, 29 last-place teams have won the division the following season, an average of 1.32 per year. It just keeps on happening, year after year.
Some books allow us to just bet on whether any of the eight possibilities will go worst-to-first. At DraftKings, under Team Specials – Mixed, we can make this exact bet at -330. Don't let that juice scare you away. That 77% implied is well short of the 90% hit rate the past couple decades, which would suggest a fair price closer to -950.
But we're greedy! We want big, long-shot winners.
Let's rank last season's bottom feeders from least to most bettable and find a new island best bet in 2024.
Tier IV: Wrong Place, Wrong Time
8. New England Patriots +2800
When searching for an island, it's a good idea to check out the full archipelago. Any worst-to-first pick is inherently a bet against three pre-selected opponents, which can be good or bad news.
For New England, that's very bad news.
The Bills, Dolphins, and Jets all fancy themselves legit Super Bowl contenders, with all three expected to make the playoffs by betting odds. I have six teams in my top tier of offense rankings. Three of those six reside in this division, while the Patriots sit on the other end of the ranks at No. 31.
Few teams in NFL history have faced a bigger brain drain than the Patriots after finally moving on from Bill Belichick. Belichick wasn't just the head coach — he did everything. Belichick always had his hands on the special teams and offensive line — which are both dreadful for New England now — and he was a master of defense.
Many analysts rate the Patriots' defense top-10, but we have no idea if Jerod Mayo can deploy weapons like Kyle Dugger and Jabrill Peppers the way Belichick's genius unlocked them.
This defense was always more than the sum of its parts, and it's now missing a lot up front with Christian Barmore hurt and Matt Judon traded.
Drake Maye could be great someday, but he's not ready to take down Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers and Tua Tagovailoa all by himself, let alone without any protection.
I like the Patriots at +400 to go winless in the division, and I don't mind the chalk pick for New England to be the last winless team at +500.
Until Mayo proves otherwise, this is the worst team in the league in the exact wrong division.
Verdict: Just try to keep Maye alive, will ya?
7. Washington Commanders +1100
Entering the offseason, the Commanders looked like an intriguing worst-to-first candidate.
Washington had a top draft pick, an opportunity to land a quarterback, a billionaire ready to hire the best coach on the market and a ton of cap room to reload the roster.
Well, the Commanders settled for backup coaching choice Dan Quinn and retread OC Kliff Kingsbury, decided to spend all their money on zero-ceiling floor raisers across the roster and drafted Heisman winner Jayden Daniels while giving him precious little to work with.
The new coach-QB combo represent unknown upside, but Washington may have the worst offensive line in the league, and there's precious little here to believe in — especially since the Eagles and Cowboys once again look like two of the top four or five NFC teams.
Washington's floor should be a bit higher, but Philadelphia and Dallas are in another galaxy.
Verdict: You couldn't pay me to bet on Quinn and Kingsbury.
Tier III: Talented Teams at Bad Prices
6. Cincinnati Bengals +165
Heading into this exercise, the Bengals seemed like the Free Space answer. Cincinnati won nine games last season even without a healthy Joe Burrow most of the way, so it's easy to imagine a few more wins.
But are the Bengals still living off that Super Bowl run reputation?
Cincinnati's DVOA offensive ranks the last three years are 11, four and 18, while the defense is at 23, 11 and 19. The offensive line is below average and sliding. Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone, leaving the offense thin. Zac Taylor has never done much to elevate the talent on this offense.
This just isn't a team that's added up to more than the sum of its parts outside of one magical month-long run, and it's playing in what might still be the league's toughest division.
All three AFC North opponents won double-digit games last season, and Cincinnati has by far the worst defense in the division, with the other three all staking a claim to be in the top 10 or better.
This is a bad number at +165; the Bengals are near co-favorites with a Ravens team that's miles better.
Cincinnati may be the worst team in the division, and I can't even get to 20% odds to win the division, let alone the implied 38% we're getting.
I'd rather bet the Bengals to miss the playoffs at +210.
Verdict: A terrible price for an overrated team in a loaded division.
5. Chicago Bears +340
This is the exact spot the Bears sat in last year in this column at a slightly longer price.
This year's Chicago team certainly offers more promise, but the division around it has gotten better too. Detroit is a bonafide Super Bowl contender, and Green Bay might be too if Jordan Love takes another step.
Bears fans have a lot to get excited about, and not just Tuesday night Hard Knocks.
Caleb Williams looks and sounds like the real deal. He flashed in preseason action with "those plays," the run-around, keep-the-play-alive, backyard-creation-this-sure-feels-like-that-Mahomes-guy sort of plays that will keep the locals buzzing all season with huge dreams of a brighter tomorrow.
But it's not just the rookie.
New OC Shane Waldron is the goods. He helped Geno Smith and Seattle post top-10 Passing DVOA metrics each of the past two seasons, and Williams has an outstanding cadre of receivers in DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and rookie Rome Odunze.
Chicago's defense also took a leap late season.
I still have questions about the offensive line — which is much better run blocking than pass blocking — and I wonder how quickly Williams will curb some of his bad college habits.
I also worry that much of the late defensive rise came on outlier turnovers and a season that will be hard to replicate from Jaylon Johnson.
Bears fans have every right to get excited. This team is downright fun and should have every reason to believe it can push toward .500. But getting to 12 wins or beyond and passing both Detroit and Green Bay is another ask altogether.
Verdict: The hype is real, but so is the division, and 23% implied feels a year too early.
4. Los Angeles Chargers +390
It's hard to get a handle on the Chargers.
On the one hand, it's easy to fall in love with the spine of the team.
Justin Herbert is as talented as any QB in the league, and the Chargers continue to invest in the offensive line and may as well have the best tackle duo in football in Rashawn Slater and rookie Joe Alt. New head coach Jim Harbaugh has won everywhere he's gone, and OC Greg Roman and DC Jesse Minter are promising.
The spine is easy to believe in, but the rest of the roster feels like a team in transition.
Gone are Austin Ekeler, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, leaving the Chargers with the worst weapons in the entire league. Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa ended up sticking around but don't always stay healthy, and a defense full of big names has underperformed season after season.
Of course, the biggest problem with betting the Chargers to go worst-to-first is that it's not just a bet on L.A. It's also a parlay fading the two-time defending champs. Even in the worst season of Patrick Mahomes' career, the Chiefs won 11 games, and now they improved at receiver and offensive line and return a great defense.
The Chargers have a winnable schedule across the first three weeks against the Raiders, Panthers and Steelers while the Chiefs start out against the Ravens and Bengals. That means it's probably now or never if you're betting this one.
I love the spine, but I just don't need this in my portfolio at a relatively short price.
Betting against Mahomes is not a profitable long-term venture.
Verdict: I have better things to do than bet against Mahomes.
Tier II: Keep an Eye Out, But Invest Later As Needed
3. Tennessee Titans +1000
The Titans are one of the more difficult teams to read this season since Mike Vrabel and Derrick Henry were the heart and soul of this team for so long.
Henry's absence might actually mean a more rounded offense, with Tony Pollard's speed brought in to complement Tyjae Spears, and Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd pairing with DeAndre Hopkins to give Will Levis an intriguing trio of receivers.
Tennessee's offensive line was worst in the league but added No. 7 draft pick JC Latham at left tackle and also added stud offensive line coach Bill Callahan.
The arrow is pointing up on the Titans offense, but it depends heavily on what new coach Brian Callahan can get out of Levis.
The defense is also a bit of an unknown with new DC Dennard Wilson, a former Ravens defensive backs coach. He inherits a talented secondary, and Tennessee traded for Ernest Jones IV — a young linebacker on the rise — from the Rams.
This team isn't good yet, but there are any number of paths to improvement, and it's in a division that still feels pretty winnable. Tennessee is worst in the division for now but still close until Houston shows it can pull away.
I don't hate a bet at +1000, but we can wait and get more information and decide about playing it later.
The Titans face the Jets, Packers, Dolphins, Bills and Lions all by Week 8. If they start 3-5 or 2-6, this ticket gets longer and might not be worth buying. If they steal a win and flash potential, we'll get a shorter price but with extra knowledge of where this team is headed — and a post Week 8 schedule that includes the Patriots, Chargers, Vikings, Commanders and five of the six division games.
I'm not in on the Titans, but I'm not ruling them out either.
Verdict: Keep an eye on the Titans and circle back later as needed.
2. Arizona Cardinals +1400
I can't tell you how badly I wanted to talk myself into Cardinals Island.
I spent the last six months checking real estate. I watched Kyler Murray film. I got excited about OC Drew Petzing's offense. I dreamt about Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson and Trey McBride catching passes.
But then I got to the defense.
The Cardinals' offense has legit upside. Murray can still be a top-10 QB when healthy and playing in a real (read: not Kingsbury) offense. Those young receivers are really good, with Petzing a former tight ends specialist coaching up McBride and MHJ ready for a rookie breakout.
Plus, the rushing attack was the best in the league over the back half of last season.
Arizona has a shot to get into the top half of the league offensively, but even that might still leave the Cardinals as the worst offense in the division.
That's half of the problem, and the defense is the other half. This defense ranks last in the NFL for me, by a significant margin. The Cards ranked last in DVOA last season under DC Nick Rallis and defensive-minded head coach Jonathan Gannon, and there's very little talent across this defensive roster outside of safety.
Remember, islands aren't purchased in a vacuum. This particular archipelago is loaded, with the 49ers being the NFC favorite, the Rams being a better version of the Cardinals as a great offense and slightly-less-terrible defense and the Seahawks being a very intriguing sleeper.
It's tough to see Arizona beating all of those teams out.
Even if you disagree, you can probably get a longer number later. The Cardinals start the season in Buffalo, then play the Rams and Lions.
This defense will probably give up 100 points in that stretch, so if you see enough from the offense to invest after that, you'll probably get an even better price then.
Verdict: See you next year, Cardinals Island?!
Tier I: Panthers Island!!
1. Carolina Panthers +1300
Now the NFC South is an archipelago worth investing in! The streets are unpaved. The buildings are worn down and abandoned. Real estate is at an all-time low.
The Saints rank near the bottom of the league in coaching and offensive line. The Bucs are blah and fading, even after three straight division titles. The Falcons are the division favorite by default with an average-at-best offense, a subpar defense, a 36-year-old QB coming off a torn Achilles and a new, unproven coaching staff.
And then there are the forgotten Panthers, coming off the third-most injured games lost in the NFL.
Carolina absolutely reeks of the post-Urban Meyer Year 2 Trevor Lawrence experience. Meyer was so bad with the Jaguars that his stink tanked Lawrence's entire rookie season before we bet the Jags at +800 to go worst-to-first the following year.
Frank Reich and a shambolic Panthers staff made an absolute mess of Bryce Young last year and made him look entirely unplayable, but we sure don't think that about Lawrence now.
Maybe Young needs another chance, and he's certainly getting one in Dave Canales.
Canales is the adult in the room in Carolina, and he's proven to be something of a quarterbacks guru. Canales worked closely with Baker Mayfield and helped him redeem his career last season in Tampa, and he worked with Geno Smith in Seattle the previous season.
Young's numbers were abysmal across the board as a rookie, but what will they look like in a real NFL system with an actual coach investing in him?
The Panthers' offensive line started its LT, C and RT in every game but started 10 different guards, so the team went out and signed a pair of expensive replacements in Damien Lewis and Robert Hunt.
Carolina also added terrific route runner Diontae Johnson and rookie Xavier Legette to Adam Thielen at WR, and it'll soon add rookie RB Jonathan Brooks — the best runner in his class — to what was an already solid run game.
The defense lost Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu but returns stud LB Shaq Thompson from injury and brings Jadeveon Clowney home. Also, DC Ejiro Evero is one of the league's more talented young player callers.
It's not the most talented defense, but it has potential — and a wildly soft schedule.
The first 10 Panthers games come against the Saints, Chargers, Raiders, Bengals, Bears, Falcons, Commanders, Broncos, Saints and Giants. There's no one on that list the Panthers can't beat. There's only one team projected in the top half of the league offensively, which means there's a chance for Carolina to hang around and find some confidence early.
Young doesn't have to be elite — how about competent? Just getting Young to something like the 20th- or 24th-best QB can get the Panthers to at least six or seven wins in a terrible division where nine may well be enough.
No. 1 draft picks tend to struggle in their rookie seasons before making a leap their sophomore year. Jameis Winston jumped from six to nine wins. Jared Goff went winless as a rookie, then won 11 the next year. Murray went from three to seven, Burrow from two to 10 and Lawrence from three to nine wins.
Those QBs leapt an average of 5.5 wins from their rookie to sophomore season. Young and the Panthers won only two games, but that would put Carolina around 7.5 wins and right in the thick of a bad division.
Carolina's over 5.5 is a best bet and my favorite win total on the board, and Canales is an intriguing Coach of the Year candidate at +1800.
But in a division where I'm actively looking for ways to fade all three other teams, a bet on Carolina is the most direct way of doing that — especially for a team with so many obvious paths to upside.
It doesn't have to make sense. I loved the Texans last year because of the floor-raising additions that I thought would stand out on defense and the offensive line thanks to DeMeco Ryans. It turned out that Houston got more of its leap from C.J. Stroud and his two breakout WRs, along with OC Bobby Slowik.
Carolina isn't good on paper yet, but there are so many ways it can get there. The offensive line is improving. Canales could be great. Young could play like a competent QB or even a young star, worthy of last year's No. 1 pick. Evero could coach up the defense.
We may not even need greatness. In the NFC South, just average football against a soft schedule will do.
I project the Panthers at just over eight wins, ahead of the Saints and Bucs and barely behind the Falcons. I have Carolina at 28% to win the division, about four times the implied 7% we're getting at +1300.
It probably sounds crazy, but it sounded crazy when we bet Jaguars +800 coming off Lawrence's disaster rookie season, and no one anywhere was backing the Texans to win the division at +1100 at this time a year ago.
The Panthers are the one worst-to-first division bet you simply must make heading into the 2024 season.
Panthers Island!! #KeepPounding
Verdict: Bet Panthers +1300! They're the best worst-to-first bet heading into 2024.
