The dust had started to settle a bit on NFL head coaching changes after the news that Bill Belichick was out as coach of the New England Patriots, until the Patriots moved quickly and hired Jerod Mayo as Belichick's replacement on Friday morning. That leaves us with seven NFL head coaching vacancies currently — and yes, Mayo was our pick as the best fit in New England.
We've already ranked all the NFL head coach job openings from worst to best. Now, it's time to figure out which coach would be the best fit in each of those vacancies. For this exercise, we'll be going in order of the best coaching job available to the worst so we can consider all the options for the most appealing spots.
Make sure to check out our ranking of all of the NFL head coaching vacancies as well, and let's get to the best fit for all seven job openings.
(For the latest odds on Bill Belichick's potential next coaching job — or if he will coach again at all — check out Bill Belichick Next Team Odds: Favored to Join Falcons, Chargers.)
NFL Head Coaching Vacancies: Best Fit for every NFL Head Coach Job
Washington Commanders Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Mike Macdonald
This is the best job on the market, so this job should go to the best available candidate. For me, that's either Baltimore DC Mike Macdonald or Detroit OC Ben Johnson.
Macdonald has done wonders with the Ravens defense, which leads the league in DVOA and is the biggest reason Baltimore is the AFC 1-seed and the favorite to make the Super Bowl. His defense totally flummoxed the mostly unstoppable 49ers and Dolphins offenses down the stretch, and he's had success in multiple stops, considering what he did at Michigan.
Macdonald is already in the DMV, and he brings good vibes with him and possibly a Super Bowl ring. Washington's defense was the worst in the league to end the season. Macdonald will bring some immediate answers, and he can bring in a hot young offensive coordinator to coach up the new quarterback and lead the attack.
Washington is the best job on the market, and Macdonald might very well be the top candidate.
Los Angeles Chargers Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Jim Harbaugh
Maybe you want a genius offensive mind to come in and truly unlock everything Herbert can do. Ben Johnson tops the list, but there's no shortage of candidates — names like Bobby Slowik, Shane Waldron, Dave Canales and Drew Petzing come to mind.
Or perhaps you prefer a culture setter, someone to come in and give this franchise some much-needed direction and a sense of identity. Now you're looking at Mike Vrabel, maybe Raheem Morris or Brian Flores.
Jim Harbaugh is the best of both worlds.
Harbaugh went 44-19-1 with the 49ers and made three NFC Championship Games. He went 86-25 at Michigan, made three consecutive playoffs, and won a national championship.
Few in the world can match his pedigree and results. Harbaugh has a great track record of hiring and developing excellent coordinators on both sides of the ball — like Mike Macdonald — and has maximized his talent at San Francisco, Michigan, Stanford and everywhere else he's been.
It may not last long, and it may end poorly, but Harbaugh is the culture setter this team needs and the right man to turn this franchise around in a hurry.
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Atlanta Falcons Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Ben Johnson
Johnson is the wunderkind who's revived Jared Goff's career and turned Detroit's offense into an absolute machine.
Johnson helped Amon-Ra St. Brown become one of the league's top receivers, and he turned veteran David Montgomery into a reliable running back and goal-line threat. He coaxed breakout rookie seasons from Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.
And, again: he turned Goff back into a real, actual NFL quarterback.
If you can turn a bunch of middling draft picks and veterans into one of the league's best attacks, what can you do with Robinson, London and Pitts? Falcons fans sure would like to find out, and it has to be reassuring to see how much Johnson has done with a replacement-level starter type quarterback in Goff.
Atlanta will hope to have a more permanent solution at quarterback soon enough, but until then, Johnson leading the offense — and hopefully Nielsen sticking around to keep leading the defense — could put the Falcons on the map in a hurry.
Seattle Seahawks Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Bill Belichick
Let's get crazy.
Belichick is officially available.
There really aren't many great mutual fits for Belichick on this list as he's old and wants to win right now, but Seattle is a pretty good marriage.
That whole "what if Carroll was responsible for the secondary and overachieving defense" issue goes away in a hurry when Belichick is the solution, and you have to figure he could find some defensive answers in a hurry with this roster.
Belichick is still an elite defensive coach. What he's lacking is creativity and innovation on offense and managing in game, and that's why Seattle should retain Shane Waldron to run the offense. Waldron has done a terrific job and helped Smith break out, and he'll keep that unit humming while Belichick does what he does best — improve the offensive line and turn the defense into gold.
Dan Quinn is the obvious name here with his ties to Carroll and success with the Cowboys' defense, but I'm shooting for the stars. Go get a legend. If not, Quinn or Raheem Morris make sense, as long as you can keep Waldron around. If not? Just promote Waldron instead.
Tennessee Titans Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Drew Petzing
This is the toughest call on the board. Who's the fit here?
Bill Belichick doesn't make any sense for such a long-term project. Raheem Morris and Brian Flores would provide some stability and set the culture, but they seem too similar to the guy Tennessee just moved on from, Mike Vrabel. That was an odd move — and maybe not a good one — but signaled the Titans' desire to start with something new and fresh.
Drew Petzing would certainly be new and fresh.
Petzing would be an admittedly shocking hire at age 36 with just one year under his belt as a coordinator and play caller, but I was so impressed with what he did in Arizona this season. The Cardinals had no quarterback for half the year and had the least talented roster in the league, but Petzing coaxed a great rushing attack out of the team and helped Arizona upset the Cowboys and Eagles.
In the modern NFL, the ideal head coach is a great offensive schemer and play caller. Hire a great defensive mind and you'll always be chasing that offensive mind to balance things out. Hire the offensive guy as a head coach and you keep them.
Shane Waldron, Bobby Slowik and Dave Canales also come to mind, among other options. This is a long-term play.
New England Patriots Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Jerod Mayo
(Editor's note: The Patriots hired Mayo to replace Belichick on Friday. Here is Brandon's analysis from before the hire on why Mayo was the best fit.)
How do you recommend a coach to a franchise that might have already made up its mind?
New England's franchise has been nepotistic for years, and Robert Kraft likes what he likes (insert joke here).
The Patriots know their family tree, and they usually like to keep it in the family. That probably means either bringing in the suddenly available Mike Vrabel or just going with the in-house guy that's looked like Belichick's coach-in-waiting.
It's hard to believe Belichick wouldn't have a real say in choosing his successor, so let's go with the obvious choice here.
Jerod Mayo won Rookie of the Year and played his entire career with the Patriots. He's officially the inside linebackers coach but also has an unnamed role with the team, because Patriots, and he would represent a bridge of continuity for the team. That might even mean keeping around names like OC Bill O'Brien and/or DC Steve Belichick, and it would probably mean good short-term things for this defense.
Is that the right choice?
Ehhh.
Personally, I'd go an entirely new direction. The Belichick era was great, but it's over. I'd clean house. Goodbye all Belichicks, sayonara Bill O'Brien, pack your bags all those goofy Belichick draft picks and weapons. Remove the logo, the history, and the mostly bad roster and there's something intriguing there.
Jayden Daniels, a clean start on offense, intriguing defensive weapons, and plenty of cap room. Sounds like the perfect place to bring in a bright young offensive mind and take the team into the new century to me.
Good luck convincing New England ownership of that.
Carolina Panthers Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Bobby Slowik
Look no further than Bobby Slowik to see just what a difference the right coach and system can make for a rookie quarterback.
Slowik built the offense that helped turn C.J. Stroud into an NFL star overnight, and he also helped turn Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Noah Brown from completely overlooked no-name wide receivers into one of the league's most exciting young trios.
The rushing attack was bad in his debut season with Houston, but Slowik's offense had a consistent barrage of injuries up and down the offensive line.
That's Slowik's specialty, much like Mike McDaniel's, and it took McDaniel a year to find some answers in Miami too — but look at the answers he found.
This is not a desirable job because of the situation at hand.
Carolina needs to take a chance on someone — someone that needs to take a chance on Carolina themselves — and it needs to be an offensive mind who can fix Young.
Ben Johnson is top of the list, then work your way down the options from there.
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Las Vegas Raiders Head Coach Best Fit, Recommendation: Mike Vrabel
Two things can be true at once: Mike Vrabel was an outstanding coach for the Titans who probably shouldn't have been let go, but he also wouldn't be at or near the top of my list for hiring a new coach.
Vrabel consistently outperformed as an underdog but was also consistently an underdog. He oversaw offenses that maximized Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill but also failed in big moments and had a clear glass ceiling.
Vrabel made savvy in-game strategic decisions that gave his team a better chance to win but also leaned far too run-heavy and old school in overall mentality in a way that held the team back.
That tough-minded, old-school mentality is exactly why I think Vrabel would appeal to the Raiders.
Vrabel is a culture setter, and few franchises are more in need of a clear culture and identity than the Raiders. He's exactly what ownership thinks this team is, for better and for worse.
One of Vrabel's biggest flaws is his hiring and retention of coordinators. Arthur Smith was an exception. Tennessee's offense hasn't been the same since Smith left.
Smith was a terrible head coach and clearly wants nothing to do with the face-of-a-franchise responsibilities, but he's been at the helm of multiple terrific offenses that did a lot with a little.
Maybe the Raiders just bring back Antonio Pierce, though hiring an interim to go full-time rarely ends well. Otherwise, bringing in Vrabel with Smith as his top deputy seems very on-brand for the franchise.
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