Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures — especially when it's a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
For the 2023 NFL season, I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback Interception Market to identify key spots each week to cash in on QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props for each quarterback, and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 17-12 for +8.9U thus far.
This is also off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) after throwing a pick in five of the six games he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterback interception props I’m betting for NFL Week 3.
I'm shocked this one is plus-money, especially after Watson threw an interception on his first dropback on Monday Night Football.
Watson has looked awful since returning to the NFL and we need to capitalize on this before sportsbooks start skewing the odds against us.
The former Texans star has played eight games since joining the Browns; he has thrown a pick in six of them. My colleague Nick Giffen cashed on him throwing an interception against the Steelers — part of his analysis was Watson's obscene bad-ball rate (17.5%). Watson is also eighth in the NFL in interception rate per pass (2.9%). That’s tied with Derek Carr, who has INT odds hovering around -150 in Week 3.
The main reason why we're getting plus-odds on Watson is the opponent.
I’m not going to sugarcoat it: the Titans pass defense has been awful. They rank bottom five in both passing yards allowed and yards per catch. I’m not sure that will really matter because Watson may have to throw even more with Nick Chubb out for the season.
As bad as the Titans are stopping the pass, they’re quite good stopping the run. They rank second in yards per carry, first in overall rushing yards allowed and ninth in sacks.
Watson is going to need to throw to win this game and that means we got 'em right where we want 'em!
When betting on interception props, one of the first things to look for defensive line pressure rate.
One team that has been causing havoc on that front is the Buccaneers, who host Jalen Hurts and the Eagles on Monday Night Football. Although he’s mostly been clean on this front since the start of 2022 (7 INT in 17 regular season games), I’m taking Hurts to throw an interception.
While he didn’t throw an interception in Week 1, Hurts had a few throws against the Patriots that should’ve been picked. He got pressured in the pocket by the Vikings in Week 2 and tossed one to Minnesota’s safety, which cashed his INT prop at +160.
Now, the Eagles have a tougher matchup with the Buccaneers, who have been solid against the run and also getting to the quarterback (eight sacks). They also are getting healthierm, with only CB Carlton Davis on the injury report (questionable; toe) for the starters on defense.
Eagles WR AJ Brown has yet to score, which leads me to believe the Eagles will have a few designed throws to make him happy. This means more opportunity to stunt on Hurts.
Also, while he is practicing in full, Hurts appeared to be a bit banged up toward the end of Week 2 after running the ball 12 times.
If he’s compromised and can't fully plant his feet to throw, this only helps our chances. These INT odds should be closer to +125 (44% implied probability) as opposed to +170 (37%), so I’ll take a swing on the Bucs cashing this in primetime.
