Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the game's momentum.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
We’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception in 2024, which mean we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
NFL Week 15 Interception Props
Mac Jones (-130) vs Jets
In all fairness to Jaguars quarterback Mac Jones, he shouldn’t even be in this position. This was supposed to be Trevor Lawrence’s year to shine. Now, Jones is leading a beaten-down Jaguars offense with a lame-duck coach and is hosting the New York Jets in Week 15. Sounds like an interception bet to me!
The first stat you need to know is Jones has thrown five interceptions in four games with all five of those in the three games he started. He didn’t throw one vs. Houston because the Texans' defense was prepping all week for Lawrence until they nearly decapitated him.
Going back to last season, when he was the starter for the Patriots, Jones had an INT in nine of 11 games. Couple those together, that’s 12 of his past 14 starts in the NFL. In all of those games, he had 30 turnover-worthy plays — top-five for all quarterbacks in that stretch.
The main reason we’re getting these odds compared to -150 is the Jets have forced the fewest interceptions in the NFL, but New York is expected to get All-Pro corner Sauce Gardner back this week, along with other help in the secondary.
Jones will also be missing another safety valve in tight end Evan Engram, which could make it even more difficult to complete a pass.
Jalen Hurts (+125) vs Steelers
I bet last week for Jalen Hurts to throw an interception against the Panthers under the idea that the game would be close and Hurts would need to throw more. Well, that part of my analysis came true with the Panthers losing by one score, but Hurts again leaned on the run game with only 21 passing attempts.
However, this week, the Eagles host the Steelers, which is certainly a step up in competition. So, I like Hurts to throw an interception in Week 15.
Part of the Steelers' aura is that they make key defensive plays that can swing games. Since Russell Wilson has taken over at quarterback, the voodoo has continued with the opposing quarterback throwing an interception in all but one of his seven starts. The Steelers rank third in total interceptions forced (15) and third in interception-rate-per-dropback (3.4%), while ranking seventh in total passes defended (61).
After all the drama in the locker room from receiver AJ Brown about the Eagles not throwing enough, Hurts may make a more conscious effort to throw instead of calling his number and scrambling on passing downs, which should increase the probability of a turnover-worthy throw.
