Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues. It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher).
In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
In 2024, we’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Here are the NFL interception props I like for Week 17:
Mac Jones INT (-130)
I’ll say this off the jump: I know this is pretty chalky, but this should probably be closer to -150 with how Jaguars QB Mac Jones has turned the ball over this season.
Jones has seven interceptions in six starts (four of six games with a pick) and dating back to last season, he’s thrown an interception in 13 of 16 games he’s started. Two of his interceptions this season were against the Titans, who we backed to get an interception on Anthony Richardson last week.
The Titans defense has been low-key feisty in the secondary with seven interceptions over their last five games.
Another reason why I like a Jones interception is he tends to throw picks even when the pocket is calm and he’s not blitzed. The Titans blitz at the ninth-fewest rate per dropback and are top-seven in defensive DVOA vs. the deep ball; they could pick Jones off from the deep bombs he throws to someone like WR Brian Thomas Jr.
Baker Mayfield INT (+125)
We hit this in primetime vs. the Cowboys and we’re going right back to Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield to throw another interception.
Mayfield has 15 interceptions this season, with six in the last four games. The hype of WR Mike Evans trying to get to 1,000 receiving yards is a bit overblown, but it can’t be overlooked over these last couple of games because if Mayfield is emphasizing the pass more to get the milestone, the Bucs offense is a bit more predictable as a result.
The Panthers have a significantly worse defense than the Cowboys, but they were able to get two interceptions from Mayfield when they played in Week 13.
A big reason why we’re getting plus odds again is nearly all of the Panthers' secondary is out (Josey Jewell, Jaycee Horn and Chau Smith-Wade).
For reference, Mayfield was -105 to throw an interception when they played a few weeks ago. I’m willing to overlook the Panthers' defensive injuries at these odds given Mayfield’s YOLO attitude.
