Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the game's momentum.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
We’re seeing far fewer quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception in 2024, which mean we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
NFL Week 16 Interception Props
Anthony Richardson (+100) vs Titans
Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson has four interceptions over his last two games and 11 on the season. Part of the reason why he’s labeled as a run-first quarterback is his accuracy continues to be an issue in his second year.
He’s only completing 47% of his passes on the year and his turnover-worthy-play rate has increased as the season has gone on. Now, he’s facing a Titans team that has been feisty over the last month, with six interceptions forced on opposing quarterbacks over the last four games.
Another reason why I like a T-Rich interception this season is he seems to get picked off more when the pocket is calm around him and doesn’t have pressure. He has a TWP rate of 4.9% when having a clean pocket (ranked bottom-five for starting QBs) and the Titans' game plan is to limit the run with their stout defensive line.
If Richardson becomes more of a pocket passer, this bet gets really juicy because the Titans are top-five in defensive DVOA vs the deep ball and could pick him off from the deep bombs he throws.
Baker Mayfield (+125) vs Cowboys
As much as we love Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield for TD bets, we almost like him the same for interception bets this season. Mayfield has 14 interceptions this season, with five in just the last three games.
There are a few reasons why I want to bet on Baker to throw an INT and part of it is the Mike Evans narrative. So much has been made about him needing 250 receiving yards over the final three games to get to 1000 yards. I think that will play in our favor if Baker is emphasizing the passing game to Evans, which would make the offense a bit more predictable.
The Cowboys' defense got shredded a lot over the first half of the season, but they’re slowly making a comeback on the turnover front as they rank first in pressure rate per dropback and top-five in blitz rate. The presence of MLB Micah Parsons and CB Daron Bland can’t be overstated.
In four games with both of them back in the lineup, the Cowboys have forced opposing QBs to throw an INT in each game with six interceptions total. Then, when you look at Mayfield and how he does under pressure, his accuracy drops and turnover-worthy plays increase immensely.
