Betting on NFL quarterback ineptitude is one of my guilty pleasures. Particularly when they throw a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
That’s why for the 2023 NFL season, I’m going to dive headfirst into the Quarterback Interception Market to identify key spots each week to cash in on the QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I tracked all interception props from each quarterback for 2022 and it was a huge windfall for bettors who chose to only bet on them when they were plus-money (+100 or higher). Last season, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve finished 81-75 for +24.5U. We can also thank someone like Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings, as he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) and threw an interception in five-of-six games when he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on throw an interception in Week 1.
When considering interception props, one of the first basic stats you need to consider is passing attempts. It's harder to throw an interception if you’re not throwing. That’s why I love Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow to throw an interception in Week 1 vs the Cleveland Browns. He ranked top-four in pass attempts per game in 2022.
The next stat that you likely want to consider is defensive pressure rate, and the Browns can definitely turn it up on that front. Led by All-Pro defensive end Myles Garrett and newly acquired pass-rusher Zadarius Smith, they should be able to disrupt Burrow enough for him to have to make quick decisions. The Bengals have had offensive line issues, with Burrow being the most-sacked quarterback over the last two seasons combined (sacked 91 times in 32 games). That could be trouble for Burrow, who missed the majority of training camp and is still recovering from a strained calf.
Burrow also missed portions of training camp in 2022 and proceeded to throw four interceptions vs the Steelers in Week 1. In fact, nine of his 12 interceptions last year came against AFC North teams, and seven of them came on the road. If Cleveland gets a lead with its ferocious running attack and has the Bengals trailing late, that lends itself well to Burrow pressing and likely making a mistake.
It pains me to fade Joe Cool in a prime Week 1 matchup after getting the bag, but it has to be done. There are too many warning signs of turnovers.
He may end up being the quarterback of the future for the Indianapolis Colts, but for now it’s likely an uphill battle for Anthony Richardson as a passer in the NFL. Accuracy issues were the biggest cause for concern for The Tony Rich Project coming out of Florida, as he only managed to complete 53% of his passes while throwing nine interceptions in 12 games.
This pick is also a fade on rookie quarterbacks, who tend to have a “Welcome To The NFL” moment in their first start. Last year, there were seven rookie quarterbacks who started a game (Brock Purdy, Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Malik Willis, Skylar Thompson) and they all threw a pick in their first game, except for Ridder.
There is a fair caution in the idea that Richardson won't throw the ball enough. Rookie quarterbacks tend to be a bit more cautious and new head coach Shane Steichen likely won’t lean on him too much in the passing game. However, given his track record in college, how rookies fare in first games and the Colts having arguably the worst collection of skill players in the NFL, I have his odds projected at -150, similar to other rookies like Bryce Young (-140) and CJ Stroud (-165).
