Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track interception props for each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback who was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 58-51 for +19.8U thus far.
This comes off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) and he threw an interception in five of six games when listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting on throw an interception in Week 10.
Texans vs. Bengals
C.J. Stroud
To Throw Interception (+135)
Yes, I've lost this bet in each of the last two weeks … but this is my new INT “white whale.”
Stroud made a fool out of me at home against the Buccaneers, but I think after throwing five touchdowns and breaking records, there’s nowhere to go but down.
Stroud, who's only thrown one interception in eight games, has looked fantastic in stretches but somewhat inept in others. He leads the NFL in Bad Throw Rate (21.2%) and ranks 25th in passes on target (72.7%). My man Nick Giffen from Action's Predictive Analytics team has Stroud as the “luckiest” QB in the NFL for INT props in 2023 based on his bad-ball rate.
The Bengals defense checks a lot of boxes for why I love this bet. They’re second in interceptions (11) and first in INT rate per pass; they've forced a pick in all but one game. In fact, since coming off the bye, Cincy has forced 7 INTs in its last four games.
The Texans are missing a lot of key guys on offense — like WR Nico Collins and FB Andrew Beck — and will be starting a new kicker.
It’s likely too much for Stroud to overcome.
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49ers vs. Jaguars
Brock Purdy
To Throw Interception (+105)
This one feels like playing with fire given how clean Brock Purdy was in the pocket before the injuries to LT Trent Willams and WR Deebo Samuel.
That being said, much like the Stroud bet, this one checks a lot of boxes.
The Jaguars defense, much like the Bengals', does a few things quite well. They are second in the league in interceptions (11) and passes defended. The latter stat is crucial because it means there was a defender in the area to potentially intercept the ball compared to “Bad Throw Rate,” which is mainly an inaccurate pass regardless of location of the defender. The Jags have also forced an INT in all but one game this season.
What nobody wants to admit is that it's possible defenses have figured out how to stop Purdy. He’s thrown five interceptions over his last three games (all losses) and he is on the road against a team that ranks in the top five in DVOA against the pass and run.
If this game is close, or the Jaguars get an early lead, I love my chances of a Purdy pick.
Check out the new user DraftKings promo code offer before placing your NFL Week 10 bets.
