Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game. That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all NFL interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “Yes” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus-odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into this week. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus-odds. Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 10.
Jared Goff
To Throw Interception (+130)
When a quarterback like Jared Goff is on a great run where he goes five games without throwing an interception, that’s when I start circling. Yes, Goff and the Lions have been on a tear offensively, but against the Houston Texans, I expect to see turnovers with one coming from the quarterback.
A big part of the reason why I want to fade Goff here is pressure rates, and how he does when facing defenses that can collapse the pocket. The Texans fit this description, as they generate the pressure at a top-five rate while also blitzing at the seventh-highest rate.
Historically, Goff has had a tougher time when seeing pressure. In 2024, two of his four interceptions came when he was blitzed, while three of them came with opponent pressure. In 2023, it was much more evident, when nine of his 12 interceptions came when he was pressured.
I expected Goff’s INT prop this week to be at +110, given that it’s a road game, the Texans secondary ranks second in total passes defended, and seventh in interception rate per dropback, I’ll be shocked if Goff doesn’t throw a pick in Week 10.
Jayden Daniels
To Throw Interception (+100)
Part of why we’re going to fade Commanders QB Jayden Daniels in this game is we’re buying low. I’m not sure public sentiment can get any higher for the rookie QB and now, he’s got the Steelers coming to town and their bag of tricks or voodoo is certainly in play.
The Steelers defense continues to be the backbone of the team with 10 interceptions forced and a 3.7 interception rate per drop back. Both of those rank in the top three in the NFL. The pressure they continue to create with the defensive line is why they can sit back in zone defense and wait for quarterbacks to make mistakes.
This is why an opposing QB has thrown an interception in seven of their nine games. What’s most impressive is the Steelers being able to generate so much pressure while ranking in the bottom-five in blitz rate (19.4%).
When Daniels threw his two picks earlier this season against the Cleveland Browns and Arizona Cardinals, both came when he wasn’t blitzed. There’s also potential for some wind gusts in Washington this weekend, so if the Commanders run game isn’t working and Daniels is forced to throw, I like this bet even more.
