Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
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It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 62-55 for +20.1U thus far.
This comes off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5U. We can thank Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6U for INT props (league leader) and he threw an interception in five of six games when listed at plus-money.
For Week 12, I'm on C.J. Stroud and Justin Fields to throw interceptions — check out my analysis below.
Bears vs. Vikings
Justin Fields
To Throw Interception (+115)
This one almost made me fall out of my chair.
Justin Fields has plus-odds to throw an interception? He’s only had plus-odds once since the start of last season, and it was Week 2 vs. the Buccaneers. In that game, he was clean until he wasn’t, throwing an interception near his own goal-line to Shaq Barrett.
Recency bias can play a big part in handicapping. Fields coming back from injury and not throwing an interception against the Lions may have clouded some judgment. He’s thrown 27 interceptions in the 34 games he’s appeared in. In 32 games he’s started, he has an INT in 20 of them (62%) and 10-of-17 road games in that stretch (58%).
I get the Vikings aren’t exactly a defensive juggernaut, but they do have a 12.5% pass-defended rate along with a 2.3% INT rate per dropback, which are both just above league average.
In the Vikings' last six games, the opposing QB has thrown an interception in five of them with Russell Wilson the only one falling short. Although it won’t show up in the stat sheet, there were two instances of a Wilson pass going into the breadbasket of a Vikings defender only for it to be dropped.
Jaguars vs. Texans
C.J. Stroud
To Throw Interception (+115)
Yes, I’m once again on Stroud throwing an interception. I've had mixed results betting on him (2-2), but because he was plus-odds in each of those games, I’m still up despite winning 50% of the time.
Stroud, who has 5 INTs in his last five games, punctuated his recent struggles with a three-interception game last week against the Cardinals. Not the team I would’ve picked for him to struggle against, but the NFL adapts and there might be some weaknesses that defenses are picking up on.
The overwhelming favorite for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud has looked fantastic in stretches but not so great in others. He’s third in Bad-Throw Rate (19.9%), according to Pro Football Reference, and 23rd in passes on target (73.2%).
The Jaguars defense checks a lot of boxes for me — notably they blitz a lot and can get after the quarterback. They rank in the top 10 in blitz rate and pressure rate. They’re seventh in interceptions (11) and 10th in INT rate per pass.
