Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 17-18 for +0.35U after Week 7.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception with only seven heading into Week 4. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 12.
Caleb Williams
To Throw Interception (+105)
The Vikings' defense has been a nightmare for opposing quarterbacks this season. They check a lot of boxes to generate turnovers and lead the NFL in interceptions forced. So when I see a quarterback like Caleb Williams at plus-odds, it’s an auto-bet in this spot.
I know Williams hasn’t thrown an interception in four games, but the Vikings could change that because they rank first in interception-per-dropback rate (4.3%), fifth in total passes defended (57), and are tied third in total sacks. That’s a tough draw for any quarterback, let alone a rookie feeling the heat of a losing season. Minnesota’s pressure comes from the blitz as it leads the NFL in blitz rate (37.7%), which is a big factor for why they also rank first in pressure rate per dropback (29.6).
You could make a case for both quarterbacks to throw a pick. Darnold made it out clean last week, but he’s been featured many times in this article throughout the season. Instead, let’s bank on the Vikings' defense that has made the opposing quarterback throw an interception in nine of 10 games this season.
Brandon Allen
To Throw Interception (-120)
I'm not sure I even remembered QB Brandon Allen was on the 49ers roster coming into this week, as I had assumed Josh Dobbs was the backup. Wrong. 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan had announced Allen as the starter on Friday and when sportsbooks gave out a -120 interception line for him, I couldn’t wait to bet it.
Allen doesn’t have much starting experience in the NFL, with only eight games started from 2019 to 2021. And, even though he’s on a much more talented roster, the returns were not good in his first stint. He’s thrown an interception in five of those games and now, in his first start since Week 17 of the 2021 season, he has to go to Green Bay in a likely hostile and cold environment. To make matters worse, he may also be missing his best offensive lineman since LT Trent Williams didn’t practice all week.
As for the Packers, their defense has come back to Earth after their interception frenzy to start the season, but they’ve still got 10 interceptions this season, which is tied for eighth in the NFL. They also rank eighth in interception rate per dropback (3.2%). Allen may start the game off careful and rely on RB Christian McCaffrey, but eventually, he’s going to have to throw and I fully expect him to make a few mistakes in only his ninth start in the NFL.
