Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 17-18 for +0.35U after Week 7.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus odds to throw an interception with only seven heading into Week 4. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus odds.
Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 13.
Geno Smith to Throw an Interception (+100)
I was shocked to see Geno Smith was listed at plus-odds to throw an interception this week. He hasn’t had plus-odds to throw an interception since Week 1 against the Broncos and he threw a pick. He has 12 interceptions this season, which leads the NFL, with six in the last four games and he's been picked off in eight of 11 games overall.
The big reason why we’re getting plus-odds is because the Jets haven’t lived up to the hype defensively. There's lots of big names on the Jets roster, especially in the secondary, but it hasn't equated to interceptions. They’ve only gotten two this season but have gotten 29 interceptions combined over the last two seasons.
It’s only a matter of time before they explode because the Jets defense still gets a ton of pressure. They rank top-five in pressure rate per drop back and top-seven in total sacks. And 10 of Geno Smith’s 12 interceptions this season have come when facing pressure.
With the Jets getting Pro Bowl MLB CJ Mosley back for this one, his presence should help boost the Jets’ ability in coverage to snag an interception from the Seahawks.
Kyler Murray to Throw an Interception (+100)
Playing with fire here because Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has been solid this season on the turnover front with only four interceptions this season. But, he’s facing the turnover machine known as the Vikings defense, so let’s bank on Minnesota to get an interception in Week 13.
Opposing quarterbacks have had a rough go when facing this Vikings defense. They rank second in interception-per-dropback rate (3.8%), sixth in total passes defended (60), and are tied for fourth in total sacks (38). Minnesota’s pressure comes from the blitz, as it leads the NFL in blitz rate (37.3%), which is a big factor for why they also rank first in pressure rate per dropback (29%).
Where Murray has had most of his interception troubles this season is when he’s pressured, as six of his eight turnover-worthy plays this season have come when the pocket is collapsing on him.
I know we fell short on QB Caleb Williams last week, but it’s still worth mentioning that the Vikings have forced the opposing quarterback to throw an interception in nine of 11 games this season. Let’s bet on them to get back on track this week!
