Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022.
Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 14.
Patrick Mahomes to Throw an Interception (-110)
We’ve hit on Patrick Mahomes interception props a few times this season, and this could be a matchup where he turns it over again with the Chargers coming to Arrowhead. Mahomes has 11 interceptions on the season, and when he faced the Chargers earlier this year, he threw a pick in the first quarter.
The Chargers defense has been excellent defending the pass this season. They rank fifth in defensive DVOA vs the pass, second in total passes defended (70), while also ranking sixth in interception-rate per dropback (3.2%).
The Chargers also rank sixth in total sacks, and just came off a game where they disrupted the Falcons offense with four interceptions.
In a tight divisional matchup, I expect the Chargers defense to go full throttle knowing if they don't make Mahomes turn the ball over, their chances to win decline exponentially.
Jalen Hurts to Throw an Interception (+165)
Of course, you’ll probably laugh at this bet if you’re an Eagles fan, or if just look at Jalen Hurts' recent box scores.
Hurts only has one interception over his last nine games, and leads an offense that averages the most rushing attempts per game along with the most rushing yards per game.
I get why you’d be nervous to tail this bet, but at +165, this is an odds-play, as I projected this number around +120.
Say what you will about the Panthers' defense, but they’ve been a bit feisty over the last few games. They’re coming off a game where they forced two interceptions against Baker Mayfield, and they’re middle of the pack in total passes defended (42) and total interceptions (7), which is encouraging.
The Panthers also blitz at the 10th-highest rate in the league, and that’s where they can likely force a turnover. Hurts has seen his passing metrics drop significantly when facing the blitz, with only three of his 15 passing touchdowns coming in that spot.
Over the last four games, the Panthers have been pretty competitive, with each one being decided by three points or less.
If they find themselves in another close game this week, I still expect the Eagles to pull out a win, but at these odds, I’ll take my chances on Hurts to cough it up and make a bad throw.
