Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game.
That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you'd be 62-55 for +20.1 units thus far.
This comes off last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5 units. We can thank Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings — he finished 2022 at +8.6 units for INT props (league leader) and he threw an interception in five of six games when listed at plus-money.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | |
| Monday, 8:15 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Commanders vs. Rams
Matthew Stafford
To Throw INT (-110)
This is a risky play given how poorly the Commanders secondary has been playing this season, but I can’t let this slide.
Look, here’s the deal: if you give Stafford time to throw, he can carve you up. He only was sacked twice in the last two weeks vs arguably the toughest two defenses in the NFL against the Ravens and Browns. He threw for six touchdowns and almost 600 passing yards.
The Commanders defense is difficult to trust, but it does still have some talent on the defensive line to get pressure. Washington also has 64 total passes defended this year (ninth in NFL), which is mainly because offenses are targeting the Commanders’ secondary given their season-long struggles.
Look, if you want to pass on this, I get it. Washington’s defense doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence. This is mainly an odds play because Stafford’s average INT odds this year have ranked from -125 to -175 depending on the matchup. At this number, I can't pass on a QB who has thrown 35 INT in 39 games with the Rams.
Pick: Matthew Stafford To Throw INT (-110)
Eagles vs. Seahawks
Jalen Hurts
To Throw INT (+135)
Although he didn’t throw an interception in the last two games, it was a tough couple of weeks for Eagles QB Jalen Hurts. Back-to-back losses to the Niners and Cowboys and now, Philly has to go to Lumen Field in Seattle, one of the loudest environments in the NFL. The Seahawks defense isn’t as strong as the “Legion Of Boom” days, but this is a bad matchup for Hurts so let’s bet his interception prop.
Hurts' turnover issues have been ongoing this season. He’s had fumble issues the last two weeks to go with 10 interceptions this season. Seven of those INTs have been on the road, with picks in four of seven road games this year. This is not the Hurts we’re used to seeing who only had six INTs in 15 games last year.
The Seahawks’ secondary has been a punching bag recently with seven passing TDs allowed and only one interception over the last three games. The encouraging part is the Seahawks were able to force an INT on Brock Purdy last week, someone who has been nearly mistake-free for the majority of the season.
Another reason to be optimistic on this prop is the Seahawks' pass-defended rate is above average despite only nine INTs this year. They have 62 total passes defended in 13 games, which ranks 11th in NFL and also ranks eighth in total sacks. If Seattle’s defensive line is able to generate pressure, that should allow this young secondary to poach an INT on an eventual bad throw from Hurts.
I had this prop closer to +110, so I'll play +135 every time.
Pick: Jalen Hurts To Throw INT (+135)
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