Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game. That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “YES” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus-odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into this week. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus-odds. Continue below for my NFL Week 6 interception props.
Caleb Williams
To Throw Interception (-115)
Another London game, another interception bet. Last week, we took QB Sam Darnold to throw a pick and he didn’t disappoint. This week, we’re going to another USC-alum, and it’s rookie QB Caleb Williams at -115.
Williams has started to look the part with 300+ passing yards in two of the last three games to go along with five passing touchdowns. Last week, he was facing an abysmal Panthers secondary but this time, he’s on the road against an underrated Jacksonville secondary. Williams has thrown all four of his interceptions on the road this year.
Jacksonville is one of three teams that have yet to force an interception but still have 21 passes defended. Of the 17 teams with 20 or more passes defended, Jacksonville is the only team yet to force an interception. I hate to use “they’re due” as the reasoning, but the Jags should see some positive regression on that front given they play Man Coverage at a top rate in the NFL.
For what it’s worth, in his career, Jags quarterback Trevor Lawrence has played four times in London and each time, the opposing QB threw an interception.
Baker Mayfield
To Throw Interception (-105)
The Baker Mayfield renaissance has been awesome for touchdown props but because of the increase of the Bucs' pass attempts, Mayfield is also a good target for interception props, especially in a divisional matchup against this tough Saints defense.
The Saints have been forcing turnovers like crazy with nine in five games (ranked sixth) and seven total interceptions (ranked third). They’ve forced the opposing quarterback to throw an interception in all five games, and that’s likely because they're seventh in Hurry Rate per Dropback (11.4%) which forces quarterbacks to make quick decisions. It also helps that they’re fourth in total passes defended (27) and fifth in Interception Rate per Dropback (3.8%).
Mayfield has only thrown two picks this year, but I think we’re getting a bit of a discount in this spot at -105 because of how good the passing offense looked vs Atlanta and Philadelphia. The Saints are a bit of an upgrade.
Coming into the season, my colleague Dr. Nick Giffen was high on Mayfield to regress this year and had bet his season-long INT prop at over 10.5. If he’s going to cash that future, the interceptions need to start coming in and this is a perfect game for Mayfield to turn it over, especially against a team that he had three of his 10 interceptions against last season.
