Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game. That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all NFL interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “Yes” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus-odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into this week. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus-odds. Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 7.
Jared Goff
To Throw Interception (-120)
The allure of betting every opposing quarterback that faces the Vikings' defense has taken over. I don’t care that Lions QB Jared Goff hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3, this is a great matchup to cash in.
The Vikings' defense could be considered a bit “lucky” with all the interceptions they’ve generated through five games (11), but sometimes good defenses can create their own luck. The Vikings rank first in nearly every defensive category I look at, with 41 passes defended, 41% blitz rate, 32.6% pressure rate and 13.2% hurry rate. It’s like they’re playing with 12 players on defense.
This could spell bad news for Goff because when he sees pressure, that tends to be when he becomes turnover prone. Of his four interceptions this year, three came while facing the blitz and pressure. This was also similar last season when six of Goff’s 12 INTs came against the blitz and nine of those came under pressure.
Many of the reasons I like Goff to throw an interception this week apply to Sam Darnold as well, which is why I also like him to thrown a pick at -115. My projected odds for Darnold are -125, while I have Goff at -140. So if you want to bet both, I wouldn't be mad at it, but I prefer Goff at this price.
Matthew Stafford
To Throw Interception (+115)
I don’t want to make this bet as simple as “he’s plus-money,” but that's pretty much what it is. Rams QB Matt Stafford has played five games this season and his INT odds were -140, -135, -145, -125, -135, BYE and now here we are.
I have tracked the QB INT odds for every quarterback since 2022 and Stafford has played 29 games during that span. He has only been listed at plus-money once during that stretch, which was Week 17 in 2023 vs. the Giants, a game he was listed at +100 odds to throw an INT, and he went on to throw two interceptions in a narrow 26-25 win.
For as bad as the Raiders defense can look, they’re not terrible when it comes to defending the pass. They have 26 passes defended so far this season, which ranks ninth in NFL and they rank top-five in blitz rate. Stafford has thrown all three of his INTs this season when facing pressure.
The big reason why this is priced at plus-odds is because the Raiders haven't forced an INT since Week 2, and the Rams may not need to throw much if they can control the game on the ground with RB Kyren Williams.
I would argue the Raiders are a bit unlucky to only have two interceptions, given they’ve faced QBs like Bo Nix, Andy Dalton and Justin Fields, who all had their fair share of bad throws throughout those games. With WR Cooper Kupp expected back, you know Stafford is going to want to throw more, so I’ll take the bait and bank on him turning it over on one of those tosses.
