Betting on quarterback ineptitude is one of my NFL guilty pleasures. I especially like back-breaking interceptions that completely flip the momentum of the game. That’s why I’m diving headfirst into the quarterback interception market to identify key spots each week to cash in on quarterback miscues.
It’s worth noting that I track all NFL interception props from each quarterback (Yes and No) and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on “Yes” when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). In 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus-money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 87-91 for +17.2U. This was after it went 81-75 for +25.5U in 2022. So far in 2024, it’s 8-4 for +4.6U.
In 2024, we’re seeing far less quarterbacks with plus-odds to throw an interception, with only seven heading into this week. This means we may need to consider “No” as an option or delve into minus-odds. Continue below for my NFL interception props for Week 8.
Jared Goff
To Throw Interception (+160)
I bet on Jared Goff to throw an interception last week in a way better matchup, and promptly got kicked in the groin. Goff finished 22 for 25 passing, no interceptions and carved up the Vikings secondary. However, last week, he was -120 to throw a pick. This week, he’s +160.
This is an odds-play that we have to grab, even if the data points to an easy passing day for Goff.
Goff has been plus-money in two games this year to throw an interception, and that was Week 1 vs Rams (+110) and Week 2 vs Bucs (+120). He went on to throw an INT in both of those games (three total).
Part of the reasoning why we are grabbing Goff is the value. When he’s minus-odds, sure, there’s still a decent chance of him throwing an interception, but the upside of profitability isn’t quite there. Our head of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, is showing an 11.4% edge in the market for “Yes.”
Look, when you go through the data, the Titans might be one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. They’re last in passes defended, bottom-five in pressure rate and hurry rate, along with only one interception forced this season, which came against Colts QB Joe Flacco.
The stars don’t align all the time with data, but sometimes it is just the “luck” factor. At this price, we have to take a stab on the possibility of Goff making a mistake.
Josh Allen
To Throw Interception (-115)
I think I’ve talked myself into the idea of a Josh Allen interception in each of the last three weeks, but didn’t end up firing on it. This game against Seattle presents a decent opportunity for INT bettors looking to fade the Bills' QB.
Allen has finished top-2 in the NFL in interceptions in each of the last three seasons but we’re entering Week 8 with him still having none, which is wild. He threw an INT in every road game he played last year, and now he’s going to arguably the toughest road environment in the league at Lumen Field in Seattle.
Here’s why I think Allen throws his first interception of the season this week:
Allen hasn’t had to face much pressure this year with opponents only generating pressure on 36% of his dropbacks, and only one of the Bills opponents ranking in the top-10 in pressure rate (Jets).
Well, this week, he faces the Seahawks, who rank No. 1 in pressure rate (30.9%) and top-five in sacks (20). I mention this because when Allen was having turnover issues last season, he threw nine of his 12 interceptions while facing pressure and had a much worse QB rating (70.6).
This could be a tough day throwing the ball for him, and now with the addition of WR Amari Cooper, there may be some inherent pressure from within the Bills to throw a bit more too.
Something’s gotta give here. While I still expect Allen to make his plays, throw downfield, and truck some opponents, there’s a decent chance we see the old Josh Allen who will eventually force a throw he shouldn’t. At -115, I’m willing to take a bite of this apple.
